Executive Summary

COCO delivered a clean beat and raise: Q3 revenue $182.3M (+37% YoY) and diluted EPS $0.40, both ahead of S&P Global consensus*, driven by +42% branded Vita Coco Coconut Water growth and Treats rollout, with consolidated gross margin of 37.7% (down ~110 bps YoY on tariffs/finished goods costs) .
Full-year 2025 guidance raised: net sales to $580–$595M (from $565–$580M), Adjusted EBITDA to $90–$95M (from $86–$92M); GM maintained ~36%, SG&A growth raised to high-single digits reflecting brand investment .
Management highlighted tariff headwinds intensifying (blended rate ~23% on ~60% of global COGS exiting Q3) with mitigation levers (pricing, supply rerouting from Brazil, lower ocean freight) and potential waiver prospects; pricing decisions for 2026 contingent on Q1-26 tariff clarity .
International momentum accelerated (U.K., Germany); U.S. distribution poised to improve with Walmart reset in mid-November; Treats attracting new consumers without evident cannibalization—incremental distribution expected in 2026 .
Stock reaction catalysts: material top-line and EPS beat, raised FY revenue/EBITDA, and narrative on tariff mitigation and Walmart shelf gains.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Branded outperformance and category momentum: Net sales +37% to $182M; Vita Coco Coconut Water +42% YoY on strong category growth and execution; CE volume +31% for branded coconut water .
- “Coconut water remains one of the fastest growing categories… 22% YTD in the U.S. and 32% in the U.K.” — Executive Chairman Mike Kirban .
Guidance raised on strong demand and execution: FY25 net sales $580–$595M and Adjusted EBITDA $90–$95M; management confident in sustaining momentum into 2026 .
- “Our increased full year net sales guidance is based on this momentum… Even though… tariffs have increased… our strong topline growth and operational execution supports our raise of our full year adjusted EBITDA guidance.” — CEO Martin Roper .
International acceleration: International segment net sales +48% in Q3, with strong U.K./Germany growth and share gains; margins supported by lower ocean freight into Europe .

What Went Wrong

Gross margin pressure: Consolidated GM 37.7% vs 38.8% LY on higher finished goods costs and ~$6M tariff impact in Q3; SG&A +$10M YoY on marketing and people costs .
Tariffs escalating: Blended U.S. import tariff rate ~23% exiting Q3 (before Brazil 50% mitigation), applied to ~60% of global COGS; FY25 COGS headwind $14–$16M, peaking in late Q4 .
Private label mixed: Americas PL -13% in Q3; overall PL up 6% on international strength; management expects PL to remain a slight drag into 2026 despite regained regions commentary .

Financial Results

Headline Metrics

Metric	Q3 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Net Sales ($USD Millions)	$132.9	$130.9	$168.8	$182.3
Diluted EPS ($)	$0.32	$0.31	$0.38	$0.40
Gross Margin (%)	38.8%	36.7%	36.3%	37.7%
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions, non‑GAAP)	$22.9	$22.5	$29.2	$32.4
Net Income ($USD Millions)	$19.3	$18.9	$22.9	$24.0

Notes: Non‑GAAP definitions and reconciliations in the company’s releases .

Q3 2025 vs Consensus (S&P Global)

Metric	Consensus*	Actual	Beat/Miss
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$156.2*	$182.3	Beat
Diluted EPS ($)	$0.296*	$0.40	Beat

*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Net Sales (Q3)

Segment / Product	Q3 2024 ($M)	Q3 2025 ($M)
Americas – Vita Coco Coconut Water	$94.0	$132.4
Americas – Private Label	$16.5	$14.4
Americas – Other (incl. Treats)	$1.7	$4.9
International – Vita Coco Coconut Water	$14.9	$21.9
International – Private Label	$4.8	$8.1
International – Other	$1.0	$0.5
Total	$132.9	$182.3

KPIs (Case Equivalent Volume YoY, Q3 Autocalculated by Company)

KPI	Americas	International	Total
Vita Coco Coconut Water CE Volume %	30.3%	35.9%	31.2%
Private Label CE Volume %	(11.7%)	71.1%	8.3%
Other CE Volume %	236.6%	(73.5%)	195.8%
Subtotal CE Volume %	25.4%	44.1%	28.8%

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Net Sales	FY 2025	$565–$580M	$580–$595M	Raised
Gross Margin	FY 2025	~36%	~36%	Maintained (tariff context updated)
SG&A Growth	FY 2025	Low–mid single digits vs 2024	High‑single digits vs 2024	Raised
Adjusted EBITDA	FY 2025	$86–$92M	$90–$95M	Raised

Management reiterated uncertainty tied to evolving tariff rates and potential competitive pricing actions .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Q1 2025 (Prior)	Q2 2025 (Prior)	Q3 2025 (Current)	Trend
Tariffs / Macro	Outlook excluded delayed reciprocal tariffs; reaffirmed FY guide	Guide included 10% baseline tariffs; excluded additional announced tariffs not yet implemented	Blended ~23% tariff rate on ~60% of COGS exiting Q3; FY tariff COGS +$14–$16M; Brazil 50% tariff mitigation efforts; potential waivers/lobbying underway	Escalating headwind with mitigation
Supply Chain / Freight	Stronger inventory position to start year	Higher average transportation costs vs 2024 in outlook	Ocean freight softened through Q3 and post‑quarter; primarily on spot; benefits expected to flow in 2026 depending on inventory turns	Improving freight offset
Product Performance	Coconut water +25% globally; Treats rollout started late Q1	Coconut water +25%; Treats national rollout in U.S.	Coconut water +42% in Q3; Treats driving “Other”; new consumers, acceptable repeats; more distribution targeted in 2026	Accelerating
Regional Trends	Strong in U.K. and Germany	International +43%	Int’l +48%; U.S. +; category growth: U.S. +22%, U.K. +32%, Germany >100% (retail data)	Broadening strength
Retail / Walmart Set	–	–	Walmart reset mid‑Nov; expected TPD gains vs prior juice‑aisle set; visibility on shelf allocation still evolving	Distribution catalyst
Private Label	Softness expected; mix shift to branded	PL decline; guide assumed softness	Q3 PL +6% overall (Americas down, Int’l up); regions expected to be regained in 2026; more inbound interest amid competitor service issues	Mixed, recovery in 2026

Management Commentary

“Coconut water remains one of the fastest growing categories… Vita Coco Coconut Water maintaining strong retail sales growth rates in the United States and our core international markets.” — Executive Chairman Mike Kirban .
“We are operating primarily on spot [ocean freight]… lower rates to benefit our P&L probably early next year… For 2026, the most difficult element to predict is the applicable U.S. tariffs.” — CEO Martin Roper .
“Our current weighted average tariff rate… is… approximately 23%… applied to approximately 60% of our global cost of goods… We are developing and executing plans to divert some of our Brazil production to Canada and Europe and to cover U.S. demand more completely from Asia.” — CEO Martin Roper .
“We are waiting on competitive actions… We don’t feel in a rush to mitigate further the tariffs [with more pricing]… We’re thinking we’ll make pricing decisions in Q1 that might take effect Q2.” — CFO Corey Baker .

Q&A Highlights

Q4 cadence and sequential revenue: Management emphasized tougher Q4 comp due to last year’s inventory rebuild and timing of a large U.S. club promotion that skewed scans into late Q3/early Q4; encouraged focus on two‑year stacks; distributor inventories are “healthy” exiting Q3 .
Tariff timing and mitigation: August tariff impact minimal in Q3; blended 23% begins to hit late Q4; mitigation via supply rerouting away from Brazil (packaging/approvals 3–9 months), potential to reduce blended rate toward ~20% by end of 2026 if 50% Brazil tariff persists; potential waivers/lobbying ongoing .
Private label strategy: Strategic complement to brand; competitive advantages in diversified supply chain and service; regained some regions, more expected in 2026; PL likely still a slight drag next year .
Ocean freight vs tariff impact: Freight softening helps, but management cautioned not to overestimate freight in COGS; transportation ~one‑third of COGS historically with ocean a subset; tariffs remain larger incremental headwind .
Capital allocation and Treats: >$200M cash, no debt; priorities: core growth, innovation, disciplined M&A; buybacks when appropriate; Treats showing acceptable repeats, incremental brand entry; additional distribution expected in 2026 (e.g., Walmart) .

Estimates Context

Q3 2025 beat vs S&P Global consensus*: revenue $182.3M vs $156.2M*, diluted EPS $0.40 vs $0.296*; magnitude driven by strong coconut water demand, restored U.S. club promotion, and improved inventory positioning .
Street may raise FY revenue and Adjusted EBITDA to new guidance ranges; modelers should incorporate: (1) maintained ~36% GM for FY despite late‑Q4 tariff step‑up, (2) higher SG&A run‑rate (brand investments, people costs), and (3) sequential Q4 sales step‑down due to comp/timing and private label softness .