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CORCEPT THERAPEUTICS INC (CORT)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q2 revenue of $194.4M grew 18.7% year over year but modestly missed consensus ($199.4M, -2.5%); diluted EPS of $0.29 beat consensus ($0.19) on a lighter tax expense and operating leverage .*
- 2025 revenue guidance was lowered to $850–$900M (from $900–$950M), driven by specialty pharmacy capacity constraints and slower patient starts; second pharmacy expected to contribute beginning in Q4 .
- Commercial momentum remains strong: tablets shipped rose 49% YoY; authorized generic (AG) adoption reached ~two-thirds of business with ~30% average price discount vs Korlym’s list price, pressuring ASPs but expanding reach .
- Strategic catalysts: relacorilant NDAs in hypercortisolism (PDUFA Dec 30, 2025) and platinum-resistant ovarian cancer submitted in July; management positioning relacorilant as the next standard of care across endocrinology and oncology .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Strong commercial demand: “record number of new prescribers and a record number of new patients receiving treatment,” with tablets shipped up 49% YoY, underscoring market expansion in hypercortisolism .
- Pipeline milestones: NDA submitted for relacorilant in platinum-resistant ovarian cancer; hypercortisolism NDA review ongoing with Dec 30 PDUFA; GRACE/GRADIENT/CATALYST results published/presented in top venues, strengthening regulatory case .
- Operating improvement versus Q1: income from operations rose to $26.7M vs $3.4M in Q1 on higher revenue and scaling; diluted EPS advanced to $0.29 from $0.17 .
What Went Wrong
- Guidance cut: FY25 revenue lowered to $850–$900M due to pharmacy fulfillment delays; Q2 impact estimated at ~$15M, with effects flowing through titration and cohort build .
- Revenue miss vs consensus: Q2 product revenue of $194.4M was ~$5.0M below Street; AG mix reached ~two-thirds with ~30% average discount, pressuring pricing and revenue trajectory .*
- Elevated OpEx: SG&A rose to $103.9M from $66.9M YoY as the commercial organization scaled (145 clinical specialists vs ~60 in 2024, targeted 175 by year-end), compressing YoY EPS despite volume strength .
Financial Results
Guidance Changes
Rationale: specialty pharmacy capacity constraints delayed patient starts and titration, with incremental capacity ramping through H2 and a second pharmacy expected to contribute in Q4 .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Our financial results don’t fully reflect this surge in demand, which outpaced our specialty pharmacy vendor’s capacity. We expect improved performance by our current vendor, as well as contribution from a second pharmacy… and have modified our 2025 revenue guidance to $850 – $900 million.” — CEO Joseph K. Belanoff .
- “We shipped more tablets to patients than ever before, 49% more than the second quarter last year… Increased pharmacy capacity is important because I am certain our growth is poised to accelerate.” — Endocrinology President Sean Madhu .
- “We submitted relacorilant’s NDA in platinum-resistant ovarian cancer earlier this month… Physicians have responded with great enthusiasm… improving PFS and OS without an added safety burden.” — CEO prepared remarks on ROSELLA .
- “Relacorilant has been well tolerated… no instances of drug induced hypokalemia, endometrial hypertrophy, vaginal bleeding, adrenal insufficiency, or QT prolongation.” — CEO on safety profile .
Q&A Highlights
- AG mix and pricing: AG now ~two-thirds of business; average ~30% discount vs Korlym list price; transition stabilizing near year-end (~two-thirds) .
- Fulfillment and guidance: Q2 revenue impact ~$15M; delays extend cohort build and titration, warranting guidance reduction despite second pharmacy starting in Q4 .
- BELLA timeline and oncology expansion: BELLA enrollment “by end of this year,” results ~1 year thereafter; exploring broader use in gynecologic cancers and combinations (including immunotherapy) with no expected overlapping toxicity .
- ALS regulatory path: FDA/EMA meetings scheduled; options include approval based on existing survival data (unusual) or confirmatory trial; plan update post-meetings .
- Patent appeal: Oral arguments completed; decision timing uncertain; management emphasizes relacorilant’s trajectory over Korlym litigation outcomes .
Estimates Context
- Q2 takeaways: revenue miss (
$5.0M, -2.5%) and EPS beat ($0.10), reflecting operational leverage and tax benefit amid ASP pressure and fulfillment constraints .* - FY25 Street baselines: Revenue $819.3M*, EPS $1.00*, EBITDA $216.5M* (directionally below prior company guidance range before modification).*
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Guidance Changes
Drivers: fulfillment delays prolong patient starts/titration; second pharmacy expected to ramp in Q4, with vendor improvements through H2 .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
(See thematic table above)
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Demand remains robust; fulfillment capacity is the gating factor. Watch Q4 for second pharmacy impact and sequential acceleration in revenue conversion .
- Mix/price headwinds are real (AG ~two-thirds; ~30% discount), but volume growth and relacorilant transition potential underpin medium-term margin recovery .
- Two near-term regulatory catalysts: hypercortisolism PDUFA (Dec 30, 2025) and ovarian cancer NDA review initiation; commercial infrastructure is scaling to support launches .
- Oncology franchise could expand beyond pROC, including earlier lines and combinations; BELLA enrollment pace suggests physician enthusiasm—monitor timelines and label scope .
- Litigation outcome with Teva is a near/intermediate variable; strategic emphasis is shifting to relacorilant where IP and clinical data are stronger .
- Near-term trading: Q3 likely reflects ongoing capacity ramp; estimate revisions may drift lower on revenue while EPS resilience could persist given tax/opex phasing. A clean Q4 capacity inflection is the positive setup .
- Medium-term thesis: relacorilant adoption in hypercortisolism and oncology (with strong safety and efficacy signals) can re-rate the story from Korlym/AG dynamics to multi-indication growth .
Notes: All document-derived figures and quotes are cited. Asterisks indicate consensus estimate values; Values retrieved from S&P Global.*