Coty - Q2 2024 (Q&A)

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Hello, my name is Todd, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Coty's second quarter fiscal 2024 question-and-answer conference call. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded today, February 8, 2024 at 8:15 A.M. Eastern or 2:15 P.M. Central European Time. Please note that on February 7, at approximately 4:30 P.M. Eastern Time or 10:30 P.M. Central European Time, Coty issued a press release and prepared remarks webcast, which can be found on its Investor Relations website. On today's call are Sue Nabi, Chief Executive Officer, and Laurent Mercier, Chief Financial Officer. I would like to remind you that many of the comments today may contain forward-looking statements.

Please refer to Coty's earnings release and the reports filed with the SEC for the company list factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements. In addition, except where noted, the discussion of Coty's financial results and Coty's expectations reflect certain adjustments as specified in the non-GAAP financial measurements section of the company's press release. With that, we will now open the line for questions. If you would like to ask a question at this time, please press star one on your telephone keypad. You may remove yourself at any time by pressing star two. Once again, that is star and one to ask a question. Our first question will come from Rob Ottenstein with Evercore. Please go ahead.

Rob Ottenstein (Senior Managing Director)

Thank you very much, and congratulations on another terrific quarter. So, Sue, your outperformance in Prestige Fragrances was really impressive. Two questions on that. How much of that outperformance is attributable to new brand launches? And then second, as the Prestige Fragrance market normalizes, can you continue your outperformance? And if so, what gives you the confidence to be able to do that? Thank you.

Sue Nabi (CEO)

Yes, good morning, Rob. Thank you very much for your kind words. Indeed, it's a very good quarter, specifically, driven by the Prestige performance. You know, the outperformance in this division has been achieved thanks to a very good, I have to say, balance of new launches and strong performance of the base business, which is also supported by the halo from the launches. If I take the example of Burberry Goddess or Burberry as a brand, all the three lines are growing. The one that is, by definition, new, Burberry Goddess, biggest launch ever at Coty, top 1 fragrance innovation around the world, while at the same time, Burberry Her, which is a few years old, or Burberry Hero, which is 2.5 years old, are also growing.

So in fact, this, I would say, outstanding performance we're having behind our innovations is also benefiting other brands. Some other brands of the portfolio, I'm thinking about Calvin Klein or, Davidoff are also growing double digits without new innovation. So in a way, it's really a good balance between innovation and base business, if I may call it like this. And what gives us the confidence in this outperformance, in, this market that's going to normalize, still is going to be a mid to high single-digit growth, which is far above, you know, what was the case just a few years ago. But the, the confidence we're having it from a lot of capabilities we have been able to build, during the last three years.

Capabilities to build blockbusters, be it in terms of creating winning juices, creating winning mixers, finding the right balance between influencer marketing, classical media, sampling, et cetera. All this is a know-how that's here to stay and here to develop. It's also a confidence that we are taking from our still wide space opportunities, geographically speaking, but also wide space opportunities in terms of categories. So all of these give us a confidence that we will hopefully continue to outperform this very dynamic market.

Rob Ottenstein (Senior Managing Director)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Oliver Chen with TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

Oliver Chen (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Hi, Sue and Laurent. You made so much nice progress regarding prices, and you mentioned targeted pricing going forward. Could you speak to what you mean there in terms of the opportunities as you surgically analyze that? Also, Sue, e-commerce impressively drove 40% of your like-for-like sales growth. What do you see ahead in terms of embracing that channel and the centers of excellence and community and TikTok innovation as well?

Laurent Mercier (CFO)

Yeah. Yeah, thank you, thank you, Oliver, for your question. So on pricing, as you know, I mean, we explained several times over the last quarter that we implemented price increases mid-single-digit, and this is also what we did beginning of fiscal 2024. So this price increase was very successful. It went very smoothly, and you see that it translates, you know, that we still are growing volumes. So this was really very good execution, very precise, very granular, and indeed it worked very well. So now, looking ahead, indeed, I indicated that we will continue very targeted price increases.

So definitely because all the work that we are doing, value creation, you know, it, it allows, right?

... on specific products, specific markets, specific channels, still to pass some price increase. So this we will continue, but of course it will be more moderate and very, very targeted. But definitely where we are going to focus even more now is more on the mix and what we are calling really a stream that we are pushing, and we explained last time, is Strategic Revenue Management, which is really to review the full value that we are creating for retailers and for consumers, and definitely focusing on increasing the price per unit. I give you some examples. The innovation that Sue was referring to, for example, Burberry Goddess. Burberry Goddess is, you know, the number one innovation on the market.

It is eau de parfum, and eau de parfum is on average 30% higher price versus eau de toilette. So you see, this is concrete example that now when we are launching new initiative, we are working really in-depth to make sure that this is at, you know, a higher value versus the base business. It is also the case in consumer beauty. Great innovation that we just launched, you know, Simply Ageless Essence. And same, this is a, you know, high quality, very premium product with a price which is a 30% higher versus the base business, and it is a number one on Amazon.

So you understand this is really this work on improving the price per unit because there is value quality in the product, optimizing also the all the trade terms, reducing promotions. So it's really this way that now we are really moving toward the strategic revenue management approach, mixed improvement, and we have already strong examples. And I can tell you definitely the work and all the initiatives that are in place, we really continue to this journey. So that's why also it you know, it's one of the big driver of our gross margin expansion in H2. Definitely combined with inflation softening and definitely in addition of carryover pricing from last year, and also all these strategic revenue management elements. So that's a very clear path that we have ahead of us.

Sue Nabi (CEO)

And then on the second part of your question, this is Sue speaking. So how are we embracing e-com, digital, community management, TikTok, et cetera? Indeed, the performance of e-com during the quarter has been outstanding. As you said it before, 40% of the growth in both division comes from e-com. This is really, you know, an unprecedented level of performance, I have to say. It's 180 basis points, extra penetration in this channel, 20% of growth. And it's quite, I would say, obvious to explain this, thanks to the strategy that we have put in place, and I explained this several times now, since a year and a half, of, you know, putting advocacy at the center of our, you know, social media strategy.

I can give you the example that Laurent was mentioning, which is a Simply Ageless Essence foundation, which is a very innovative product. It's a serum, transparent serum, and you can see capsules of pigment in the serum, and they burst on the skin when you apply them. So this is typically the very kind of product that TikTok and any social media is crazy about because it's very visual in the packaging. There is a transformation onto your skin. Something happens, and the result is that it's number one on Amazon already, just after a few weeks. And it has been given to the hands of a mega influencer that we were referring to during the presentation. We had 95 million views. Can you imagine?

One post, 95 million views, $10 million of EMV, which is the total EMV of CoverGirl in the U.S. a year ago for 12 months. So you can see that this transformation of our consumer beauty business from a business that was relying on, I would say, a low level of innovation in terms of percentages, maybe not enough disruptive innovation, but with the right benefits, into a business where we are going to double down the level of innovation, disruptive visual innovation, together hand in hand with strong advocacy marketing. This translates into this performance that you are seeing, which is obviously driven by Amazon. And to finish on this point, because I guess the question will come at a moment or another, our advocacy plan is really evolving very fast.

You've seen the two studios we have opened in the U.S. You've seen how much we moved from a few hundred of influencers with whom we were working just a year ago, to 5,000 today, and the intention is to go double this, triple this, who knows? So at the end of the day, this is just a starting point. For me, this is next to fragrances, this is the biggest white space opportunity for our color cosmetics brands in the U.S., but also around the world.

Oliver Chen (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

It's very exciting. Thank you. Best regards. I got to get some of that Simply Ageless. Ageless, it looks awesome. Thank you.

Sue Nabi (CEO)

Yes, yes, you'll love it, I'm sure. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Filippo Falorni with Citi. Please go ahead.

Filippo Falorni (Director of Equity Research)

Filippo, good morning. I want to talk on, on margins for the second half. You're expecting stronger gross margin expansion, the cost inflation moderate. Maybe, Laurent, you can give us some help also below the gross margin line, what reinvestment are you assuming in the second half, and whether you still expect 10-30 basis points of EBITDA margin expansion in the second half? Thank you.

Laurent Mercier (CFO)

... Yeah, thank you. Thank you, Filippo. So, first of all, indeed, I am really reaffirming that we confirm indeed our guidance, EBITDA margin growing at 10-30 basis points. So this is really confirming that, you know, the right dynamic after growing 40 basis points that we did in Q2. So indeed, on H2, the model is that indeed, we are going to benefit from gross margin expansion, a significant gross margin expansion, which is really a combination of COGS inflation softening. This is definitely a big element, but it's also helped by the carryover of price increase that we did last year, and we did beginning of this fiscal year.

So it's also all the work we are doing on mix, and last but not least, of course, is all the work we are doing on productivity as part of our All-in-to-Win. So this is definitely all these drivers are in motion. We keep investing, definitely on all, you know, the strategic initiatives and all the drivers, consumer beauty, and prestige. So this is definitely, and I confirm again that we will land our A&P level in the high twenties. So the model is fully on track.

Now, to be more specific on H2, what we are also including in our model is that we are factoring that now we see Forex turning slightly negative in H2, okay, versus positive in H1, but on a full year, it should be pretty neutral, but there is a phasing effect due to Forex. And another element that you need also to take into account that as we have headwind effect from Lacoste exit, which is impacting mostly H2. So if you take all these elements into consideration, you see that we continue to have a very nice EBITDA margin improvement on both semester and definitely on the full year, you know, confirming this 10-40 basis points.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question will come from Olivia Tong with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Olivia Tong (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Great, thanks. Good morning. I wanted to ask you about the innovation pipeline and prestige fragrances, if maybe you can give us early unveiling of some of the plans for the next 12 months. Obviously, fantastic performance of late, but that clearly remains more difficult comps are coming. So just thinking through, you know, the number of blockbuster launches, how should we think about the focus areas over the next 12 months versus the last 12? Thank you.

Sue Nabi (CEO)

Yes. Good morning, Olivia. Thank you for your question. So in fact, the reality is that if you look back at, you know, what we did in 2022, which was a year with a big pipeline of innovations, you've seen the results we got in 2023, and this with constraint on supply, and they were very, very good. So in fact, the big difference between the Coty of years ago and the Coty of today, is that we are able to grow innovations across several years, instead of launching and looking for something new and then adding these new things to the portfolio, and having a plus and a minus story.

So we are growing all innovations at the same time, while we are bringing innovations from the past, I mean, at the same time, while we are bringing new innovations. So when it comes to upcoming innovations, we will continue, of course, to put on the market when we are ready and what we believe is going to be successful on the market. This is also a discipline we have put in place in the company since 2.5 years, which is to launch if and only if we are ready, we have the right mix, we are 100% sure about the success we're going to put on the market. Remember, Goddess, I started to talk about Goddess before we launched it.

We started to say, everyone, this is going to be big, and it's confirmed, and this is because we have now all the expertise and capabilities and understanding that allow us to say this is ready to become a big innovation, or it's not ready, we should take a bit more time. So of course, I'm not going to reveal what's going to arrive. I guess that our competitors are going to read the transcript, so it's not a good idea.

Olivia Tong (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Fair enough. And then my, my next question is just around China and travel retail. Obviously, your results have been very strong as you continue building out your businesses there. So can you just talk through, some of the mentality and the plans there? How much of your product lineup that you intend to introduce there is already deployed, and whether any of the recent macro challenges have impacted your ability to sort of reach the longer term goals you have for, for the market, both in China and travel retail? And then just lastly, you know, you, you've started the, the skincare expansion in China, right, after Orveda, fantastic brands, you know, obviously, the launch in Shanghai with Orveda. If you could just talk through your plans there a little bit more, that would be fantastic. Thanks so much.

Sue Nabi (CEO)

Yes, yes, Olivia, thank you for the question. So let me start with travel retail. You know, we finished fiscal 2023 with 30% of growth in travel retail, and the first half of fiscal 2024 is adding an extra 20% growth in this channel. This is really a channel where we are consistently gaining market share since now a few years in a row. And this is thanks, of course, to the, of course, the power of our innovations. Remember, Burberry Goddess started first as an, as an exclusive in travel retail last summer, which really is helping us to, you know, put on the market innovations that are tested in a way among, consumers in this channel that we believe are amongst the, most expert.

Second thing is that we are moving from a business that used to be just three years ago, an entry prestige, solidly, fragrance-focused business into a triple axis business today with fragrances, makeup, skincare, and inside fragrances. We are now playing in the three tiers on the market, entry prestige-premium brands, but also niche and high-end fragrances with our outstanding performance behind a brand like Chloé Atelier des Fleurs. So this channel is clearly a channel where we intend to continue because it's very dilutive in our equation, as you know it, and we don't see in our figures any kind of slowdown in the pace of travel of consumers around the world. So this is one for travel retail. Now, second, in China.

So in China, we had also a very good performance, specifically driven by Prestige, which is the immense majority of our net revenue. We just got the beauty research figures about the sellouts during, you know, the quarter ending in December, and Coty is 30 points above the market, so we are doing very well. This is driven mainly by our fragrances, be it Burberry, be it, you know, the other collections that we have in the line, so Atelier des Fleurs, et cetera. So this is clearly an area where we have the first white space is fragrances and even the small size of the company in that country, which leads me a segue to skincare. You rightly said that we opened the first Maison Orveda in Shanghai.

It's really a very different strategy we are, you know, doing behind this brand. We don't want to get in the game of, you know, over promotionality, becoming the favorite brand of daigous. This is not where we want to take our highest-end brands, and you can understand why. So that's the reason why we are experimenting new ways of doing this, mastering 100% of the brand image and equity, mastering how to sell directly to consumers in the environment of a maison. That's everything, but just a point of sale. The maison is really a place where you will be able, if you visit Shanghai, of course, to experiment the products, to have facials, but also to discover how to eat, to discover how to take care of your skin, but also to, maybe, discover pieces of art.

So we are really learning this part of the market that we believe is the next frontier for the beauty industry in general. There was, you know, a study done by McKinsey recently, which said that the luxury market is $360 billion. The beauty is just taking a small fraction of this. You know, what we call a real luxury and ultra-luxury is clearly the next frontier for a company like ours, on top of everything we are doing very well today. So this is for Orveda. The start of the brand over there is very, very good. We have the right consumers reaching out, the high net worth and ultra-high net worth individuals.

In a way, this gives me the occasion to say that this brand got what we consider as the Oscar of the beauty industry, which is the Prix d'Excellence Marie Claire International. It was awarded last week, and this is really a fantastic achievement for the brand. That's allowing the brand everywhere else in the U.S. at Saks, but also in the niche boutiques, where it's present in Europe, to multiply its productivity by two, by three, by four, by five, sometimes above this, and become sometimes a bigger seller than famous brands with double axis. So it's really something that's happening there, but we want to master the time of the expansion of the brand.

Now, coming to the second brand that we launched in April in China, it's Lancaster, and this one is doing also very well, and we are now adding a second leg to the brand. We did skincare, and now we are adding the sun care part to the skincare. Not that it was not there, but we were focusing our investments behind skincare, and we are realizing that by supporting both, we are increasing the productivity in a tremendous way. So everything is on track, but, and this but is very important, we are really taking advantage of the momentum we are seeing behind our fragrance business to take the right amount of time not to do any kind of mistake and transform our brands into daigou favorites. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question will come from Charles Scotti with Kepler. Please go ahead.

Charles Scotti (Managing Director and Head of Luxury Goods Equity Research)

Hi, good afternoon or good morning. I have two questions, please. The first one, on the ultra-premium fragrance market that is outgrowing the prestige segment. It seems that luxury brands are doubling down on this category. Could you share with us all the initiatives you have in place at the moment to tackle this, well, in my view, huge growth opportunity ahead? I'm aware of Chloé Atelier des Fleurs and Infiniment Coty, but are there any other, you know, initiatives in place to tackle this segment? And second question, on e-commerce, it seems that you are enjoying a very strong growth in the online channel. What's the growth broad-based between your DTC platform and also specialty retailers online business?

Could you remind us how e-commerce growth is impacting your growth and EBIT margin? Thank you.

Sue Nabi (CEO)

Okay, so let me start with the first question, which is around the ultra-premium fragrance market, which is outgrowing indeed the prestige fragrance underlying market. So there, you're right to mention Chloé Atelier des Fleurs, which we've been mentioning now since several quarters as the best-selling line, specifically in Asia and in travel retail. I can mention the collections behind each of our brands. You know, the Boss Collection is doing fantastically well in the Middle East, in Asia, in many travel retail locations. Burberry Signatures is doing very, very well in the different areas around the world. And you're right to mention, you know, the Infiniment Coty Paris line that's about to open its first store in the coming weeks. This is something that's really, I would say, the pride of the company.

Once you'll have the product in your hands, I'm sure you'll be totally surprised by everything you will experiment, from the packaging, the longevity of the scent, the at the same time originality of the scent, but also easy-to-wear scents. And everything we are doing behind this brand is the best of the know-how of the company. Sustainability is at the maximum we can do with refillable bottles, recyclable bottles, whatever is the right name. So this area is going to become the new playground of the company, if I may call it like this. And you were right to mention, are there anything upcoming? What I can reveal is what is public today, is the Marni new license that we have announced yesterday. This is a very premium fashion brand.

It's very young, it's colorful, it's avant-garde, it's one of the coolest brands today in Asia and in Europe. As you can imagine, this is going to be part of our agenda to really bring on the market very, very creative juices, very high positioning, but while at the same time being part of this fragrance market. That's what I can say about what I can reveal. Stay tuned. Hopefully, you'll see things coming soon in this area, too. When it comes to e-com, you're right to mention the very strong growth that I've been commenting earlier. This is broad-based across retail.com and pureplayer.com, in a way, huh? DTC part, which is the DTC behind our brands.

We have DTC behind our skincare brands. You think about Orveda, it's one of the biggest DTC platform we have at Coty, and this one is doing very well. The same way the brand has been growing during three quarters is driven by DTC. Same thing behind Orveda, where the DTC is growing here, again, triple-digit growth, if I'm, if I'm not wrong. So you can clearly see that this part is also growing, but indeed, the big part of this, in terms of net revenue, is coming from e-retailers. When it comes to the profitability, maybe, Laurent, you can say a few words about this?

Laurent Mercier (CFO)

Yeah, absolutely, and indeed, on the numbers, your question was also contribution to growth. So indeed, that, you know, this high 20% growth on e-commerce, in fact, contributes to 40% of the Q2 growth. So it means that, e-com penetration in our numbers is growing by 180 basis points. So you see, it's very, very healthy, and it's very healthy from a profitability standpoint, because indeed, e-com on all, all players, all channels, is strongly, margin accretive. So that's indeed part of our, you know, gross margin model and very positive for the equation.

Charles Scotti (Managing Director and Head of Luxury Goods Equity Research)

Thank you very much. Looking forward to seeing Coty in the coming weeks.

Sue Nabi (CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Anna Lizzul with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Jonathan Keypour (Vice President of Equity Research and Lead Analyst for US Consumer Staples)

Hi, thanks for the question. This is Jonathan Keypour we're on for, for Anna. I'm just want two questions. First, you mentioned in your prepared remarks, a more tempered consumer environment in China and, that you're making... You're tweaking to accommodate these changes. Just, just wondering if you could give us any, any details about the tweaks, given that economic, change in, in China? And then second, if you could go into any detail about, the digital marketing and social media activation, what kind of ROI you're seeing for this marketing spend so far, and, and how the, the engagement differs by demographic? Thank you.

Sue Nabi (CEO)

Yeah, thank you. Good morning, Jonathan. Thank you for your question. So indeed, when it comes to China, the reality is that we are. That's my intuition. And again, no studies around this, but everything we see, we hear, we read, says that we are in the middle of two eras. There was the era where promotionality, daigou, all this kind of way of buying, really created big buyers in this market. And people were waiting for these occasions, for all these sales, where people could buy anything that's very desirable at prices that do not work usually with desirability.

So this is something that lasted what it lasted, and now we are in a kind of era where it's, I would say, normalizing, where we are seeing the brands respecting more and more their own brand equity, protecting their brand equity, sometimes growing less fast than what they want to do. But that's healthy, I would say. And that's also a way to really make sure that the bad habits, if I may call it, of the past, are behind us. And even if Coty never went into this game, thank God, but this is something that we are really seeing, is that there is a shift, and consumers are waiting to see how brands are going to behave.

So for us, the 30 points above market performance we had in the quarter was really because we have the right brands, because we have the right desirability behind these brands, namely fragrance brands, that are really giving consumers value for money, but not discounted value for money, and that's a very important element. For me, that's the key element that changed between the story of the last 20 years and the upcoming story in the future. Now, when it comes to digital marketing and social media activation, maybe, Laurent, you can say a few words about the ROI of-

Laurent Mercier (CFO)

Yeah, absolutely. I mean, what I can tell you, I mean, definitely that, I mean, the ROI is much stronger, compared, you know, to the traditional media. And so, of course, there is no magic number. It depends on, you know, what is the activation, what is the launch, but this is definitely a, you know, a strong asset. And now we are really... You know, the work we have done also over the last years, was also to get the capability, and to get also the tools. Okay, so now we have a very strong digital team, well-equipped and definitely able to measure and really to focus our investments.

So this is definitely a strong improvement, and that's why we shared also that now majority of our A&CP investment now are really in digital and social media. So this is very powerful. We can really target by demographic. I would just highlight that as you can easily understand, that it's really very strong on Gen Z. And that's very powerful because this is also a way to increase penetration from Gen Z. But not only Gen Z, it has also a halo effect on also millennials. So it's really a very positive cycle, and for us, in terms of, you know, resource allocation, you know, a great move.

Sue Nabi (CEO)

To complement what Laurent and Jonathan on ROI, the best ROI we have is on the most disruptive products. It's good news because it's in our hands. It's our job to create exciting, desirable, innovative, new, different, better products, and once you have these products in the hands of consumers, you really start from a very high level of ROI, and the rest is all around expertise.

Jonathan Keypour (Vice President of Equity Research and Lead Analyst for US Consumer Staples)

Wonderful. Thank you.

Sue Nabi (CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Ashley Helgans with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Ashley Helgans (Senior Vice President and Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, good morning. Congrats on the ninth quarter. We just wanted to follow up on actually the prior question about the dynamic skincare market that you mentioned. So in China, are you seeing any, you know, trade down or shift in preference to more domestic brands? Thanks.

Sue Nabi (CEO)

So again, the shift towards domestic brands is indeed something that is happening, mainly on the mass market side, I have to say, since now several years. And we've seen some very famous mass market brands closing over there. This part of the business is very small at Coty. It's mainly Adidas that we are having, which is not considered as a mass market brand. Adidas is a kind of cool brand, a fashion brand, phenomenon, more or less, and we have Max Factor present on this market. But the reality is that the competition between international mass brands and local brands is fiercer than ever, and this is really a question mark for those who have big brands over there. Regarding prestige and skincare market, we don't see yet this.

There is a kind of cohabitation between local new players, specifically in the niche part of the market. You've seen some brands becoming more and more visible, created by Chinese founders, together at the same time as a desirable, I would say, consumption of international brands. A lot of them are with Coty. So I wouldn't say that I see this phenomenon happening in this part. Regarding the trading down, the trading down has been in China the case for many, many, I would say, quarters because of the promotionality of the market. It's not people moving from an expensive brand to a less expensive brand. It's people looking for a promotion to buy at cheaper costs.

So the only thing I can tell you is that the part that's still very resilient, be it in skincare or in fragrances in China, is the high-end and the higher-end of the market, and this is the one that's protected. So I wouldn't talk about trading down. I would talk about people chasing promotions. Let's see how long this will last.

Ashley Helgans (Senior Vice President and Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you so much.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question will come from Shivani Chowdhury with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Shivani Chowdhury (Equity Research Associate)

Hi, thank you for taking our question. Congrats on the impressive delivery in the first half, but it seems that you are assuming a steep deceleration. Can you please break down between volume and pricing? Is there any additional door or shelf space? And more specifically, do you see a pause to the fragrance index, especially in the prestige fragrances? And, too early to speak about fiscal 2025, but do you see any stimulus triggering outsized growth for Coty again? Thank you.

Laurent Mercier (CFO)

No, I can, and I think the fragrance, I can take it, and I want to be very clear, there is no deceleration. So we are talking about normalization, and again, to remind the members that Sue shared, I mean, definitely what we are seeing is prestige fragrance market being in the mid- to high-single-digit, and definitely Coty will continue to overperform this market. And then on consumer beauty, the assumptions we are making is low single digit to mid-single digit. And here also considering that Coty can really you know as the same dynamic. So there is no pause in fragrance index. The fragrance index is fully at play.

You see definitely, I mean, all the elements that Sue shared is really that there is really, you know, appetite for premiumization. You see, you know, the premium high-end is really booming. There are really penetration keeps growing in the U.S. and in China. So this is, I can tell you, you know, still a huge white space. So definitely there is still a lot to expect on fragrance index. So it will continue, and that's why, you know, we remain fully confident on our algorithm for H2 fiscal 2024 and beyond for fiscal 2025 and again beyond.

Operator (participant)

Thank you.

Shivani Chowdhury (Equity Research Associate)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question will come from Lauren Lieberman with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Lauren Lieberman (Managing Director and Senior U.S. Equity Research Analyst)

Great, thanks. Good morning. I was hoping we could go back to your original sales growth algorithm build to get to the 6%-8%, over time. Just curious if the drivers are still the same as the prestige fragrance category normalizes as you've described. So historically, you've talked about 25%-30% hair growth, skincare and prestige cosmetics, and then mid-singles on consumer beauty. And just, kind of given the flattish performance volume in consumer beauty, the more tempered language on skincare, and I would be curious to hear what tweaking to accommodate changes means. I was just curious how you're thinking about the building blocks for that 6%-8%. Thanks.

Laurent Mercier (CFO)

... Mm-hmm. So, hi, hi, Lauren. So indeed, first of all, I mean, we confirm indeed the midterm algorithm, so 6%-8%. What we are really controlling tightly is we need to make sure that it's really a balanced growth, indeed, between volumes, mix, and pricing. So as I've just explained, you understand that now we are shifting more from pricing to mix, okay? So this is definitely what we are balancing. But definitely on volumes, our algorithm is we continue to have volume growth, and again, all the innovation that we have just shared and that we will continue, of course, are our volume drivers. So indeed, volume drivers, volume growth on prestige.

On consumer beauty, definitely, we focus a lot on the mix management. And again, same example, the innovations that we have just announced, as you understand, they are very, they are improving the mix. And on volumes, I would say we are more assuming, you know, flat volumes on consumer beauty. So you see, so the model is more or less, I mean, the same as we have always shared. And again, I mean, we are still seeing, you know, a lot of white space in fragrance. Definitely as I explained, you know, with thanks to penetration, premiumization, I mean, ultra premium is a huge opportunity.

On consumer beauty, in our algorithm, we explained, we have also, you know, a lot of white space in consumer beauty. We shared and, you know, we highlighted all the great work that we are doing in Brazil. But also we have plans really on the emerging markets where our brands are, you know, at the right equity and the right positioning we need to catch some market share. So our model is perfectly on track. And indeed, with this balance, you know, we keep repeating this balanced portfolio and balanced geographical growth.

Lauren Lieberman (Managing Director and Senior U.S. Equity Research Analyst)

Great. And then just to follow up on the skincare commentary in the release, I think it was very pointed, the sort of, I think the quote was tweaking to accommodate changes in the dynamic skincare market. So just curious what that means, and it, you know, are things still on track to double the business? I think it was by fiscal 2026 is the target, but please, you know, correct me if that's the wrong date.

Sue Nabi (CEO)

So, Lauren, this is Sue speaking. Skincare is still our biggest opportunity ever, both in terms of growth, in terms of white space, in terms of profitability, et cetera, et cetera. We have three fantastic brands, operating exactly where the skincare market is growing today and will grow tomorrow. Ultra premium, brands that are really, rooted into premium market, and of course, brands that are more towards Gen Z and millennials, such as Diesel. So with these three brands, we really map the market in a very nice way. The other element that's very important is that when I saw how much we are overperforming in fragrances, how much we are doing the right things in this area, which is growing the, business of the company, I decided intentionally to slow down our skincare openings, okay?

I want to do it perfectly, and this is the best news, as I may say, of the year. It's not to go fast, it's to do the right thing. And as I love to say, what takes time is respected by time. It's not going to take an endless time, it's going to take the right time. So don't expect us to change our strategy in skincare. It's still the number one obsession of the company for the next years. It's very important part of the growth algorithm of the company. But the good news is, as today, we can do without this growth that we have been, you know, mapping two years ago. And it's very good news, specifically when we see how some players in this area have been hit by, you know, overpromotionality, becoming daigou favorites, et cetera.

We don't want to go there again. You see what I mean? So when you don't use these levers, it takes a bit more time, but it's healthier and better in terms of brand equity protection.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question will come from Mark Astrachan with Stifel. Please go ahead.

Mark Astrachan (Managing Director)

Yeah, thanks and morning, everybody. Two questions related to expectations for some slowing in the category growth, particularly on the prestige side. I guess one, why increase inventory per the working capital commentary, if you think category growth is going to slow, especially heading into a period of traditionally smaller sales in the back half of your fiscal year? And related, what gives confidence that retailer inventories on that prestige side are balanced or in the right spot today, given that your sales have exceeded consumer takeaway in the prestige business in recent quarters? Thanks.

Laurent Mercier (CFO)

...Yeah. So thank you, Mark. So again, I want to be, to repeat again, I mean, you know, it, it's not a slowing in prestige fragrance category, it's really normalization. And just to reiterate that, you know, mid- to high-single-digit fragrance of those category, I mean, is a very robust growth. And, you know, confirms that this category is very dynamic, especially when you compare, you know, versus the trends that were existing before, before COVID. So on inventory, I can tell you that we are absolutely in control on our inventory with our supply chain, you know, with very strong forecast accuracy. So we are, you know, we are running our business in a very intelligent manner. Definitely, we made decision at the moment to increase inventory. The clear example is Burberry Goddess.

I can tell you, Burberry Goddess, number one innovation on the market, you know, the biggest ever launch at Coty. So definitely we make sure, especially as, because we started this project, you know, more than a year ago, in a context where supply chain was still, you know, challenged. We made sure, of course, that we had sufficient components, sufficient products. Of course, you have a very good service level, and you see now the service level is at, you know, is 96%. And, you know, even with these very big launches, which is the case in fragrance, but also in prestige, but also in consumer beauty. So we have very, very tight control on the inventory.

Then, on the retailer side, I can tell you that the level of inventory that we have across our markets, across our retailers is very healthy. We are really tracking sellout and sell-in, and indeed, as you can see, in our numbers, that our sellout is ahead of the market. So this is really... And we are really making sure with each market, you know, each all the teams, that there is no inventory, you know, that inventory at retailer side is very, very healthy. And again, the discipline that Sue is referring to, this is definitely a big, big part of the discipline we have put in place, and we continue to manage it within Coty. Thank you, everyone.

So, again, as you can imagine, we are really very proud about this fourteenth quarter with, of results that are in line to ahead of both guidance and expectation. It's three years and a half already, and that's, that's, I would say, an achievement. And of course, we are here to continue this, trajectory. So looking forward to seeing all of you in CAGNY within two weeks. Thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

This does conclude today's Coty second quarter fiscal 2024 question-and-answer conference call. You may disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day.