Executive Summary

Corpay delivered solid Q4 execution: revenue rose 10% year over year to $1.03B, organic revenue growth accelerated to 12%, and adjusted EPS grew 21% to a record $5.36, while GAAP EPS declined 1% to $3.44 due to one‑offs (gain on sale, goodwill impairment, discrete tax) that net reduced GAAP net income by ~~$37M (~~$0.52 per share) .
Versus company guidance, Q4 revenue modestly missed the $1.04–$1.07B range amid ~$20M unfavorable FX since November, but adjusted EPS landed within the $5.25–$5.45 guide, aided by expense discipline and a lower effective tax rate .
FY25 guidance: revenue $4.35–$4.45B, GAAP EPS $16.50–$17.00, adjusted EPS $20.75–$21.25; headwinds reflect weaker FX, lower fuel prices, and higher tax vs November preview; management still expects ~high‑teens organic growth in Corporate Payments and ~$1.5B FCF for capital deployment .
Stock narrative/catalysts: accelerating Corporate Payments (enterprise AP win), cross‑border MCA product rollout, Brazil consumer vehicle upsell (Zapay + Gringo), and M&A/buybacks; near‑term headwinds are FX/fuel/tax and Lodging mix pressure from disaster response (FEMA/wildfires) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Corporate Payments strength: revenue +38% yoy to $346.2M; organic growth ~26%, with direct business +28% and spend +22% in Q4; “sales increased 36%” with “elephant” wins, incl. first enterprise full‑AP customer cross‑sold from vehicle payments .
- Margin execution: adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 100 bps yoy to 55.2%, reflecting operating leverage and synergy capture despite macro headwinds .
- Improved KPIs: same‑store sales turned positive (+1%) vs -3% a year ago; retention remained ~92%; management: “underlying businesses…spot on…trends improving materially” .
What Went Wrong
- Modest revenue shortfall vs guide: ~$20M negative macro (stronger USD) vs November guide pressed print revenue to $1,034.4M, below the $1,040–$1,070M range; adjusted EPS was in range .
- GAAP optics: EPS down 1% yoy to $3.44 from $3.48 on goodwill impairment ($90M), gain on disposition (~$121M), and discrete non‑cash tax provision; net effect reduced GAAP NI by ~~$37M (~~$0.52 EPS) .
- Lodging yield compression: revenue per room night fell 18% to $11.39, driven by low‑spread FEMA activation for hurricanes; wildfires in CA continue disaster‑response mix into early 2025 .

Financial Results

Metric	Q4 2023	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Guide/Consensus
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$937.3	$1,029.2	$1,034.4	$1,040–$1,070 (Q4 guide)
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)	$3.48	$3.90	$3.44	$4.28–$4.48 (Q4 guide)
Adjusted EPS ($)	$4.44	$5.00	$5.36	$5.25–$5.45 (Q4 guide)

Notes:

Revenue missed the low end of company guidance; adjusted EPS printed within guidance; GAAP EPS below guidance due to one‑offs .
Consensus (S&P Global) was unavailable at time of analysis due to data access limits; estimate comparisons are anchored to company guidance [GetEstimates error].

Segment revenue (GAAP):

Segment Revenue ($USD Millions)	Q4 2023	Q4 2024	YoY
Vehicle Payments	$499.8	$497.7	~0%
Corporate Payments	$251.1	$346.2	+38%
Lodging Payments	$119.9	$120.9	+1%
Other (Gift & Payroll Card)	$66.5	$69.7	+5%
Total	$937.3	$1,034.4	+10%

KPIs (Q4):

KPI	Q4 2023	Q4 2024	YoY	Yield
Vehicle: Transactions (Millions)	193.9	207.0	+7%	Rev/Txn: $2.58 → $2.40 (-7%)
Corporate: Spend ($USD Millions)	$33,583	$47,942	+43%	Rev/Spend: 0.75% → 0.72% (-3 bps)
Lodging: Room Nights (Millions)	8.7	10.6	+23%	Rev/Night: $13.86 → $11.39 (-18%)
Consolidated: Organic Revenue Growth	—	12%	—	Macro‑adjusted

Margins (quarter):

Margin	Q4 2023	Q4 2024
Adjusted EBITDA Margin	54.2%	55.2%

Macro bridge (Q4 revenue):

Negative impact from FX (~~$28M), fuel prices (~~$7M), and fuel spreads (~$11M) vs macro‑neutral; net headwind reconciles to “as reported” .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Total Revenue	FY 2025	—	$4,350–$4,450M	New
GAAP Net Income	FY 2025	—	$1,174–$1,224M	New
GAAP EPS	FY 2025	—	$16.50–$17.00	New
Adjusted Net Income	FY 2025	—	$1,482–$1,532M	New
Adjusted EPS	FY 2025	—	$20.75–$21.25	New
Interest Expense	FY 2025	—	$350–$380M	New
Diluted Shares	FY 2025	—	~72M	New
Effective Tax Rate	FY 2025	—	~25.5%–26.5%	New
Net Income	Q1 2025	—	$240–$250M	New
GAAP EPS	Q1 2025	—	$3.38–$3.48	New
Adjusted EPS	Q1 2025	—	$4.45–$4.55	New

Notes: Management attributes FY25 guide headwinds to worsened FX, fuel prices, and tax vs November preview; expects ~high‑teens organic growth in Corporate Payments and ~$1.5B FCF .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Q2 2024 (prior)	Q3 2024 (prior)	Q4 2024 (current)	Trend
Corporate Payments growth and mix	High‑teens growth; Paymerang closed 7/1; GPS expected early 2025	Organic +18%; surpassed $1B revenue; guide for acceleration	Organic ~26%; enterprise AP win; strong sales/new bookings	Accelerating
Cross‑Border (GPS, MCA product)	GPS expected in early 2025	On track to close GPS; synergy plans	GPS closed in Dec; expanding MCA multi‑currency account; bank‑competitive	Product expansion
Vehicle Payments – Brazil consumer	Brazil strong; Zapay noted	Brazil up; tags/parking; insurance growing	Brazil organic +20% in Q4; Gringo acquisition expands TAM 3×; 5M MAUs to cross‑sell	Strong
Lodging	Softer; yields pressured	Lodging -5% yoy; improving into Q4	Room nights +23%; yield -18% on FEMA; wildfires work continuing	Mixed: volume up, yield down
Macro (FX/fuel/tax/interest)	Slightly unfavorable FX/fuel vs May outlook	2024 revenue guide trimmed on FX/fuel; Q4 acceleration expected	~$20M FX hit vs Nov; FY25 macro headwinds vs Oct forward curves (FX down, lower fuel, higher rates/tax)	Headwind
Portfolio/M&A & pruning	Paymerang closed; M&A focus	Term Loan B upsized; buyback authorization +$1B	Divested Merchant Solutions in Dec; pruning non‑core; robust M&A pipeline	Active

Management Commentary

“Organic revenue growth…12%…record adjusted earnings per diluted share of $5.36 for the quarter.” – CFO Tom Panther .
“The macro turned unfavorable during Q4, compressing our print revenue by about $20 million…a favorable tax rate effectively offset…landing us back at our expected Q4 EPS.” – CEO Ron Clarke .
“We’re projecting organic revenue to grow in the high teens [in Corporate Payments]…and…~$1.5 billion in free cash flow in 2025.” – CFO Tom Panther .
“We signed our first enterprise payables account…a big enterprise win…we can monetize more of their spend than other people can.” – CEO Ron Clarke .
“We recorded a $90 million non‑cash impairment…$120 million pre‑tax gain on the sale of our Merchant Solutions business…$10 million one‑time stock comp…$11 million deal termination fees.” – CFO Tom Panther .

Q&A Highlights

Vehicle Payments outlook: High‑single‑digit organic growth in 2025 led by Brazil and U.S. recovery; U.S. sales +60% in Q4 with improving retention; sequential recovery expected through 2025 .
Brazil consumer expansion: Gringo + Zapay together ~>10% of Brazil revenue; TAM ~3× toll; ~5M MAUs to cross‑sell; purchased for ~~$140M (~~<4× forward revenue), funded locally in BRL .
Corporate Payments enterprise push: First enterprise AP win; go‑to‑market via large partners; tech stack ready; card penetration in full AP averages ~10–11% (wide dispersion by client mix) .
Lodging yield dynamics: FEMA activation depressed yields in Q4; wildfire response extends mix effects into early 2025; normalization expected back toward prior run‑rate .
Margins/Investment: 2025 margins roughly flat on a print basis (macro compression, two lower‑margin acquisitions, step‑up in S&M), with sequential acceleration through the year as synergies and Lodging/Vehicle improve .

Estimates Context

S&P Global/Capital IQ consensus was unavailable due to data‑access limits at the time of this analysis. As a proxy, we compared results to the company’s Q4 guidance: revenue printed below the $1.04–$1.07B range, while adjusted EPS came in within the $5.25–$5.45 range .
Implication: Street models may need to reflect stronger mix in Corporate Payments, better cost discipline/tax rate, continued macro sensitivity (FX/fuel/tax), and Lodging yield headwinds from disaster mix .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Corporate Payments is the engine: high‑teens organic outlook with enterprise expansion, MCA deposit product, and GPS integration underpinning durable multi‑year growth; watch for further large “elephant” wins and monetization beyond card (ACH, subscriptions) .
Brazil is a multi‑product consumer flywheel: Gringo + Zapay significantly expands TAM and cross‑sell surface; local‑currency funding limits FX leakage; track monthly users and upsell attach into toll/parking/insurance/fuel .
Macro is the swing factor: FX/fuel/tax reduced Q4 revenue (~$20M) and weigh on FY25; if forward curves revert toward October levels, FY25 revenue and EPS could be higher by ~$136M and ~$1.19, respectively .
Lodging recovery is volume‑led near term; yield normalizes post‑disaster; monitor FEMA/insurance mix and workforce same‑store sales in H1’25 .
Capital deployment optionality: ~$1.5B FCF expected in 2025, robust M&A pipeline, and buyback authorization create upside levers vs a “pay down debt” base case .
2025 setup: Guide embeds conservative macro; execution on sales, retention, and synergy capture supports mid‑teens macro‑neutral EPS growth; positive estimate revisions likely if macro eases or enterprise wins ramp .

Appendix: Additional Detail and Cross-References

Q4 GAAP P&L, balance sheet, and cash flow statements; non‑GAAP reconciliations; KPI tables by segment/geography .
Q3 comparisons for trend analysis and Q4 guidance baseline .
December divestiture of Merchant Solutions (Comdata POS) corroborated in third‑party press release and referenced in Q4 one‑offs .

CORPAY, INC. (CPAY)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary