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CAVCO INDUSTRIES, INC. (CVCO)·Q2 2026 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • CVCO delivered a clean beat: revenue $556.5M (+9.7% Y/Y) and diluted EPS $6.55 (+24% Y/Y) vs S&P Global consensus of $542.9M and $6.09, respectively; EBITDA also topped consensus as insurance profitability inflected . Estimates marked with an asterisk are from S&P Global and lack document citations.
  • Mix/pricing tailwinds and stronger Financial Services gross margin (55.6% vs 21.8% Y/Y) expanded consolidated gross margin 130 bps to 24.2%; factory-built margins held at 22.9% despite tariff headwinds and regional softness in the Southeast .
  • Backlog stable-to-slightly higher at ~$210M (5–7 weeks), with selective Southeast production pullbacks offset by strength across northern regions; wholesale prices held firm across geographies .
  • Post-quarter, CVCO closed the $190M cash acquisition of American Homestar (Oak Creek) and repurchased $36M in stock (authorization remaining ~$142M), reinforcing a balanced capital allocation framework .
  • Near-term watch items: evolving tariffs (Canadian lumber duties + anti-dumping and China component tariffs) and Southeast demand; management expects tariff impacts beyond prior $2–$5.5M/quarter range as lumber measures take effect, partly offset by delayed China escalations .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Broad-based execution: “continued strong performance from all phases of our business - production, retail and our Financial Services segment,” with capacity utilization ~75% and ASP/mix benefits .
    • Insurance profitability step-change: Financial Services gross margin 55.6% (vs 21.8% Y/Y) on higher premiums and materially lower claims losses from underwriting/claims management improvements; segment operating profit turned positive .
    • Pricing/mix resilience: Consolidated ASP up sequentially, driven by higher recognized units from retail and more multi-section homes; wholesale pricing held across regions, including the Southeast .
  • What Went Wrong

    • Regional divergence: Southeast slowed (orders flat to down) necessitating targeted production reductions (extended downtime, rate cuts) while other regions remained strong; management is monitoring closely .
    • Tariff headwinds: Q2 COGS impact ~+$2M; looking forward, Canadian lumber duty/anti-dumping increases add to prior $2–$5.5M/quarter range; sensitivity to local market pass-through remains .
    • Slight sequential top-line downtick: Q2 revenue essentially flat vs Q1 (down ~$0.3M) as units sold fell (5,178 vs 5,416), offset by higher revenue/home; interest income also edged lower .

Financial Results

Consolidated performance (oldest → newest)

MetricQ4 2025Q1 2026Q2 2026
Revenue ($M)$508.4 $556.9 $556.5
Gross Profit ($M)$116.1 $129.5 $134.4
Gross Margin (%)22.8% 23.3% 24.2%
Income from Operations ($M)$38.6 $60.4 $62.2
Pre-tax Income ($M)$42.9 $65.3 $67.3
Net Income ($M)$36.3 $51.6 $52.4
Diluted EPS ($)$4.47 $6.42 $6.55

Segment revenue and profitability (oldest → newest)

MetricQ4 2025Q1 2026Q2 2026
Factory-built Housing Revenue ($M)$487.9 $535.7 $535.1
Financial Services Revenue ($M)$20.5 $21.2 $21.4
Factory-built Gross Profit ($M)$108.6 $120.8 $122.5
Financial Services Gross Profit ($M)$7.5 $8.7 $11.9
Factory-built Gross Margin (%)22.3% 22.6% 22.9%
Financial Services Gross Margin (%)36.8% 40.9% 55.6%
Factory-built SG&A ($M)$71.5 $63.2 $65.8
Financial Services SG&A ($M)$6.0 $6.0 $6.5
Factory-built Operating Income ($M)$37.1 $57.7 $56.7
Financial Services Operating Income ($M)$1.5 $2.7 $5.4

KPIs and operating metrics (oldest → newest)

KPIQ4 2025Q1 2026Q2 2026
Homes Sold (units)5,060 5,416 5,178
Modules Sold (units)8,260 8,900 8,699
Net Factory-built Revenue per Home$96,415 $98,910 $103,344
Capacity Utilization~—~75% ~75% (vs ~70% PY)
Backlog ($M)$197 ~$200 ~$210 (5–7 weeks)
Retail Mix (% of sold via Co. stores)18.9% (sequential ref) 22.9%
Share Repurchases ($M)~$50 ~$36

Comparison to S&P Global consensus (oldest → newest; asterisk denotes S&P data)

MetricQ4 2025 Estimate*Q4 2025 ActualQ1 2026 Estimate*Q1 2026 ActualQ2 2026 Estimate*Q2 2026 Actual
Revenue ($M)504.2*508.4 525.0*556.9 542.9*556.5
EPS (Primary) ($)4.87*5.40 (Adj EPS, per press) 5.55*6.42 6.09*6.55
EBITDA ($M)53.3*53.96*62.3*65.53*61.0*67.40*

Values with asterisk were retrieved from S&P Global and may not appear in company documents.

Guidance Changes

CVCO does not issue formal quantitative guidance; management provided qualitative updates and cost frameworks.

Metric/ItemPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent Guidance/CommentaryChange
Tariff impact (COGS)Near-term quartersPrior framework: $2–$5.5M per quarter if fully implemented (ex lumber) Q2 impact ~$2M; Canadian lumber duty/anti-dumping increases (35% + potential +10%) add incrementally beyond prior range; delayed China tariff increases bias toward lower end for China-sourced items Headwinds rising (lumber); China delay a partial offset
Effective Tax RateQ2 actual22.1% in Q2 vs 20.3% PY; driven by lower expected tax credits, partly offset by stock-based comp benefits Higher vs PY
American Homestar acquisitionClosed 9/29/25Announced 7/14/25$190M cash; minimal purchase accounting impact expected on consolidated gross margin given inventory/marketability; integration progressing well Closed; integration underway
Capacity/UtilizationOngoing~75% in Q1~75% in Q2; selective reductions in Southeast; other regions increasing production Maintained overall; regional mix shift
Pricing/ASPOngoingSequential ASP up in Q1Sequential ASP up in Q2; wholesale prices “flat,” retail mix and multi-section mix drove reported ASP higher; pricing held across geographies Maintained/firm
Share Repurchase AuthorizationCurrent$178M remaining (Q1) ~$142M remaining after ~$36M Q2 buyback Reduced authorization capacity

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ-2 (Q4 2025)Q-1 (Q1 2026)Current (Q2 2026)Trend
Regional trendsWeather impacted southern states in Feb; overall solid finish to FY25 Southeast lagged; monitoring backlogs; broader markets stable; Florida still challenged Notable divergence: Southeast slowed; North strong; backlogs in SE stabilized and edged up late Oct SE softer, stabilizing; North strong
Pricing/ASP & mixLower ASP Y/Y on mix/pricing in Q4 ASP up; true price appreciation in singles/doubles; multi-section mix up ASP up; retail mix and multi-section drove reported ASP; wholesale pricing flat but firm across geographies Firm pricing; mix tailwinds
Supply chain/tariffsTariffs limited impact in Q1; framework $2–$5.5M/quarter if fully implemented Q2 tariff impact ~$2M; Canadian lumber duties higher; China hikes delayed; 60–90 day pass-through timelines Headwinds building (lumber); China delay a relief
Financial ServicesQ4 gross margin 36.8%; weather/loan sales variability Sharp improvement; insurance profitability recovery Gross margin 55.6%; majority of improvement from underwriting/actions vs favorable weather Structural step-up vs PY
Capital allocationNew $150M buyback approved (May-25) $50M buyback; announced Homestar deal Closed Homestar ($190M); $36M buyback; continued plant investments Balanced M&A/Capex/Buybacks
Regulatory/industrySenate bill movement incl. chassis; HUD code update potential HUD code update positive; chassis removal seen as innovation enabler; equal treatment for community ownership debated Policy momentum supportive

Management Commentary

  • CEO Bill Boor: “We saw continued strong performance from all phases of our business - production, retail and our Financial Services segment. Our teams executed with excellence in a fluid market with continuing macroeconomic risks.”
  • On regional dynamics: “We did need to slow our Southeast production in Q2… All other regions maintained elevated production… Backlogs… served the Southeast stabilize and edge up… There’s nothing systemic we can point to…”
  • On pricing/mix: “Wholesale prices were essentially flat… upward movement in reported ASP was primarily the result of a higher percentage of recognized units from retail, and… more multi-section homes.”
  • On Financial Services: “Operating profit is up $14 million from a loss last year to an $8 million profit this year… majority of the increased profitability has resulted from… underwriting and claims management.”
  • CFO Allison Aden on tariffs: “We estimate that the impact of tariffs in Q2 was approximately $2 million… Canadian lumber countervailing duties… increased from 14.5% to 35%… subsequent… announced… 10% tariffs… These would have a meaningful impact… A positive is… China tariff increase… kicked out… reduce our estimate probably to the lower end… for those components.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Regional outlook: Orders modestly down in Q2 (seasonal), SE moderated but stabilized into October; production held firm elsewhere; plants outside SE increasing production .
  • Tariffs and cost outlook: Q2 impact ~$2M; prior $2–$5.5M/quarter framework likely understated for Canadian lumber; China escalation delay is a relief; 60–90 day commodity cost flow-through .
  • American Homestar: Expect minimal consolidated gross margin impact from purchase accounting; ~100 stores post-deal; AHS ~60% of homes through company-owned retail—lifts integrated retail mix .
  • Financing environment: Chattel rates mid-8% (~8.5%); ongoing work to expand secondary market take-out; selective balance sheet holds as a bridge .
  • Pricing discipline: No evidence of broad competitive price pressure; pricing held in SE despite volume softness .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 beat: Revenue $556.5M vs $542.9M*; EPS $6.55 vs $6.09*; EBITDA $67.4M* vs $61.0M* .
  • Back-to-back beats: Q1 revenue $556.9M vs $525.0M*; EPS $6.42 vs $5.55* . Q4 revenue $508.4M vs $504.2M*; Adj EPS $5.40 vs $4.87* .
  • Implication: Street likely raises near-term estimates on insurance profitability and ASP/mix resilience, but may temper factory margin expectations for tariff headwinds and SE softness.
    Values with asterisk were retrieved from S&P Global and may not appear in company documents.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Quality beat with higher gross margin and strong EPS on resilient pricing/mix and a profitable insurance rebound; limited sequential top-line change as unit volume dipped .
  • Regional divergence is real but manageable: SE trimmed production yet stabilized; broad-based strength across northern states supports volumes/backlog .
  • Tariffs represent the near-term swing factor—Canadian lumber duties likely add to COGS beyond the prior $2–$5.5M/qtr framework; monitor pass-through and lumber/OSB indices (60–90 day lag) .
  • Retail mix set to rise with Homestar (higher integrated retail %) and could support ASP and consolidated margin via mix, even as purchase accounting impact is minimal .
  • Capital deployment remains shareholder-friendly and balanced: closed $190M acquisition, continued capex-driven plant modernization, and ongoing buybacks with ~$142M authorization remaining .
  • Financial Services appears structurally improved (underwriting/claims), offering a more durable earnings buffer against manufacturing cyclicality .
  • Trading lens: Near-term catalysts include Street estimate revisions and integration updates; risks center on tariff cost cadence and SE demand trajectory.