CVR Energy - Q4 2025

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Hello, and thank you for standing by. My name is Bella, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to fourth quarter 2025 CVR Energy Inc. Q4 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. We do request for today's session that you please limit to one question and one follow-up. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star, then one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, press star one again. I would now like to turn the conference over to Richard Roberts, Vice President, FP&A and Investor Relations. You may begin.

Richard Roberts (VP of FP&A and Investor Relations)

Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. We very much appreciate you joining us this afternoon for our CVR Energy fourth quarter 2025 earnings call. With me today are Mark Pytosh, our Chief Executive Officer, Dane Neumann, our Chief Financial Officer, Mike Wright, our Chief Operating Officer, and other members of management. Prior to discussing our 2025 fourth quarter and full year results, let me remind you that this conference call may contain forward-looking statements as that term is defined under federal securities laws. For this purpose, any statements made during this call that are not statements of historical facts may be deemed to be forward-looking statements. You are cautioned that these statements may be affected by important factors set forth in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and our latest earnings release.

As a result, actual operations or results may differ materially from the results discussed in the forward-looking statements. We undertake no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise, except to the extent required by law. This call also includes various non-GAAP financial measures. The disclosures related to such non-GAAP measures, including reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures, are included in our 2025 fourth quarter earnings release that we filed with the SEC and Form 10-K for the period and will be discussed during the call. That said, I'll turn the call over to Mark.

Mark Pytosh (CEO)

Thank you, Richard. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining our earnings call. For the full year 2025, we reported consolidated net income of $90 million and EBITDA of $591 million. At the segment level, we generated EBITDA of $411 million in the petroleum segment, $211 million in the fertilizer segment, and a loss of $22 million in the renewable segment. For the fourth quarter, consolidated net loss was $116 million, and EBITDA was $51 million. Our fourth quarter results were impacted by the accelerated depreciation associated with the reversion of the renewable diesel unit at Wynnewood back to hydrocarbon processing, along with extended downtime at the Coffeyville fertilizer facility due to three weeks of startup issues at the third-party air separation plant.

We continue to believe the refining and fertilizer market fundamentals look constructive for the next several years, which I will discuss further in my closing remarks. Now, let me turn the call over to Dane to discuss our financial highlights.

Dane Neumann (CFO)

Thank you, Mark, and good afternoon, everyone. For the fourth quarter of 2025, our net loss attributable to CVI shareholders was $110 million. Losses per share were $1.10, and EBITDA was $51 million. Our fourth quarter results included unfavorable inventory valuation impact of $39 million, a $9 million unfavorable change in our RFS liability, and unrealized derivative gains of $10 million. Excluding the above-mentioned items, Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $91 million, and adjusted losses per share were $0.80. Adjusted EBITDA on the petroleum segment was $73 million for the fourth quarter of 2025, compared to $9 million for the fourth quarter of 2024. Higher crack spreads and increased throughput volumes drove the majority of the increase from the prior year period.

Combined total throughput for the fourth quarter of 2025 was approximately 218,000 bbl per day. Throughput utilization for the quarter was approximately 97% of nameplate capacity, and light product yield was 92% on total throughput volumes. Benchmark cracks for the fourth quarter softened from the third quarter levels, as they typically do in the winter, with the Group 3 2-1-1 averaging $22.70 per bbl. Cracks were unseasonably strong in October and November, which we believe led to higher than average U.S. refining utilization levels that partly drove the decline in cracks in December. Our fourth quarter realized margin, adjusted for the change in RFS liability, inventory valuation, and unrealized derivative gains, was $9.92 per bbl, representing a 44% capture rate on the Group 3 2-1-1 benchmark.

RINs prices declined approximately $0.18 per bbl from the third quarter 2025 levels, averaging $6.05 per bbl for the fourth quarter. Net RINs expense for the quarter, excluding the change in RFS liability, was $90 million or $4.49 per bbl, which negatively impacted our capture rate for the quarter by approximately 20%. The estimated accrued RFS obligation on the balance sheet was $72 million at December 31st, representing 59 million RINs, marked to market at an average price of $1.21. As a reminder, we will continue to recognize 100% of Wynnewood Refining Company's RIN obligation in our financials, as the EPA has not yet ruled on our pending petition, which for the fourth quarter of 2025 was approximately 34 million.

Direct operating expenses in the petroleum segment were $5.40 per bbl for the fourth quarter, compared to $5.13 per bbl in the fourth quarter of 2024. The increase in direct operating expenses per barrel was primarily due to increased personnel and utilities costs. Adjusted EBITDA in the renewable segment was breakeven for the fourth quarter, a decline from fourth quarter of 2024 Adjusted EBITDA of $9 million. The decline in Adjusted EBITDA was driven by a combination of the loss of the blenders tax credit, a decline in the HOBO spread, and reduced throughput volumes.

We ceased operations of the renewable diesel unit at the end of November, and the reversion of the unit to hydrocarbon processing was completed in December. Adjusted EBITDA on the fertilizer segment was $20 million for the fourth quarter of 2025, compared to $50 million for the prior year period. Ammonia utilization rate was 64% for the quarter, which was impacted by the planned turnaround and subsequent delayed startup at the Coffeyville facility. While the turnaround was completed in early November as scheduled, we experienced additional downtime following approximately three weeks of startup issues at the third-party air separation plant. The board of directors of CVR Partners general partner declared a distribution of $0.37 per common unit for the fourth quarter of 2025. As CVR Energy owns approximately 37% of CVR Partners common units, we will receive a proportionate cash distribution of approximately $1 million.

Cash flow from operations for the fourth quarter of 2025 was breakeven, and free cash flow was a use of $55 million. Significant uses of cash in the quarter included a $75 million payment on the term loan, $68 million to RIN purchases related to Wynnewood Refining Company's 2024 and 2025 obligations, $55 million of capital spending, $27 million for the non-controlling interest portion of the CVR Partners' third quarter distribution, and $26 million of cash interest. Total consolidated capital spending for the full year 2025 was $197 million, which included $135 million in the petroleum segment, $57 million in the fertilizer segment, and $4 million in the renewable segment. Turnaround spending in the petroleum segment was approximately $190 million in 2025.

For the full year 2026, we estimate total consolidated capital spending to be approximately $200 million-$240 million, and turnaround spending in the petroleum segment to be approximately $15 million-$20 million. Growth capital spending of $75 million-$90 million in 2026 is expected to be slightly elevated relative to the past few years as we hit the peak spending year for the alkylation project at Wynnewood, along with a host of reliability and debottlenecking projects in the fertilizer segment. As a reminder, the growth capital spending in the fertilizer segment will be funded from cash reserves taken at CVR Partners over the past few years. Turning to the balance sheet, we ended the quarter with a consolidated cash balance of $511 million, which includes $69 million of cash in the fertilizer segment.

Subsequent to year-end, we completed a $1 billion senior notes offering with maturities in 2031 and 2034. The proceeds of the offering were used to repay the remaining balance of the term loan, redeem all of the outstanding 8.5% senior notes due in 2029, and redeem $217 million of the 5.75% senior notes due in 2028. With these transactions, we're able to significantly extend our debt maturity profile while retaining the ability to pay down the remainder of the outstanding 2028 notes as we work to get back to our current target of $1 billion of gross leverage.

Total liquidity as of December 31st, excluding CVR Partners, was approximately $690 million, which was comprised primarily of $442 million of cash and availability under the ABL facility of $248 million. Subsequent to year-end, we also completed an upsize and extension of our asset-based lending facility, increasing the commitments from $345 million-$550 million and extending the maturity to 2031. While we have not historically drawn on the ABL, we believe the increased liquidity is a benefit and provides additional financial flexibility if needed. Looking ahead to the first quarter of 2026 for our petroleum segment, we estimate total throughput to be approximately 200-215 thousand bbl per day.

We estimate direct operating expenses to range between $110 million and $120 million, and total capital spending to be between $30 million and $35 million. For the fertilizer segment, we estimate our first quarter 2026 ammonia utilization rate to be between 95% and 100%. We estimate direct operating expenses to be approximately $57 million-$62 million, excluding inventory impacts, and total capital spending to be between $25 million and $30 million. With that, Mark, I will turn it back over to you.

Mark Pytosh (CEO)

Thank you, Dane. As this is my first earnings call as the CEO of CVR Energy, I wanted to take a few minutes to highlight some of the strategic priorities that we will be focused on over the next few years. First and foremost, our primary focus will continue to be the safe and reliable operations of our facilities. Reliability is key in this industry, as we need to make sure the facilities are running well to be able to capture whatever margin opportunities present themselves. Second, we are reevaluating our commercial optimization opportunities to drive margin capture improvement in the petroleum segment. While we are still at the beginning phases of this analysis, we believe there are opportunities in our existing asset base to capture more of the crack than we have been over the past few years.

These include the reversion of the RDU back to hydrocarbon processing, which should expand the crude slate flexibility at Wynnewood and allow us to repurpose rail assets for additional feedstock security and product shipment optionality. At Coffeyville, we have started ramping up our WCS processing and believe we may be able to get throughput up to 20,000bbl per day, compared to less than 1,000 bbl per day in 2025. I would also like to take this opportunity to introduce our new Chief Commercial Officer, Travis Capps. Travis brings over 30 years of leadership experience in the refining and petrochemicals industries, most recently having served as Chief Commercial Officer at Motiva. We're excited to have Travis leading our commercial team as we look to better optimize our refining portfolio. Third, we plan to take a more proactive approach in pursuing opportunities to expand our asset footprint.

Our portfolio would benefit greatly from additional geographic diversity and increased scale, and we plan to be more active in the marketplace in trying to identify these opportunities. Finally, we will maintain a disciplined approach to capital allocation. We've made significant progress on our deleveraging efforts, reducing debt on the balance sheet by over $165 million in 2025. Making progress on deleveraging, along with maintaining a cash balance of $400 million-$500 million, excluding CVR Partners, and generating free cash flow in the current environment, are some of the key metrics the board evaluates each quarter regarding a potential return of the dividend. Looking ahead, we believe fundamentals in the refining sector continue to look constructive over the next few years.

Global refining capacity additions are set to slow down in 2026 and 2027 compared to the past few years, while refined product demand growth is expected to remain steady, particularly for diesel. Within the MidCon, where we operate, several new refined product pipelines are under construction or development that should offer additional outlets from the MidCon and the Gulf Coast to the Denver area, the Southwest, and potentially on to California. On the crude oil side of the equation, recent developments in Venezuela could lead to additional heavy barrels coming to the Gulf Coast, which in turn may pressure Canadian crude oil differentials. Wider Canadian crude diffs would be a benefit to our system as we increase our WCS processing at Coffeyville, which was part of the facility's upgrades over its last turnaround cycle.

Although RINs continue to weigh on our margin capture and refining, we remain cautiously optimistic after the actions taken by EPA last year to clear the backlog of outstanding SRE petitions. We believe Wynnewood Refining Company should continue to receive full or partial SRE grants as it has for the 2017 through 2024 periods, and we will continue to fight for the rights Wynnewood Refining Company is entitled to. Far from being the windfall that large integrated refiners and the RFA claim, there is no doubt that Wynnewood Refining Company suffers disproportionate economic harm as a result of complying with the RFS. Any attempt to force the shutdown of small refineries is nothing more than a maneuver to increase the market share of large integrated refiners to line their own pockets at the expense of the American driving public.

In the fertilizer segment, despite a record crop year for corn in 2025, preliminary estimates are calling for up to 95 million acres of corn to be planted in 2026, which should drive continued strong demand for nitrogen fertilizers through the spring. In addition, global inventories of nitrogen fertilizers appear to still be tight, and pricing has been robust so far to start the year. We are continuing to invest in plant infrastructure for reliability, in addition to increasing our DEF production and load-out capacity. We are also progressing the feedstock diversification and ammonia expansion project at the Coffeyville facility and the brownfield expansion at East Dubuque.

Although we experienced some unplanned downtime in the fourth quarter due to the third-party-owned air separation plant at Coffeyville, both facilities are running well today, and as Dane noted in our guidance, we are currently expecting ammonia utilization rates back above 95% for the first quarter. Looking at quarter to date pricing metrics for the first quarter of 2026, Group 2-1-1 cracks have averaged $17.09 per bbl, with the Brent WTI spread at $4.57 per bbl, and the WCS differential at $14.84 per bbl under WTI. Prompt fertilizer prices are $700 per ton for ammonia and $350 a ton for UAN. With that, operator, we are ready for questions.

Operator (participant)

At this time, I would like to remind everyone in order to ask a question, press star and then the number one on your telephone keypad. We do request for today's session that you please limit to one question and one follow-up. We will pause for just a moment to compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Manav Gupta with UBS. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Manav Gupta (Executive Director)

Good morning. I wanted to first start on a little bit on what you mentioned in the opening comments. Looks like more pragmatic M&A, but, you know, more, more persuasive approach to M&A than the prior management team. Can you talk a little bit about that, your expansion plans? What kind of assets are you looking? Which paths would you be interested in? Is it only refining? Anything on those lines would really be helpful. Thank you.

Mark Pytosh (CEO)

Thanks for the question, Manav. So our focus is when we say proactive, means that, you know, try to engage with other players to discuss, you know, kind of, where things are headed strategically and looking for places where people are thinking of doing something different going forward, looking at a portfolio evaluation and really just trying to engage in discussions and see what may be out there and trying to see if there are opportunities to do bilateral acquisitions as opposed to participating in auction process. So we are really just more trying to engage and being in the dialogue. We're looking at both sides of the business, so both our refining business and our fertilizer business.

So, we are looking at opportunities to grow in both areas. And what I wanted to say is, while we're going to be more proactive, we're not going to lose our discipline. So it's not that we feel pressure that we have to do something, but we think there's going to be opportunities. We think the industry is sort of at a inflection point where there's going to be changes in portfolios out there, and we would like to see if there's opportunities to participate in that. And but we're gonna be disciplined, and I would give you kind of two thoughts on metrics or guideposts. One is, we won't stretch the balance sheet, so we're not gonna try to leverage up to do anything in either business.

And the other is that any deal that we would consider has to be accretive to our shareholders or our unitholders. So, we are going to try to see if opportunities present themselves, but we are going to be disciplined in our approach.

Manav Gupta (Executive Director)

Perfect. That's very reasonable. My quick follow-up here is, you know, you said you were going to pay down term loan, and you have paid a portion of it. Should we expect that you will first pay down the full amount of it, or can we expect that as you are paying it down, you could institute, like, a small, modest dividend? Refining shareholders always appreciate some kind of cash returns. And I'll turn it over. Thank you.

Dane Neumann (CFO)

Yeah, thanks, Manav. Dane, you know, as we've said, you know, in our prepared remarks, you know, cash, free cash flow, minimum cash balances, and progress on deleveraging have been our priorities. We don't believe that we have to be back to our base billion target before a dividend can return, and we've obviously made a lot of progress on the deleveraging. So again, I, we don't think we have to be at 0. We want to, you know, see a clear path to paying it down further before we consider returning to a modest level of dividend.

Mark Pytosh (CEO)

Yeah, and just to add to that, Manav, 'cause we do get that question quite a bit, is when we return with a dividend, we want a dividend that's gonna be sustainable, you know, in any part of the cycle. So we want to be, you know, have, you know, be able to do that and not yo-yo the dividend. And so, we are, you know, one of our major goals is to bring the dividend back. We understand that's the shareholders would like us to be paying a dividend, but we want also something that's sustainable. So we'll pick that spot, you know, the sweet spot Dane's described, where we can be sustainable in paying it, you know, again, in good crack markets and bad.

Manav Gupta (Executive Director)

Thank you so much.

Dane Neumann (CFO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Matthew Blair with the TPH. Please go ahead.

Matthew Blair (Managing Director)

Great. Thanks, and good afternoon, everyone. Can you talk a little bit more about ramping up the WCS runs at your Coffeyville refinery? I think previously you were shipping those WCS barrels and then reselling them at Cushing, so you're still getting some economic benefit. But I think, you know, earlier you mentioned that you're looking to ramp up runs to 20,000 bbl a day versus just the one that you did in 2025. So could you talk about, like, why, why? Like, what's spurring this change? You know, is there anything different going forward in your kit? You know, why, why are you doing this?

Mark Pytosh (CEO)

So, you know, Matt, we were—we had sort of gotten prepared for this day. The last two turnarounds, you know, we had upgraded our metallurgy there, and so we were prepared for this day. And quite frankly, when Maduro was removed in Venezuela, that started changing the dynamics in the Western Canadian market, and we saw diffs widen out. And the biggest bang for our buck in the portfolio was to run those barrels as opposed to there were some, you know, the sales price was, you know, the most attractive. So the most attractive option was to be able to run the barrels. And we moved very quickly, so I was very happy with how quickly our team acted on that.

We've been ramping up in January and into February, so, we're taking advantage of that market opportunity. But the best economic value of the barrel was to run it at Coffeyville rather than shipping it all down to the Gulf Coast.

Matthew Blair (Managing Director)

Okay, sounds good. Then, could you talk about the steep rise in RIN prices since the start of the year? You know, basically, how are you dealing with it? Are you looking to blend more of your own barrels, or are you on the market purchasing those RINs? And as part of the M&A effort, would you think about acquiring, you know, more blending capacity or potentially retail to offset some of your RIN exposure?

Mark Pytosh (CEO)

Sure. There's a few questions in there, so I'll try to parse that. But, RINs prices have increased, quite a bit in the first six weeks of the year. I think, we believe that, you know, the... It's not finalized, of course. We're already in 2026, and we don't even have a finalized 2026 RVO, so par for the course there. But, you know, there has been a proposal made. It's supposed to be finalized, you know, any day now, back in September, and we think that high, much high—it's a much higher RVO than we've had historically, and, we think that that's lifted the RINs market.

And just to give you a fact there, the RINs obligation at Wynnewood is our financial obligation, is two to three times what we pay everybody who works at the facility. So just to, you know, level set how you know, what a steep cost it is to us. It is two to three times what we pay all the employees at the facility today. And yes, we are trying to blend more. We're trying to take steps to reduce our overall exposure. And in the acquisition world or development world, we're gonna be looking for ways to either get more blending capacity or moving fuel around or, you know, all the above and try to minimize the impact on us.

But there's no doubt that, you know, we can't hide from the full effect of the RVO. We're going to- we're gonna have some exposure there, but we're gonna try to do everything we can to minimize the cost to the company.

Matthew Blair (Managing Director)

Sounds good. Thanks for your comments.

Operator (participant)

Your last question comes from the line of Alexa Petrick with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Alexa Petrick (Investment Research Analyst)

Hey, good morning, team. Thank you for taking our questions. Wanted to start maybe back on, on Coffeyville. Would love your perspective. There, there's been more initiatives there on improving capture rates, and you've also talked about increasing jet fuel production. Any thoughts on how we can think about kind of the capture rate uplift and some of the moving pieces there going forward?

Mark Pytosh (CEO)

Sure. Yeah, and we, we have a similar number of initiatives going on at Wynnewood, so I don't, you know, don't—we did talk about Coffeyville a lot today, but we, we're pursuing it at both facilities. And, we're not—you know, we're pretty early and not ready to give targets. We're gonna continue to be talking about all of our capture opportunities that we've either done or are pursuing over the coming quarters. So we'll be communicating. The way we are thinking about it is rather than putting a fixed number out there and saying, "That's what our..." You know, it's really a, from my perspective, a cultural shift, where we are constantly looking for those margin capture opportunities because they come in different forms.

In January, the two forms that appeared, that were not on the radar screen, were the winter storm and the Venezuelan situation. We're working together to be able to respond to changes in the market and take advantage. And the issue is the windows open and close, and they're generally open for short periods of time, and so you have to be fast, and you have to respond. And we are working to speed it up and respond to opportunities across the whole platform to be able to take advantage of it. So, we're not putting a target out there at this point, but we will be communicating with you as to our progress on improving our margin capture, and we want it to show up in the results, obviously.

Alexa Petrick (Investment Research Analyst)

Okay, that, that's helpful. And then maybe one follow-up. It, it's been a few months since some of these product pipeline projects were announced, bringing products from the MidCon to the West Coast. Any updated thoughts on how this could change the operating environment dynamic in the MidCon and how you guys are thinking about the next few years there?

Mark Pytosh (CEO)

Yeah, sure. We're—you know, I would just say I'm very optimistic about the Midcontinent for the next several years. Because I think, you know, with the pipelines that are being developed to go to the West and then the Denver, I feel like our, you know, the Group 3 and the Southern, the Southern Plains will is going to begin to look more like, you know, the other parts of the geographies and refining in other parts of the country, where you have other outlets. The biggest issue in the MidCon is seasonally, we have, you know, we have a wide basis, and if we had more outlets for what we're producing, I think that basis would not be as wide.

And so I look out as the infrastructure is being developed, as the MidCon being a pretty attractive place to be, and give us opportunities to be moving fuel to other regions, and especially in times of the year, where seasonally it's softer in the MidCon. So I'm very optimistic about it. It's gonna take some time for all the infrastructure to be put in place, but I think the upside for our company in the MidCon is very good, and I think the MidCon as a market is going to be a lot more attractive in the coming years. So, very optimistic about what's ahead there.

Alexa Petrick (Investment Research Analyst)

That's great. Thank you. I'll turn it over.

Operator (participant)

There are no questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Mark Pytosh for closing remarks.

Mark Pytosh (CEO)

Again, I'd like to thank all of you for your interest in CVR Energy. Additionally, wanted to thank our employees for their hard work and commitment, delivering safe, reliable, and environmentally responsible operations, and we look forward to reviewing our first quarter results, in a couple of months. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude our conference call for today. Thank you all for joining, and you may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.