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CVR ENERGY INC (CVI)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 was dominated by the EPA’s small refinery exemption decision, driving a GAAP net income of $401M, $3.72 EPS and EBITDA of $625M; adjusted EPS was $0.40 and adjusted EBITDA $180M as management stripped the $488M RFS liability benefit and valuation/derivative items .
  • Revenue of $1.944B beat S&P Global consensus of $1.875B*; adjusted EPS $0.40 beat $0.229*; reported EBITDA $625M versus $156M*, with the EBITDA “beat” largely due to the nonrecurring RFS liability adjustment; underlying petroleum adjusted refining margin was $12.87/bbl with crude utilization ~97% .
  • Guidance: Q4 2025 outlook introduced—Petroleum throughput 200–215kbpd; Renewables throughput 10–15MM gal as the Wynnewood RDU reverts to hydrocarbons in December; Fertilizer ammonia utilization 80–85% (turnaround impact); no CVI dividend for Q3 .
  • Strategic pivot: Management will revert the Wynnewood renewable diesel unit back to hydrocarbon service due to unfavorable economics and subsidy uncertainty—retaining optionality to switch back if incentives improve .
  • Potential stock catalysts: clarity on 2025 SRE outcome and RIN purchases (~$100M worst-case), crack spread strength, jet fuel ramp at Coffeyville, debt paydown path informing potential dividend reinstatement discussions .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • EPA SRE decision removed ~424M RINs and recognized a $488M gain, materially reducing RFS obligations and boosting GAAP earnings and EBITDA .
    • Operational execution: combined throughput ~216kbpd, crude utilization 96.6–97%, improved capture rate; adjusted refining margin $12.87/bbl vs $8.23 last year .
    • Fertilizer strength: UAN and ammonia realized prices rose 52% and 33% YoY; Nitrogen Fertilizer EBITDA $71M and Q3 distribution $4.02/unit; CEO: “CVR Partners achieved strong results... with a combined ammonia production rate of 95 percent” .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Renewables underperformance: Q3 renewables margin ~($0.01)/gal, adjusted renewables margin $0.37/gal; depreciation accelerated $31M; decision to mothball pretreatment and revert RDU highlights challenged economics (loss of BTC, higher soybean oil) .
    • Non-GAAP adjustments mask core profitability: $471M favorable change in RFS liability, $18M unfavorable inventory valuation, and $8M unrealized derivative losses—necessitating adjusted views (EBITDA $180M; EPS $0.40) .
    • RIN burden persists: net RINs expense (ex-SRE impact) $88M (~$4.45/bbl) hit capture; pending 2025 waiver creates cash planning risk (estimated ~$100M RIN purchases by March 2026 worst-case) .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Net Sales ($USD Millions)$1,646 $1,761 $1,944
Diluted EPS ($USD)$(1.22) $(1.14) $3.72
Adjusted EPS ($USD)$(0.58) $(0.23) $0.40
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$(61) $(24) $625
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$24 $99 $180
Petroleum Margin MetricsQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Refining Margin per Throughput Barrel ($/bbl)$(0.42) $2.21 $35.65
Adjusted Refining Margin per Throughput Barrel ($/bbl)$7.72 $9.95 $12.87
Direct Operating Expenses per Throughput Barrel ($/bbl)$8.58 $6.45 $5.69
Throughput & UtilizationQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Combined Total Throughput (bpd)120,377 172,149 215,968
Crude Utilization (%)52.7% 76.9% 96.6%
Q3 2025 Actuals vs S&P Global ConsensusActualConsensus*
Revenue ($USD Billions)$1.944 $1.8753*
Adjusted EPS ($USD)$0.40 $0.2290*
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$625 $155.7*

Values with asterisk (*) retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Breakdown

Segment Net Sales ($USD Millions)Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Petroleum$1,477 $1,561 $1,739
Renewables$66 $76 $99
Nitrogen Fertilizer$143 $169 $164
Consolidated$1,646 $1,761 $1,944
Segment EBITDA ($USD Millions)Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Petroleum$(119) $(84) $572
Renewables$6 $(5) $(15)
Nitrogen Fertilizer$53 $67 $71
Consolidated$(61) $(24) $625

KPIs

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Adjusted Renewables Margin ($/gal)$0.94 $0.44 $0.37
Renewables Margin ($/gal)$1.13 $0.38 $(0.01)
Renewable Throughput (gpd)155,943 154,716 207,549
Nitrogen Ammonia Utilization (%)101% 91% 95%
Realized Gate Price – Ammonia ($/ton)$554 $593 $531
Realized Gate Price – UAN ($/ton)$256 $317 $348

YoY Highlights (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024)

MetricQ3 2024Q3 2025
Net Sales ($USD Millions)$1,833 $1,944
Diluted EPS ($USD)$(1.24) $3.72
Adjusted EPS ($USD)$(0.50) $0.40
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$(35) $625
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$63 $180
Adjusted Refining Margin ($/bbl)$8.23 $12.87
Crude Utilization (%)84.7% 96.6%

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Petroleum Total Throughput (bpd)Q4 2025Q3 2025: 200,000–215,000 200,000–215,000 Maintained
Petroleum Crude Utilization (%)Q4 2025Q3 2025: 92–97% 92–97% Maintained
Petroleum Direct Operating Expenses ($MM)Q4 2025Q3 2025: $105–$115 $105–$115 Maintained
Renewables Throughput (MM gal)Q4 2025Q3 2025: 16–20 10–15 Lowered (RDU reversion)
Renewables Utilization (%)Q4 2025Q3 2025: 70–85% 45–65% Lowered
Renewables Direct Operating Expenses ($MM)Q4 2025Q3 2025: $8–$10 $8–$10 Maintained
Nitrogen Ammonia Utilization (%)Q4 2025Q3 2025: 93–98% 80–85% Lowered (turnaround)
Nitrogen Direct Operating Expenses ($MM)Q4 2025Q3 2025: $60–$65 $58–$63 Lowered
Total Capital Expenditures ($MM)Q4 2025Q3 2025: $47–$60 $53–$67 Raised
CVI DividendQ3 2025Q2 2025: No dividend No dividend Maintained
CVR Partners DistributionQ3 2025Q2 2025: $3.89/unit $4.02/unit Raised

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
RFS/SRE and RINsQ1: Unfavorable RFS revaluation ($112M); fighting for waivers . Q2: Unfavorable RFS mark-to-market ($89M); leverage focus .EPA granted full/partial waivers (2019–2024), $488M gain; pending 2025 waiver; net RINs expense $88M; potential ~$100M RIN purchases by Mar-26 worst-case .Improving (backlog resolved), residual risk for 2025
Renewables strategyQ1: Positive margins, higher throughput . Q2: Margins modest; HOBO headwinds .Decision to revert Wynnewood RDU to hydrocarbons in Dec; accelerated depreciation; retain optionality .Pivot away near term
Refining fundamentalsQ1: Lower cracks, Coffeyville turnaround . Q2: Capture improved; throughput ramp .Cracks higher (Group 3 2-1-1 $25.97/bbl); 97% utilization; pipeline projects may improve Mid-Con egress .Strengthening
Fertilizer pricing & opsQ1: Strong production; price mix . Q2: Ammonia +14%, UAN +18% YoY .Ammonia +33%, UAN +52% YoY; EBITDA $71M; distribution raised .Strengthening
Capital allocation & dividendQ1/Q2: No CVI dividend; term loan prepayments ($70M + $20M) .Additional $20M paydown; dividend return tied to leverage and cracks .Deleveraging continues

Management Commentary

  • CEO on SRE impact and positioning: “we recognized a $488 million benefit from the August 2025 decision of the EPA... in addition to 97% crude utilization, higher cracks and an increased capture rate all contributing to third quarter 2025 EBITDA of $625 million... we should be well positioned into the future.”
  • CEO on renewables pivot: “we have made the decision to revert the renewable diesel unit at Wynnewood back to hydrocarbon processing during the next scheduled turnaround in December... we would also retain the option to switch back to renewable diesel service in the future if incentivized to do so.”
  • CFO on underlying profitability: “Excluding [RFS liability impact, inventory valuation, and derivatives], adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $180 million, and adjusted earnings per share was $0.40... realized margin... was $12.87 per barrel, representing a 50% capture rate.”
  • CEO tone on macro: “This setup that I see coming is probably the best I've seen in a long time... refining is going to be short in the future... That just bodes well... for the future on what cracks will look like.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Mid-Con product egress: Management views proposed pipelines west as constructive; shipping commitments undecided; Denver pipeline also relevant .
  • Renewable diesel conversion: Mostly catalyst and minor piping changes; pretreatment unit mothballed; limited capability to run very low-CI feeds; PTC insufficient to offset loss of BTC and feedstock costs .
  • RIN strategy and cash planning: Conservative plan to buy ~$100M of RINs by March 31, 2026 if 2025 SRE is 50%; 100% waiver would reduce needs and allow purchased RINs to be used for Coffeyville forward compliance .
  • Dividend path: Board evaluates quarterly; faster debt reduction aided by elevated cracks could accelerate dividend discussions .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 results vs S&P Global consensus: Revenue $1.944B vs $1.875B* (beat); Adjusted EPS $0.40 vs $0.229* (beat); Reported EBITDA $625M vs $156M* (headline beat), but primarily driven by the $471M favorable RFS liability change and EPA SRE decision; underlying adjusted EBITDA was $180M .
  • Note: S&P Global shows EBITDA actual of ~$628M; company-reported EBITDA is $625M—minor rounding/disclosure discrepancy; anchor to company 8-K for GAAP actuals .
    Values with asterisk (*) retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • The EPA’s SRE decision materially de-risked legacy RFS exposures, boosting Q3 GAAP results; watch for 2025 waiver outcome and potential ~$100M RIN purchases impacting near-term cash .
  • Core refining is healthy: 97% utilization, improved capture to ~50% of Group 3 2-1-1; direct operating costs per barrel fell; pipeline projects could further support Mid-Con realizations .
  • Strategic capital discipline: Additional $20M term loan paydown; management prioritizes deleveraging before resuming dividends; elevated cracks could accelerate board discussions .
  • Renewables pivot reduces drag: RDU reversion should eliminate recurring losses tied to HOBO compression and subsidy uncertainty; maintain optionality if incentives improve .
  • Fertilizer remains a bright spot with strong pricing and distributions; CVI’s 37% stake in CVR Partners supports cash inflows amid tight global inventories .
  • For modeling, use adjusted metrics: Adj. EPS $0.40, Adj. EBITDA $180M; petroleum adjusted refining margin $12.87/bbl; net RINs expense $88M ex-SRE impact .
  • Near-term trading: Monitor crack spreads, RINs, and any EPA updates; medium-term thesis benefits from constrained global refining capacity, steady demand, and internal capture/jet ramp initiatives .