Q1 2024 Earnings Summary
- Strong performance in the Permian Basin, with production at 859,000 barrels per day in the first quarter, better than expected, and an expected exit rate of 900,000 barrels per day by year-end.
- Successful integration of PDC Energy, capturing $500 million in capital expenditure synergies, $100 million more than initial guidance, and ahead of pace for the incremental $1 billion in annual free cash flow.
- Significant future cash flow from Tengizchevroil (TCO), expecting $4 billion of free cash flow in 2025 and $5 billion in 2026 at $60 Brent, as the WPMP and FGP projects progress on schedule.
- Uncertainty around the Hess acquisition due to arbitration timing: The specific scheduling and timeline for the arbitration tribunal regarding the Hess acquisition have not been established, potentially delaying the transaction closure.
- Challenging regulatory environment in California hindering future investments: Chevron acknowledges that the policy environment in California is not favorable for new investments, which could impact operations and growth in the West Coast refining market.
- Reliance on government policies for renewable energy projects may impact returns: Chevron's renewable energy investments, such as biofuels and green hydrogen projects, are heavily influenced by government policies like the Renewable Fuel Standard and the Inflation Reduction Act, making them different from traditional businesses and potentially affecting returns.
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Tengiz Project Impact
Q: What are the incremental benefits from the WPMP start-up at Tengiz?
A: Chevron is pleased with the progress at Tengiz, with the initial start-up of WPMP increasing production reliability and plant capacity. The first PBF compressor is online, processing crude after converting the first metering station, leading to strong well performance. This enhances confidence in keeping the plants full throughout the year, despite upcoming turnarounds. Financially, as the project starts up, CapEx is expected to decline, boosting free cash flow to $4 billion in 2025 and $5 billion in 2026 at $60 Brent. This will flow to Chevron through dividends and loan repayments from TCO. -
Permian Performance
Q: What drove the better-than-expected performance in the Permian, and what's the outlook?
A: First-quarter Permian production was 859,000 barrels per day, down just 1% from Q4 but stronger than anticipated. Factors included strong company-operated performance, improved reliability reducing base decline, shorter frac-to-POP times increasing well count, and better royalty production. Chevron expects to exit the year around 900,000 barrels per day with confidence from adding another frac spread and more wells online. The company is not facing takeaway capacity constraints due to secured capacity. -
Divestment Program
Q: What's the expected cadence for divestments given the Hess deal is on hold?
A: Chevron historically divests about $2 billion per year, aligning with past guidance. The planned $10–$15 billion in divestments upon closing the Hess transaction still stands but is pending closure. Current divestments, independent of the Hess deal, include exits from Myanmar, Congo, Canadian unconventionals (Duvernay), and the Haynesville shale, aiming to high-grade the portfolio. -
Venezuela Operations
Q: How will reinstated export bans on Venezuela impact Chevron?
A: Recent changes to export bans do not affect Chevron, as there have been no changes to General License 41, which governs Chevron's operations in Venezuela. Since the license was issued over a year ago, production at joint ventures increased from 120,000 to 180,000 barrels per day. Financially, Chevron records earnings when it receives cash, which is modest, less than 2% of cash flow from operations in 2023. -
Hess Acquisition Timeline
Q: Can you explain the timeline and arbitration for the Hess acquisition?
A: The Hess acquisition process includes three key steps: the shareholder vote in May, progress on regulatory approval with the FTC expected by midyear, and arbitration scheduling determined by the tribunal. Hess has requested the tribunal hear the case in Q3 with an outcome in Q4, allowing for closure shortly thereafter. -
DJ Basin Production
Q: Can you comment on DJ Basin production and any political risks?
A: First-quarter DJ Basin production exceeded 400,000 barrels per day, higher than long-term guidance. Strong production resulted from bringing more wells online in Q4 and less weather-related downtime. Chevron plans to maintain plateau production around 400,000 barrels per day. On political risks, Chevron works closely with Colorado legislators and remains confident in responsible development despite occasional policy noise. -
Capital Spending on New Energies
Q: What percent of capital spend is directed towards New Energies, and how do margins compare?
A: Chevron plans to spend about $10 billion on New Energies from 2022 through 2028, within a disciplined capital program averaging $16 billion per year. The majority of spending remains on traditional energy due to current demand. While returns in new energy projects are influenced by policy incentives, Chevron invests where it sees confidence in achieving good returns over time. -
Future Energy Fund III
Q: What successes led to launching Future Energy Fund III, and how does it differ from prior funds?
A: After investing in over 30 companies through Funds I and II, Chevron launched the $300 million Future Energy Fund III to continue supporting innovation in energy transition technologies. Prior funds focused on areas like industrial decarbonization and hydrogen, yielding both technological advancements and financial returns. The new fund aims to invest in emerging technologies that complement Chevron's existing capabilities. -
Renewable Projects
Q: What supports confidence in the new renewable projects like biofuels and solar to hydrogen?
A: Chevron sanctioned two renewable projects: an oilseed processing plant in Louisiana (with Bunge) offering feedstock flexibility, and a green hydrogen project in California producing about one metric ton per day. These projects leverage existing infrastructure and partnerships, aligning with Chevron's strategy to integrate across the value chain. Regulatory incentives like the Low Carbon Fuel Standard and Inflation Reduction Act also underpin project economics. -
West Coast Refining
Q: How is Chevron viewing the West Coast refining market amid regulatory challenges?
A: Chevron maintains a strong position in California, operating refineries with advantaged logistics and strong brand presence. Regulatory pressures have led to capacity reductions, tightening supply-demand balance and potentially elevating margins. While Chevron continues to operate reliably in the state, it is cautious about new investments due to the regulatory climate. -
Exploration in Namibia
Q: What is Chevron's view on exploration opportunities in Namibia?
A: Chevron holds interests in Block 90 and newly acquired Block 82 offshore Namibia, on trend with recent industry discoveries. Plans are to spud the first exploration well late this year or early next, with drilling completing in early 2025. Chevron is encouraged by regional successes and sees strong prospectivity in these blocks. -
Retail Marketing Strategy
Q: Does the recent deal adding 200 retail stations signal a strategy shift?
A: Chevron entered agreements to add over 200 stations on the Gulf and West Coasts, supporting retailers' investments in brand conversion. These are supply agreements, not owned assets, aligning with Chevron's model where it owns less than 5% of branded U.S. stations. The deals are part of ongoing business to grow branded sales and do not represent a strategic shift. -
Eastern Mediterranean Operations
Q: Can you update on operations in the Eastern Mediterranean and Egypt exploration?
A: Operations in the Eastern Mediterranean are back to full capacity after a temporary shutdown. Chevron is increasing production at Tamar and Leviathan fields by over 10%, with further growth projects planned. In Egypt, Chevron plans to appraise the Argus discovery and drill new exploration wells, seeing significant prospectivity in the region. -
Cash Balance and Debt
Q: Will Chevron repay the commercial paper issued in Q1, and what's the cash outlook?
A: Chevron issued commercial paper in Q1 for short-term liquidity due to timing of dividends and cash repatriation. The company targets holding around $5 billion in cash, balancing liquidity needs without excess cash drag. Repayment of commercial paper will depend on cash flows, but Chevron maintains access to ample liquidity. -
TCO Project Risk Management
Q: How does WPMP start-up at Tengiz help de-risk FGP ramp-up?
A: The successful commissioning and start-up processes of WPMP provide confidence for similar activities in FGP due to project integration and operational similarities. Progress at WPMP, including strong field performance, reads across to de-risking FGP milestones and achieving planned production increases.