CHEVRON CORP (CVX) Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

Q4 2024 headline: net income $3.24B ($1.84 diluted EPS), adjusted earnings $3.63B ($2.06), with $722M FX gain; special items totaled ~$1.12B (severance/impairments) . Cash from operations was $8.7B; free cash flow $4.4B .
Sequential softness driven by lower refining/chemicals margins, timing effects, and upstream items (ARO revisions, inventory valuation); CFO: “Adjusted earnings were [about $900M] lower QoQ” and “foreign currency gains were $720M” . U.S. Downstream posted a loss (-$348MM) amid weaker margins and severance/impairment charges .
Strategic catalysts intact: first oil at TCO FGP with ramp to ~1 Mboe/d within ~3 months, TCO distributions guided to ~$5B in 2025 and ~$6B in 2026; GoM Anchor/Whale online, Ballymore mid-2025; Permian exceeded 1 Mboe/d in December and targets 9–10% growth in 2025 while prioritizing FCF .
Capital returns and guidance: dividend raised 5% to $1.71/qtr; buybacks to remain $10–$20B/year; organic capex to stay in $14–$16B range; targeting $2–$3B structural cost reductions by end-2026 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- TCO first oil and rapid ramp: “FGP adds 260,000 bpd… expect full production ~1 Mboe/d within the next 3 months,” enabling higher affiliate distributions ($5B 2025; $6B 2026) and confirmed by the first-oil press release .
- U.S. upstream execution: Q4 U.S. production hit a record 1,646 Mboe/d; Permian volume topped 1 Mboe/d in December; 2025 Permian growth guided to 9–10% with capex moderation to emphasize FCF .
- Portfolio/cost agenda: 2024 production records (7% global, 19% U.S.), asset sales closed, dividend raised, and $2–$3B structural cost reduction target reiterated .
What Went Wrong
- Downstream weakness: U.S. Downstream lost $348MM in Q4 on lower refined product margins, higher opex (severance), and impairments; International Downstream earnings also fell YoY .
- QoQ earnings decline: CFO cited lower refining/chem margins, timing effects, and upstream ARO and inventory valuation items lowering adjusted earnings vs Q3 .
- Cash flow ex-WC headwinds: CFFO ex-WC $5.3B vs $8.3B in Q3; CFO flagged ~$1.5B Canadian sale-related tax in CFFO ex-WC, ~$0.5B special-item cash impact, and ~~$0.5B other factors (~~$2.5B total headwind) .

Financial Results

Headline metrics vs prior year and prior quarter (units indicated)

Metric	Q4 2023	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Total Revenues & Other Income ($USD Billions)	$47.18	$50.67	$52.23
Net Income Attributable ($USD Billions)	$2.26	$4.49	$3.24
Diluted EPS ($)	$1.22	$2.48	$1.84
Adjusted EPS ($)	$3.45	$2.51	$2.06
Cash From Operations ($USD Billions)	$12.4	$9.7	$8.7
Free Cash Flow ($USD Billions)	$8.1	$5.6	$4.4

Segment earnings ($USD Millions)

Segment Earnings	Q4 2023	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
U.S. Upstream	-1,347	1,946	1,420
International Upstream	2,933	2,643	2,884
U.S. Downstream	470	146	-348
International Downstream	677	449	100
All Other	-474	-697	-817

KPI snapshot

KPI	Q4 2023	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Net Oil-Equivalent Production (MBOED)	3,392	3,364	3,350
ROCE (%)	5.1%	10.1%	7.6%
Capex ($USD Billions)	$4.4	$4.1	$4.3
Net Debt Ratio (%)	7.3%	11.9%	10.4%
Debt Ratio (%)	11.5%	14.2%	13.9%
CFFO ex Working Capital ($USD Billions)	$11.4	$8.3	$5.3
FCF ex Working Capital ($USD Billions)	$7.1	$4.2	$1.0

Operational KPIs (selected)

Upstream/Downstream KPI	Q4 2023	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
U.S. Upstream liquids realization ($/bbl)	$58.69	$54.86	$53.12
U.S. Upstream gas realization ($/mcf)	$1.62	$0.55	$1.62
U.S. Upstream net production (MBOED)	1,598	1,605	1,646
International Upstream net production (MBOED)	1,794	1,759	1,704
U.S. refinery crude inputs (MBD)	950	995	893
Int’l refinery crude inputs (MBD)	634	628	651
U.S. refined product sales (MBD)	1,298	1,312	1,257
Int’l refined product sales (MBD)	1,437	1,507	1,557

Notes on non-GAAP: adjusted earnings exclude impairments, decommissioning, severance, unusual tax, pension items, FX; Q4 special items were $(1,115)MM after-tax; FX +$722MM .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Organic Capex	2025–2026	$14–$16B (multi-year framework reiterated through 2024)	Remain within $14–$16B; mix shifts from Permian/GoM to other portfolio as ramp proceeds	Maintained
Affiliate Capex	2025–2026	Elevated during TCO/CPChem project phase	“Expected to trend down further as TCO/CPChem come online”	Lower
Structural cost reductions	By end-2026	Target $2–$3B (from 2024 base)	Target $2–$3B; $1.5–$2.0B in 2025, full $2–$3B by 2026	Maintained, phased plan clarified
Share repurchases	Ongoing	~$17.5B annual run-rate (within $10–$20B range implicitly)	“Maintain buyback range of $10–$20B per year depending on market”	Framed as range
Dividend	Q1 2025	$1.63/qtr declared in Q3 2024	$1.71/qtr (+5%), payable Mar 10, 2025	Raised
Production growth (ex divestments)	2025–2026	2024 full-year to finish top end of 4–7%	~6% CAGR through 2026; 2025 growth 2H-weighted (TCO/GoM ramps)	New multi-year visibility
TCO distributions to CVX	2025–2026	Analyst-referenced $4B (2025) / $5B (2026) prior slide context	$5B (2025) / $6B (2026) (includes loan repayments/dividends)	Raised vs prior discussion (analyst ref.)
GoM production	By 2026	~300 Kb/d target	~300 Kb/d reiterated; Ballymore mid-2025	Maintained
Permian	2025–2026	FY24 growth ~top of 4–7% consolidated; Permian commentary improving	Permian 2025 growth 9–10%; 2026 lower; emphasize FCF at >1 Mboe/d plateau	Sharpened trajectory

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Q2 2024 (Q-2)	Q3 2024 (Q-1)	Q4 2024 (Current)	Trend
AI/Power initiatives	ACES green hydrogen progress; Geismar renewable diesel commissioning	—	New “power foundries” JV with Engine No. 1 and GE Vernova; seven GE 7HA turbines reserved; behind-the-meter data-center power; flexible CCS integration	Expanding into dispatchable power for AI/data centers
TCO/FGP ramp	FGP 1H25 startup on track; WPMP progress	Commissioning milestones; cost/schedule unchanged; FGP initial startup 1Q25	First oil achieved; ramp to ~1 Mboe/d in ~3 months; affiliate distributions detailed	Execution derisked; cash flow inflection
Permian	Record production; triple frac; FY24 ~15% growth outlook	Strong Delaware well performance; 2024 top-end growth	December >1 Mboe/d; 2025 +9–10%; tilt to FCF, capex moderation	Transitioning to FCF plateau
GoM	Anchor imminent	Anchor startup; GoM to 300 Kb/d by 2026	Anchor/Whale online; Ballymore mid-2025; high-margin barrels emphasized	Multiple ramps in 2025–26
Downstream	Turnarounds impacted capture; mid-cycle normalization expected	Mixed; improving CPChem margins; refinery turnarounds	Q4 U.S. loss; weaker margins; cadence of turnarounds lighter in 2025	Near-term pressure; focus on flexibility/cost
Policy/Macro	Hess arbitration timeline noted	Hess FTC cleared; arbitration continues	Balanced U.S. energy policy tone; Venezuela license compliance reiterated	Constructive policy environment in U.S.
Cost program	Cost discipline emphasized	$2–$3B structural cuts by 2026 announced/underway	$1.5–$2.0B 2025, full $2–$3B by 2026; tech/standardization/asset sales	Execution phase with 2025 weighting

Management Commentary

“We expect to add $10 billion of annual free cash flow in 2026, led by growth in advantaged upstream assets… with additional production from FGP and… Anchor and Whale continue to ramp up.” — Mike Wirth, CEO .
“Organic CapEx is expected to remain within our $14–$16 billion guidance range… Affiliate CapEx is expected to trend down further… We’re targeting $2–$3 billion in structural cost reductions by the end of 2026.” — Eimear Bonner, CFO .
“We announced a 5% increase in the dividend… marking the 30th consecutive year with an annual increase… intend to maintain a buyback range of $10–$20 billion per year.” — Eimear Bonner, CFO .
On AI power: “We operate nearly 5 GW of reliable… power… We don’t envision ourselves as a merchant power player… behind-the-meter doesn’t further tax an already taxed distribution infrastructure.” — Mike Wirth, CEO .
“In 2024, we delivered record production, returned record cash to shareholders and started up key growth projects.” — Mike Wirth (news release) .

Q&A Highlights

Cash flow quality: CFO walked through ~$2.5B of Q4 CFFO ex-WC headwinds (Canada tax ~$1.5B, special items ~$0.5B, affiliate/commercial ~$0.5B) to normalize underlying run-rate into 2025 .
TCO distributions/guidance: $5B (2025) and $6B (2026) to Chevron including loan repayments and dividends; OpEx expected to trend down as steady-state achieved .
Permian strategy: December exceeded 1 Mboe/d; 2025 growth 9–10%, lower in 2026; shift from growth to sustained FCF at >1 Mboe/d with lower capex intensity .
Downstream outlook: Q4 was a “perfect storm” of weak margins, inventory accounting, turnarounds, and impairments; lighter turnarounds planned in 2025 .
Capex discipline: Capex could land anywhere within $14–$16B based on opportunity set; continued capital efficiency and portfolio optimization; buybacks maintained .

Estimates Context

We attempted to retrieve S&P Global (Capital IQ) consensus for Q4 2024 EPS/Revenue/EBITDA but were unable to due to API request limits at the time of query. We therefore do not present vs-consensus beats/misses here. Values would be sourced from S&P Global when available.
- Primary EPS Consensus Mean (Q4 2024): unavailable due to limit (S&P Global)*
- Revenue Consensus Mean (Q4 2024): unavailable due to limit (S&P Global)*
- EBITDA Consensus Mean (Q4 2024): unavailable due to limit (S&P Global)*
Implications: Given downstream margin pressure and Q4-specific cash flow headwinds, Street estimates for 2025 segment mix/FCF may drift higher on upstream ramps (TCO/GoM) and lower affiliate capex, while near-term downstream estimates could reset lower pending margin recovery .

Key Takeaways for Investors

2025–2026 FCF acceleration credibly underpinned by TCO (FGP/WPMP) ramp and GoM startups; management guides to +$10B annual FCF by 2026 and higher TCO distributions ($5B/$6B) — strong medium-term cash return support .
Near-term earnings/cash softness is largely transitory (special items, tax/timing, downstream margins); management detailed normalized cash flow bridge and expects production growth to be 2H-weighted in 2025 .
Capital returns remain priority: dividend raised to $1.71; buybacks $10–$20B/year maintained; balance sheet conservative (net debt ratio ~10%) enabling through-cycle distributions .
Permian entering FCF-harvest mode: >1 Mboe/d plateau, 2025 growth 9–10%, capex moderation to drive durable FCF .
Watch downstream recovery and execution on cost-out: $1.5–$2.0B savings targeted in 2025 (toward $2–$3B by 2026) with tech/standardization and portfolio actions . A downstream margins rebound would be upside to earnings leverage .
New AI power initiative offers optionality with limited capex displacement and potential CCS integration; behind-the-meter model avoids grid bottlenecks and could open a differentiated growth adjacency .
Risk watchlist: Hess arbitration timeline, downstream margins, policy shifts; management underscores confidence in Hess position and a more balanced U.S. energy policy stance .

References: Q4 2024 8-K earnings press release and attachments ; Q4 2024 earnings call transcript ; Supplemental press releases on TCO first oil and AI power JV ; Prior quarters Q3 2024 8-K and call ; Q2 2024 call for trend context .

*Values retrieved from S&P Global (Capital IQ) when available.