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DE

DOMINION ENERGY, INC (D)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 GAAP diluted EPS was $0.15 and operating EPS (non-GAAP) was $0.58; operating revenue was $3.40B. Year-over-year, GAAP EPS declined from $0.37 while operating EPS rose from $0.29; operating revenue declined from $3.53B .
  • 2025 operating EPS guidance was narrowed to $3.28–$3.52 per share, preserving the $3.40 midpoint; long-term 5–7% operating EPS CAGR through 2029 reaffirmed (off 2025 midpoint excluding RNG 45Z) .
  • Dominion lifted its 2025–2029 capital plan to $50B (+16% vs prior), driven by data-center load growth; ~60% is recoverable via riders, ~80% of the increase is at DEV; financing plan includes ~$1.1B of 2025 equity via ATM/DRIP and forward sales already executed .
  • CVOW is ~50% complete and on schedule for 2026; project cost was updated to $10.7B (ex-financing) due to PJM network upgrade/interconnection costs; LCOE revised to ~$62/MWh; robust customer/shareholder cost-sharing and Stonepeak 50% noncontrolling financing reduce shareholder risk .
  • Stock narrative catalysts: extraordinary data-center pipeline growth (contracted ~40 GW, SE LOA ~26 GW, ESA ~9 GW) and accelerated transmission build, underpinning multi-year rate-base expansion in a constructive regulatory framework .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • “We delivered 2024 operating earnings per share in the top half of our guidance range despite worse-than-normal weather…” (Bob Blue) .
    • CVOW execution: 50% complete, on-schedule for 2026; transition pieces, substations and turbine manufacturing progressing; cost-sharing protects customers and shareholders .
    • Demand tailwinds: data-center contracted pipeline expanded to ~40 GW; DEV sales supported by data centers (~26% of sales) and electrification .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Q4 2024 GAAP EPS fell to $0.15 vs $0.37 in Q4 2023, reflecting non-GAAP exclusions (NDT, hedging, pensions, asset retirements, discontinued ops) despite operating EPS strength .
    • CVOW total project cost increased ~9% to $10.7B; customer bill impact expected to average ~$0.43/month over life of project; LCOE increased to ~$62/MWh from ~$56/MWh .
    • Financing headwinds: plan modestly increases external financing across debt/hybrids/equity; 2025 equity needs addressed via ATM/DRIP/forward sales (~$1.1B) .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Operating Revenue ($USD Millions)$3,486 $3,941 $3,400
Income from Operations ($USD Millions)$805 $1,218 $391
GAAP Net Income Attributable ($USD Millions)$572 $954 $145
GAAP Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.65 $1.12 $0.15
Operating EPS (non-GAAP) ($USD)$0.65 $0.98 $0.58
MetricQ4 2023Q4 2024
Operating Revenue ($USD Millions)$3,534 $3,400
GAAP Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.37 $0.15
Operating EPS (non-GAAP) ($USD)$0.29 $0.58
Operating Earnings (non-GAAP) ($USD Millions)$260 $504
Segment Operating Earnings ($USD Millions)Q4 2023Q4 2024
Dominion Energy Virginia$369 $440
Dominion Energy South Carolina$75 $102
Contracted Energy$(19) $54
Corporate & Other$(165) $(92)
Total Operating Earnings$260 $504
Operational KPIsQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Data-center contracted capacity (GW)—~21 ~40
SE LOA pipeline (GW)~8 ~8 ~26
CLOA pipeline (GW)~6 ~6 ~5
ESA contracted (GW)~8 ~8 ~9
Data centers connected YTD (#)9 14 (expect 16) —
CVOW completion (%)~33% ~43% ~50%

Notes:

  • Significant non-GAAP adjustments included NDT gains/losses, hedging mark-to-market, pension/OPEB mark-to-market, regulated/nonregulated charges, and discontinued ops; see schedules for detail .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Operating EPS (non-GAAP)FY 2025$3.25–$3.54 per share $3.28–$3.52 per share (midpoint $3.40) Narrowed
Long-term Operating EPS Growth2025–20295%–7% 5%–7% (off 2025 midpoint excluding RNG 45Z) Maintained
Capital Investment2025–2029Prior plan (unspecified)$50B; +16% vs prior; ~60% rider recovery; ~80% increase at DEV Raised
Dividend PolicyOngoingMaintain $2.67 per year Maintain $2.67 per year; Q1 dividend $0.6675 declared Maintained
CVOW LCOEProject~$56/MWh (Nov 2024) ~$62/MWh Raised
CVOW Total Cost (ex-financing)Project$9.8B $10.7B Raised
Credit MetricsOngoingParent leverage <30%, FFO/debt ~15%; mid-BBB parent, single-A OPCOs Unchanged Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ2 2024 (Q-2)Q3 2024 (Q-1)Q4 2024 (Current)Trend
Data-center growth / AIExpect DEV sales growth 4.5–5.5%; 15 DC connections in 2024; accelerated transmission build Contracted pipeline ~21 GW (8/6/8 GW SE/CLOA/ESA); 14 YTD connections; two 500kV lines progressing Contracted pipeline ~40 GW; SE LOA ~26 GW; ESA ~9 GW; DC sales ~26% of DEV; 6 GW incremental capacity from two 500kV lines Strongly up
CVOW execution / costsLCOE ~$73/MWh; ~33% complete; contingency ~$143M LCOE ~$56/MWh; ~43% complete; transmission rider $640M; Charybdis ~93% ~50% complete; cost to $10.7B (PJM upgrades); LCOE ~$62/MWh; contingency ~5% of remaining; robust cost-sharing Mixed (execution solid; costs up)
Tariffs/macro (steel/aluminum)——Too early to assess; remaining ex-US spend ~$2.5B; finished components may avoid tariffs; contingency $200M; Stonepeak sharing Watchful
Regulatory (VA biennial)—Filed IRP with more renewables/storage/gas; rates below averages Straightforward case; rates below regional/national averages; constructive environment Constructive
Regulatory (SC lag)Settlement on electric case; net ~1% bill impact; under-earning due to lag Under-earning; legislative focus; potential securitization of storm costs 80–90 bps immediate under-earning; 100–200 bps over cycle; seeking mechanisms to reduce lag Ongoing issue
Financing / equity planHybrid notes, ATM & DRIP issuance; derisking via asset sales Achieved 2024 financing; head-start on 2025 ATM 2025 equity: $600M forward-settled ATM sold, $200M DRIP, ~$300M ATM; balanced mix to preserve credit metrics Incrementally higher
Millstone nuclear / SMRExploring SMR RFP; strong asset value Considering uprates; New England procurement and DC co-location options Engaging stakeholders; additionality not essential; hedged output; legislative activity supportive Developing
Transmission JPA (AEP/FE)—PJM open window proposals; prior awards 150 projects / $2.5B Shortlisted; Dominion share ~$1B incremental; annual T capex >$2.8B from 2027 Up

Management Commentary

  • “We delivered 2024 operating earnings per share in the top half of our guidance range despite worse-than-normal weather…” (Bob Blue) .
  • “We’ve updated our five-year capital forecast… to fifty billion dollars… 60% of the updated capital spend will be eligible for recovery under rider mechanisms… approximately 80% of the capital increase is at Dominion Energy Virginia…” (Steven Ridge) .
  • “CVOW is 50% complete and on schedule for completion in 2026… represents the fastest and most economical way to deliver 2.6 gigawatts… robust bipartisan support… ~2,000 jobs and $2 billion in economic activity” (Bob Blue) .
  • “Of the $900 million [CVOW] cost increase, 80% or $700 million is expected to be recovered via rider… 50% of the non-recoverable portion… borne by Stonepeak” (Bob Blue) .

Q&A Highlights

  • CVOW costs and tariffs: management emphasized finished components likely exempt from steel/aluminum tariffs (if structured like 2018), contingency of ~$200M, and 50/50 cost sharing with Stonepeak for unrecoverable portions; project remains on schedule .
  • Data-center pipeline visibility: SE LOA stage (~26 GW) not yet reflected in PJM forecasts; two 500kV lines add ~6 GW of capacity in Eastern Loudoun; broader expansion into Richmond and down I‑95 corridor .
  • Virginia biennial: constructive setup with reliability track record and rates below averages; expected resolution by November, nothing exotic anticipated .
  • South Carolina under-earning: DESC can under-earn 80–90 bps immediately after rate case; 100–200 bps on average over the cycle; pursuing legislative/mechanistic remedies .
  • Conversion timeline: batch process extends timeline; typical speed-to-market 4–7 years from initiation to ESA/power delivery; bespoke by siting/delivery points .

Estimates Context

  • Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q4 2024 EPS, revenue, and EBITDA could not be retrieved due to data-access limits at time of writing; comparisons to Wall Street estimates are therefore not shown. Values would be sourced from S&P Global when available.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Operating execution remains solid: Q4 operating EPS $0.58 vs $0.29 last year; segment strength across DEV, DESC, and Contracted Energy drove non-GAAP earnings growth despite GAAP headwinds .
  • Structural demand tailwinds: unprecedented data-center pipeline momentum (contracted ~40 GW; SE LOA ~26 GW) and transmission approvals should sustain multi-year capex and rate-base growth under rider mechanisms .
  • CVOW risk profile improved despite higher onshore/PJM costs: schedule intact, contingency refreshed, strong cost-sharing with Stonepeak and customer protections; LCOE remains competitive at ~$62/MWh .
  • Financing plan is balanced to preserve credit: modestly higher external financing with ~$1.1B equity actions in 2025; targets mid‑BBB parent and single‑A operating companies unchanged .
  • Regulatory posture constructive: Virginia biennial expected straightforward; South Carolina lag acknowledged with active pursuit of remedies; both jurisdictions emphasize affordability and reliability .
  • Dividend stability: policy to maintain $2.67/year until payout aligns with industry; quarterly dividend declared at $0.6675 for March payment .
  • Watch items: PJM network upgrade finalization mid-year; potential tariff developments; cadence of data-center conversion from SE LOA/CLOA to ESA; biennial outcomes and SC legislation .