Executive Summary

Record September quarter adjusted revenue of $15.2B (+4.1% YoY) and adjusted EPS of $1.71, landing at the top end of internal expectations amid stronger premium, loyalty and rebounding corporate demand .
Results beat Wall Street consensus: adjusted EPS $1.71 vs $1.53 consensus, and GAAP revenue $16.67B vs $15.99B consensus; EBITDA modestly above consensus as well (see Estimates Context; values from S&P Global)* .
Guidance tightened/raised: FY25 adjusted EPS “approximately $6” (upper half of July guidance) and FCF lifted to $3.5–$4.0B; 4Q25 EPS $1.60–$1.90 with operating margin 10.5–12% and revenue up 2–4% YoY .
Near-term catalysts: momentum in premium and corporate travel, improved domestic unit revenue, a step-up in Transatlantic unit revenue for 4Q, and a dividend declaration of $0.1875 payable Nov 6, 2025 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Premium, loyalty and Amex: premium revenue +9% YoY; loyalty revenue +9%; Amex remuneration $2.0B (+12%), supporting durable high-margin streams .
Domestic and corporate: domestic unit revenue +2% YoY; corporate sales +8% YoY with sequential improvement across sectors; surveys show ~90% of companies expect travel volumes to increase or remain steady in 2026 (“5 points higher than last year”) .
Cost execution: non-fuel CASM growth ~flat YoY; adjusted fuel price down 11% YoY to $2.25/gal; free cash flow $833M in 3Q and gross leverage 2.4x, reflecting disciplined capital and debt paydown .
Quote: “We delivered September quarter results at the top end of our expectations on a combination of strong execution and improving fundamentals” – CEO Ed Bastian .

What Went Wrong

Transatlantic softness: Atlantic unit revenue −7% YoY and revenue −2%; management cited booking curve misreads and “spring swoon” affecting late-summer main cabin demand, promising a more aggressive 2026 approach .
Main cabin pressure: 3Q main cabin ticket revenue fell −4% YoY even as premium grew, highlighting cabin-mix shift; load factor fell 1 pt YoY to 86% .
Cargo choppiness expected: cargo +19% YoY in 3Q, but management cautioned 4Q likely below 3Q growth pace .
Analyst concern: sustainability of MRO strength (60%+ YoY in 2Q–3Q) likely normalizes to low double-digit over time (closer to flat in 4Q) .

Financial Results

Metric	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025	Consensus Q3 2025
Operating Revenue (GAAP, $B)	$15.68	$16.65	$16.67	$15.99*
Operating Revenue (Adjusted, $B)	$14.59	$15.51	$15.20	—
Diluted EPS (GAAP, $)	$1.97	$3.27	$2.17	—
Adjusted EPS (Non-GAAP, $)	$1.50	$2.10	$1.71	$1.53*
Operating Margin (Adjusted, %)	9.4%	13.2%	11.2%	—
Pre-tax Margin (Adjusted, %)	8.6%	11.6%	9.8%	—
TRASM (Adjusted, c)	19.16	19.97	19.22	—
CASM-Ex (c)	13.30	13.49	13.35	—

Segment Revenue and Unit Metrics (3Q25)	Revenue ($M)	YoY Change	Unit Revenue (YoY)	Yield (YoY)	Capacity (YoY)
Domestic	$9,103	+5%	+2%	+4%	+4%
Atlantic	$2,977	−2%	−7%	−5%	+5%
Latin America	$759	−3%	—	+1%	−2%
Pacific	$667	+3%	−4%	−6%	+7%
Cargo	$233	+19%	—	—	—

KPIs	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
TRASM (c)	20.58	21.44	21.09
TRASM (Adjusted, c)	19.16	19.97	19.22
CASM-Ex (c)	13.30	13.49	13.35
Load Factor (%)	87%	86%	86%
Avg Fuel Price/gal (Adj, $)	$2.53	$2.26	$2.25
Operating Cash Flow ($M)	1,274	1,856	1,847
Free Cash Flow ($M)	95	733	833
Adjusted Net Debt ($M)	18,682	16,316	15,586
Air Traffic Liability ($M)	7,094	8,893	8,165

Non-GAAP adjustments: GAAP diluted EPS ($2.17) exceeds adjusted EPS ($1.71) largely due to $311M MTM gains on investments and other items removed in adjusted results .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Total Revenue YoY	4Q25	—	Up 2–4%	New
Operating Margin	4Q25	—	10.5–12%	New
Adjusted EPS	4Q25	—	$1.60–$1.90	New
Adjusted EPS	FY25	$5.25–$6.25 (restored in July)	Approximately $6 (upper half of July guidance)	Tightened upward
Free Cash Flow ($B)	FY25	$3–$4	$3.5–$4	Raised (midpoint)
Gross Leverage	FY25	<2.5x	<2.5x; ended 3Q at 2.4x	Maintained
Non-fuel CASM growth	FY25	Low single digits	Low single digits; YTD <2%	Maintained
Quarterly Dividend	Sep Qtr	Announced 25% increase beginning Sep Qtr	Declared $0.1875 per share; payable Nov 6, 2025	Increased (implemented)

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Q1 2025 Mentions	Q2 2025 Mentions	Q3 2025 Current Period	Trend
Premiumization	Premium +7% YoY; strong card acquisition; Amex $2.0B (+13%)	Premium +5% YoY; diverse revenue streams 59% of total	Premium +9% YoY; 60% of adjusted revenue; retention mid-80% and growing seat mix	Strengthening; accelerating mix shift
Corporate travel	Low-single-digit YoY; moderation in Feb–Mar	Low-single-digit YoY; steady	+8% YoY; Sep +9%; strong coastal hubs; capacity rationalization helps	Reaccelerating
Domestic unit revenue	Soft start to year	Unit revenue −4% YoY; expected improvement 2H	Turned positive; +2% YoY	Improving
Transatlantic	+5% YoY; unit revenue +8%	+2% revenue; strong demand	Unit revenue −7% YoY; management tactical changes for 2026	Weaker in summer; expected improvement in 4Q
Loyalty/Amex	Record Amex remuneration; resilient	$2.0B (+10%) in quarter	$2.0B (+12%); long-term goal $10B	Sustained growth
Costs	Non-fuel CASM +2.6% YoY	+2.7% YoY; best performance expected in Sep quarter	~flat YoY; YTD <2%	Improving
Supply/demand	Align capacity; reduce H2 growth to flat	Rationalizing supply; peers adjusting	Competitive capacity down in hubs; industry bifurcation	Favorable balance

Management Commentary

Strategic message: “Delta's competitive advantages and differentiation have never been more evident… we delivered September quarter results at the top end of our expectations” – CEO Ed Bastian .
Revenue outlook: “For the December quarter, we expect total revenue growth of 2–4%… with meaningful improvement in Transatlantic unit revenue” – President Glen Hauenstein .
Cost and cash: “Non-fuel unit cost growth was approximately flat… free cash flow of $3.5–$4B for the full year… gross leverage 2.4x” – CFO Dan Janki .
Premium demand durability: “Premium products used to be loss leaders, and now they're the highest margin products… retention rates are in the mid-80%” – Glen Hauenstein .
Corporate recovery: “That 8%… September was 9%… momentum here with corporate… across all segments” – Dan Janki .

Q&A Highlights

Corporate demand and seasonality: Corporate sales +8% in 3Q; +9% in September; improving across hubs; 4Q earnings at or above 3Q due to strong premium and corporate demand .
Premium profitability and seat mix: Premium now highest-margin; Delta Premium Select margins converging with Delta One; incremental premium seats via retrofits (25–30%) and new deliveries .
Transatlantic corrective actions: Management will book earlier at more aggressive pricing and smooth capacity across shoulder months in 2026 to address 3Q main cabin weakness .
Cargo/MRO sustainability: Cargo strong in 3Q but “choppiness” expected in 4Q; MRO growth likely normalizes from 60%+ to closer to flat in 4Q and double-digit longer term .
Macro and industry structure: Capacity rationalization in hubs; industry bifurcation likely to continue, necessitating rationalization for lower-end price segment carriers .

Estimates Context

Metric	Q3 2025 Consensus	Q3 2025 Actual	Outcome
Primary EPS (Adjusted, $)	1.53*	1.71	Beat (approx +$0.18)
Revenue (GAAP, $B)	15.99*	16.67	Beat (approx +$0.68B)
EBITDA ($B)	2.24*	2.27*	Slight beat

Values retrieved from S&P Global*. Results suggest upward revisions to FY EPS (management at approximately $6, upper half of prior range) and modestly improved 4Q assumptions (unit revenue improvement domestically and Transatlantic) .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Mix shift to premium is accelerating and margin-accretive; expect continued seat mix gains and loyalty/Amex tailwinds into 2026 .
Corporate demand has reaccelerated with strong coastal hub performance; supports 4Q earnings comparable or slightly above 3Q .
Transatlantic weakness in 3Q appears tactical/seasonal; management expects step-change improvement in 4Q and a redesigned approach in 2026 .
Cost discipline is holding: non-fuel CASM ~flat YoY and fuel costs lower; free cash flow tracking $3.5–$4.0B with debt paydown continuing .
Guidance implies a constructive setup: 4Q revenue +2–4%, margin 10.5–12%, EPS $1.60–$1.90; FY EPS “~$6” in upper half of range .
Dividend at $0.1875 is supported by cash generation; continued deleveraging (gross leverage 2.4x) provides balance sheet flexibility .
Near-term trading: Positive estimate revisions risk and 4Q momentum in premium/corporate are supportive; watch Transatlantic unit trends and cargo/MRO normalization for 4Q prints .

DELTA AIR LINES, INC. (DAL)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary