Executive Summary

Record December quarter: adjusted operating revenue $14.44B (+5.7% YoY), adjusted EPS $1.85, and adjusted operating margin 12.0%; revenue landed ahead of prior guidance and EPS at the top end, driven by premium/loyalty and Transatlantic strength .
Company raised the near-term outlook: March quarter (Q1 2025) revenue +7–9% YoY, operating margin 6–8%, EPS $0.70–$1.00; full-year 2025 EPS “> $7.35” and FCF “> $4B,” with leverage ≤2x, reinforcing durability and cash generation .
Operating efficiency held: CASM-Ex up 3.3% YoY in Q4, fuel price down ~22% YoY; adjusted fuel expense -18% YoY; robust cash generation (Q4 adj OCF $1.8B, FCF $678M) supports debt reduction and investment-grade balance sheet across all 3 agencies .
Catalysts: premium mix/outperformance, Transatlantic tailwinds, corporate sales up double digits, and technology-driven loyalty initiatives (Delta Sync, new Uber/YouTube partnerships) underpin margin and revenue mix expansion, positioning for record FY25 profitability .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Premium and loyalty revenue mix: 57% of adjusted revenue in 2024; premium revenue growth outpaced main cabin by 6 points in Q4; Amex remuneration nearly $2B (+14% YoY) in Q4 and ~$7.4B for 2024 .
Transatlantic strength and international improvement: Transatlantic unit revenue +6% YoY; international passenger revenue +6% YoY in Q4, outperforming initial expectations .
Operational excellence and balance sheet: most profitable December quarter (adjusted pre-tax $1.566B), industry-leading on-time/completion; adjusted net debt cut to $17.98B; leverage improved to 2.6x; investment grade at all three agencies .

Quote: “We expect March quarter adjusted revenue to be 7 to 9 percent higher than 2024… demand trends accelerated through the quarter.” – Glen Hauenstein, President .

What Went Wrong

Non-fuel unit cost inflation: CASM-Ex 13.72¢ (+3.3% YoY) in Q4; operating expenses rose 7% YoY to $13.84B GAAP (adjusted $12.70B) despite fuel tailwinds .
Investment MTM drag on GAAP: Q4 GAAP pre-tax margin 7.7% vs adjusted 10.8% due to $247M MTM losses and other non-op items (e.g., realized gains/hedge MTM); GAAP EPS $1.29 vs adjusted $1.85 .
November election impact on TRASM: adjusted TRASM +0.4% YoY but cited ~1 point negative impact from election-related demand softness; unit revenue domestic softness still moderating .

Financial Results

Quarterly Comparisons (Adjusted basis)

Metric	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Operating Revenue (Adjusted, $B)	$15.41	$14.59	$14.44
Diluted EPS (Adjusted, $)	$2.36	$1.50	$1.85
Operating Margin (Adjusted, %)	14.7%	9.4%	12.0%
TRASM (Adjusted, cents)	20.64	19.16	20.04
CASM-Ex (cents)	13.14	12.59	13.72

Note: Q4 adjusted revenue growth +5.7% YoY; adjusted TRASM +0.4% YoY .

GAAP vs Guidance/Actual – Q4 2024

Metric	Company Guidance (Oct 10)	Actual Q4 2024 (Dec 31)	Result
Total Revenue YoY (Adjusted)	+2% to +4%	+5.7%	Bold beat
Operating Margin (Adjusted)	11% to 13%	12.0%	In-range
Diluted EPS (Adjusted)	$1.60–$1.85	$1.85	Top end

Segment Breakdown – Q4 2024

Entity	Revenue ($M)	YoY Change	Unit Revenue YoY	Capacity YoY
Domestic	$9,193	+5%	(1)%	+6%
Atlantic	$1,974	+4%	+6%	(2)%
Latin America	$987	+4%	(1)%	+5%
Pacific	$661	+19%	(4)%	+24%
Passenger Revenue Total	$12,815	+5%	—	+5%
Cargo Revenue	$249	+32%	—	—
Other Revenue	$2,495	+34%	—	—
Third Party Refinery Sales	$(1,122)	—	—	—
Total Revenue (GAAP)	$15,559	+9%	+4%	—

KPIs and Cash Generation

KPI	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
RPMs (millions)	65,241	66,310	60,387
ASMs (millions)	74,656	76,162	72,035
Load Factor (%)	87%	87%	84%
Passenger Yield (cents)	21.22	19.77	21.22
Fuel Price (Adjusted, $/gal)	2.64	2.53	2.34
Operating Cash Flow (Adjusted, $M)	2,458	1,276	1,782
Free Cash Flow ($M)	1,274	95	678

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Total Revenue YoY (Adjusted)	Q4 2024	+2% to +4% (Oct 10)	Actual +5.7%	Beat vs guide
Operating Margin (Adjusted)	Q4 2024	11%–13% (Oct 10)	Actual 12.0%	In-range
EPS (Adjusted)	Q4 2024	$1.60–$1.85 (Oct 10)	Actual $1.85	Top end
Total Revenue YoY	Q1 2025	+7% to +9%	+7% to +9%	Introduced
Operating Margin	Q1 2025	6%–8%	6%–8%	Introduced
EPS	Q1 2025	$0.70–$1.00	$0.70–$1.00	Introduced
EPS	FY 2025	“> $7.35”	“> $7.35”	Introduced
Free Cash Flow ($B)	FY 2025	“> $4”	“> $4”	Introduced
Gross Leverage	FY 2025	≤2x	≤2x	Introduced
3–5 Yr Targets	Multi-year	EPS YoY ~10%; FCF $3–$5B; leverage 1x (Nov Investor Day)	Reiterated	Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Q2 2024 Mentions	Q3 2024 Mentions	Q4 2024 Mentions	Trend
Premium/loyalty mix	Premium/loyalty 56% of adj revenue; Amex $1.9B (+9%)	Premium outperformed main cabin by 9 pts; Amex $1.8B (+6%)	57% of adj revenue for 2024; premium +6 pts vs main; Amex nearly $2B (+14%)	Strengthening
Transatlantic	Record schedule; strong demand	Domestic & Transatlantic unit revenue positive in Sept	Transatlantic unit revenue +6% YoY; off-peak robust	Very strong
Corporate demand	Double-digit volumes growth for 6 months	+7% YoY; positive 2025 survey (85%)	+10% YoY in Q4; positive 2025 survey (90%)	Improving
Cost & CASM-Ex	CASM-Ex +0.6% YoY	CASM-Ex +5.7% YoY (CrowdStrike impact)	CASM-Ex +3.3% YoY; FY +2.8% YoY	Easing from Q3 spike
Fuel dynamics	Adj fuel expense +12% YoY; price $2.64/gal	Adj fuel expense -6% YoY; price $2.53/gal	Adj fuel expense -18% YoY; price $2.34/gal	Tailwind
Technology/AI & partnerships	Delta Sync rollout	Delta Sync expansion; premium lounges	CES keynote; Delta Concierge (gen-AI), Uber and YouTube partnerships	Expanding
Tariffs/macro	—	—	Contingency to mitigate Airbus tariffs; domestic macro resilient	Monitored

Management Commentary

Strategy and FY25 outlook: “We are on track to deliver the best financial year in our history with revenue growth and margin expansion… EPS greater than $7.35 and free cash flow of more than $4 billion.” – Ed Bastian, CEO .
Demand and revenue mix: “We expect March quarter adjusted revenue to be 7 to 9 percent higher… premium revenue growth outperformed main cabin by 6 points… Amex remuneration nearly $2 billion, up 14% YoY.” – Glen Hauenstein, President .
Cost discipline and leverage: “Non-fuel unit cost growth to continue in the low-single digits for full year 2025… leverage improved to 2.6x and Delta returned to investment grade at all three agencies.” – Dan Janki, CFO .

Q&A Highlights

Corporate demand and pricing: Corporate sales +10% YoY with both volume and yield contributing; booking curves re-normalizing toward pre-COVID; premium driven by boomers with potential main cabin upside as industry capacity rationalizes .
Fuel recapture: Management expects faster recapture in current backdrop as lower-tier carriers under margin pressure, aiding yield recovery despite stronger current yields .
Capacity shape: 2025 capacity +3–4%, with Q1 ~4.5–5%; transatlantic slightly above system average growth; domestic slightly below; focus on core hubs and premium seat growth (>85% of incremental seats) .
Non-op and interest/pension outlook: Non-op expected ~flattish ~$800M for 2025; deleveraging benefit ~<$100M; pension performance supportive but uncertain until finalized .
Tariffs contingency: Ability to mitigate potential Airbus tariffs (e.g., U.S. assembly deliveries) if imposed; monitoring policy developments .

Estimates Context

Wall Street consensus (S&P Global/Capital IQ) for Q4 2024 EPS and revenue was unavailable at time of request due to SPGI rate limits. As a proxy, comparisons versus company guidance are shown (see Financial Results and Guidance Changes) .
Where estimate comparisons are required, we recommend revisiting once S&P Global access is restored to quantify beat/miss versus consensus.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Premium and loyalty engines are the core differentiators: with 57% of adjusted revenue from premium/loyalty streams and accelerating Amex remuneration, DAL’s revenue mix supports structurally higher margins through cycles .
Transatlantic remains a profit center: off-peak strength and favorable capacity setup point to record seasonal performance; watch for continued RASM leadership into summer 2025 .
Efficiency upside in 2025: CASM-Ex growth guided low single digits; utilization gains (mainline/regional), normalization in maintenance, and tech-driven operations should fund ongoing customer investments without margin sacrifice .
Cash generation and leverage runway: FY25 FCF “> $4B” and leverage ≤2x create optionality for accelerated debt paydown and selective growth; investment-grade ratings across all agencies reduce financing risk and cost of capital .
Near-term trading setup: Q1 guide implies margin expansion and near-doubling EPS YoY; any confirmation of main cabin unit revenue inflection or corporate strength could catalyze estimate revisions upward once consensus data is available .
Watch risks: non-op volatility from equity investments (MTM), macro events (elections, natural disasters), and tariff policy; DAL cites contingency plans and diversified revenue base as mitigants .
Execution bar: maintaining industry-leading operations (on-time, completion) and continuing premium product innovation (Delta Sync, lounges, partnerships) remain central to sustaining valuation premium .

Citations: All figures, guidance and commentary referenced are sourced from the company’s December quarter press release and 8-K, and the Q4 2024 earnings call transcript – – –. Additional trend context from Q3 and Q2 press releases and transcripts – –.

DELTA AIR LINES, INC. (DAL)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary