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    DEERE & (DE)

    DE Q3 2025: Full-Year Tariff Impact Up to $600M, Margin Pressure Ahead

    Reported on Aug 14, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$513.54Last close (Aug 13, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$485.00Open (Aug 14, 2025)
    Price Change
    $-28.54(-5.56%)
    • Efficient Inventory Management and Underproduction: Deere’s deliberate underproduction across segments and significant reductions in inventory (e.g., 30% drop in small tractor inventories and 25%-50% reductions in various regions) position the company to ramp production quickly in line with retail demand when market conditions improve [Index 7][Index 10].
    • Favorable Early Order Programs (EOPs): The structured and flexible EOPs—with embedded list price increases of around 24%—are attracting customer interest in model-year '26 products, suggesting a potential margin expansion and strong future revenue recovery despite current uncertainties [Index 7].
    • Technological Innovation and Precision Ag Adoption: Robust adoption of precision ag solutions, along with initiatives like JDLink Boost and Precision Essentials—evidenced by thousands of global orders and significant increases in engaged acres—demonstrate that Deere’s technology investments are enhancing productivity and providing a competitive advantage for long‑term growth [Index 8].
    • Tariff pressures risk margin compression: Escalating tariff costs—with Q3 expenses of about $200 million and a full-year forecast now adjusted to nearly $600 million—pose a significant threat to profitability by increasing operating costs and offsetting pricing power.
    • Negative price realization and incentive dilution: Aggressive pricing actions, such as the use of incremental pool funds to address high used equipment inventories, have led to negative price realization in key segments (e.g., large ag and construction), which could erode margins further if such trends continue.
    • Demand uncertainty and cautious order intake: The cautious customer behavior and underproduction relative to retail demand—evidenced by contested early order program results and lower projections for model year '26 sprayers (down roughly 20% year over year)—raise concerns about sustaining future demand levels and achieving production scalability.
    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Net Income (overall)

    FY 2025

    $4.75B to $5.50B

    $4.75B to $5.25B

    lowered

    Effective Tax Rate

    FY 2025

    20% to 22%

    19% to 21%

    lowered

    Operating Cash Flow

    FY 2025

    $4.5B to $5.5B

    $4.5B to $5.5B

    no change

    Construction and Forestry – Net Sales

    FY 2025

    Decline by 10% to 15%

    Decline by 10% to 15%

    no change

    Construction and Forestry – Operating Margin

    FY 2025

    8.5% to 11.5%

    8.5% to 10%

    lowered

    Financial Services – Net Income

    FY 2025

    $750 million

    $770 million

    raised

    Tariff Costs / Impact

    FY 2025

    Just over $500 million

    $600 million

    raised

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Efficient Inventory Management and Production Planning

    In Q1 and Q2, Deere consistently discussed reducing excess inventories, aligning production schedules to demand, and proactively underproducing certain segments through detailed inventory reductions and production adjustments.

    In Q3, Deere emphasized aggressive inventory reductions across segments, efficient factory operations, and strategic production planning to set the stage to quickly respond to future market demand.

    Recurring focus with a heightened emphasis on aggressive inventory reduction and precise production planning to navigate current market challenges.

    Early Order Programs and Pricing Flexibility

    Q1 and Q2 discussions highlighted phased early order programs with slower bookings in some product lines and the integration of modest price increases or flexibility to adjust for tariffs, with incentives to stabilize the used market.

    Q3 commentary described adjusted EOP structures—shorter program windows and more flexibility in price adjustments, including price changes to account for potential tariff shifts, with clearer visibility into order books.

    Recurring topic with evolved program structure and more dynamic pricing flexibility to match market and tariff uncertainties.

    Technological Innovation and Precision Agriculture

    Q1 and Q2 calls focused on the rollout of Precision Ag Essentials, JDLink connectivity solutions, and the expansion of SaaS platforms with significant orders and increased digital engagement; initiatives included precision technology adoption and connectivity improvements.

    Q3 emphasized continued adoption of JDLink Boost, broadening global reach of precision offerings (e.g., satellite connectivity in regions lacking cell coverage) and leveraging AI for data utilization, reinforcing the strategic innovation narrative.

    Recurring and strengthening emphasis on innovation and precision ag with accelerated global adoption and integration of advanced connectivity and AI-driven insights.

    Tariff Pressures and Cost Management

    In Q1 and Q2, Deere addressed tariff exposures with moderate impacts and outlined initiatives for cost reduction through tighter sourcing, dual sourcing, and efficient production – noting impacts on margins and forecasting challenges.

    Q3 highlighted increased tariff costs (with a full-year forecast rising to nearly $600 million) and further cost management initiatives including material cost reductions and adjusted production efficiencies, emphasizing more acute tariff pressures.

    Recurring topic with increased intensity in tariff costs forcing a stronger focus on cost management and mitigation actions.

    Margin Pressures and Pricing Uncertainty

    Across Q1 and Q2, Deere discussed margin pressures driven by production underperformance in certain segments, negative price realizations (especially in construction & forestry), and cautious pricing measures to maintain a narrow positive price realization guide.

    Q3 continued to report margin compression due to increased tariffs and production cost challenges, noting negative price realizations in some segments while embedding tariff-driven pricing adjustments in early order programs to protect overall margins.

    Recurring concerns about margin and pricing volatility, with pressures intensifying due to external cost factors while maintaining a cautious pricing approach.

    Demand Uncertainty and Operational Challenges

    In Q1 and Q2, Deere addressed widespread demand uncertainty across agricultural and construction sectors with cautious customer behavior, production adjustments (e.g., underproduction to trim inventories) and noted macroeconomic headwinds along with operational challenges in managing production and cost control.

    Q3 depicted similar uncertainty with more explicit identifiers such as challenging global trade, heightened customer caution, and detailed operational tweaks like aggressive inventory management and production adjustments to cope with varied regional demand trends.

    Recurring theme of demand volatility with continued operational adjustments; the emphasis on disciplined execution has intensified in the current period.

    Government Support Impacts on Equipment Demand

    Q1 and Q2 mentioned that substantial government payments and support measures helped stabilize farmer balance sheets, though historical patterns suggested these aids served more to maintain liquidity than to drive immediate equipment orders.

    In Q3, government support was cited as a mitigating factor—such as stable farm balance sheets and favorable tax policies—but its impact was seen as supportive rather than transformational for immediate equipment demand.

    Recurring supportive theme; government aid continues to cushion demand uncertainty although it has not translated into robust immediate equipment orders.

    Future Recovery Uncertainty and Potential Need for Restructuring

    Q1 discussion explicitly acknowledged future recovery uncertainty; management, led by Josh Jepsen, stressed that while 2026 remains unpredictable, the current focus is on managing controllable factors without resorting to restructuring. Similar themes were implied in Q2 without explicit restructuring mention.

    In Q3, while future recovery uncertainty was acknowledged as part of the challenging market dynamics, there was no direct discussion on restructuring—emphasis remained on targeted cost management and inventory adjustments to be well‐positioned for recovery.

    Recurring acknowledgment of uncertainty about recovery with a consistent message across periods that the company is addressing challenges through disciplined management rather than restructuring.

    1. Tariff Impact
      Q: Updated tariff expectations breakdown?
      A: Management explained that their full‑year tariff impact increased from $500M to $600M, driven by higher rates on Europe, steel/aluminum, and India, while they are mitigating exposure through strategic sourcing and certification measures.

    2. Margin Outlook
      Q: What are margin puts and takes for next year?
      A: They expect margins to benefit from a rebound in production levels in 2026, leveraging underproduction in 2025 and improved list prices, alongside continued production cost reductions and tariff stabilization.

    3. Pricing Competition
      Q: Can CMS price realization improve next year?
      A: Management highlighted that despite competitive pricing pressures and current incentives affecting margins, they anticipate Q4 pricing moderation with gradual improvement in price realization moving into 2026.

    4. Production Alignment
      Q: Will production rise in line with retail demand?
      A: They noted production was purposefully kept around 10% under 2025 levels to manage inventory, with plans to closely align production with retail demand in 2026.

    5. Cash Flow Guidance
      Q: Why is the cash flow guidance range wide?
      A: The broad guidance mainly reflects uncertainties in market conditions and channel inventory dynamics, yet management remains confident in their ability to generate consistent cash flow.

    6. Order Programs Outlook
      Q: How are early order programs performing?
      A: Early order programs, particularly for planters and combines, are showing cautious initial uptake; sprayer programs closed with an expected 20% decline year-over-year, with anticipation of a ramp‑up later.

    7. Q4 Pricing Inflection
      Q: What are the implications of Q4 pricing actions?
      A: Adjustments include modest list price increases for model year 2026, which should help lift margins as tariff costs are further passed through, supporting an overall recovery in pricing.

    8. Used Equipment Support
      Q: How are pool funds impacting used equipment?
      A: Incremental pool funds are being deployed to enable dealers to offer attractive financing rates, helping stabilize the spread between new and used equipment prices and improving secondary market health.

    9. Tax & Depreciation
      Q: How will bonus depreciation affect cash flow?
      A: Management indicated that bonus depreciation and related tax measures are expected to have a positive impact by spurring year‑end customer buying decisions, although details remain under evaluation.

    10. Seasonality Concerns
      Q: Are seasonal patterns affecting large ag orders?
      A: They expect a rebound in large ag orders typical of seasonal peaks—about a 25% to 30% rise from Q1 to Q2—adjusted for North American challenges and supported by international green shoots.

    11. Dealer Sentiment
      Q: How are dealers reacting amid macro uncertainty?
      A: Dealers are cautious, balancing strong crop yields with concerns over tariffs and trade policy; while delaying some new capital decisions, overall demand fundamentals remain positive.

    12. Technology Investment
      Q: Will AI enhance technology recommendations?
      A: Management is actively integrating AI and machine learning into current products, aiming to leverage large data sets for improved recommendations and decision-making for farmers.

    Research analysts covering DEERE &.