Sign in
DO

DECKERS OUTDOOR CORP (DECK)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Record quarter: revenue $1.83B (+17.1% YoY), gross margin 60.3% (+160 bps YoY), diluted EPS $3.00 (+19% YoY) driven by strong UGG and HOKA demand and high full-price sell-through .
  • Guidance raised: FY25 net sales to ~15% ($4.9B), gross margin to at/above 57%, operating margin to ~22%, EPS to $5.75–$5.80; SG&A maintained at ~35%, tax ~23.5% .
  • Mix and execution were the positive surprise: UGG’s higher-margin products and reduced wholesale closeouts plus disciplined marketplace management lifted margins; management cautioned these high full-price levels are “abnormal” and freight/FX will be Q4 headwinds .
  • Near-term setup: UGG demand was pulled into Q3 due to better inventory positioning, implying a softer Q4 for UGG; HOKA’s Q4 to be largest ever on Bondi 9 and model transitions, but with more normalization in promotions/closeouts and FX/freight pressure .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • UGG momentum: $1.244B brand revenue (+16.1% YoY) with exceptional full-price sell-through, strong international growth, and successful collaborations (e.g., Gallery Dept., Palace) elevating brand heat .
  • HOKA growth: $530.9M (+23.7% YoY) with DTC +27% and wholesale +21%; Bondi 9 launch underway with strong early response; pipeline includes Clifton 10, Cielo X1 2.0, and trail innovations .
  • Margin execution: Gross margin 60.3% benefited from favorable product mix (UGG), lower closeouts, and full-price selling, partially offset by freight and anticipated HOKA discounting tied to model upgrades .

What Went Wrong

  • Q4 headwinds: Management flagged freight (~150 bps), FX (~50 bps), and normalized promotions/closeouts (up to ~100 bps) as near-term gross margin headwinds .
  • Channel/inventory dynamics: UGG demand capture earlier in Q3 (vs Q4 last year) limits inventory left to sell in Q4 and creates adverse quarterly comp dynamics despite healthy brand heat .
  • Teva/Other brands softness: Teva down 6% and Other down 16.6% YoY in Q3; Koolaburra to be phased out over CY2025, indicating portfolio rationalization and focus on top opportunities .

Financial Results

Consolidated P&L trends

MetricQ1 FY25Q2 FY25Q3 FY25
Revenue ($USD Billions)$0.825 $1.311 $1.827
Gross Margin (%)56.9% 55.9% 60.3%
Operating Income ($USD Millions)$132.8 $305.1 $567.3
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.75 (derived from 6M EPS $2.34 less Q2 $1.59) $1.59 $3.00

Notes: Q1 EPS shown split-adjusted via documents for six months and Q2; Q3 EPS and margins adjusted for 6-for-1 split .

Segment revenue

Brand Net Sales ($USD Billions unless noted)Q1 FY25Q2 FY25Q3 FY25
UGG$0.223 $0.690 $1.244
HOKA$0.545 $0.571 $0.531
Teva$0.046 $0.022 $0.024
Other (primarily Koolaburra)$0.004 $0.026 $0.028

Channel/geography KPIs

KPIQ1 FY25Q2 FY25Q3 FY25
DTC Net Sales ($USD Billions)$0.311 $0.398 $1.011
DTC Comparable Net Sales (%)21.9% 17.0% 18.3%
Wholesale Net Sales ($USD Billions)$0.515 $0.914 $0.816
Domestic Net Sales ($USD Billions)$0.516 $0.854 $1.169
International Net Sales ($USD Billions)$0.310 $0.457 $0.658

Estimates vs actuals: Wall Street consensus via S&P Global was unavailable at the time of this analysis due to API access limits; therefore, “vs estimates” comparisons are not provided.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriod (Update)Previous GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Net Sales Growth (%) / LevelQ2 FY25 update~10% to $4.7B (Q1 guide) ~12% to $4.8B Raised
Gross MarginQ2 FY25 update~54% (Q1 guide) 55–55.5% Raised
SG&A as % of Net SalesQ2 FY25 update34–34.5% ~35% Raised
Operating MarginQ2 FY25 update19.5–20% 20–20.5% Raised
Effective Tax RateQ2 FY25 update22–23% 23–23.5% Raised
Diluted EPSQ2 FY25 update$29.75–$30.65 (pre-split) $5.15–$5.25 (post-split) Raised (post-split)
Net Sales Growth (%) / LevelQ3 FY25 update~12% to $4.8B (Q2 guide) ~15% to $4.9B Raised
Gross MarginQ3 FY25 update55–55.5% At or slightly better than 57% Raised
SG&A as % of Net SalesQ3 FY25 update~35% ~35% Maintained
Operating MarginQ3 FY25 update20–20.5% ~22% Raised
Effective Tax RateQ3 FY25 update23–23.5% ~23.5% Maintained/Refined
Diluted EPSQ3 FY25 update$5.15–$5.25 $5.75–$5.80 Raised

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 FY25)Previous Mentions (Q2 FY25)Current Period (Q3 FY25)Trend
Brand momentum (UGG/HOKA)Robust full-price demand across UGG/HOKA; YoY revenue +22% UGG +13%, HOKA +34.7%; strong consumer demand Record quarter; UGG +16%, HOKA +24% Strengthening
International growth focusInternational +20.8% International +33.0% International +28.5%; expected to outpace U.S. into FY26 Sustained outperformance
Marketplace disciplineFull-price, pull model emphasized Continued disciplined marketplace management “Abnormal” full-price levels; caution on Q4 normalization Discipline maintained; caution near term
Product pipeline (HOKA)Not detailedDoor expansion in FY25; wholesale dynamics Bondi 9 launch; Clifton 10, Cielo X1 2.0; trail innovations Accelerating innovation
Freight/FXNot highlightedNot highlightedQ4 headwinds: freight ~150 bps, FX ~50 bps Emerging macro headwinds
Portfolio actionsSanuk divest announced Sanuk sale completed Aug 15 Koolaburra wind-down in CY2025 Ongoing rationalization

Management Commentary

  • “Deckers posted exceptional results in the third quarter, delivering record quarterly revenue, gross margin, and earnings.” — Stefano Caroti, CEO .
  • “Gross margin for the third quarter was 60.3%... benefited from favorable product mix... reduced closeouts... higher levels of full price selling... I would caution that the extremely high levels of full price selling... are abnormal and not something we would normally expect to repeat.” — Steve Fasching, CFO .
  • “We are raising our full year revenue expectations to just above $4.9 billion... gross margin at or slightly better than 57%... operating margin ~22%... EPS $5.75 to $5.80.” — Steve Fasching .

Q&A Highlights

  • Long-term HOKA growth and innovation cadence: Management aims for sustainable share gains via selective distribution and innovation (Bondi 9, Clifton 10, Arahi 8) rather than “chasing numbers” .
  • International vs domestic: International expected to outpace the U.S. into FY26; Q3 saw strong international contribution, with U.S. still performing to expectations .
  • Margin sustainability: Sector-leading margins face pressures from inflation, FX, and freight; expect Q4 headwinds despite brand strength .
  • Q4 growth profile: UGG demand pulled forward into Q3 due to better inventory, limiting Q4 supply; HOKA Q4 volume largest ever, with wholesale sell-in timing and model changeovers impacting gross margin .
  • Distribution strategy: Continued selective door additions, especially internationally; emphasis on controlled, brand-protective expansion .

Estimates Context

  • Consensus estimates via S&P Global were unavailable at the time of this analysis due to API access limits; as a result, explicit “vs estimates” comparisons (Revenue, EPS, margins) are not shown. The absence of this data may necessitate later revisions to buy-/sell-side models once consensus can be retrieved.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Q3 was a high-quality beat operationally: record revenue, gross margin, and EPS, powered by UGG’s high-margin mix and HOKA’s disciplined growth; guidance raised across revenue, margins, and EPS .
  • Expect near-term normalization: freight and FX headwinds plus more typical promotions/closeouts could compress Q4 margins; UGG quarterly comp dynamics are distorted by demand pull-forward .
  • HOKA pipeline is a catalyst: Bondi 9 launch is broad and global; Clifton 10 and Cielo X1 2.0 extend innovation runway; Q4 volume set to be largest ever for HOKA .
  • International remains the growth lever: outsized growth vs domestic and a stated objective to increase the international mix over time .
  • Portfolio focus improves capital allocation: continued repurchases ($44.7M in Q3; $640.7M authorization remaining) and wind-down of Koolaburra concentrate resources on UGG and HOKA .
  • Margin profile stays elite but not static: management warns Q3’s full-price/sell-through levels are “abnormal”; investors should model more normalized closeouts and macro headwinds .
  • FY25 trajectory: on track for double-digit revenue growth for the fifth consecutive year, with top-tier operating profitability; updates to FY26 outlook expected at May call .