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DECKERS OUTDOOR CORP (DECK)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Record quarter: revenue $1.83B (+17.1% YoY), gross margin 60.3% (+160 bps YoY), diluted EPS $3.00 (+19% YoY) driven by strong UGG and HOKA demand and high full-price sell-through .
- Guidance raised: FY25 net sales to ~15% ($4.9B), gross margin to at/above 57%, operating margin to ~22%, EPS to $5.75–$5.80; SG&A maintained at ~35%, tax ~23.5% .
- Mix and execution were the positive surprise: UGG’s higher-margin products and reduced wholesale closeouts plus disciplined marketplace management lifted margins; management cautioned these high full-price levels are “abnormal” and freight/FX will be Q4 headwinds .
- Near-term setup: UGG demand was pulled into Q3 due to better inventory positioning, implying a softer Q4 for UGG; HOKA’s Q4 to be largest ever on Bondi 9 and model transitions, but with more normalization in promotions/closeouts and FX/freight pressure .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- UGG momentum: $1.244B brand revenue (+16.1% YoY) with exceptional full-price sell-through, strong international growth, and successful collaborations (e.g., Gallery Dept., Palace) elevating brand heat .
- HOKA growth: $530.9M (+23.7% YoY) with DTC +27% and wholesale +21%; Bondi 9 launch underway with strong early response; pipeline includes Clifton 10, Cielo X1 2.0, and trail innovations .
- Margin execution: Gross margin 60.3% benefited from favorable product mix (UGG), lower closeouts, and full-price selling, partially offset by freight and anticipated HOKA discounting tied to model upgrades .
What Went Wrong
- Q4 headwinds: Management flagged freight (~150 bps), FX (~50 bps), and normalized promotions/closeouts (up to ~100 bps) as near-term gross margin headwinds .
- Channel/inventory dynamics: UGG demand capture earlier in Q3 (vs Q4 last year) limits inventory left to sell in Q4 and creates adverse quarterly comp dynamics despite healthy brand heat .
- Teva/Other brands softness: Teva down 6% and Other down 16.6% YoY in Q3; Koolaburra to be phased out over CY2025, indicating portfolio rationalization and focus on top opportunities .
Financial Results
Consolidated P&L trends
Notes: Q1 EPS shown split-adjusted via documents for six months and Q2; Q3 EPS and margins adjusted for 6-for-1 split .
Segment revenue
Channel/geography KPIs
Estimates vs actuals: Wall Street consensus via S&P Global was unavailable at the time of this analysis due to API access limits; therefore, “vs estimates” comparisons are not provided.
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Deckers posted exceptional results in the third quarter, delivering record quarterly revenue, gross margin, and earnings.” — Stefano Caroti, CEO .
- “Gross margin for the third quarter was 60.3%... benefited from favorable product mix... reduced closeouts... higher levels of full price selling... I would caution that the extremely high levels of full price selling... are abnormal and not something we would normally expect to repeat.” — Steve Fasching, CFO .
- “We are raising our full year revenue expectations to just above $4.9 billion... gross margin at or slightly better than 57%... operating margin ~22%... EPS $5.75 to $5.80.” — Steve Fasching .
Q&A Highlights
- Long-term HOKA growth and innovation cadence: Management aims for sustainable share gains via selective distribution and innovation (Bondi 9, Clifton 10, Arahi 8) rather than “chasing numbers” .
- International vs domestic: International expected to outpace the U.S. into FY26; Q3 saw strong international contribution, with U.S. still performing to expectations .
- Margin sustainability: Sector-leading margins face pressures from inflation, FX, and freight; expect Q4 headwinds despite brand strength .
- Q4 growth profile: UGG demand pulled forward into Q3 due to better inventory, limiting Q4 supply; HOKA Q4 volume largest ever, with wholesale sell-in timing and model changeovers impacting gross margin .
- Distribution strategy: Continued selective door additions, especially internationally; emphasis on controlled, brand-protective expansion .
Estimates Context
- Consensus estimates via S&P Global were unavailable at the time of this analysis due to API access limits; as a result, explicit “vs estimates” comparisons (Revenue, EPS, margins) are not shown. The absence of this data may necessitate later revisions to buy-/sell-side models once consensus can be retrieved.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Q3 was a high-quality beat operationally: record revenue, gross margin, and EPS, powered by UGG’s high-margin mix and HOKA’s disciplined growth; guidance raised across revenue, margins, and EPS .
- Expect near-term normalization: freight and FX headwinds plus more typical promotions/closeouts could compress Q4 margins; UGG quarterly comp dynamics are distorted by demand pull-forward .
- HOKA pipeline is a catalyst: Bondi 9 launch is broad and global; Clifton 10 and Cielo X1 2.0 extend innovation runway; Q4 volume set to be largest ever for HOKA .
- International remains the growth lever: outsized growth vs domestic and a stated objective to increase the international mix over time .
- Portfolio focus improves capital allocation: continued repurchases ($44.7M in Q3; $640.7M authorization remaining) and wind-down of Koolaburra concentrate resources on UGG and HOKA .
- Margin profile stays elite but not static: management warns Q3’s full-price/sell-through levels are “abnormal”; investors should model more normalized closeouts and macro headwinds .
- FY25 trajectory: on track for double-digit revenue growth for the fifth consecutive year, with top-tier operating profitability; updates to FY26 outlook expected at May call .