DECK Q4 2025: Wholesale offsets US DTC drag; targets mid-teens growth
- Strong Wholesale Expansion and Global Resilience: Management highlighted robust wholesale performance and an exceptionally strong international order book, which helps offset near-term softness in U.S. DTC channels. This strategic expansion adds new physical retail doors and leverages high consumer demand globally.
- Successful Product Transitions and Innovative Pipeline: The smooth transition to new models such as Bondi 9 and Clifton 10, combined with a strong pipeline of additional product innovations for spring/summer 2026, reinforces consumer interest and supports future revenue growth.
- Effective Management of Cost Headwinds: Despite potential tariff impacts, management's proactive approach—using pricing power, cost sharing with vendors, and disciplined inventory management—demonstrates resilience and positions the company to mitigate rising costs while maintaining brand strength.
- US DTC Slowdown: Concerns remain over slower growth in the US direct-to-consumer channel for HOKA, with management noting some unique pressures in the US market that could continue to weigh on consumer demand and overall revenue performance.
- Tariff Impact: The company faces a gross tariff cost of $150 million for fiscal year 2026 that may only be partially mitigated by price adjustments, potentially eroding margins and impacting profitability if consumer demand dampens.
- Inventory Buildup Risk: Intentional increases in inventory to address tariffs and distribution changes could signal potential future challenges if consumer demand softens, creating risks of oversupply or forced discounting.
Metric | YoY Change | Reason |
---|---|---|
Total Revenue (Net Sales) | +6.5% (from $959.76M to $1,021.78M) | Total Revenue grew by 6.5% YoY, reflecting a continuation of the moderate growth trend seen in previous quarters. This increase is attributed to ongoing improvements in product mix, pricing initiatives, and channel performance that built on prior period momentum. |
Net Income | +18.7% (from $127.55M to $151.41M) | Net Income increased by 18.7% YoY, outpacing revenue growth. This stronger profitability is likely the result of improved gross margins and operating leverage as cost controls and higher-margin product strategies from previous periods continued to deliver benefits. |
Basic EPS | 80% decline (from $5.01 to $1.00) | Basic EPS fell approximately 80% YoY despite higher net income, indicating a substantial dilution effect. The large drop suggests that a significant increase in shares outstanding occurred—possibly from new equity issuance or convertible instrument activity—that contrasts with the earlier period where EPS benefited from share repurchases. |
Operating Income | +20.6% (from $144.26M to $173.93M) | Operating Income rose by 20.6% YoY, driven by a combination of revenue growth, cost efficiencies, and improved gross margins. These factors, such as a favorable product mix and disciplined expense management that were emerging in previous periods, strengthened the operating results in Q4 2025. |
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities | More negative (from -$28.67M to -$72.99M) | Net cash flow from operations deteriorated, turning more negative despite higher profitability. This decline likely reflects greater investments in working capital—such as higher inventory purchases and receivables—offsetting the improved non-cash earnings adjustments observed in the previous period. |
Cash & Cash Equivalents | +25.7% (from $1,502.05M to $1,889.19M) | Cash & Cash Equivalents increased by 25.7% YoY, which is partly the result of favorable financing activities and improved liquidity management. This benefit was enough to boost the overall cash position even as operating cash generation relaxed, building on the robust inflows seen in earlier quarters. |
Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue growth | FY 2025 | 12% growth | 15% growth – “just above $4.9B” implied | raised |
HOKA Brand Growth | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | 24% year-over-year | no prior guidance |
Gross Margin | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | at or slightly better than 57% | no prior guidance |
SG&A | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | Approximately 35% of revenue | no prior guidance |
Operating Margin | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | Approximately 22% | no prior guidance |
Effective Tax Rate | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | Approximately 23.5% | no prior guidance |
Diluted EPS | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | $5.75 to $5.80 | no prior guidance |
FX Impact | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | 50 basis point headwind on Q4 gross margin | no prior guidance |
Promotions & Closeouts | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | Up to 100 basis points impact | no prior guidance |
Freight Costs | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | 150 basis point headwind | no prior guidance |
Revenue | Q1 2026 | no prior guidance | $890 million to $910 million | no prior guidance |
HOKA Brand Growth | Q1 2026 | no prior guidance | At least low double digits | no prior guidance |
UGG Brand Growth | Q1 2026 | no prior guidance | At least mid-single digits | no prior guidance |
Gross Margin | Q1 2026 | no prior guidance | Down approximately 250 basis points versus last year | no prior guidance |
SG&A | Q1 2026 | no prior guidance | Expected to increase slightly faster than revenue | no prior guidance |
Diluted EPS | Q1 2026 | no prior guidance | $0.62 to $0.67 (with last year's guidance noted as $0.75 ) | no prior guidance |
Metric | Period | Guidance | Actual | Performance |
---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | FY 2025 | Just above $4.9 billion | $4.99B (Sum of Q1 2025: $825,347, Q2 2025: $1,311,320, Q3 2025: $1,827,165, Q4 2025: $1,021,780) | Beat |
Gross Margin | FY 2025 | At or slightly better than 57% | 57.9% (Derived from total Net Sales = $4.986B, total Cost of Sales = $2.100B; Q1 2025: 355,347, Q2 2025: 578,048, Q3 2025: 724,542, Q4 2025: 442,012) | Beat |
SG&A | FY 2025 | ~35% of revenue | 34.2% (Sum of Q1 2025: 337,193, Q2 2025: 428,186, Q3 2025: 535,349, Q4 2025: 405,843, divided by total FY25 revenue) | Beat |
Operating Margin | FY 2025 | ~22% | 23.6% (Sum of Operating Income Q1 2025: 132,807, Q2 2025: 305,086, Q3 2025: 567,274, Q4 2025: 173,925, over total FY25 revenue) | Beat |
Effective Tax Rate | FY 2025 | ~23.5% | 22.3% (Total Tax $277,208 ÷ Income Before Taxes $1,243,299; Q1 2025 Tax: 33,528, Q2 2025: 76,591, Q3 2025: 127,208, Q4 2025: 39,881) | Beat |
Diluted EPS | FY 2025 | $5.75 to $5.80 | ~$6.33 (Q1 2025: 4.52, Q2 2025: (2.18), Q3 2025: 2.99, Q4 2025: 1.00, summed for indicative full-year total) | Beat |
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
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Wholesale Expansion and Distribution Strategy | Mentioned consistently across Q1–Q3 as a controlled, selective expansion – balancing new door openings with marketplace discipline and maintaining a 50-50 DTC/wholesale mix. | In Q4 2025, the approach remains strategic and gradual with continued domestic and international expansion, emphasizing systematic growth and selective partner additions. | Consistent focus on executing controlled expansion. The sentiment remains disciplined with an enduring focus on balancing channels, showing no dramatic shift but reinforcing the long‐term strategy. |
US Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Channel Dynamics | Q1 and Q2 called out robust DTC growth driven by strong consumer demand and brand loyalty, while Q3 highlighted global growth but with less focus on U.S.-specific dynamics. | Q4 2025 noted near-term challenges in the U.S. DTC segment – a slight decline due in part to consumers shifting to in-store experiences and increased promotions, although the long-term target of a balanced channel mix is reiterated. | Shift in sentiment: Previously robust DTC performance now faces near-term headwinds in the U.S.; however, the long-term strategy and potential for recovery remain intact, reflecting a cautious short-term outlook with sustained optimism over time. |
International Market Growth and Global Resilience | Across Q1–Q3, there was a strong emphasis on expanding global presence with improving brand awareness (especially for HOKA) and resilient performance in key regions like China, Europe, and Asia-Pacific. | Q4 2025 reinforces a bullish view with accelerated international growth – HOKA’s international revenue gains and continued confidence in UGG’s global adaptability, underscoring robust global resilience amidst economic challenges. | Consistently bullish: Global expansion remains a cornerstone, with sentiment becoming even more positive in Q4 as international market share increases and resilience is highlighted despite macro uncertainties. |
Product Innovation and Pipeline Development | Q1–Q3 earnings calls consistently highlighted innovation with successful launches (e.g., Cielo X1, Skyward X, Bondi 9) and a robust future product pipeline, supporting sustained growth and differentiation. | Q4 2025 continues the innovation narrative with enhancements in existing franchises (e.g., upgrades to Bondi, Clifton) and new introductions (e.g., Skyflow), along with investments in consumer engagement like a flagship experience center. | Steady innovation momentum: The company has maintained its emphasis on innovation, adding new product developments and consumer engagement initiatives. The sentiment remains positive and forward-looking, backing future growth. |
Gross Margin and Cost Pressure Management | Q1 reported strong margin improvements driven by favorable mix and lower freight rates while Q2 and Q3 also noted benefits from product mix; however, earlier periods recognized that external cost pressures might emerge. | Q4 2025 shows a mixed picture: while there are incremental improvements in gross margin from full-price selling, upcoming headwinds from increased freight costs, tariff impacts, and promotional pressures have been emphasized. | Transition from bullish to cautious: Earlier periods celebrated solid margins, but recent commentary in Q4 flags rising external cost pressures, shifting sentiment to caution about future margin dilution amid external headwinds. |
Inventory Management Dynamics (Shift from Stock-outs to Buildup Risks) | Q1 discussed a healthy and balanced inventory position; Q2 and Q3 started signaling a shift – from struggling with stock-outs to an increased focus on managing higher inventory levels due to earlier wholesale shipments. | In Q4 2025, management is intentionally increasing inventory (to mitigate risks tied to tariffs and distribution center transitions) while maintaining a lean approach, indicating an evolving strategy to balance immediate demand with buildup risks. | Evolving focus: Sentiment has shifted from mitigating stock-outs to carefully managing potential inventory buildup. The strategy adapts to external risks, reflecting proactive adjustments while keeping a disciplined inventory policy. |
Emerging Tariff Impact on Profitability | Mostly absent in Q1 and Q3; Q2 mentioned uncertainty with tariffs not factored into guidance, reflecting low focus on this risk in earlier periods. | Q4 2025 brings a heightened focus on tariffs with an estimated impact of up to $150 million in added COGS for FY 2026; clear mitigation strategies via selective pricing and cost sharing are now being emphasized. | New and more concerning: The emerging tariff risk has become a focal point in Q4, shifting sentiment from uncertainty (or minimal attention) to a more cautious, risk-aware tone regarding future profitability. |
Reduced Emphasis on SG&A Expense and Freight Cost Headwinds | Q1 and Q2 focused on strategic SG&A investments to drive growth while acknowledging some freight benefits; Q3 reported rising SG&A spend as a percentage of revenue due to increased marketing and headcount. | In Q4 2025, despite a lower SG&A expense ratio compared to prior periods (reflecting improved efficiency), freight cost headwinds are underscored as a significant risk, with expectations of higher ocean freight rates impacting future margins. | Mixed outlook: While efforts to curb SG&A as a percentage of revenue are evident, rising freight costs have increasingly become a concern. The sentiment shows disciplined cost management alongside caution about growing external freight pressures. |
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HOKA DTC Slowdown
Q: What slowed US DTC performance?
A: Management explained that US DTC growth was pressured by promotional activities and the transition to new models, even though volumes stayed healthy and international DTC performed well, with wholesale expansion driving overall strength. -
HOKA Growth Outlook
Q: Can mid-teens growth be sustained?
A: Despite near-term US headwinds, management remains optimistic that in a normalized environment, mid-teen growth is achievable through robust new model launches and strong international expansion. -
Tariff Impact
Q: How are tariffs affecting costs?
A: The $150 million tariff impact is a gross figure; management expects to recapture roughly half through pricing power and vendor cost sharing, although some margin pressure will persist. -
Product Transition
Q: Are model upgrades working well?
A: The transition to Bondi 9 and Clifton 10 has been executed effectively, with strong wholesale sell-through offsetting lower ASPs from promotions, demonstrating healthy consumer response. -
Wholesale Strategy
Q: How is wholesale driving growth?
A: Expansion into wholesale has been strategic, focusing on door productivity and increased distribution both in the US and internationally, thereby boosting overall sales performance. -
UGG Outlook
Q: What is UGG’s performance outlook?
A: UGG delivered strong revenue growth across channels and regions, with the men's segment particularly robust and a scarcity inventory model preserving high margins. -
Inventory Management
Q: Will Q1 inventory levels rise?
A: Inventory is expected to climb in Q1 due to pulling forward stock in anticipation of tariffs and warehouse transitions in Europe, though it will remain lean overall. -
Future Product Pipeline
Q: Are new product innovations planned?
A: Management highlighted a robust pipeline for spring/summer '26, including innovative lower-profile and technical models, signaling continued brand momentum. -
DTC vs. Wholesale Strategy
Q: What is the long-term channel balance?
A: The long-term strategy aims for a 50-50 split between DTC and wholesale, with a focus on e-commerce for DTC and careful physical expansion, ensuring balanced growth. -
Legacy Inventory
Q: Is legacy inventory causing issues?
A: Legacy products like Bondi 8 have mostly been liquidated, preventing market clutter and supporting a smooth new model rollout.
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