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    DR Horton Inc (DHI)

    Q2 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Jan 10, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$145.74Last close (Apr 17, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$153.00Open (Apr 18, 2024)
    Price Change
    $7.26(+4.98%)
    • Lot cost inflation is expected to remain moderate, with low single-digit percentage increases in the current pipeline, indicating a controlled cost environment.
    • Increased investor interest in the company's single-family rental and multifamily assets, with more interested parties in the assets they have for sale today, suggesting potential growth in the rental business.
    • The company is ready to monetize completed rental projects and expects no significant shifts in rental revenues, selling whole communities at a time, which may lead to higher revenues when closings occur.
    • Increased existing home inventory and higher insurance costs in Florida, an important market for DHI, could pose challenges.
    • Lot cost inflation is expected to continue with moderate increases, impacting margins.
    • Rental revenues are expected to remain flat despite more units completed, and margins are not meeting company objectives due to cap rates and interest rates.
    1. Cash Flow Guidance
      Q: What is the cash flow outlook considering rental investments?
      A: Bill Wheat explained that while guiding to around $3 billion of homebuilding cash flow this year, consolidated cash flow will be offset by investments in the rental business, expecting around $800 million to $1 billion for the full year on a consolidated basis. The gap should narrow in future years as rental platform growth moderates, with the asset base at $3.1 billion today expected to grow slightly.

    2. Gross Margin Outlook
      Q: Will higher rates and incentives impact future margins?
      A: Jessica Hansen stated that with over 50% of homes sold and closed intra-quarter, real-time market conditions are reflected quickly in gross margins. While costs outside of incentives have flattened, incentives remain a wildcard dependent on market conditions. The impact of higher mortgage rates on buydowns is already reflected in Q2 and Q3 results.

    3. Demand Trends
      Q: How are recent demand trends amid rate volatility?
      A: Bill Wheat noted that despite rate volatility causing intermittent buyer adjustments in February and March, sales pace has stabilized over the past six weeks, aligning with plans and enabling an increase in annual guidance. Future demand will depend on rate movements, with the company adjusting accordingly.

    4. Land and Lot Cost Inflation
      Q: What is the outlook for land and lot cost inflation?
      A: Bill Wheat expects moderate increases in land costs, with low single-digit percentage increases anticipated. While land prices have settled recently, the long-term trend remains upward due to a shortage of lot availability in the industry.

    5. Community Count Growth
      Q: What is the outlook for community count growth?
      A: Jessica Hansen mentioned that community count has been up double-digit percentages year-over-year for several quarters, with growth expected to moderate in the coming quarters. The company continues to focus on driving growth through community count rather than increased absorption per community.

    6. Interest Rate Buydowns
      Q: Are costlier buydowns affecting margins?
      A: Paul Romanowski explained that mortgage rate buydowns are adjusted in line with market rates, aiming to offer rates about 1 to 1.5 points below market. The impact of higher rates on buydown costs is already reflected, and incentives may increase if rates rise significantly.

    7. Rental Business Margins
      Q: What are the expectations for rental business margins?
      A: Michael Murray indicated that rental margins will largely depend on interest rates and capital markets, expecting them to remain consistent with current levels but acknowledging potential volatility due to the size and timing of transactions.

    8. Buyer Credit Quality
      Q: Any signs of stress in buyer credit metrics?
      A: Paul Romanowski reported no significant signs of stress, with the average FICO score last quarter at 725. Fluctuations in rates have not meaningfully impacted backlog or buyers' ability to qualify.

    9. Resale Market Competition
      Q: Is increased resale inventory affecting sales?
      A: Michael Murray stated that resale inventory remains limited, especially at affordable price points, and has not significantly impacted sales pace. The company's interest rate incentives offer an affordability advantage over existing homes.

    10. Cycle Time Improvements
      Q: Can cycle times be reduced further?
      A: Paul Romanowski acknowledged that while cycle times are back to historical norms, the company continues to focus on efficiency and sees potential for further improvement, though significant reductions are not expected in the near term.

    11. SG&A Expenses
      Q: What are the expectations for SG&A expenses?
      A: Bill Wheat explained that SG&A is expected to remain low, around 7% for the third quarter, as the company invests in growth by hiring personnel and realigning divisions, with quick payback anticipated.

    12. Investor Appetite for Rentals
      Q: Are investors' interest in rentals changing?
      A: Paul Romanowski noted a slight uptick in investor interest for single-family rentals and multifamily, though caution remains due to current rates and cap rates.