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    DR Horton Inc (DHI)

    New Share Buyback Program

    D.R. Horton, Inc. is the largest homebuilding company in the United States, primarily engaged in constructing and selling single-family detached homes, which form the core of its business activities . The company also operates in rental operations, residential lot development, and financial services, contributing to its diverse portfolio . D.R. Horton offers mortgage financing and title agency services through DHI Mortgage, and engages in other activities such as insurance-related operations and owning water rights, though these are considered immaterial for separate reporting .

    1. Homebuilding - Constructs and sells single-family detached homes, with a smaller portion of revenue from attached homes like townhomes, duplexes, and triplexes.
    2. Rental Operations - Involves single-family and multi-family rental operations, including constructing, leasing, and selling residential rental properties.
    3. Residential Lot Development - Owns 62% of Forestar Group Inc., focusing on developing residential lots and maintaining relationships with land developers.
    4. Financial Services - Provides mortgage financing and title agency services through DHI Mortgage, primarily generating revenue from originating and selling mortgages and collecting fees for title insurance and closing services.
    5. Other Activities - Engages in insurance-related operations, owning water rights, and non-residential real estate, though these are not significant enough for separate reporting.
    Initial Price$164.32April 1, 2024
    Final Price$137.02July 1, 2024
    Price Change$-27.30
    % Change-16.61%

    What went well

    • D.R. Horton maintained solid margins and achieved their sales pace to hit their guidance for the year by relying on local operators to make pricing decisions based on market conditions, resulting in a strong financial position despite not pushing incentives aggressively.
    • The company has improved construction cycle times below historical norms due to healed supply chains, strengthened labor availability, and increased efficiency in the construction process, enhancing operational effectiveness.
    • D.R. Horton has strong relationships with seasoned land development companies, helping them find alternative capital sources, leading to 64% of closings coming from lots developed by others, which is a key part of their business strategy to efficiently secure lot supply and support future growth.

    What went wrong

    • D.R. Horton is facing increasing lot costs, which are expected to continue to climb, posing a significant headwind to profitability. The company stated, "We have continued to see increase in our lot cost... we do expect that to be a headwind for us... we just haven't seen much relief in that... we expect to see a continued climb."
    • Starts are down year-over-year, and the company acknowledges the need to increase starts to meet its growth goals, indicating potential challenges in maintaining growth momentum. As mentioned, "we are seeing efficiencies in our operation, which is why you've seen a little lower starts pace than maybe might have been expected... we're going to have to see some improvement in the overall... start space to keep pace with our growth goals."
    • Regional and community banks have pulled back from lending to lot developers, requiring D.R. Horton to help developers find alternative capital sources, which could present financing challenges if credit conditions tighten further. The company noted that "a lot of the regional and community banks have pulled back from that sort of lending, but there's been other capital sources willing to step up when the developer is working for somebody like D.R. Horton that we've been able to keep those folks in business producing lots for us."

    Q&A Summary

    1. Cash Flow and Capital Returns
      Q: Will consolidated cash flow increase next year, boosting buybacks and dividends?
      A: Yes, management expects consolidated cash flow to improve in fiscal 2025 due to efficiencies in homebuilding operations and stabilization of rental inventory levels. This should lead to higher share repurchases and dividends proportionate to the increased cash flow.

    2. Gross Margins and Cost Pressures
      Q: Will gross margins remain flat amid cost pressures?
      A: Management anticipates fourth-quarter gross margins to be relatively flat despite higher lot costs. Any pullback in interest rates is beneficial, potentially reducing incentive costs, but overall affordability issues persist.

    3. Interest Rates Impact on Demand
      Q: How are fluctuating interest rates affecting demand and incentives?
      A: Rate volatility caused choppy demand during the quarter. Buyers seek interest rate certainty, favoring homes closer to completion. The company offers permanent rate buydowns, with 77% of buyers using this option through their mortgage company, up from the prior quarter.

    4. Lot Costs Trends
      Q: What is the outlook on lot cost inflation?
      A: Lot costs continue to rise, up about 2.5% sequentially and low double-digit percentage year-over-year. Management does not expect significant moderation in lot cost increases and sees it as a headwind.

    5. Inventory Levels and Cycle Times
      Q: How are inventory levels and cycle times affecting operations?
      A: Improved cycle times have led to faster completion of homes, increasing finished spec inventory. However, management is comfortable with inventory levels, focusing on turning houses quickly without a buildup of aged inventory.

    6. Forestar Strategy
      Q: What are the plans for Forestar's future?
      A: Forestar is an important part of the company's strategy, operating in about 60 markets. As Forestar matures, management may consider its capitalization but currently focuses on supporting its growth and efficiency.

    7. Rental Business Outlook
      Q: What is the expectation for the rental platform in Q4?
      A: The rental business is included in the consolidated revenue guidance, but timing uncertainties cause lumpiness in numbers. No specific guidance on Q4 rental revenues was provided.

    8. Community Count Growth
      Q: Will community count growth continue to drive market share gains?
      A: Management anticipates community count growth to moderate but still contribute to market share gains. They hope to maintain mid- to high single-digit growth in community count to support consolidation efforts.

    9. Consumer Credit Quality
      Q: Are there changes in consumer ability to qualify for homes?
      A: Cancellation rates remain around 18%, at the low end of historical norms. Buyers now need higher incomes (averaging around $100,000) to qualify due to interest rates, but credit metrics remain stable.

    10. M&A Environment
      Q: What is the current outlook on mergers and acquisitions?
      A: The company prefers small tuck-in acquisitions to expand into new geographies and is selective about deals, with a good flow of opportunities.

    NamePositionStart DateShort Bio
    Donald R. HortonChairman & Strategic AdvisorOctober 1, 2023Donald R. Horton serves as the Chairman and Strategic Advisor at D.R. Horton, Inc. He transitioned to this role effective October 1, 2023, after serving as the Executive Chairman during fiscal 2023. As of September 30, 2023, he resigned as an executive officer of the company but continues to serve as Chairman and Strategic Advisor .
    David V. AuldExecutive Vice ChairOctober 2023David V. Auld began his career with D.R. Horton as a Division President from 1988 to 2005. He then served as Region President from 2005 to 2013, Executive Vice President and COO from 2013 to 2014, and President and CEO from 2014 to September 2023. He transitioned to Executive Vice Chair in October 2023 .
    Paul J. RomanowskiPresident & Chief Executive OfficerOctober 2023Paul J. Romanowski is the President and CEO of D.R. Horton, Inc., a position he has held since October 2023. He has been with the company since 1999, holding various leadership roles, including Executive Vice President and Co-Chief Operating Officer from October 2021 to September 2023 .
    Michael J. MurrayExecutive Vice President & Chief Operating Officer2014Michael J. Murray has been the Executive Vice President and COO since 2014. He served as Co-Chief Operating Officer in fiscal 2022 and 2023. He joined D.R. Horton in 2002 and has held various roles, including Senior Vice President of Business Development .
    Bill W. WheatExecutive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer2003Bill W. Wheat is the Executive Vice President and CFO of D.R. Horton, Inc., positions he has held since 2003. He joined the company in 1998 as an Accounting Manager and served as Senior Vice President and Controller from 2000 through 2003 .
    Barbara R. SmithIndependent DirectorAugust 26, 2024Barbara R. Smith was appointed as an independent director effective August 26, 2024. She has extensive experience in product, technology, and process innovation, having served as Chairman and CEO of Commercial Metals Company .
    M. Chad CrowIndependent DirectorAugust 26, 2024M. Chad Crow was appointed as an independent director effective August 26, 2024. He has over two decades of experience in the homebuilding industry and served as President and CEO of Builders FirstSource from 2017 until his retirement in 2021 .
    Elaine D. CrowleyIndependent DirectorAugust 26, 2024Elaine D. Crowley was appointed as an independent director effective August 26, 2024. She is an accomplished financial executive with deep expertise in accounting, finance, operational efficiency, and strategic leadership .
    1. Given that your cancellation rate increased to 18% in the quarter, up from 15% sequentially ( ), and you expect elevated incentives to remain, how do you plan to manage margins and profitability while maintaining sales volume under these challenging market conditions?

    2. With your rental property inventory at $3.1 billion and plans to maintain this level for the next several quarters ( ), how do you assess the risks associated with the rental market, and what is your long-term strategy for your rental operations amidst potential market volatility?

    3. Considering that 56% of your mortgage company's volume consists of FHA and VA loans, and 57% of the closings are with first-time homebuyers ( ), how are you managing the credit risks associated with this borrower profile, particularly in the event of an economic downturn?

    4. Despite achieving cycle times below historical norms due to improvements in supply chain and labor conditions ( ), how sustainable is this efficiency, and what impact do you anticipate if interest rates decrease and demand increases, potentially putting pressure on resources?

    5. Given the extended time frames for entitlements and lot development affecting your ability to return cash within 24 months on land deals ( ), what strategies are you implementing to mitigate these delays, and what proportion of your current communities are meeting this target?

    Program DetailsProgram 1
    Approval DateJuly 18, 2024
    End Date/DurationNo expiration date
    Total additional amount$4.0 billion
    Remaining authorization amount$3.6 billion as of September 30, 2024
    DetailsPart of capital allocation strategy to return capital to shareholders. Plans to repurchase approximately $1.5 billion of common stock in fiscal 2024.

    Q4 2024 Earnings Call

    • Issued Period: Q4 2024
    • Guided Period: FY 2025
    • Guidance:
      • Consolidated Revenues: Expected to be between $10 billion and $10.4 billion .
      • Homes Closed: Anticipated to be in the range of 24,000 to 24,500 homes .
      • Home Sales Gross Margin: Expected to be around 24% .
      • Homebuilding SG&A as a Percentage of Revenues: Approximately 7% .
      • Financial Services Pretax Profit Margin: Around 35% .
      • Quarterly Income Tax Rate: Expected to be approximately 24% to 24.3% .

    Q3 2024 Earnings Call

    • Issued Period: Q3 2024
    • Guided Period: Q4 2024 and FY 2024
    • Guidance for Q4 2024:
      • Consolidated Revenues: Expected to be between $10 billion to $10.4 billion .
      • Homes Closed: Anticipated to be in the range of 24,000 to 24,500 homes .
      • Home Sales Gross Margin: Expected to be around 24% .
      • Homebuilding SG&A as a Percentage of Revenues: Approximately 7% .
      • Financial Services Pretax Profit Margin: Around 35% .
      • Quarterly Income Tax Rate: Approximately 24% to 24.3% .
    • Guidance for FY 2024:
      • Consolidated Revenues: Expected to be between $36.8 million to $37.2 million .
      • Homes Closed: Anticipated to be in the range of 90,000 to 90,500 homes .
      • Cash Flow from Homebuilding Operations: Expected to generate approximately $3 billion .
      • Stock Repurchase: Plan to repurchase approximately $1.8 billion of common stock .

    Q2 2024 Earnings Call

    • Issued Period: Q2 2024
    • Guided Period: Q3 2024 and FY 2024
    • Guidance for Q3 2024:
      • Consolidated Revenues: Expected to be between $9.5 billion to $9.7 billion .
      • Homes Closed: Anticipated to be in the range of 23,500 to 24,000 homes .
      • Home Sales Gross Margin: Expected to be approximately 23% to 23.5% .
      • Homebuilding SG&A as a Percentage of Revenues: Expected to be approximately 7% .
      • Financial Services Pretax Profit Margin: Anticipated to be around 30% to 35% .
      • Quarterly Income Tax Rate: Expected to be approximately 24% .
    • Guidance for FY 2024:
      • Consolidated Revenues: Expected to be approximately $36.7 billion to $37.7 billion .
      • Homes Closed: Anticipated to be in the range of 89,000 to 91,000 homes .
      • Cash Flow from Homebuilding Operations: Expected to generate approximately $3 billion .
      • Common Stock Purchase: Plan to purchase approximately $1.6 billion of common stock .
      • Annual Dividend Payments: Around $400 million .
      • Income Tax Rate: Expected to be in the range of 23.5% to 24% .

    Q1 2024 Earnings Call

    • Issued Period: Q1 2024
    • Guided Period: Q2 2024 and FY 2024
    • Guidance for Q2 2024:
      • Consolidated Revenues: Expected to be between $8.1 billion and $8.3 billion .
      • Homes Closed: Expected to be in the range of 20,000 to 20,500 homes .
      • Home Sales Gross Margin: Expected to be approximately 22.6% to 23.1% .
      • Homebuilding SG&A as a Percentage of Revenues: Expected to be in the range of 7.5% to 7.7% .
      • Financial Services Pretax Profit Margin: Anticipated to be around 30% to 35% .
      • Quarterly Income Tax Rate: Expected to be approximately 23.5% to 24% .
    • Guidance for FY 2024:
      • Consolidated Revenues: Expected to be approximately $36 billion to $37.3 billion .
      • Homes Closed: Expected to be in the range of 87,000 to 90,000 homes .
      • Cash Flow from Homebuilding Operations: Expected to generate approximately $3 billion .
      • Share Repurchase: Plan to repurchase approximately $1.5 billion of common stock .
      • Annual Dividend Payments: Expected to be around $400 million .
      • Income Tax Rate for Fiscal 2024: Expected to be approximately 24% .

    Recent developments and announcements about DHI.

    Legal & Compliance

      Legal Proceedings

      ·
      Dec 23, 2024, 10:59 PM

      Summary of the Legal Matter Involving D.R. Horton, Inc.

      Key Parties Involved:

      • D.R. Horton, Inc.: The Borrower in the credit agreement.
      • Mizuho Bank, Ltd.: Acting as the Administrative Agent, Issuing Bank, and Lender.
      • Other Lenders: Include Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase Bank, TD Securities, U.S. Bank National Association, Wells Fargo Securities, and others .

      Nature of the Proceedings:

      • The document details Amendment No. 12 to the Credit Agreement originally dated September 7, 2012. This amendment was executed on December 18, 2024, and involves extending the termination date of the Series A Revolving Credit Commitments to December 18, 2029, modifying pricing, and increasing the Aggregate Revolving Credit Commitment to $2.23 billion .

      Potential Financial or Operational Consequences for the Company:

      • Financial Impact: The increase in the Aggregate Revolving Credit Commitment to $2.23 billion suggests enhanced liquidity for D.R. Horton, which could support its operational and strategic initiatives.
      • Operational Impact: The extension of the credit facility termination date provides D.R. Horton with a longer time frame to utilize the credit, potentially aiding in long-term planning and stability .

      This amendment reflects ongoing financial relationships and commitments between D.R. Horton and its lenders, which are crucial for its financial operations and strategic planning .

    Financial Actions

      New Share Buyback Program

      ·
      Dec 23, 2024, 10:59 PM

      D.R. Horton, Inc. has announced a new buyback program as of December 18, 2024. This program is part of their strategic financial management to enhance shareholder value .