DOLLAR TREE, INC. (DLTR) Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

Dollar Tree will report Q3 2025 results on December 3, 2025; Investor Day on October 15 reaffirmed Q3 and FY25 outlook and disclosed quarter‑to‑date comparable same‑store sales growth of 3.8% and $271M of Q3 share repurchases .
Management expects the ~$0.20 Q2 positive timing impact (inventory mark‑on/tariffs) to reverse in Q3, with adjusted diluted EPS “similar to Q3 2024” .
FY25 guidance raised on September 3: net sales to $19.3–$19.5B and adjusted EPS to $5.32–$5.72; gross margin improvement guided ~50 bps; comparable sales now 4–6% .
Strategic drivers into Q3: multi‑price rollout, pricing actions started late Q2 with less‑than‑expected unit elasticity, ongoing tariff mitigation, and strong higher‑income customer engagement .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Sales momentum and comp strength: Q2 comp +6.5% balanced by +3.0% traffic and +3.4% ticket; discretionary comp +6.1% in a seasonal lull quarter .
Pricing actions and mitigation: selective pricing began late Q2; unit volume impact was less than expected, validating multi‑price as a structural advantage .
Customer acquisition and mix: 2.4M LTM new customers by Q2; ~two‑thirds from >$100k households; repeat shoppers visiting 3+ times/month up 11% .

Management quote: “Even though we did take some price in Q2, units were still up. That tells us that our customer is accepting… and still finding value in our stores.” — CEO Mike Creedon .

What Went Wrong

Tariff volatility and timing: management flagged a reversal of Q2 timing benefits (~$0.20 EPS) in Q3; tariff headwinds shifting into H2 cadence .
SG&A deleverage and liability costs: adjusted SG&A rate up; general liability settlement costs rising industry‑wide; FY25 Dollar Tree segment SG&A deleveraging now ~120 bps .
TSA income lowered: FY25 transition services proceeds cut to $55–$60M (from ~$85–$90M), requiring cost actions to offset .

Financial Results

Quarterly actuals (continuing operations)

Metric	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Net Sales ($USD Billions)	$4.6365	$4.5668
Total Revenue ($USD Billions)	$4.6397	$4.5704
Diluted EPS (GAAP)	$1.47	$0.75
Adjusted Diluted EPS	$1.26	$0.77
Gross Margin %	35.6%	34.4%
Operating Margin % (GAAP)	8.3%	5.1%
Comparable Same‑Store Sales Growth	5.4%	6.5%
Traffic Growth	+2.5%	+3.0%
Ticket Growth	+2.8%	+3.4%

Q3 2025 quarter-to-date/outlook indicators

Metric	Q3 2025 (QTD/Outlook)
Comparable Same‑Store Sales Growth (QTD)	3.8%
Adjusted Diluted EPS (Outlook)	Similar to Q3 2024
Earnings Release & Call Timing	Dec 3, 2025, 8:00 a.m. ET

Segment breakdown (continuing operations)

Metric ($USD Millions)	Q1 2025 Dollar Tree	Q1 2025 Corporate	Q2 2025 Dollar Tree	Q2 2025 Corporate
Net Sales	$4,636.5	—	$4,566.8	—
Other Revenue	—	$3.2	—	$3.6
SG&A	$1,126.8	$141.8	$1,203.1	$147.6
Operating Income (Loss)	$522.7	$(138.6)	$367.0	$(136.0)

KPIs

KPI	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Ending Store Count	9,016	9,148
New Stores Opened	148	106
Stores Converted to Multi‑Price 3.0 (approx.)	~500	~585
Selling Square Footage (Millions)	79.6	81.2
Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)	$129.7	$15.6
Share Repurchases	5.9M shrs; $436.8M	5.0M shrs; $501.4M
Q3 Quarter‑to‑Date Share Repurchases	2.8M shrs; $271M

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Net Sales (FY)	FY 2025	$18.5–$19.1B	$19.3–$19.5B	Raised
Adjusted Diluted EPS (FY)	FY 2025	$5.15–$5.65	$5.32–$5.72	Raised
Comparable Sales (FY)	FY 2025	3%–5%	4%–6%	Raised
Gross Margin Improvement	FY 2025	+50–75 bps	~+50 bps	Slightly Lower
TSA Proceeds	FY 2025	~$85–$90M	~$55–$60M	Lowered
Corporate SG&A (pre‑TSA) YoY	FY 2025	~+20%	~+11%–12%	Lowered
Capex	FY 2025	$1.2–$1.3B	$1.2–$1.3B	Maintained
Adjusted EPS (Quarter)	Q3 2025	“Similar to Q3 2024”	Reaffirmed; EPS not adjusted for Q3 buybacks	Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1 2025)	Previous Mentions (Q2 2025)	Current Period (Q3 2025)	Trend
Tariffs/Macro	Mitigate via five levers; Q2 EPS could be down 45–50% YoY from timing	Tariff headwinds shifted into H2; pricing actions started earlier	Q3 adjusted EPS similar to Q3 2024; outlook reaffirmed	Persistent volatility; mitigation ongoing
Multi‑Price Assortment	3.0 outperforming; half of base targeted by year‑end	Distinctions between formats blurring; broader assortment lifting comps	Continued rollout implied; focus on value/discovery	Structural
Pricing Elasticity	Planning selective pricing; aim to sustain value	Units up despite pricing; less elasticity than expected	Q3 EPS not adjusted for buyback benefit; comps 3.8% QTD	Supportive
Supply Chain	DC rebuild and freight benefits; capex peak in 2025	Healthy inventory; freight favorable; DC realignment gains	No new Q3 supply chain disclosures in PRs	Stable
Customer Mix	Higher‑income growth; 2.6M new customers	~2/3 of new customers >$100k; repeat visitors up 11%	QTD comp +3.8%; outlook reaffirmed	Sustained engagement
TSA/Corporate Cost	TSA ~$85–$90M; corporate SG&A +20% YoY	TSA ~$55–$60M; corporate SG&A +11–12% YoY	Outlook reaffirmed; no new TSA update in Q3 PRs	Lower TSA vs plan
Liability/Shrink	Not highlighted	Liability settlement costs rising; some shrink/markdown pressure	No new Q3 detail	Ongoing headwinds
Digital/Delivery	Not highlighted	Uber Eats partnership launch	No new Q3 update	Early progress

Management Commentary

“Our expanded assortment strategy is having the intended impact of driving incremental traffic, ticket, and comp… Adjusted EPS from continuing operations came in a penny above our outlook range at $1.26.” — CEO Mike Creedon, Q1 .
“Q2 gross margin increased 20 basis points to 34.4%… lower merchandise costs driven by higher inventory mark‑on and lower freight, as well as favorable pricing that helped us offset higher tariffs.” — CFO Stewart Glendinning .
“We still have 85% of the store at $2 or less… We are really focused on what the customer wants… leveraging MultiPrice to deliver for the customer.” — CEO Mike Creedon .

Q&A Highlights

Tariff mitigation and EPS cadence: Management detailed ~$115M stickering/resignage costs in 2025, one‑time mark‑on benefits, and H2 tariff headwinds, aiming to maintain gross margin into 2026 .
SG&A and store labor: SG&A deleverage led by store payroll and depreciation; incremental Q2 investments expected to unwind next year .
Pricing strategy and consumer elasticity: Units held up despite price increases; pricing actions continued with restickering as holiday replenishment arrives .
Inventory planning and in‑stocks: Early freight and store hours investment to execute Halloween/holiday sets; DCs in best position in years .
TSA and corporate costs: TSA lowered to ~$55–$60M, offset by other cost savings to hit FY targets; SG&A trajectory being managed for 2026 .

Estimates Context

Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q3 2025 EPS and revenue was unavailable due to S&P Global daily request limits at the time of this analysis. Estimates will be incorporated post‑release when accessible via S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Q3 print is on December 3; Investor Day reaffirmed Q3/FY25 outlook with QTD comp +3.8% and $271M buybacks, a potential EPS tailwind not yet reflected in Q3 guidance .
Expect adjusted EPS pressure in Q3 from reversal of ~$0.20 Q2 timing benefit; focus on gross margin preservation amid tariff cadence .
Pricing actions appear accepted (units up in Q2); multi‑price is structurally expanding assortment and discretionary penetration, supporting comp durability .
Watch SG&A trajectory and liability costs; Dollar Tree segment SG&A deleverage guided wider for FY25 (~120 bps), with investments expected to taper in 2026 .
TSA income lowered ($55–$60M) vs initial plan; management targeting offsetting efficiencies—monitor 2026 SG&A roadmap .
Share repurchases remain active (Q3 QTD $271M), potentially aiding EPS, though Q3 EPS outlook not adjusted for buyback benefit—track any update on call .
Freight and supply chain execution favorable; inventory and DCs positioned well for holidays, supporting near‑term sales cadence .

Notes and sources:

Q3 earnings timing and call details: Form 8‑K and press release dated Nov 19, 2025 .
Q2 press release and 8‑K: Sept 3, 2025 – –.
Q1 press release and call transcript: June 4, 2025 – –.
Investor Day press release: Oct 15, 2025 –.
Workforce/operations press: Oct 14, 2025 (Legion WFM) –.