DOMINOS PIZZA INC (DPZ) Q1 2026 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

Q1 2026 results are not yet published; this recap is a pre‑earnings setup anchored on S&P Global consensus and recent trends from Q2–Q3 2025. Domino’s latest posted quarters show accelerating U.S. comps (+3.4% in Q2 → +5.2% in Q3) with carryout and delivery both positive, supported by Best Deal Ever value, Parmesan Stuffed Crust, and early DoorDash ramp . The company reiterated 2025 operating income growth of ~8% ex-FX and 3% U.S. SSS, while flagging an industry macro slowdown entering Q4 2025 .
Consensus for Q1 2026 implies roughly flat EPS vs Q1 2025 and low single‑digit revenue growth ($1.176B Revenue, $4.34 EPS; 20/23 estimate counts), setting up a “prove‑it” quarter on order count and aggregator compounding into 2026 (S&P Global) [Values retrieved from S&P Global].
Strategic drivers remain intact: aggregator rollout (full DoorDash ramp in Q4 into 2026), loyalty compounding, brand refresh, and non-LTO menu innovation underpining sustained share gains vs a value-pressured QSR pizza category .
Key catalysts to monitor into Q1 2026: order count breadth, aggregator incrementality (~50% target reiterated), pricing/mix vs value barbell, and international unit growth stabilization ex‑DPE markets .

Note: No Q1 2026 earnings materials are posted on Domino’s investor site as of today; the latest published quarter is Q3 2025 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- U.S. comps accelerated to +5.2% in Q3 2025, with both carryout (+8.7%) and delivery (+2.5%) positive, driven by Best Deal Ever and Stuffed Crust; mgmt: “order count growth was positive” and “meaningful market share growth” .
- Supply chain margin expanded YoY (+70 bps in Q3; +50 bps in Q2) on procurement productivity, supporting operating income growth (+12.2% in Q3; +14.8% in Q2) .
- Aggregators: Uber progress and first full quarter on DoorDash in Q3; mgmt expects multi‑year compounding and “fair share” on platforms to build through 2026 .
Select quotes:
- “Best Deal Ever…was a meaningful driver of our strong U.S. results in Q3” .
- “Parmesan Stuffed Crust…continues to meet the expectations…on every level: mix, incremental new customers, and franchisee profitability” .
- “This is the first full quarter…on DoorDash…we expect…meaningful contributor to our U.S. comps in Q4” .
What Went Wrong
- GAAP EPS fell YoY in Q2 and Q3 due to mark‑to‑market on DPC Dash and higher tax rates; Q3 EPS $4.08 (-2.6% YoY), Q2 EPS $3.81 (-5.5% YoY) despite strong operating income .
- Company‑owned store gross margin compressed on higher food basket/pricing to stores and insurance/wage costs (Q2: -200 bps; Q3: -50 bps YoY) .
- Macro: mgmt cited an industry slowdown early in Q4 2025 that could pressure FY U.S. comp, even as share gains continue .

Financial Results

Q2–Q3 2025 actuals and Q1 2026 consensus (oldest → newest):

Metric	Q2 2025	Q3 2025	Q1 2026 (Consensus)
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$1,145.1	$1,147.1	$1,175.5*
Diluted EPS ($)	$3.81	$4.08	$4.34*
EBIT Margin %	19.7%	19.5%	N/A
Net Income Margin %	11.4%	12.1%	N/A

Asterisked values are S&P Global consensus. Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment revenue breakdown (actuals):

Revenue Component ($USD Millions)	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
U.S. Company‑owned stores	$92.5	$82.7
U.S. franchise royalties & fees	$156.3	$157.2
Supply chain	$687.1	$697.0
International franchise royalties & fees	$77.2	$78.5
U.S. franchise advertising	$132.2	$131.6
Total Revenues	$1,145.1	$1,147.1

Selected KPIs and store development:

KPI	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Global retail sales growth ex‑FX	+5.6%	+6.3%
U.S. same‑store sales	+3.4%	+5.2%
International same‑store sales (ex‑FX)	+2.4%	+1.7%
U.S. carryout comp	+5.8%	+8.7%
U.S. delivery comp	+1.5%	+2.5%
Net new stores (global)	+178	+214

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
U.S. same‑store sales	FY 2025	~3% (Q2 call)	~3%; macro could pressure Q4	Maintained; macro caution
International SSS (ex‑FX)	FY 2025	1%–2% (Q2 call)	1%–2%, could tilt high end absent macro/geopolitical impacts	Maintained
U.S. net store growth	FY 2025	175+ (Q2 call)	175 (pipeline strong)	Maintained
Operating income growth (ex‑FX, adj)	FY 2025	~8% (ex‑FX, adj)	~8% (ex‑FX, adj)	Maintained
Dividend	Q3→Q4 2025	$1.74 declared for Sep 30 payment	$1.74 declared for Dec 26 payment	Maintained

Notes: “Adj” excludes severance and refranchising per company framing .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)	Current Period (Q1 2026)	Trend
Value barbell (Best Deal Ever, Boost Weeks, Tips)	Q2: Value tailwinds; Best Deal Ever running through early Aug . Q3: Best Deal Ever extended by franchisee demand; profitable order count focus .	Not yet reported	Strengthening; sustained focus on profitable order counts
Aggregators (Uber/ DoorDash)	Q2: Uber on track; DoorDash national rollout complete; back‑half ramp expected .	Q3: First full quarter on DoorDash; compounding through 2026; ~50% incrementality reiterated .	Not yet reported
Menu innovation (Stuffed Crust)	Q2: Launch met high expectations; ticket accretive; evergreen menu .	Q3: Continues to perform; ops execution in complex product .	Not yet reported
U.S. comps & order counts	Q2: +3.4% SSS; order counts positive .	Q3: +5.2% SSS; order count positive; share gains .	Not yet reported
Macro/industry	Q2: QSR pizza ~flat 1H; Domino’s outpaced .	Q3: Restaurant slowdown at start of Q4; macro could pressure FY comp .	Not yet reported
International growth	Q2: Strong India/China; DPE closures mostly behind; 2025–26 plans intact ex‑DPE .	Q3: Similar color; int’l SSS +1.7% ex‑FX; net +185 int’l stores .	Not yet reported

Management Commentary

Strategic posture: “We will be able to achieve our goal of 3% same store sales in the U.S. and continue to take meaningful market share…in 2026 and beyond” .
Value and profitability: “We price for profitability of the franchisees…grow at a steady rate on [aggregator] channel…discounts that you can sustain” .
Aggregators: “First quarter fully rolled out on DoorDash…meaningful contributor to our U.S. comps in Q4…aggregators are a multi‑year tailwind” .
Innovation: “Parmesan Stuffed Crust…continues to meet expectations on mix, incremental new customers, and franchisee profitability” .
E‑commerce & brand: “Fully live with our website and mobile web…conversion equal to or better…apps by year‑end” and a new brand refresh (first in 13 years) .

Q&A Highlights

Macro watch: “Sequential slowing across the restaurant industry” early Q4; FY comp could be pressured if it intensifies, but share gains expected to continue .
Development: Confidence in 175 U.S. net stores in 2025; path toward ~7,700 by 2028; broadened builder base .
Aggregators incrementality: Still confident around ~50%; Uber skews urban/higher income; DoorDash larger and more rural .
Carryout vs delivery: Carryout growth driven by loyalty and value; limited crossover; both channels set to grow .
Supply chain margin: Procurement productivity continues but magnitude may taper; seasonality acknowledged .

Estimates Context

S&P Global consensus for Q1 2026: Revenue $1,175.5M*, EPS $4.34*, EBITDA $250.8M*, with 20–23 estimates contributing. Set‑up implies roughly flat EPS vs Q1 2025 actual ($4.33) and modest revenue growth vs $1,112.1M in Q1 2025 (S&P Global; Q1 2025 actuals below) [Values retrieved from S&P Global].
Anchor actuals (Q1 2025): Revenue $1,112.1M; Net income $149.7M; Diluted EPS $4.33; Operating income $210.1M; EBITDA $230.5M [GetFinancials, S&P Global]*.
Estimate revision watch items: order count breadth, aggregator ramp cadence post full DoorDash rollout, mix from Stuffed Crust, and any macro commentary update (industry slowdown noted at start of Q4 2025) .
Asterisked values are S&P Global consensus/financials. Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Domino’s enters Q1 2026 with momentum in U.S. comps, multi‑year aggregator tailwind, and loyalty/brand refresh compounding effects; focus on order counts and share gains remains central .
Near‑term macro is the main risk; mgmt flagged a restaurant slowdown early in Q4 2025, but reiterated core FY 2025 targets and share‑gain confidence .
Profitability quality is supported by supply chain productivity and disciplined “renowned value” pricing aimed at franchisee profit dollars, not just rate metrics .
Watch KPIs: carryout and delivery comps, aggregator mix and incrementality, and international unit growth outside DPE markets .
Tactical setup: Q1 2026 consensus implies modest growth; upside would likely require stronger order count, faster aggregator build, and sustained Stuffed Crust mix without margin slippage (S&P Global; company commentary) [Values retrieved from S&P Global] .
Capital returns continue (dividend $1.74/share; buybacks), with leverage ratio trending down (4.9x→4.5x TTM by Q3) post-refi .

Supporting sources:

Q3 2025 press release tables, KPIs, margins, dividend, leverage .
Q3 2025 earnings call transcript (strategy, value, aggregators, macro, development) .
Q2 2025 press release tables, KPIs, margins, dividend .
Q2 2025 earnings call (setup for H2, carryout/delivery comps, procurement productivity) .
Investor site confirms latest posted quarters (no Q1 2026 materials yet) .