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DOMINOS PIZZA INC (DPZ) Q3 2026 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2026 results are not yet filed; Street expects revenue of $1.209B and EPS of $4.535, implying modest sequential growth and YoY expansion versus Q3 2025 actuals; EBITDA consensus is $255.3M* [Values retrieved from S&P Global].
  • Trend context from Q3 2025: U.S. same-store sales +5.2%, carryout +8.7%, delivery +2.5%, with DoorDash fully rolled out and Stuffed Crust and “Best Deal Ever” driving positive order counts .
  • Q3 2025 beat: Revenue $1.147B vs Street $1.136B, EPS $4.08 vs $3.96, and EBITDA $243.6M vs $235.4M; income from operations +12.2% YoY, supply chain margin +70 bps; Net income down on DPC Dash investment mark-to-market and higher tax rate .
  • Management reiterated FY 2025 U.S. comp +3% and operating income growth ~8% (ex-FX), with macro softness intensifying early Q4 as a watch item; U.S. net stores +175 expected, intl SSS +1–2% (tilt to high end if macro stable) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Positive U.S. order counts and market share gains driven by “Best Deal Ever” and Parmesan Stuffed Crust; carryout +8.7%, delivery +2.5% in Q3 2025 .
  • DoorDash fully rolled out; management expects compounding aggregator impact through 2026; Uber tracking to plan, DoorDash larger channel .
  • Supply chain margin +70 bps YoY on procurement productivity; income from operations +12.2% YoY; consolidated free cash flow T3Q $495.6M (+31.8% YoY) .

Quote: “Best Deal Ever is driving franchisee profitability… our franchisees asked to bring it back.” — Russell Weiner .

What Went Wrong

  • Net income and diluted EPS declined YoY due to unfavorable DPC Dash investment P&L and higher effective tax rate (22.3% vs 20.4%) .
  • U.S. company-owned store gross margin down 50 bps YoY on higher food basket pricing and wages .
  • Macro headwinds intensified across restaurant industry at the start of Q4 2025; management warned of potential pressure on full-year U.S. comp if worsened .

Financial Results

Actuals vs sequential

MetricQ2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$1,145.1 $1,147.1
Diluted EPS ($)$3.81 $4.08
Income from Operations ($USD Millions)$225.0 $223.2
EBIT Margin (%)19.7% 19.5%
Net Income ($USD Millions)$131.1 $139.3

Street estimates setup and Q3 2025 beat/miss

MetricQ3 2025 EstimateQ3 2025 ActualΔ vs EstimateQ1 2026EQ2 2026EQ3 2026E
Revenue ($USD Millions)1,136.3*1,147.1 +$10.8M (beat)1,175.5*1,208.4*1,209.5*
Primary EPS ($)3.9627*4.08 +$0.12 (beat)4.336*4.459*4.535*
EBITDA ($USD Millions)235.4*243.6 +$8.2M (beat)250.8*254.1*255.3*
EBIT ($USD Millions)214.0*223.2 +$9.2M (beat)228.5*232.2*233.7*
# of EPS Estimates28*——23*23*23*
# of Revenue Estimates23*——20*20*20*

Note: Asterisks (*) denote values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment breakdown (reported)

Segment Revenue ($USD Thousands)Q2 2025Q3 2025
U.S. Company-owned stores$92,456 $82,749
U.S. franchise royalties & fees$156,261 $157,155
Supply chain$687,062 $696,959
International franchise royalties & fees$77,164 $78,549
U.S. franchise advertising$132,201 $131,642
Total revenues$1,145,144 $1,147,054

KPIs and unit growth

KPIQ2 2025Q3 2025
Global retail sales – U.S. ($USD mm)$2,335.6 $2,320.4
Global retail sales – Intl ($USD mm)$2,334.2 $2,375.8
Global retail sales – Total ($USD mm)$4,669.8 $4,696.2
U.S. same-store sales (%)+3.4% +5.2%
Intl same-store sales ex-FX (%)+2.4% +1.7%
Net store growth – U.S. (units)+30 +29
Net store growth – Intl (units)+148 +185
Net store growth – Total (units)+178 +214
U.S. company-owned gross margin (%)15.6% 16.3%
Supply chain gross margin (%)11.8% 11.3%

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
U.S. same-store salesFY 2025~+3% ~+3% (macro softness noted early Q4) Maintained
International same-store salesFY 2025+1% to +2% +1% to +2% (tilt to high end if macro/geopolitical stable) Maintained
Operating income growth (ex-FX)FY 2025~+8% (ex-FX/severance/refranchising) ~+8% (ex-FX/severance/refranchising) Maintained
U.S. net store growthFY 2025~+175 stores ~+175 stores Maintained
Intl net store growthFY 2025In line with 2024 In line with 2024; China/India strong, DPE closures largely behind Maintained (context updated)
Quarterly dividendQ4 2025$1.74/share (declared July 15) $1.74/share (declared Oct 7) Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2025)Previous Mentions (Q3 2025)Current Period (Q3 2026)Trend
Aggregators (Uber/DoorDash)Uber rollout complete; DoorDash rollout, awareness/marketing to build in H2 First full quarter on DoorDash; expect compounding impact into 2026 Not yet reportedStructural tailwind building
Renowned value (Best Deal Ever)Running through early Aug; value focus Extended by franchisee demand; profitable and order-count accretive Not yet reportedCore growth lever
Product innovation (Stuffed Crust)High mix and ticket; medium pan strategy Continues to meet expectations; operational execution strong Not yet reportedEvergreen contributor
Carryout vs deliveryCarryout +5.8%; delivery +1.5% Carryout +8.7%; delivery +2.5% Not yet reportedBalanced growth
Macro/industry backdropPizza category roughly flat H1; pricing below inflation strategy Macro softness intensified early Q4 Not yet reportedKey watch item
Supply chain productivityProcurement productivity driving margin +70 bps supply chain margin YoY Not yet reportedSustained but tapering gains
International (DPE vs China/India)Strong India/China unit plans; DPE closures noted DPE closures largely behind; China ~300, India ~250 openings Not yet reportedChina/India lead growth
Technology/e-commerceNew platform roll-out measured; conversion goals Website/mobile web live; apps by year-end Not yet reportedUX enhancements continue

Management Commentary

  • “We grew in all areas key to our success… carryout… delivery… order count growth… market share growth.” — CEO Russell Weiner (Q3 2025) .
  • “We expect aggregators to continue to grow… DoorDash is bigger than Uber… compounding impact into 2026.” — CEO Russell Weiner (Q3 2025) .
  • “Income from operations increased 11.8% in Q3 excluding FX… primarily due to higher U.S. franchise royalties and fees and supply chain gross margin dollar growth.” — CFO Sandeep Reddy (Q3 2025) .
  • Brand refresh: “Hungry for MORE… bringing the focus back to delicious products and experience… ‘Dommmino’s™’ jingle.” — CMO Kate Trumbull (Oct 2025) .

Q&A Highlights

  • Macro and U.S. comp: Management reiterated ~3% FY 2025 U.S. comp but noted an industry-wide sequential slowing to start Q4; share gains expected to continue despite pressure .
  • Aggregator strategy: ~50% incrementality expected; Uber more urban/higher income, DoorDash more rural; pricing for franchisee profitability, steady build through 2026 .
  • Franchisee economics/store growth: Strong pipeline supports ~175 U.S. net openings; broader builder base; competitive closures expand white space .
  • Supply chain margins: Procurement-led improvements sustained; seasonal utilities impact acknowledged; pace likely tapers .
  • Value strategy: Focus on order counts and frequency over pure ticket; “Best Deal Ever” extended by franchisee demand, consumers value customizable pizzas .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2026 Street setup: Revenue $1,209.5M*, EPS $4.535*, EBITDA $255.3M*, EBIT $233.7M*; Q1–Q2 2026 also modeled higher than Q3 2025 actuals, indicating continued multi-factor growth (value, aggregators, innovation)*.
  • Q3 2025 print vs Street: Revenue beat by ~$10.8M, EPS beat by ~$0.12, EBITDA beat by ~$8.2M; operational outperformance offset by investment and tax effects .
MetricQ3 2025 ActualQ3 2025 EstimateQ1 2026EQ2 2026EQ3 2026E
Revenue ($USD Millions)1,147.1 1,136.3*1,175.5*1,208.4*1,209.5*
Primary EPS ($)4.08 3.9627*4.336*4.459*4.535*
EBITDA ($USD Millions)243.6 235.4*250.8*254.1*255.3*
EBIT ($USD Millions)223.2 214.0*228.5*232.2*233.7*

Note: Asterisks (*) denote values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Set-up into Q3 2026: Street models solid sequential and YoY growth; narrative drivers remain renowned value, aggregator build, and product innovation; monitor macro softness and food basket/wage pressure* [Values retrieved from S&P Global] .
  • Q3 2025 execution confirms playbook: Promotions and innovation drove order counts and share gains, with supply chain margin improvement offsetting cost inflation .
  • Aggregators are a multi-year tailwind: Full DoorDash rollout and Uber maturation should compound through 2026 while maintaining franchisee profitability discipline .
  • Free cash flow and capital return: Strong FCF T3Q and maintained $1.74 dividend underscore balance sheet resiliency post-refinancing .
  • International trajectory: China/India store growth offsets DPE drag; closures largely behind, improving visibility for 2026 .
  • Watch items for revision risk: Effective tax rate volatility, FX on operating income, and investment mark-to-market (e.g., DPC Dash) can swing GAAP EPS .
  • Near-term catalysts: Continued “Best Deal Ever” execution, brand refresh rollout, and app launch completion could support order conversion and narrative momentum .

S&P Global disclaimer: All values marked with an asterisk (*) are retrieved from S&P Global consensus data.

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