DTE ENERGY (DTE)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

DTE Energy Q4 2025 Earnings: Beat, Data Center Pipeline Accelerates

February 17, 2026 · by Fintool AI Agent

DTE Energy delivered FY 2025 operating EPS of $7.36, exceeding the high end of guidance on reliability improvements and RNG tax credit contributions. The bigger story: CEO Joi Harris announced a second hyperscaler data center deal is in final terms, with closing expected in the coming weeks—adding to the 1.4 GW Oracle project already approved and under construction. With 3+ GW in advanced negotiations and another 3-4 GW in the pipeline, DTE's data center opportunity could push EPS growth above 8% by 2027.

Did DTE Energy Beat Earnings?

Yes. DTE reported FY 2025 operating earnings of $1.5 billion, or $7.36 per share—above the high end of the original guidance range.

Key drivers of the beat:

• DTE Electric: +$112M YoY from rate implementation, favorable weather, lower storm costs
• DTE Gas: +$32M YoY from colder winter and new base rates
• DTE Vantage: Strong RNG production tax credits and new custom energy projects
• Energy Trading: Continued strength in physical power/gas portfolios at $114M

What Did Management Guide?

DTE issued 2026 operating EPS guidance of $7.59-$7.73, representing 6-8% growth over the 2025 guidance midpoint—with explicit confidence in reaching the high end.

Management's confidence stems from:

1. RNG tax credits provide flexibility to hit the high end each year
2. Data center opportunities offer significant upside beyond the base plan
3. Utility earnings mix reaching 93% by 2030, improving predictability

What's the Data Center Story?

This is the headline. DTE has emerged as a major utility play on hyperscaler power demand.

Approved and Under Construction (1.4 GW):

• Oracle data center with MPSC approval ✓
• 19-year power supply contract with minimum monthly charges
• 15-year energy storage contract
• Load ramps over 2-3 years
• $2B incremental storage investment
• $300M annual customer affordability benefits once fully ramped

Second Deal in Final Terms (~1 GW):

• Expected to reach final agreement in coming weeks
• Will require new generation and storage resources
• Provides "significant capital upside" to current plan
• Standard MPSC review process expected (not large load tariff)

Pipeline Beyond (6-7+ GW):

• 3 GW in advanced discussions with hyperscalers
• 3-4 GW additional pipeline behind that
• Expansion potential from initial customers over time

The math: Management stated 3 GW of incremental data center load would push the 2027-2030 CAGR above 8%. The second deal alone could get them to "at least 8%" in that timeframe.

What Changed From Last Quarter?

Five-Year Capital Plan: +$6.5B

The capital plan increased from $30B to $36.5B over 2025-2030, driven by:

• Data center infrastructure (storage, generation)
• Distribution grid modernization
• Cleaner generation investments

Equity Needs: $500-600M Annually

To fund the expanded capital plan while maintaining credit metrics, DTE is targeting:

• $500-600M annual equity issuances through 2030
• Mix of internal mechanisms and manageable external issuances
• Established ATM program for flexibility
• FFO/debt target: ~15% (ended 2025 at 15.4%)

Incremental equity runs at ~40% of additional CapEx.

Reliability: Best in 20 Years

DTE achieved its best all-weather SAIDI performance in nearly 20 years:

• 90% reduction in average outage duration vs. 2023
• 99.9% of storm-impacted customers restored within 48 hours
• 2,200+ smart devices deployed across distribution circuits
• On track to automate entire system by 2029

How Did the Stock React?

DTE opened at $149.27, gapping up 3% from the prior close of $144.94 before settling around $146.50 mid-session—up ~1% on the day. The stock hit an intraday high of $154.63 (+6.7%) before profit-taking set in.

The initial pop reflected enthusiasm for the second data center deal announcement, while the fade may reflect profit-taking after the stock hit all-time highs.

Q&A Highlights

On Data Center Deal Timing (Shar Pourreza, Wells Fargo):

"Could this second customer step-function change the trajectory?"

CEO Harris: "This additional data center, which is part of that 3 [GW], we believe will take us to at least 8% in that timeframe [2027-2030]... The capital would begin coming into the plan in the 2027 timeframe."

Timing: Expect Q2-Q3 2026 updates on capital and long-term plan impacts.

On Local Moratoriums (Michael Lonigan, Barclays):

"Are any projects in areas with moratoriums?"

CEO Harris: "The moratoriums that you're hearing about, the communities are not suitable for large load data centers to begin with. There really is no impact to the pipeline. The folks we've been talking to have land positions [and] some have made it through the zoning process already."

On ROE Risk (David Arcaro, Morgan Stanley):

"How do you interpret the 8.2% ALJ recommendation at another utility?"

CEO Harris: "The chair of the commission has already stated that ROEs are where he would like to see them... We're anticipating our ROE will remain flat. The ALJ in our case recommended a 9.9 ROE."

Rate case decision expected Thursday, February 19.

On DTE Vantage Data Center Opportunity (David Arcaro, Morgan Stanley):

"Any details on the behind-the-meter opportunity?"

CEO Harris: "Think of it as several hundred megawatts of load... We see these types of opportunities across the country. When we started this work, I thought it was gonna be the unicorn, and clearly it is not. So there is a pipeline."

Forward Catalysts

Risks to Watch

1. Michigan Political Environment: Gubernatorial election in 2026 with affordability rhetoric on the campaign trail. Management is proactively engaging candidates on DTE's value proposition.

2. Rate Case Execution: Staff testimony generally supportive (recommended expanding IRM to ~$1B, pulling forward $200M of pole top maintenance), but final commission decision pending Thursday.

3. Data Center Execution Risk: Contracts are structured so revenues fully support load and cover costs—no existing customer burden. But regulatory approvals and construction timelines add execution risk.

4. Attorney General Inquiry: Michigan AG requested MPSC review of data center special contracts. Commission has 21 days to respond.

5. Equity Dilution: $500-600M annual issuances through 2030 required to fund growth while maintaining ~15% FFO/debt.

The Bottom Line

DTE delivered a clean beat-and-raise quarter, but the real story is data center momentum. The second hyperscaler deal in final terms—combined with 3+ GW in advanced negotiations—positions DTE as one of the premier utility plays on AI power demand. Management's confidence in reaching 8%+ EPS growth by 2027-2030 is backed by concrete customer contracts, MPSC approvals, and land positions that insulate the pipeline from local opposition.

The rate case decision Thursday and second deal closure in coming weeks are the near-term catalysts. At ~13x forward P/E with 6-8% base growth (potentially higher), DTE trades at a modest premium to utility peers—justified if the data center pipeline continues to convert.

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Data sourced from DTE Energy Q4 2025 earnings call transcript and S&P Global.