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Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Duolingo delivered a high-quality quarter: revenue grew 41% YoY to $252.3M, Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded ~4 pts YoY to 31.2%, and net income rose 84% YoY to $44.8M .
  • Results beat Wall Street consensus: revenue topped by ~4.8% and S&P normalized EPS by ~188%; management raised FY25 bookings, revenue, and Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance midpoints (to 32% bookings growth, 36% revenue growth, and ~28.75% margin) . Revenue/EPS consensus comparisons are shown below with S&P Global values*.
  • Positive gross margin mix/timing: gross margin improved sequentially by 130 bps to 72.4% on lower-than-expected AI costs and ads strength; FY25 gross margin YoY decline now seen at ~100 bps vs ~150 bps previously .
  • Near-term catalysts: Energy pacing rollout (boosting DAUs, time spent, conversion), continued Max enhancements (Video Call engagement, bilingual options), Asia/China momentum (Luckin partnership), and potential payment cost tailwinds from web checkout testing .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Broad-based outperformance: total bookings and revenue up 41% YoY; subscription revenues up 46% YoY; Adjusted EBITDA up 64% with margin at 31.2% .
  • Engagement and conversion tailwinds: Energy pacing “increased DAUs, median time spent learning and subscriber conversion” on iOS, a rare multi-metric move per management .
  • Strategic product momentum: Chess DAUs surpassed 1M on iOS/UI-English; Max share grew to ~8% of subs; ARPU up 6% YoY on mix shift to higher-priced tiers .

Quotes:

  • “We exceeded our own high expectations for bookings and revenue this quarter, and did it while expanding profitability.” — CEO Luis von Ahn
  • “We expanded gross margin by 130 basis points to 72.4% from Q1 to Q2, due to lower-than-expected AI costs and strength in our ads business.” — Shareholder letter

What Went Wrong

  • Max mix grew less than expected: Max penetration increased to ~8% but under plan due to Super growing faster; beginner users find Video Call too difficult—driving focus on bilingual/engagement improvements .
  • U.S. growth deceleration tied to social sentiment: DAU growth landed at the low end (40%) after pausing “edgier” social posts to restore sentiment, mainly impacting U.S. youth cohorts .
  • DET macro headwinds: Duolingo English Test softer given reduced international student applications to U.S./U.K.; management embedded this in guidance .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$178.3 $230.7 $252.3
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.51 $0.72 $0.91
Gross Margin (%)73.4% 71.1% 72.4%
Net Income ($USD Millions)$24.4 $35.1 $44.8
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$48.1 $62.8 $78.7
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)27.0% 27.2% 31.2%
Subscription Revenues ($USD Millions)$143.9 $191.0 $210.7

KPI trends

KPIQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
DAUs (Millions)34.1 46.6 47.7
MAUs (Millions)103.6 130.2 128.3
Paid Subscribers (Millions, period-end)8.0 10.3 10.9

Consensus vs Actual (S&P Global)*

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue Actual ($USD Millions)$230.7 $252.3
Revenue Consensus ($USD Millions)$223.1*$240.8*
Revenue Surprise (%)+3.4%*+4.8%*
Primary EPS Actual ($)1.2618*1.6979*
Primary EPS Consensus ($)0.5169*0.5895*
EPS Surprise (%)+144%*+188%*

*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Additional detail (Q2 2025 income statement highlights):

  • Other (expense) income, net: +$1.66M
  • Interest income: +$11.43M
  • Provision for income taxes: $1.67M

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Bookings ($M)FY 2025$1,117.5–$1,126.5 $1,149–$1,157 Raised
YoY Bookings Growth (%)FY 202528.4%–29.4% 32.0%–32.9% Raised
Revenue ($M)FY 2025$987–$996 $1,011–$1,019 Raised
YoY Revenue Growth (%)FY 202531.9%–33.2% 35.2%–36.2% Raised
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)FY 2025$271.4–$283.9 $288.1–$295.5 Raised
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)FY 202527.5%–28.5% 28.5%–29.0% Raised
Gross Margin (YoY change)FY 2025~–150 bps ~–100 bps Less negative
Bookings ($M)Q3 2025N/A$268.5–$272.5 Newly provided
YoY Bookings Growth (%)Q3 2025N/A27.0%–28.9% Newly provided
Revenue ($M)Q3 2025N/A$257–$261 Newly provided
YoY Revenue Growth (%)Q3 2025N/A33.4%–35.5% Newly provided
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)Q3 2025N/A$69.4–$73.1 Newly provided
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)Q3 2025N/A27.0%–28.0% Newly provided
Fully Diluted SharesFY 2025~+1% ~+1% (unchanged) Maintained

FX commentary: Over half of bookings come from outside the U.S.; a 1% change in USD vs basket ≈ ~$3M bookings impact for remainder of year .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4 2024 and Q1 2025)Current Period (Q2 2025)Trend
AI costs and margin trajectoryFY25 gross margin expected ~–50 to –150 bps YoY; Max dilutive to margin but accretive to gross profit dollars; planned cost optimizations; Q1 decline ~200 bps better than expected Q2 sequential GM +130 bps to 72.4% on lower AI costs; FY25 GM YoY decline improved to ~–100 bps; unit costs (API tokens, latency/pricing) trending down Improving
Duolingo Max (Video Call)Max ~5–7% subs; dilutive margin but accretive dollars; rolling out features (3D Lily, practice tab); higher adoption among English learners; price sensitivity in low-GDP markets Max at ~8% subs; beginner difficulty; enhancements planned (bilingual conversations, engaging backgrounds); renewal data forthcoming; LTV focus Mixed to improving
Energy mechanic (replacing Hearts)N/AIncreased DAUs, time spent, and conversion; rollout >50% iOS DAUs, Android behind; cohort backlash expected, mostly impacts heavy free users; targeting completion in coming months Positive engagement
Marketing and U.S. growthViral/social-led (Dead Duo 1.7B impressions) with minimal spend; U.S. historically slower growth; minimal marketing in U.S. Temporary slowdown from social sentiment; plan to resume edgier content; incremental U.S. marketing tests to re-accelerate Normalizing
Regional dynamics (Asia/China)Broad global growth; adding courses for more base/interface pairs China fastest-growing; Luckin Coffee partnership boosted brand; Max not yet in China pending local LLM approvals Strong momentum
Payments (App Store/web checkout)Post-Epic optionality discussed; experiments anticipated Web purchase flow tests show minimal bookings loss with materially lower fees (≈2% vs 30%); accounting means limited FY25 impact Optionality building
DET/macroStrong FY24; no macro changes observed Q1; DET as other revenue DET headwind embedded (fewer international applicants) Headwind

Management Commentary

  • “We expanded gross margin by 130 basis points to 72.4% from Q1 to Q2, due to lower-than-expected AI costs and strength in our ads business.” — Shareholder letter
  • “Energy… increased DAUs, median time spent learning well, and subscriber conversion. We have rarely seen a feature move more than one of these metrics, let alone all three.” — Shareholder letter; Luis elaboration
  • “The percentage of subscribers that are Max… grew to 8% in Q2… Max grew a little less than we expected, but Super grew even more.” — Luis
  • “China… is our fastest growing market… partnership with Luckin Coffee… was a pretty big boon.” — Luis
  • “We can send people to a web purchase flow… minimally lose bookings… significantly increases our profit because… Stripe… ~2% vs Apple 30%.” — Luis
  • “We’re raising our full-year Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance to 28.75%… incremental margin of 37.4%.” — Shareholder letter
  • Music strategy: acquired NextBeat team to make Music course “as fun and joyful as the best mobile games.” — Press release

Q&A Highlights

  • DAU moderation and social sentiment: 40% YoY DAU growth at lower end of guided range due to pausing edgier social content; impact concentrated in U.S. youth cohorts; sentiment now positive; expect stability near term .
  • Max trajectory: penetration ~8% subs; beginner difficulty in Video Call addressed by bilingual flows and engagement improvements; renewal analytics forthcoming; LTV optimization drives tier surfacing .
  • Gross margin drivers: AI unit costs trending down; ad pricing contributed; web checkout impact limited near term due to revenue recognition .
  • Energy rollout: >50% of iOS DAUs; Android behind; targeting broad completion in “couple of months”; designed to monetize high-usage free cohorts .
  • Regional growth: Asia fastest, China above expectations; Max in China pending local LLM approval; small incremental marketing in U.S. planned .
  • DET headwinds: weaker international student applications pressuring DET within “Other” revenues .

Estimates Context

  • Revenue beats and raised guide: Q2 actual $252.3M vs consensus $240.8M (+4.8%)*; FY25 revenue guide raised to $1,011–$1,019M .
  • EPS beats on S&P normalized basis: Q2 Primary EPS 1.6979 vs 0.5895 consensus (+188%)*; note normalization differences vs GAAP diluted EPS $0.91 .
  • Implications: Street likely to raise FY25 revenue/EBITDA estimates on improved margin trajectory (AI costs) and higher top-line guide; monitor DET and Max mix in models .

*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Strong beat-and-raise: revenue, net income, and Adjusted EBITDA significantly up; FY25 bookings/revenue/EBITDA margin guides raised—supports positive estimate revisions .
  • Margin trajectory improving: sequential gross margin expansion and smaller FY25 YoY decline indicate AI cost tailwinds; more optimizations expected in 2H .
  • Product-led monetization: Energy pacing boosts engagement and conversion; ARPU up 6% YoY on mix to higher-priced tiers; Max enhancements (Video Call) and bilingual tests should widen appeal .
  • Geographic growth lever: Asia/China momentum (Luckin partnership); Max pending local LLM approval; selective U.S. marketing should mitigate prior deceleration .
  • Payments optionality: web checkout materially lowers payment fees; accounting limits near-term P&L impact but long-term gross margin leverage could be meaningful .
  • Watch DET and social: DET remains a macro headwind; social content strategy returning to edgier playbook—key for top-of-funnel virality .
  • Near-term trading lens: beat/raise plus improved GM outlook and Energy/Max execution are positive catalysts; risks include DET softness and Max beginner friction (being addressed) .