Q2 2024 Earnings Summary
- Devon Energy is achieving strong operational performance across multiple basins, with impressive results not just in the Delaware Basin but also significant contributions from the Eagle Ford and Williston Basin.
- The company is realizing sustainable operational improvements, including efficiency gains and better well productivity, which provide upside potential and are being factored into future guidance.
- Devon is prioritizing share repurchases due to the compelling valuation of their stock, indicating confidence in the company's future performance and commitment to shareholder returns.
- Uncertainty about the sustainability of operational improvements and well productivity gains, as these are "harder to bake into the current forecast".
- Eagle Ford production beat may not be sustained, since it resulted from a JV activity that is "nothing to extrapolate necessarily" for future quarters.
- Working interest in the Delaware Basin is expected to decline in the second half, which "definitely affects the capital" and could impact production growth.
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Capital Allocation and Share Buybacks
Q: Any change in view on buybacks vs. dividends given cheap stock?
A: Management remains biased towards share repurchases given the undervalued stock price, planning to spend around $250 million per quarter on buybacks. They are committed to maintaining and growing the fixed dividend, with the variable dividend determined by free cash flow. -
M&A Strategy and Use of Equity
Q: Would you use equity for large acquisitions instead of buybacks?
A: While their preference is to repurchase shares, management is open to using equity in acquisitions if it enhances free cash flow per share and maintains investment-grade credit. Any transaction must be accretive and strengthen the company. -
Grayson Mill Acquisition and Bakken Assets
Q: How do you view the Grayson Mill assets in the Bakken?
A: They are excited about Grayson Mill's 300,000 acres with potential for 3-mile laterals, offering significant running room. Efficiencies have improved returns, making previously Tier 2 areas more attractive. -
Inventory Depth and Delaware Basin Commitment
Q: Is inventory sufficient to support pipeline commitments like Matterhorn and Blackcomb?
A: Yes, management feels confident with their thousands of wells ahead and is signing long-term pipeline deals. Gas production is expected to grow with ongoing oil projects in the Delaware Basin. -
2025 Capital Expenditure Outlook
Q: Is $4.2 billion a reasonable placeholder for 2025 CapEx including Grayson Mill?
A: Directionally, that's not too far off, but it's too early to finalize 2025 plans. The budget will be refined after strategic discussions and integration of Grayson Mill. -
Operational Improvements and Efficiency Gains
Q: Are first-half cycle time and productivity improvements sustainable?
A: There's continued upside, but it's challenging to include productivity gains in forecasts. Operational improvements are easier to predict than productivity gains. -
Refracs and Redevelopment Opportunities
Q: What role do refracs play in your portfolio?
A: Refracs, particularly in South Texas, offer compelling returns and supplement base production. Grayson Mill has had success with refracs in the Williston Basin. -
Powder River Basin Development Timeline
Q: When might activity increase in the Powder River Basin?
A: The Powder River Basin is viewed as a future growth area, with more activity expected in the second half of the decade. Currently, they are running 1-2 rigs to de-risk the play. -
Eagle Ford Redevelopment and Efficiency
Q: Any changes in Eagle Ford drilling or efficiency gains?
A: The Eagle Ford benefited from redevelopment wells, including down-spacing and refracs, delivering strong results. Activity levels can vary due to partnerships, but it remains a valuable area. -
Decision Between Volume and CapEx
Q: Why maintain CapEx rather than reduce it despite strong volumes?
A: Management chose to stick with their plan to deliver expected performance, resulting in volumes exceeding expectations. They aim to balance capital efficiency and production growth.
Research analysts covering DEVON ENERGY CORP/DE.