Dynex Capital - Earnings Call - Q4 2020

Transcript

Speaker 0

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Dynex Capital Inc. Fourth Quarter twenty twenty Annual Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speaker presentation, there will be a question and answer session. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Ms.

Griffin. Thank you. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Good morning. This is Allison Griffin, vice president, investor relations. Thank you for joining us today. With me on the call, I have Byron Boston, chief executive officer Nirthi Poponow, President and Chief Investment Officer and Steve Menadetti, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer. The press release associated with today's call was issued and filed with SEC this morning, 02/04/2021.

You may view the press release on the homepage of the Dynex website at dynexcapital.com as well as on the SEC's website at sec.gov. Before we begin, we wish to remind you that this conference call may contain forward looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The words believe, expect, forecast, anticipate, estimate, project, plan and similar expressions identify forward looking statements that are inherently subject to risks and uncertainties, some of which cannot be predicted or quantified. The company's actual results and timing of certain events could differ considerably from those projected and or contemplated by those forward looking statements as a result of unforeseen external factors or risks. For additional information on these factors or risks, please refer to our disclosures filed with SEC, which may be found on the Dynex website under Investor Center as well as on the SEC's website.

This conference call is being broadcast live over the Internet with a streaming slide presentation, which can be found through a webcast link on the homepage of our website. The slide presentation may also be referenced under Quarterly Reports on the Investor Center page. And with that, I now have the pleasure of turning the call over to our CEO,

Speaker 2

Thank you, Allison. Good morning. As CEO of Dynex, I am very proud to report that 2020 that in 2020, we delivered a 15.2% total economic return and a 17% total shareholder return. I've been at Dynex for thirteen years and no other year has demanded as much active decision making as 2020. We stuck with our discipline and excel.

We didn't just protect shareholders' money. We made money for our shareholders in 2020. Our book value increased, and we delivered a solid dividend. This performance stands in contrast to most of the most of the mortgage REIT and, many other invest alternatives for investors seeking income. Now as you can see on slide five, Dynex has now delivered industry leading performance on a one, three, and five year basis.

And when you look at our long term chart on page 17, you can see that we have delivered solid returns through multiple market cycles during my tenure at Dynex Capital. This performance reflects my distinct philosophy of how to manage a mortgage REIT for the long term, and that same philosophy is guiding our investment approach today. We believe in risk management first followed by disciplined capital allocation. As experienced and skilled investors, we have been cautious about leveraging lower credit illiquid assets since 02/2016. When spreads are tight, this strategy looks attractive during the short term, but ultimately crumbles when liquidity dissipates in a crisis.

This is what happened last year when the prices of illiquid assets dropped dramatically as COVID nineteen intensified and creditors demanded more cash or margin in response. The takeaway here is that it was no surprise that the market reacted the way it did. We witnessed the same reaction in every major crisis in recent memory. The Dynex management team has successfully managed through these intensified risk events throughout our careers, and we were prepared. 2020 was a challenging year, but in our opinion, not a black swan event.

As we indicated at the beginning of 2020, we saw the global risk environment intensifying. So we were prepared for increased volatility. While it is impossible to predict the time of the specific events, we foresaw a higher risk profile building the global financial markets. Our experience and insight gave us the edge to actively manage our portfolio to provide our shareholders strong returns. We managed our book exactly as we told investors we would.

For years, we have emphasized liquidity and diversity in our portfolio, and this discipline served us well in 2020. Our 2020 performance was not a coincidence or good luck, but rather years of thoughtful planning around our portfolio and a team of talented people ready to actively manage the book of business in volatile times. As a CEO and coach, I could not be prouder. Now from a human capital perspective, we have a world class team with unmatched skills and experience. And 2020 was a year when the management team mattered more than anything.

Our team has weathered significant crises in the past and long term capital management to the great recession. And as we've learned again this past year, nothing surpasses experience. We have the institutional knowledge to address many market disruptions and to and to identify new opportunities that may come along. Our team is diverse, which is critical to our strategy. Risks do not stay within borders, and our team's worldwide perspective is invaluable when dealing with a global crisis.

Now COVID nineteen disrupted many work environments, but we already had the advantage of enabling our people to work remotely long before it became a necessary a necessity. Just as risk is borderless, so is talent. Our employees were accustomed to working outside the office, so they remain calm, focused during the quarantine, filter out the noise to actively manage our risk, and effectively maintain key relationships and the confidence with lenders, regulators, and investors. So over the past twelve months, we have taken a strategic view on both sides of the balance sheet with the goal of being able to grow and scale the company efficiently and in a stakeholder friendly manner. We made several moves.

We retired two of our higher cost preferred stock issues, and we replaced them with our new dynamics capital preferred seat. And during the last two weeks, we issued approximately 56,000,000 in common equity in line with our long term strategy to grow our capital base. It's very important to note the return environment is conducive for absorbing any costs associated with our capital activities. Our ultimate goal is to increase our stock liquidity and offer investors the opportunity to invest in Dynex via multiple products, including our fixed dividend c preferred and our higher yielding common stock. We've been in business for thirty years, and we are fully committed to delivering solid cash flow and attractive total returns to our shareholders well into the future.

Now as a company, our greater purpose is to support two of our main, stakeholders and constituencies, the individual savers and the communities across America. We're building this company for the long term because we believe in America, and our role in helping individual savers achieve a respectable return on their savings from financing of real estate assets. The capital that we bring to the table is critical to housing and the real estate community. As long as savers need cash income and housing and real estate finance exist in America, our business model will remain relevant and critical. Most importantly, we are deeply committed to the highest ethical standards because savers need management teams with integrity as stewards of the capital.

Our management team operates with integrity and an unwavering commitment to our values and to supporting our community. We take our fiduciary responsibility very seriously and strive to be good stewards of capital, transparent in our actions, and good corporate citizens. At Dynex, we are building a diverse and multigenerational organization with a thirty year vision that we believe will create enormous value for shareholders, stand the test of time, and prepare us for the future. I feel fantastic about 2020, and I'm very positive about 2021 and beyond. And I will now turn the call over to Steve Benedetti and Smriti Popano.

Look. Look. I'm gonna turn it over in a minute. I I forgot something. Before I turn over the call, I highlight that we have promoted Smurphy Popono to president of our company.

And this is another reason that I am excited as a CEO and a coach. All of our stakeholders should be elated about our promotion and what this means for the future of Dynex. As I said earlier, we have a thirty year vision that includes getting the right people in the right places with the right skill sets and experience. So now with that, I'm gonna turn it over to Steven Spurkey, and they're gonna give you some more details about 2020 and beyond.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Byron, and good morning, everybody. The fourth quarter continued the excellent performance for the company for 2020. For the quarter, on a per common share basis, we recorded comprehensive income of $1.23 total economic return of $1.22 or 6.7% based on the beginning book value per share of $18.25 and core net operating income of $0.45 For the year, on a per common share basis, we reported comprehensive income of $2.88 total economic return of $2.73 and core net operating income of $1.94.20 20 performance was highlighted by active portfolio and risk management and dynamic capital allocation, which enabled us to take advantage of improving asset valuations over the year and declining funding costs. Realized and unrealized investment in TBA gains, net of hedges were approximately 1.83 per common share driving a large part of the comprehensive income and total economic return for the year. For the fourth quarter, both comprehensive income and total economic return were bolstered by the strong performance of lower coupon RMBS during the quarter, particularly in TBA securities relative to associated hedges and to a lesser extent increasing value on CMBS IO securities.

Core net operating income sequentially declined from $0.61 last quarter to $0.45 this quarter principally as a result of the smaller average balance of interest earning assets and modestly declining asset yields. In addition, general and administrative expenses increased $2,100,000 during the fourth quarter from year accruals reflecting a catch up adjustment for accrued bonus expense for management's achievements of its corporate goals and objectives this year. Net interest spread and adjusted net interest spread both slightly declined by two basis points respectively quarter over quarter. Prepayments increased but were well within expected ranges. Agency RMBS prepayment speeds were 17.1 CPR for the quarter, while overall portfolio CPRs including the CMBS portfolio were approximately 15.1 CPR.

Adjusted net interest spread continues to benefit from the favorable TBA dollar roll conditions versus on balance sheet repo. As a reminder, the company utilizes the prospective method for amortizing investment premiums and as such, our results fully reflect the actual realized prepayments during the quarter and do not include cumulative catch up amortization adjustments that are based on long term assumptions and could potentially distort near term results. As it relates to book value, the driver of the $0.83 per share increase during the fourth quarter was net gains from continued spread tightening on investment assets, particularly in both lower coupon TBAs and pools. Treasury future hedge also helped to offset the impact on investment valuations from the sell off in interest rates during the quarter. We estimate that book value per common share at the January is up approximately 1% inclusive of the impact of the capital rates announced last week.

We ended the year with investment assets including TBA securities of $4,200,000,000 and leverage at 6.3x shareholders' equity similar to the end of the third quarter. Overall investment assets including TBA securities were down on an average basis by approximately 7% as compared to last quarter. This quarter we added fifteen year agency RMBS investments through TBA positions and overall the portfolio composition approximately 84% RMBS investments including TBA securities and approximately 16% invested in CMBS and CMBS IO. Let me also mention the tax character of the dividends on the company's equity capital. For 2020, dividends in both the preferred stock and common stock were 100% capital gain income.

That concludes my prepared remarks, and I'll turn the call over to Smriti for her comments on the quarter and the year.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Steve. Let me start by saying that I appreciate the confidence that the board and Byron have placed in me. I'm honored and delighted to serve other company shareholders in my new role as the president. I'm going to briefly cover our 2020 performance and then shift to our outlook for 2021. In extreme volatility events like March 2020, there can be a lot of risk, and with that comes opportunity.

With thorough planning, respecting the probability of such events, we were positioned with higher levels of liquidity. We successfully managed the portfolio rapidly in February before conditions deteriorated, positioned ourselves to weather the extraordinary market events of March, and rebalanced our investments in April to take advantage of the remarkable recovery in asset prices through year end. Our annual total economic return of 15% is only the third best in Dynex's history since 02/2008, but it is remarkable in that it was earned in an outlier year like 2020. Moving on to 2021. I'll start with a summary of our macroeconomic view.

To deal with the pandemic and its after effects, central banks have implemented highly accommodative policies designed to increase employment, increase inflation, and put the economy on a growing trajectory. A flood of unprecedented liquidity has raised the price of financial assets globally. Governments around the world are also implementing debt financed fiscal policy to close the gap on lost GDP from the pandemic and to drive future growth. This is likely going to lead to a period of massive deficits. Against this backdrop of unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus, we have the health crisis that much of the globe is still dealing with.

In the near term, we expect to see a period where there is a tug of war between the negative impacts of the pandemic and the positive impacts of the vaccine. In the medium term, the stimulus plus the impact of more vaccinations could eventually lead to a period of higher growth as more of our services given economy is able to come back online. The Fed also remains committed to a broad recovery in employment and an overshoot of inflation over 2%. In the long term, we believe the world has been permanently reshaped by the pandemic, and its impact will continue for many years to come across broad segments of our economy and many aspects of our daily lives. This will continue to be a focus for Dynex in our macroeconomic process.

Right now, our macroeconomic view leads us to prepare for a somewhat bumpy transition to a steeper yield curve as one of the more probable scenarios for 2021. We believe this is also a more favorable environment for higher returns. Turning now to our current positioning and economic return outlook. Our goal is always to manage the balance sheet to generate a total economic return to meet or exceed the dividend. Rather than think solely about core earnings versus the dividend, we are focused on capital preservation and generating returns over the long term.

Our experience shows that this focus results in higher total shareholder returns and creates long term value for shareholders. We believe the broader investment environment remains favorable with financing costs anchored well into 2022 and beyond. Give me a second here. First, financing costs are anchored well into 2222 and beyond. Agency MBS are liquid lower risk assets.

And third, we believe the market will evolve to a steeper curve environment that is ideal for earning wider net interest spreads. We expect returns to move into the 10 to 12% range and could offer we are entering this period with solid performance quarter to date. Book value since year end is up about 1% net of the equity raise. We have a strong liquidity position of upside earnings power on the balance sheet. Leverage stands slightly over six times today, and we still believe a liquid strategy is appropriate for the environment.

Let me explain why we need 23. The back end of the yield curve will face pressure from treasury issuance, possible increases in realized inflation, and expectations for inflation as the economy begins a path to recovery and gains traction in the 2021. This will likely result in higher long term treasury yields. A steeper yield curve is a very positive factor for net interest spread expansion as it offers the chance to invest at higher yields, especially as prepayments slow. In steeper yield curve environments, agency RMBS spreads also tend to widen because they now have to compete with other assets, including treasuries that offer higher yields and realized volatility in steeper yield curve environment is usually higher.

This has the potential to further add to returns. If you go back to 2012, 2015, 2018, all periods with tight MBS spreads to start the year, the curve steepened and MBS widened. In 2012, it happened even with the fed doing QE. So we're not predicting this will happen. We think there's a path for this scenario.

And if it happens, it will be one where we can invest capital at higher returns. We also see a scenario where the low volatility environment keeps spreads range bound and book value stable. Give me a moment here. At this point, we're seeing a massive revision to net supply numbers for 2021, not just because of refinancings and low mortgage rates, but also because of new household formation, a migration out of cities, home prices appreciation, all of which are causing MBS supply to balloon much higher than expected. We believe this will afford us the opportunity to also invest at better returns.

Finally, if rates decline and the curve flattens given the current tightness and high dollar prices of MBS, we feel that spreads will move wider in a lower rate environment, and we have the capital and liquidity to invest in that scenario. While they may not occur as exclusively as I've described, my point is that we believe all of these scenarios offer us the opportunity to manage and invest our capital accretively. Our core portfolio is also positioned to benefit in a steeper curve. This has been the market scenario so far this year. We currently have an RMBS portfolio allocation of twelve to four minute steepener relative to thirty.

We've increased our allocation to long term option based hedges to better insulate the portfolio from rising long term rates. You can see on Page 10 of the slide deck that the portfolio performs relatively well across several types of rate shocks, both parallel and non parallel. I want to reemphasize that we have tremendous earnings power on the balance sheet. A one times increase in leverage invested at 8% total economic return and add $0.19 per share per year in economic return. At 10%, that's 24¢.

At 12%, it's 29¢. We think we have room to take our total leverage up at least two times from today's levels at the right time and possibly higher if the return environment is better. Here's what I'd like to leave you with. The favorable investment environment is supported by low and stable financing costs well into 2022 and beyond. We expect to be able opportunistically invest our capital at more accretive levels as the market evolves over the year.

There's tremendous earnings power in the balance sheet, and we're comfortable with our ability to generate returns to cover or exceed the dividend.

Speaker 2

Index. And the shift is mainly because of the unusual, attraction and and and and performance returns of this tech sector. So we try to create something that is a little more comparable. But we could have could create a charge with ten year charge. We could have created with numerous of other different types of vehicles, and the picture looks very similar.

This displays the power of above average dividends, the power of a long term risk management strategy, and the power of successfully managing through major credit market corrections. We have proven time and again in my thirteen year tenure that our philosophy, disciplined process, and long term thinking leads to superior returns, achieving over this time. And with that, operator, I'd like to open the call for questions.

Speaker 0

As a reminder, ask a question, you need to press star one on your telephone. To withdraw your question, press the pound key. Your first question line of Bose George with KBW.

Speaker 4

Hey, everyone. This is actually Mike on for Bose. Just wanna say congrats on a really strong year. You know, know it's challenging and, you know, very great results. So my first question was you recently did a secondary offering.

I was wondering if you can just kinda talk a little bit about the decision to do this at a slight discount to book value, you know, given the backdrop that, you know, spreads are fairly tight. And then I

Speaker 5

was wondering if you could also provide

Speaker 4

a little bit of color on the, expected timeline for capital deployment.

Speaker 2

So let let me let me start, and I'll let Smurf chime in on here. Because that what I mentioned a second ago, I appreciate this question. This is a phenomenal top managing the right side of our balance sheet, and that's what I consider this capital raise to be. So let me recap the last couple of years. Beginning of 02/2019, we raised about 50 so million, then we then, issued a preferred stock.

We refinanced our

Speaker 6

our our

Speaker 2

higher cost, preferred a. We then paid off our preferred b. We come back in 02/2020. We're a well timed thought out issuance of equity. We have already absorbed the cost of issuing equity.

It's not so much about above book below book. What's the cost of issuing the equity and growing the company? Can we absorb the cost to our shareholders or still in great shape over the long term? The answer is yes. What's the benefit of it?

We're trying to give our shareholders more liquidity. We've been told multiple times that, you know, you guys are a great company, great management team, but you're below 500,000,000. We'd like to see you guys get above 500,000,000. We'll have to be able to join in join the party. And as such, the more other investors we can get involved with Dynex, and we truly believe that we should be in more portfolios.

We believe that the the net management team, have something to offer over the long term. That's our goal over the long term. And when we say we wanna grow the company in shareholder friendly manner, that means that the time is very attractive now given how the the potential power in the balance sheet for generating income to absorb any of the costs in terms of overall growing, growing the company at this time. And that's the key. It's how do you what do you do with the cost of, of growing the company?

This is a phenomenal time for being able to manage through that, and, and all of our shareholders should benefit as we, bring down our cost ratio, and other decisions that we're looking to make for the long term.

Speaker 4

Great. Terms of that's very helpful, Hunter.

Speaker 1

In in terms of when, you know, you asked a question about the timing. I think, again, you know, the the the number one the number one thing we think about is investment opportunity and not just the investment opportunity today, but what we think we can do with the capital over the long term. So as I mentioned, you know, we're thinking about not only the return environment today, but the evolution of the return environment that we see actually being very long term accretive, to our shareholders. So at at lower returns, you should expect the balance sheet to have lower lower leverage. At higher returns, we'll be increasing the size of the balance sheet.

Speaker 4

Great. That's helpful. And then another question was, so dollar roll income, you know, remains pretty strong. Mean, 2020 was obviously a great year for this. I was wondering if you could just talk a little bit about the expectations for for 2021.

You know, do you expect us to remain above, say, 2019 levels?

Speaker 1

So dollar bill income in 02/2020, especially during the last two quarters of 02/2020, I think were was extraordinarily favorable. The implied financing rates at the time were somewhere in the minus 50 basis point range. You know, I think that those types of levels for 2020 will probably not be repeated in 02/2021. All told specialness that it should be lower. Right?

So right now, we're seeing specialness being somewhere in the 20 basis point range versus the 40 to 50 basis point range for last year. So will there be special dollar rolls in 2021? Yes. Will it be as much as it was last year? No.

And I think that's that's generally the the expectations for the for the market at this point as well.

Speaker 2

Let me let me chime in and go back to one other let me let me just do one other thing, and I wanna go back to your first question because I wanna make sure everyone understands the long term view of Dynex Capital. We're growing our company. We're recently excited about showing you last year what the word nimble means and the value of nimble. But we're not trying to be the largest in this industry. We have zero desire to go out and repeat and just issue equity issue that issue has to become the largest industry.

That's not our goal. We only wanna be of certain size because we believe it offer enormous value. Size, cost ratio, all this stuff that I see a lot of people talk about didn't mean anything in February. In fact, it did mean something. There are certain certain the amount is so large.

They couldn't adjust the balance sheets. Couldn't adjust it. So I wanna make sure you understand that when we make strategic moves on the right side of our balance sheet, we're very thoughtful and very disciplined about those decisions the same way we're disciplined and thoughtful about the decisions on the left side of our balance sheet.

Speaker 4

Great. Thank you so much for taking my questions, and congrats on a good year.

Speaker 0

Your next question from line of Eric Hagen with BTIG.

Speaker 5

Hey, good morning guys. A couple of questions here. Can you first one on the portfolio and then one on the capital side. Can you talk about which hedges you think you'll be most active in incrementally adding here and what your threshold is for either rates or volatility before you look to change course from using short dated options? And then on the asset side, is there anything that would get you more constructive on specified pools?

And then on the capital side, definitely support the move to retire the pref is one way to manage leverage on stockholders. I'm I guess I'm curious now whether that modification to the capital structure changes your overall outlook on leverage for the macro portfolio, the overall portfolio, and how much leverage we can expect you guys to carry here.

Speaker 1

Hi, Eric. So I'll take the portfolio questions and and address one part of the leverage as well. So you asked your first question was about the the hedges and and what we would what we're what we're thinking about there. In general, I think we we're we're favoring treasury based hedges. Treasury based hedges are liquid.

That's something that that we think in general really offers us a lot of twenty four seven flexibility to trade. So futures, is is something that you should see be a very big part of, our hedging strategy. We've chosen to put our hedges in the back end of the yield curve given our slight lean towards a steeper curve here to protect the portfolio. So that should also be a a consistent theme. I think we've been very successful successful

Speaker 0

with using treasury options

Speaker 2

theme.

Speaker 1

I and shorter dated options as a, I would say, relatively inexpensive way to to manage this rise in in in yields up to now. In in the fourth quarter, we shifted that strategy to including longer dated options into into the next. So we're we are, you know, we we did that a little bit last last year. You know, that's something again that's on the table as, as the shorter dated options mature, or expire to go into next year. So you should see that shift happening, you know, just as we're rebalancing the portfolio here.

In terms of specified pools, into a steeper curve, you should see specified pools start to cheapen, as the expectation for prepayment slows and the relative value of specified pool starts to be diminished relative to TBAs. So once we see that type of, you know, cheapness come back into the market, I think that'll be a situation where spec starts to look interesting again. By our metrics, a lot of the spec pools are trading very full to theoretical pay ups at this point, and and I think there's some risk to in the of a higher rate scenarios to those pay ups coming down. So that's what it would take for us to get back in there. And then in terms of the leverage, you know, the the way I think, we think about it is, when we turned or sitting in, you know, in the eight to 9% range, our leverage will be somewhat in in the six, six and a half percent area.

As returns get higher, you should see the balance sheet start to grow. I think that we're prepared regardless of how this scenario evolves. Right? So for example, if if if we have a grinding spread scenario, you can you can invest in that scenario when there's imbalances between supply and demand. We expect to be able to invest capital at, you know, better returns there.

None of this precludes our ability to quickly, put the money to work should we believe the opportunity existed really, that total economically turnover the long the long term. So, there's a lot of flexibility and upside here. Byron, I don't know if you wanted to add anything to that.

Speaker 2

Yeah. It really here's a key one on that is back to being very strategic and disciplined and thoughtful about what we do. In my thirteen years, being here, our leverage has gone from zero to nine and a half to 10 and back down again in the in the middle. We're very thoughtful about how we make those decisions. Last year was unusual in the sense that we did have to move our leverage up and down a couple of times.

And I've been and I do remember when we took our leverage down right after the March period. It seems like a few of you out there were skeptical about our ability to move our leverage back up. We told you we could move it up in a nanosecond, and that's exactly what we did. We moved back up again. So these are not just, haphazard decisions.

Where do we have a philosophy? We have an opinion about how to manage this company over the long term. We're really skilled at managing leverage. Our resumes have years and years and decades of managing leverage portfolios. So I just wanna make sure you understand that, we're not haphazard about these, decisions.

Speaker 5

Alright. Thanks for the comments. And, Smriti, congrats on your promotion.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Speaker 0

Next question from line of Trevor Cranston with JPM JMP Securities.

Speaker 6

Hi. Thanks. Good morning. I may have missed this, you know, given given your comments on spec valuation being fairly full, Did you guys mention if your intention with the capital raise was to deploy primarily into TBA? And I guess if that is the case, can you maybe comment on more broadly speaking, know, how much room you have in terms of, you know, how much TBA you have in

Speaker 2

the portfolio versus pools? Thanks.

Speaker 1

Hi, Trevor. Yes. So we didn't we didn't really talk about TBAs versus specs in the comments. But in general, I would say at the at the moment, we would favor TBAs, lower coupon TBAs at the right time. Spec pools in, in both in both lower coupons that we look at at this point are are somewhat full on.

So we're we're gonna we're gonna really favor TBAs. The second issue that you brought up regarding the the room, if you will, there's a couple ways to look at it. The the number one constraint, and, Steve, you can jump in if I'm I'm saying this incorrectly, is is really the it's an income test, not an asset test. So the percentage of TBAs that you can have on your balance sheet at any given time isn't really a function of the amount relative to the total amount of assets. It's really how much income they generate.

And by our estimates, we actually have a fair amount of room, you know, with respect to how large the TBA book can get relative to the rest of the portfolio before we run afoul of any of those any of those metrics. I believe the number is north of 50%, at this at this time.

Speaker 2

Okay. That's helpful. Thank you. Sure.

Speaker 0

Your next question from line of Jason Stewart.

Speaker 7

Hey. Good morning. Thanks for taking the question. One more on the preferred, if you don't mind. Could you talk a little bit more about your decision to retirement with regard to the cost of the preferred?

Or was it more of a decision to lower that as a percentage of of capital over the long term?

Speaker 2

You know what? In terms of the cost period, as far as I'm concerned, the cost of it, we now have one preferred. The backside side of the balance sheet is, I call it simple for our shareholders. Two choices. Preferred c, common stock.

Preferred c, coupon fixed, lower yield. Common stock, higher yield. You choose which one you wanna invest in. Simplify the right side of the balance sheet. Now in terms of I always get in these debates with whether bank with bankers or analysts around what's the right amount of preferred.

There is a question here about it depends on our global environment, our global macro risk opinion. And all everything literally runs through our global macro risk opinion. Very disciplined, top down approach shop. So, right now, you know, we're in a period where our our financing costs are fixed. When you evaluate leverage investment or mortgage REITs, understand that the the start of good return environment starts with where is your

You know? Are they low, and are they stable? And so that's the position that we're in today. That'll have an impact also on on which instruments we will use on the right side of the balance sheet. So it's not a a simple a plus b equal c.

It is, definitively, an environment that a decision that are made in the same discipline process as we make others.

Speaker 7

Got it. That's that makes sense. And, Smriti, I think you said in a steeper yield curve environment, and I'm using quotes, prepays should slow. Wondering if you could elaborate on that and maybe discuss the factors that perhaps make prepay slower or don't, including primary, secondary spreads and and how you think that plays out? Thanks.

Speaker 1

Yeah. That's that's a great question. Yeah. That that's why I said should, as opposed to will. Right?

So I think at this point, you're really seeing a very a very strong move in primary secondary spreads. There's a real impetus in the mortgage origination community to to, to maintain while the sun shines. And so we don't you know, I don't believe for the for the next, you know, mortgage rates to actually meaningfully rise, I would say between three and three and a quarter percent. And at that point, mortgage rates kind of stay in that level for some period of time. That's what it's going going to take for prepayments to slow.

So we're not counting on on prepayments slowing for that that yield to to to manifest itself as other ways you can actually earn that incremental curve steepness return. The other pieces eventually, as the curve steepens and some of the low hanging fruit get taken out of the game in terms of, you know, the refinancing that are in the money, you should start to see burnout. And that burnout is gonna, you know, maybe not come next month or the month after. But in the third or fourth quarters, you're you're going to start to see burnout in the in the next year. But, know, for the very near term, I would say the next two quarters, we're we're not expecting to see even with higher rates, much slower speeds.

Will they slow potentially, but not not as much as, you know, maybe we were seeing in the past for a steeper curve environment.

Speaker 7

Got it. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Yeah. But the the I'll just add one more thing on that because I think a lot of people forget this, which is one of the more interesting things that happens the more than you get with the back end of the yield curve moving up and down. That starts to really influence whether, at those higher yields, people want to own mortgages versus other assets and change to reflect that incremental risk. And that's what causes mortgage spreads to widen when the curve steepens. So if you're thinking about where will you get your return, you're not just gonna get it only you know, you're not just counting on just the prepayment slowing down evaluation implications of that scenario as well.

Speaker 0

Again, if you would like to ask a question, please press star then number one on your telephone keypad. Again, that's star then number one to ask a question. Your next question from the line of Christopher Nolan with Ladenburg Thalmann.

Speaker 8

It's Chris from Ladenburg Thalmann. Smurf, I want to congratulate you on your promotion. Well deserved.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Speaker 8

I I think between you and Byron and Steve and everyone, Dynex is in good hands and continues to be in good hands. Looking at page 15 of your presentation, if I'm reading it correctly, it looks like you guys are implying that your target leverage ratio is increasing to seven to nine turn from seven to eight before. Is that a fair reading of that?

Speaker 1

So the the nine would only happen in in really in really attractive return environments. I that's really the key. And

Speaker 8

should we expect the leverage ratio to increase, TBAs, in the first quarter given taking into account the redemption and the new issuance and so forth? What

Speaker 1

what I would say is that we're we're here's how I would answer that question. You know, right at this moment, we believe there's a significant chance of net supply overwhelming demand, even demand from the Fed. Okay? And so we think that that is and that will offer an opportunity to deploy capital. Capital.

If if that scenario occurs, we'll be in there deploying capital. And and the question so it's it is a matter of timing. You know, one thing I think we've learned over the years is that when you when you focus on the short term, a lot of times you end up losing, return in the long term. That's not our our goal here. Our goal is to is to really put the capital in at the right level.

So we're not that know, we're we're going to be disciplined about it.

Speaker 7

No. I got it.

Speaker 2

Yeah. Let me let me just add one thing. One thing we think about when we talk about our macro top down process, we also ask ourselves, what is it that we really know here? We know we know our financing costs are low and stable for some period into the future. The next thing we know is the federal government, sovereign government, especially United States, is selling an enormous amount of debt every single week.

The other thing we know is that net mortgage supply is increasing, and mortgage originators are selling a ton of bonds every week even with the Fed's involvement. So spreads are tight, but they're not just tight because the Fed involved. The spread is tight because the Fed plus other investors. At any point in time here in 2021, you have the probability of imbalances occurring occurring either for short durations or for longer duration periods of time. If you think about it, 02/2013, everyone talks about a taper tantrum.

And, basically, what you had was a short term imbalance. You had enormous amount of the fell sellers developed. She's one of the leaders in the that were mortgage originators. Spreads blew out to really widespread. And then in 02/2014, spreads came back, yield dropped again.

So you're in a situation again. It's really important to understand this. Financing costs are fixed. There's an enormous seller of treasuries, and there's an enormous seller of mortgage backed securities. And the only thing that keeps yields in check is as long as a few additional buyers in addition to the Fed try to stand in the way of the selling.

So in my opinion, our opinion, this creates a phenomenal opportunity in 2021 for the potential for steeper curve and wider spreads. It doesn't have to be some massive enormous event that takes place. These things can happen in a very orderly fashion. But I'm telling you, I'm giving you three things that we know for a fact. We can't predict the future, but these are three things we know.

I'll reiterate, financing costs are fixed to the table. There's an enormous seller of treasury, and that seller is getting larger as more bills are passed in congress. And there's an enormous seller of mortgage backed securities that happen to be mortgage originators, and mortgage net supply is growing.

Speaker 8

Great. Byron, given that, it looks like to me, reading the presentation, that you guys are increasing your core ROE target range to 10 to 12% from eight to 10 before. Is that a fair reading of that?

Speaker 2

What we believe is that with the movement of spreads and the steepness of the curve now listen to how I just said it. My financing cost is fixed. Steeper curve means that overall yields are gonna rise versus my financing cost. That's gonna increase return. If you layer on top of that, about the widening and spreads, that increases returns.

And that's the way we look at it, and that's how strong we feel about this about this scenario in in, in 2021. So then when we give you the numbers, we'll just give you the numbers of saying, you know, this is what we think things can widen out to. Given an environment today, we deal with this low tech, you know, 10 to 12% is the comp phenomenal return. But you're probably highly probably, you may see some of the bouts of yields of returns above 12%.

Speaker 8

Okay. Given all that, what are you thinking on the dividend? Because it looks like to me that you guys are poised for increasing the dividend.

Speaker 2

So I that what I wanna emphasize, so many mortgage REIT investors choose mortgage REITs by yield. And if anything you should've learned in 2020, that's a mistake. We're we believe in generating a solid cash dividend for our shareholders and a total return and total economic return experience. So we're always balancing, well, how much yield are we paying versus how much risk are we taking with our book value. And that's why we start with our macroeconomic view because we don't wanna take so much risk in the short term, jack up our dividend to some level, and then blow our shareholders away with with book value deterioration.

And then you have this long term hit to book value. That's not our goal. That's why we use the long term charts to show you, our performance. It's not understood by many people. And we know when we tell you this story that some of the out there, you just don't get it.

You didn't get it ten years ago, didn't get it five years ago. And that's we're we're really emphasizing this is the way we think in terms of yield. We're all do you cash yield and a total economic return experience? Murphy, do you have anything you wanna add to this?

Speaker 1

I do. I mean, I think I think, Chris, one of the things I wanna make sure that we we are communicating is that we're not calling for Armageddon. Right? We're we're we're calling we're saying if if as spreads mortgage mortgage spreads widen, you should expect us to deploy capital. Right?

We're also saying that we're focused on the total economic return, which means today, we actually believe, you know, we're better off, you know, working our way into that higher return environment to deploy capital. Right? And we have actually seen opportunities even, you you know, quarter to date to deploy that capital. So I think I think we we we are very cognizant of the different scenarios that could play out here. You know, we're very disciplined about when we put that money to work.

We're not calling for for, you know, any kind of Armageddon spread widening or any any such thing. We do believe, you know, a steeper curve environment is better, more bullish for wider net interest spreads. And, you know, eventually, what that will mean is that the returns are higher, overall for for, you know, for for the entire sector. So, I think that's a very positive, thing to to leave with. And and then as you know, you know, the level of our dividend is is always gonna be commensurate with the with the economic return that we've generated.

To the extent that we're generating that return, you know, then we make that decision with the board on how much to, distribute versus we can.

Speaker 8

Great. Thank you for taking my questions, and, good show. Thanks.

Speaker 2

Thanks, guys.

Speaker 0

And I would now like to turn the call back over to mister Boston for final remarks.

Speaker 2

Thank you all for joining us today. We're just, again, we as I said earlier, we're excited about 2020, and we're excited as we look into the future. Thank you for all of our shareholders for joining us on this journey. And as I said earlier, we would like to have others take a closer look. Thank you again, and please join us for our first quarter call sometime in the month of April.

Thank you.

Speaker 0

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.