Executive Summary

Q1 2025 was operationally better but still loss-making: net sales fell 18% YoY to $111.8M, diluted EPS was $(0.15), and adjusted EBITDA improved sequentially to $(3.7)M as cost actions cut cash COGS/MT 21% YoY to ~$3,652 .
The quarter missed S&P Global consensus on revenue (actual $111.8M vs $122.3M*), while adjusted EBITDA was above consensus (actual $(3.7)M vs $(9.0)M*). Normalized net income was below consensus (actual $(39.4)M vs $(32.0)M*) (see Estimates Context) (S&P Global).
Commercial mix shift and pricing groundwork advanced: U.S. sales volume rose ~25% YoY; weighted-average realized price approximated $4,100/MT; management is pursuing a 15% price increase on uncommitted 2025 volumes and sees pricing “unsustainably low” but stabilizing sequentially .
Guidance unchanged: low double‑digit 2025 sales volume growth; mid‑single‑digit decline in full‑year cash COGS/MT (~$4,100); capex ~$40M; working capital favorable. Expected tariff impact to full‑year cash COGS/MT is <1% .
Liquidity remains adequate ($421M) with no significant maturities until Dec‑2029; however, NYSE notified EAF on April 18 of non‑compliance with the $1.00 price standard, and the company is evaluating options including a potential reverse split .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- U.S. and EU share gains: U.S. sales volume +~25% YoY; Western Europe volume +>40% YoY, supporting mix quality and sequential price improvement vs Q4 non‑LTA baseline .
- Cost execution: cash COGS/MT down ~21% YoY to ~$3,650; management remains on track for a mid‑single‑digit decline for 2025 full year .
- Tariff resilience: Expected <1% full‑year impact on cash COGS/MT given USMCA‑compliant supply from Mexico, value‑add in U.S., and U.S. needle coke content in EU‑produced electrodes .
- Quote: “We informed our customers of our intention to increase our prices by 15% on uncommitted volumes for 2025… first step necessary on a path to restoring pricing and therefore, profitability” .
What Went Wrong
- Revenue and pricing pressure: Net sales down 18% YoY on a 20% YoY decline in realized price despite higher volume; industry pricing remains “unsustainably low” .
- Negative profitability and cash burn: Gross margin still negative; adjusted EBITDA $(3.7)M; operating cash flow $(32)M) due to working capital timing and planned inventory build .
- Listing standard risk: NYSE notified EAF of sub‑$1.00 average price; management is considering all options including a reverse split .

Financial Results

Metric	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Net Sales ($M)	$130.7	$134.2	$111.8
Diluted EPS	$(0.14)	$(0.19)	$(0.15)
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	$(6.2)	$(6.9)	$(3.7)
Gross Profit Margin %	-9.24%*	-7.78%*	-1.53%*
EBITDA Margin %	-6.46%*	-13.66%*	-3.96%*
Net Income Margin %	-27.61%*	-36.86%*	-35.19%*

Note: Values with * retrieved from S&P Global.

KPIs and operating metrics

KPI	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Sales Volume (k MT)	26.4	27.2	24.7
Production Volume (k MT)	19.4	25.1	28.5
Capacity Utilization %	46%	55%	63%
Wtd‑Avg Realized Price ($/MT)	~$4,100 (non‑LTA)	~$3,900 (non‑LTA)	~$4,100 (total)
Cash COGS per MT ($/MT)	$4,197	$4,086	~$3,652

Footnote: Q3/Q4 show non‑LTA pricing per disclosures; Q1 reflects overall weighted‑average realized price.

Estimates vs. actuals (S&P Global consensus)

Metric (Q1 2025)	Consensus*	Actual	Delta
Revenue ($M)	122.3*	111.8	Miss: $(10.5)
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	(9.0)*	(3.7)	Beat: +$5.3
Net Income Normalized ($M)	(32.0)*	(39.4)	Miss: $(7.4)
Primary EPS	(1.35)*	(0.15)	NA (definitions differ)

Note: Asterisked values retrieved from S&P Global. EPS definitions/methodologies may differ; company‑reported diluted EPS is shown for actual.

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance (Q4 2024)	Current Guidance (Q1 2025)	Change
Sales Volume Growth	FY2025	Low double‑digit % y/y	Low double‑digit % y/y reiterated	Maintained
Cash COGS/MT	FY2025 (full‑year)	Mid‑single‑digit % decline; ~$4,100	On track; ~$4,100 full‑year	Maintained
Pricing Action	2025 uncommitted volume	+15% announced	Reiterated +15% plan	Maintained
Working Capital	FY2025	Favorable to cash flow	Favorable reiterated	Maintained
Capex	FY2025	~$40M	~$40M reiterated	Maintained
Tariff Impact to Cash COGS/MT	FY2025	—	<1% impact expected	New disclosure

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q3 2024 and Q4 2024)	Current Period (Q1 2025)	Trend
Pricing and ASP	Spot ~$4,150/MT; continued declines; “unsustainably low”	Weighted‑avg realized price ~$4,100/MT; ~5% sequential uplift vs Q4 non‑LTA baseline; 15% list hike on uncommitted 2025 volumes	Stabilizing, groundwork for increases
U.S. mix shift	Targeting growth in Americas and EU; >60% 2025 volume committed	U.S. volume +~25% YoY; expect to outpace Q1 growth for 2025; U.S.+EU now >50% combined	Improving
EU outlook	Recovery slower than hoped	Early signs of policy‑led demand (EU steel plan, Germany infra, defense); low inventories could magnify electrode demand	Improving medium term
Cost structure	2024 cash COGS/MT down 23%; Q4 at ~$4,100; 2025 mid‑single‑digit decline guided	Q1 cash COGS/MT ~$3,652; 2025 full‑year ~$4,100 reiterated	Improving
Tariffs/trade	Scenario planning given tariff risk	<1% COGS/MT impact expected; USMCA compliance; potential U.S. demand tailwind vs Indian imports	Manageable; possible tailwind
800mm electrodes	Launch and trials ongoing; new growth vector	Additional successful trials; expands addressable market	Positive
Liquidity/debt	Liquidity $464M; maturities pushed to 2029	Liquidity $421M; maturities still Dec‑2029; revolver availability constrained by covenant	Stable
Listing status	—	NYSE notice; considering reverse split	New risk

Management Commentary

“We increased our sales volume in the United States by nearly 25% year‑over‑year… we expect to outpace first quarter growth rate [in 2025].”
“Earlier this year, we informed our customers of our intention to increase our prices by 15% on uncommitted volumes for 2025.”
“Cash COGS per metric ton of approximately $3,650 for the first quarter of 2025… on track to achieve a mid‑single‑digit percent year‑over‑year decline for 2025.”
“We are well positioned to minimize the potential impact [of tariffs]… estimate… less than a 1% impact on our full year cash COGS per metric ton.”
“We ended the first quarter with total liquidity of $421 million… along with the absence of substantial debt maturities until December of 2029.”

Q&A Highlights

Tariffs and competitive landscape: U.S. tariffs on India (10–26%) could materially limit Indian imports; EAF expects to capitalize via proximity, service, and USMCA‑compliant supply; <1% COGS/MT impact after value‑add and U.S. needle coke offsets .
Share gains and order book: U.S. and EU together now >50% of volume/revenue; ~75%+ of 2025 volume already committed; remaining spot provides upside if U.S. production improves or competitors are displaced .
Pricing traction: Customers acknowledge need for healthier electrode pricing; company optimistic to drive increases in 2H25 though pushback persists and regions vary .
Inventory and production cadence: Q1 production > sales was planned to level‑load costs; inventory staged in St. Marys to manage trade volatility; production to align with sales over FY25 .
Industry capacity: Low utilization industry‑wide suggests possible reductions; EAF operating at ~63% and expects broader rationalization if economics don’t improve .

Estimates Context

Revenue: Missed S&P consensus (actual $111.8M vs $122.3M*). EBITDA: Beat (actual adjusted EBITDA $(3.7)M vs $(9.0)M*). Normalized net income: Miss (actual $(39.4)M vs $(32.0)M*). Primary EPS consensus mean was $(1.35)* versus company‑reported diluted EPS of $(0.15); definitions/methodology may differ (S&P “Primary EPS” vs company diluted GAAP) (S&P Global) .
Implication: Street likely reduces FY revenue/normalized earnings near term given soft pricing/ASP and Q1 miss, but cost progress and U.S. mix shift should lift 2H EBITDA trajectory if price initiatives stick (S&P Global; see company cost/pricing commentary) .

Note: Asterisked values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Near‑term setup: Fundamentals still pressured by low ASPs; Q1 revenue miss and negative margins keep the bar low, but cost execution is strong and mix is improving .
Pricing catalyst watch: 15% price initiative on uncommitted 2025 volumes, signs of sequential stabilization, and potential tariff‑driven U.S. tailwinds are key to margin inflection in 2H25 .
Cost floor developing: Cash COGS/MT trending to ~$4,100 full year with quarter-to-quarter timing noise; any realized ASP uplift should quickly leverage to EBITDA .
Volume resilience: Low double‑digit 2025 sales volume growth reiterated, with share gains in U.S./EU despite flat near‑term electrode demand; added access to 800mm market extends runway .
Liquidity runway: $421M liquidity and no major maturities until Dec‑2029 reduce balance sheet risk during the downcycle .
Risk radar: NYSE listing notice (potential reverse split), industry capacity/pricing behavior, and global trade policy remain overhangs; monitor customer acceptance of price increases and EU demand recovery pace .
Actionable: For trading, catalysts include confirmed price realization in 2H25, tariff impacts on competitors, and EU demand green shoots; for medium‑term thesis, leverage to EAF share gains, policy tailwinds, and potential needle coke upside.

Citations:

Q1 2025 press release and financials:
Q1 2025 call transcript (prepared remarks and Q&A):
Prior quarters for trend analysis: Q4 2024 PR/8‑K and call ; Q3 2024 PR/call
NYSE listing notice:

Notes and Disclaimers:

Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global. Definitions used by S&P (e.g., Primary EPS, Normalized Net Income) may differ from company GAAP presentations.

GRAFTECH INTERNATIONAL LTD (EAF)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary