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EBAY INC (EBAY)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 delivered broad-based upside: revenue $2.82B (+9% y/y) and GMV $20.1B (+10% y/y), with Non-GAAP EPS $1.36 (+14% y/y). Growth was driven by focus categories (collectibles, Motors P&A, fashion) and stronger U.S. demand, partially offset by international macro and new U.S. tariff-related frictions .
  • Results beat S&P Global consensus: revenue by ~$89M and EPS by ~$0.03; EBAY has now exceeded revenue and EPS estimates for three straight quarters (see Estimates Context) [Values retrieved from S&P Global].
  • Q4 and FY25 guidance introduced at/above the current run-rate: Q4 revenue $2.83–$2.89B and Non-GAAP EPS $1.31–$1.36; FY25 revenue $10.97–$11.03B and Non-GAAP EPS $5.42–$5.47; dividend maintained at $0.29/share .
  • Stock catalysts: continued ads strength (1P ads +23% y/y; ads at 2.6% of GMV), resilient U.S. GMV (~+13% y/y), and AI-driven product velocity (agentic platform, AI Shopping Agent) versus watch items (take-rate pressure from returns/cancellations and cross-border headwinds post de minimis change) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Focus categories outperformed: GMV growth >15% y/y, led by collectibles (TCGplayer, Goldin; Pokémon triple-digit growth for the third straight quarter) and Motors P&A (+1+ point to overall marketplace) .
    • Advertising momentum: total ads revenue $525M (2.6% of GMV); 1P ads $496M (+23% FXN), aided by multimodal models improving recommendations and adoption across >1.2B promoted listings and 4.4M sellers .
    • AI/product velocity: management highlighted early success piloting an AI Shopping Agent, in-house optimized LLMs for lower latency/cost, and a unified agentic commerce platform; planned integration into core search over coming quarters .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Take-rate headwinds: increased returns/canceled orders (counted in GMV but not revenue) related to U.S. trade policy changes reduced take rate by ~10 bps; FX also ~10 bps headwind .
    • International softness and tariffs: international GMV ~+4% FXN amid tougher macro; de minimis elimination created friction, especially for sellers importing into the U.S. (Canada/Japan), with sequential deceleration from September .
    • Margins contracted y/y: Non-GAAP operating margin 27.1% (-10 bps y/y) as EBAY reinvested in strategic initiatives (Live, shipping, vehicles) and absorbed managed shipping/TAC/FX pressures .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)$2.585 $2.730 $2.820
Y/Y Growth (%)1% 6% 9%
GMV ($USD Billions)$18.753 $19.514 $20.105
Y/Y GMV Growth (%)1% 6% 10%
GAAP Diluted EPS (Continuing Ops)$1.06 $0.79 $1.28
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS (Continuing Ops)$1.38 $1.37 $1.36
GAAP Operating Margin (%)23.8% 17.7% 20.4%
Non-GAAP Operating Margin (%)29.8% 28.4% 27.1%

Actual vs S&P Global Consensus

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)$2.585 vs $2.547*$2.730 vs $2.641*$2.820 vs $2.731*
Primary EPS ($)$1.38 vs $1.337*$1.37 vs $1.297*$1.36 vs $1.335*

*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment/Geography (GMV)

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
U.S. GMV ($USD Billions)$9.066 $9.428 $9.872
International GMV ($USD Billions)$9.687 $10.086 $10.233
Total GMV ($USD Billions)$18.753 $19.514 $20.105
% Revenue from International48% 49% 48%

Key KPIs

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Total Advertising Revenue ($M)$442 $482 $525
First-Party Ads Revenue ($M)$418 $455 $496
Ads as % of GMV2.4% 2.5% 2.6%
Active Buyers (MM, TTM)134 134 134
Operating Cash Flow ($M)$787 $(307) $934
Free Cash Flow ($M)$644 $(441) $803
Share Repurchases ($M)$625 $625 $625
Dividends Paid ($M)$134 $134 noodles $132

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent/ActualChange
Revenue ($B)Q3 2025$2.69–$2.74 $2.82 (actual) Beat
Non-GAAP EPS ($)Q3 2025$1.29–$1.34 $1.36 (actual) Beat
GMV ($B)Q3 2025$19.2–$19.6 $20.105 (actual) Beat
Revenue ($B)Q4 2025N/A$2.83–$2.89 New
Non-GAAP EPS ($)Q4 2025N/A$1.31–$1.36 New
Non-GAAP Op Margin (%)Q4 2025N/A25.8%–26.3% New
Revenue ($B)FY 2025N/A$10.97–$11.03 New
Non-GAAP EPS ($)FY 2025N/A$5.42–$5.47 New
Non-GAAP Tax RateFY 202516.5% 16.5% (maintained) Maintained
Capex (% of Revenue)FY 2025N/A4%–5% New
Free Cash Flow ($B)FY 2025N/A~$1.5 reported; ~$2.5 normalized New
Dividend/Share ($)Q4 2025$0.29 (prior cadence) $0.29 declared Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 2025, Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
AI/Technology initiativesQ1: AI listing flow; OpenAI Operator collab . Q2: AI Shopping Agent pilot; gen-AI video tool .Unified agentic commerce platform; in-house optimized LLMs; AI Shopping Agent progressing; plan to bring agentic capabilities into core search .Accelerating deployment, deeper integration into core experiences.
Supply chain, tariffs, macroLimited prior specifics; risk-factor mentions .De minimis elimination increased cross-border friction; accelerated shipping roadmap, eBay International Shipping Canada, Speedpack expansion .Emerging headwind with mitigations in-flight.
Product performance (Focus categories)Q1: PSA grading integration; collectibles activations . Q2: Live expansion UK; curated programs .Focus categories >15% y/y; collectibles largest growth driver; Motors P&A added >1