Q4 2023 Earnings Summary
- Everest Group has ample capital and is capitalizing on profitable growth opportunities, with no restrictions on capital management tools like share buybacks, highlighting strong financial flexibility.
- Management is confident in achieving their 2024-2026 financial objectives, even in the face of industry challenges like social inflation, demonstrating effective strategic planning and risk management.
- The company's disciplined underwriting and proactive reserve strengthening positions them ahead of industry trends, indicating a prudent approach to risk and potential for strong financial performance.
- Underestimated inflation in prior accident years (2016-2019) led to reserve strengthening, indicating possible under-reserving in the past and impacting profitability.
- Capital management activities like share buybacks may be limited due to the need to deploy capital to support growth and address reserve deficiencies, which could affect shareholder returns.
- Potential exposure to increased claims from reinsurance clients experiencing reserve charges, raising concerns about future claim severity and adequacy of reserves.
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Insurance Reserve Strengthening
Q: What prompted the recent reserve strengthening in Insurance?
A: The company saw a marked rise in actual losses during the 2023 calendar year for accident years 2016 to 2019, primarily in general liability due to social inflation. They believe the issue is now captured, as reporting patterns are well developed, and they feel confident in closing the books on those years. -
Reinsurance Reserve Confidence
Q: Should investors worry about similar reserve issues in Reinsurance?
A: Management is confident there won't be similar patterns in Reinsurance reserves. They addressed potential impacts back in 2020 with a $400 million reserve charge, primarily allocated to casualty years 2016 to 2019, and believe they are prudently reserved. The data indicates Reinsurance reserves for those years are in a stronger position. -
Impact of Inflation on Future Years
Q: Are loss picks adequate for accident years 2020 to 2023 amid inflation concerns?
A: Management has been proactive since 2020, increasing initial loss picks, raising inflation assumptions, and pushing rates in excess of trends. They feel confident about reserves for 2020 onwards, having taken portfolio actions and set elevated loss ratios to mitigate potential development. -
Reinsurance Loss Ratio and Property Losses
Q: Why did the Reinsurance underlying loss ratio improvement slow in Q4?
A: The improvement was masked by two large property risk losses in Q4, which added about 60 basis points to the total Reinsurance loss ratio. Also, out of prudence, they did not take credit for the 1/1/23 property rate increases in their 2023 property attritional loss ratio. -
Capital Management and Share Buybacks
Q: Will the company consider share buybacks given its capital position?
A: While they have ample capital, current underwriting opportunities are very lucrative, particularly in Reinsurance. They prioritize deploying capital to capture profitable growth, but capital management through buybacks remains a tool if they cannot meet their total shareholder return objectives. -
Reinsurance Market Outlook
Q: Is the favorable reinsurance market sustainable?
A: Management believes the exceptional conditions will persist past the January 1, 2025 renewal. Factors include a persistent gap between supply and demand, cautious underwriting psychology after elevated loss years, and underlying loss trends due to climate change. -
Property Catastrophe Risk Profile
Q: How is the company's property catastrophe risk exposure changing?
A: Despite growing the property cat book, the 1-in-100-year PML has remained relatively stable due to portfolio shaping, higher average attachment levels, and diversification. They are becoming more of a gross underwriter and plan to take on more tail risk within their risk appetite. -
Confidence in Achieving Objectives
Q: Can the company meet its objectives despite social inflation?
A: Management is confident in achieving their Investor Day targets from 2024 to 2026. They cite a well-diversified portfolio, disciplined capital allocation, and prudent loss picks that account for social inflation. -
Reinsurance Reserves and Bordereaux
Q: Has the company accounted for increases in claims activity from cedents?
A: Yes, they have stayed ahead by collaborating closely with cedents and getting signals earlier than reported bordereaux, ensuring they build sufficient prudence into loss estimates. -
Impact of Florida Reforms
Q: How attractive is the Florida market post-reform?
A: The company views the reforms positively but will wait for results to show in data before adjusting underwriting positions. They will continue to provide capacity as long as risk-adjusted returns meet their excellent expectations.