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    EASTMAN CHEMICAL (EMN)

    Q1 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Jan 10, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$95.56Last close (Apr 26, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$95.56Last close (Apr 26, 2024)
    Price Change
    $0.00(0.00%)
    • Eastman Chemical expects significant growth in Advanced Materials, with strong recovery in durables and new application wins, leading to attractive margins and earnings growth. , ,
    • The company's methanolysis plant is expected to add $150 million to $200 million of EBITDA, contributing to earnings growth in 2025 and beyond. ,
    • Management is confident in achieving 10% EPS growth going forward, with upside from volume recovery in key markets, including growth in Additives & Functional Products, Advanced Materials, stability in Fibers, and recovery in discretionary markets. , ,
    • Declining Volumes in the Fibers Segment: Management indicated that the Fibers segment is expected to see a decrease in volume and earnings in the second half of the year. Specifically, they mentioned that "volume and earnings will be a little bit less in the back half of the year," attributing this to unpredictable customer order patterns. This anticipated decline could negatively impact overall performance. ,
    • Cautious Full-Year Outlook Despite Strong Q1: Despite a strong start to the year with a volume-driven beat in the first quarter, the company did not raise its full-year guidance. Management cited "a lot of macroeconomic uncertainty" and "geopolitical uncertainty" as reasons for maintaining the current guidance. This caution may suggest concerns about future demand and potential risks to meeting earnings expectations.
    • Delays in Securing Contracts for the France Methanolysis Plant: The company acknowledged that it's taking longer than expected to negotiate customer contracts for the France methanolysis plant. Management expressed confidence in eventual agreements but admitted that these delays could impact the timing of growth plans and returns on investment for this significant project.
    1. France Project Delays
      Q: What's causing delays in the France methanolysis project?
      A: The French project is delayed due to regulatory uncertainties and the need to secure customer contracts under the current EU policies. We're also working to manage inflation-driven CapEx increases. It's taking longer to negotiate contracts, but we remain confident the project should proceed.

    2. Kingsport Methanolysis Plant
      Q: How is the Kingsport methanolysis plant ramping up?
      A: The Kingsport plant is operational, confirming that the process chemistry works. We're addressing mechanical issues from construction errors and equipment failures caused by supply chain challenges. Despite being about four weeks behind schedule, we still aim for $75 million EBITDA contribution this year.

    3. Guidance and Outlook
      Q: Why not raise full-year guidance after a strong Q1?
      A: Despite the Q1 beat, we're maintaining guidance due to ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties. Our forecast assumes an economy-neutral stance without projecting improvements or deteriorations in the second half.

    4. Long-term Earnings Potential
      Q: What's the outlook for future earnings growth?
      A: We're on track to exceed $2 billion in EBITDA, with potential to reach $2.4 billion by adding $150–$200 million from the Kingsport plant. Further upside comes from the Longview and France projects, and growth in Advanced Materials and AFP as markets recover.

    5. Customer Commitment to Recycling
      Q: Are brands committed to recycled content?
      A: Customers are highly committed, with many aiming for 100% recycled content goals. However, the availability of affordable R-PET imports has affected the pace of contract negotiations for our projects. We believe brands will focus on local recycling solutions in the end.

    6. Capital Allocation Strategy
      Q: How will you fund upcoming projects?
      A: We have the balance sheet and cash flow to fund our projects without taking on additional debt. Projects may be staggered naturally, and we're confident in maintaining a strong investment-grade balance sheet while investing in growth and returning cash to shareholders.

    7. Advanced Materials Growth
      Q: What's the growth outlook for Advanced Materials?
      A: We're seeing recovery after a challenging period, expecting to surpass 2021 levels and continue growing in 2025 and 2026. Growth drivers include the Kingsport plant ramp-up, innovations in Specialty Plastics, and ongoing wins in automotive.

    8. Longview Project Timeline and Costs
      Q: When will the Longview project start, and how do costs compare?
      A: If we reach FID in Q3, the Longview plant will come online in the second half of 2027. The methanolysis unit will be much cheaper than Kingsport due to design improvements, but overall capital costs are higher as we're building new infrastructure.

    9. Volume Recovery and Destocking
      Q: How is volume recovery progressing?
      A: Stable end markets are growing modestly, but discretionary markets like building and construction remain challenged and are below 2019 levels. We're not assuming market growth this year; any recovery in these markets represents upside for 2025 and 2026.

    10. Operating Expenses for France Project
      Q: Will importing feedstock elevate France project's OpEx?
      A: Aggregating feedstock from across Europe is appropriate for this large-scale project. Logistics costs are factored into our economics and aren't significant per kilogram. We aim to source the remaining 30% of feedstock from within France.

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