EI
Enova International, Inc. (ENVA)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 2024 delivered strong growth: Revenue $729.6M (+25% YoY), diluted EPS $2.30 (+83% YoY), adjusted EPS $2.61 (+43% YoY), net revenue margin 57% (vs. 56% LY), with originations $1.7B and combined receivables at a record ~$4.4B FV .
- Both SMB and consumer segments set quarterly revenue records (SMB $286M, +36% YoY; Consumer $434M, +19% YoY), supported by stable credit and efficient marketing (21% of revenue) .
- Management guided Q1 2025 revenue flat to slightly higher sequentially, adjusted EPS ~+5% q/q; FY 2025 originations +~15%, revenue growing slightly faster, adjusted EPS +~25%, and cost of funds down ~50 bps even without additional Fed cuts; interest expense ~10–10.25% of revenue for 2025 .
- Potential stock reaction catalysts: continued EPS growth outpacing originations due to operating leverage and buybacks (
$200M authorization remaining; $51M repurchased in Q4), plus rate-cut sensitivity ($0.10 EPS accretion per 25 bp SOFR cut, annualized) .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Record top- and bottom-line: “strongest year yet,” with FY revenue $2.66B, adjusted EBITDA $657M, adjusted EPS $9.15; Q4 margin consistent and credit solid .
- Segment records: SMB revenue $286M (+36% YoY) and Consumer revenue $434M (+19% YoY); originations +20% YoY; combined receivables FV ~$4.41B (+$767M YoY) .
- Management confidence and operating leverage: “EPS growth to outpace origination growth,” with marketing at 21% of revenue and O&T/G&A scaling (8% and 5% of revenue, respectively, in Q4) .
What Went Wrong
- Interest expense elevated: Q4 net interest $77.0M (vs. $57.2M LY), though management expects reduction in 2025 with rate cuts and funding mix improvements .
- Delinquencies and charge-offs rose with growth: Q4 >30-day delinquency $297.8M (7.5% of balance); net charge-offs 8.9% of average balance (up vs. Q2’s 7.7%), consistent with typical seasonal pattern .
- Non-GAAP adjustments persist (stock comp, amortization, prior regulatory items), requiring reconciliation to interpret core performance .
Financial Results
Quarterly Trend (Q2 → Q3 → Q4 2024)
YoY Comparison (Q4 2023 vs Q4 2024)
Segment Breakdown
KPIs
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We are pleased to report our strongest year yet… portfolio expanded to nearly $4 billion… significant momentum heading into 2025” — David Fisher, CEO .
- “Our online-only business model generates significant operating leverage and combined with our commitment to repurchasing our stock, we continue to expect EPS growth to outpace origination growth” — David Fisher, CEO .
- “Our strong financial performance… demonstrates how… diversified product offerings, scalable operating model, world-class risk management capabilities and balance sheet flexibility allow us to consistently deliver strong top and bottom line results” — Steve Cunningham, CFO .
Q&A Highlights
- Competition: No sustained competitive push; ENVA’s growth evidences strength; private credit flow more near-prime; same competitors as five years ago .
- Seasonality: Expect typical consumer seasonality (Q4 peak losses, Q1 improvement with tax refunds); Q1 marketing upper teens, net revenue margin flat sequentially .
- Mix & customers: New vs. returning stable at ~40% of originations across portfolios; SMB use cases unchanged; bypassing banks for capital .
- Cost of capital sensitivity: ~$0.10 adjusted EPS accretion per 25 bp SOFR cut over 12 months; 2025 assumes one Fed cut .
- Buybacks & authorization: ~$200M repurchase authorization remaining; typically limited to ~75% of GAAP net income per quarter under covenants .
- Regulatory outlook: CFPB 1071 SB disclosure and small-dollar payment rules expected to have minimal operational impact .
Estimates Context
- S&P Global consensus estimates (EPS, revenue) were unavailable due to system limits at query time; therefore, comparisons vs. Wall Street consensus are not provided. We default to S&P Global for estimates and will update when accessible.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Operating leverage and disciplined unit economics are driving adjusted EPS growth faster than originations, supported by efficient marketing and scaling fixed costs .
- Rate-cut tailwinds are material given ~50% floating-rate liabilities; each 25 bp SOFR cut adds ~$0.10 adjusted EPS over 12 months; FY 2025 interest expense expected ~10–10.25% of revenue .
- Both SMB and consumer segments exhibit healthy demand and credit, with SMB continuing to bypass banks—sustaining double-digit originations growth and record revenues .
- Credit metrics are seasonally higher in Q4 but stable YoY; delinquency rate improved YoY to 7.5% of balance and fair value premiums remained steady, signaling stable expected cash flows .
- Capital returns are an ongoing catalyst: ~$200M remaining authorization with ongoing buybacks, supported by $1.3B liquidity and strong funding access .
- Near-term setup: Q1 2025 revenue flat to slightly higher sequentially and adjusted EPS ~+5% q/q; medium term: FY 2025 originations +~15%, adjusted EPS +~25% amid falling cost of funds .
- Monitor macro and regulatory developments (tariffs, CFPB rules), though management sees limited direct impact given diversification and current practices .