EP
ENTERPRISE PRODUCTS PARTNERS L.P. (EPD)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q2 2025 was resilient operationally with record volumes in gas processing, gas pipeline throughput, and crude oil pipelines; non-GAAP DCF rose 7% to $1.94B and covered the raised $0.545 distribution 1.6x, retaining $748M for growth .
- Headwinds: sharp commodity price declines and margin compression in LPG export fees and octane enhancement reduced reported revenues to $11.36B and pressured petchem margins; EPS per unit was $0.66 vs $0.64 YoY .
- Consensus comparison: Revenue missed Wall Street ($14.18B est vs $11.36B actual) while Primary EPS was roughly in line and EBITDA slightly below; underlying fee-based assets and natural gas marketing offset crude marketing weakness (see Estimates Context) (*Values retrieved from S&P Global).
- Execution catalyst: ~$6B of organic projects entering service in 2H25 (new Permian plants, Frac 14, BYO/Bahia, and Neches River Terminal Phase 1) with quick ramps expected, supporting volume-driven cash flow growth into 2026 .
- Regulatory watch: BIS ethane export licensing to China caused short-term dislocations and elevated customer risk perceptions; management navigated near-term impacts but flagged strategic export risks as an ongoing theme .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Record throughput across the system: record natural gas processing inlet (7.8 Bcf/d), natural gas pipelines (20.4 TBtus/d), crude oil pipelines (2.6 MBD), and refined/petchem pipelines (1.0 MBD) underpinning stable cash generation .
- Fee-based strength and gas marketing offset: “The performance of our fee-based assets and natural gas marketing more than offset lower earnings in our crude oil marketing businesses…” (Jim Teague) .
- Capex cadence and project ramp: Two new 300 MMcf/d Permian plants commissioned with rapid ramp; NRT Phase 1 began service mid-July enabling ethane loading at 120 MBPD; Frac 14 and Bahia pipeline slated for 4Q . Management expects “Frac 14 will come up completely full,” with Bahia ~50–60% in first 12 months (ramp detail from Q&A) .
What Went Wrong
- LPG export fee compression: Gross margin at EHT’s LPG-related activities fell 46% ($37M) on recontracting to current market and ~60% drop in spot rates, despite higher export volumes; spot fee declines were called out on the call .
- Octane enhancement margins normalized: Segment gross margin fell $49M on lower sales margins; management cited new supply and China-driven pressure on MTBE markets as structural headwinds .
- Crude oil marketing softness: Net $14M decline in crude assets/marketing on lower sales volumes; crude marine volumes dropped vs prior year (811 MBPD vs 977 MBPD) .
Financial Results
Consolidated P&L, Cash Flow and Key Non-GAAP
Notes:
- Non-GAAP definitions and reconciliations provided in press release exhibits .
- DCF coverage of Q2 distribution = 1.6x; $748M retained .
Segment Gross Operating Margin
Operating KPIs
Margin Metrics (S&P Global)
Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “In a seasonally weaker quarter challenged with macroeconomic, geopolitical, and commodity price headwinds, Enterprise reported solid earnings and cash flow… setting five new operating records” — Jim Teague .
- “The performance of our fee-based assets and natural gas marketing more than offset lower earnings in our crude oil marketing businesses…” — Jim Teague .
- “We are excited for the opportunities the second half of 2025 is poised to present with approximately $6 billion of our organic growth capital projects slated to enter commercial service.” — Jim Teague .
- “LPG export volumes rose… yet our gross operating margin declined by $37 million… driven by recontracting and a 60% drop in spot rates.” — Jim Teague (call) .
- “Acadian recontracting rates… two to three times historical… we will reap benefits.” — Natalie Gayden .
Q&A Highlights
- Project ramps: Frac 14 “completely full,” Bahia ~50–60% in first year; NRT ramp tied to VLEC orders; Permian plants ramp quickly (implying strong early contribution in 4Q/1Q) .
- LPG exports: 85–90% contracted through decade; margin headwinds mostly recognized; volume growth to offset lower fees .
- Permian outlook: Basin getting “gassier,” but producers remain profitable; management expects E&Ps to hold guidance; supportive for EPD’s gas/NGL value chain .
- Ethane export licensing (BIS): Near-term impact managed; raised concerns about U.S. brand reliability; potential customer preference shifts noted .
- Capital allocation: Opportunistic buybacks in 2025; larger opportunity in 2026 as discretionary FCF steps up; ~$2.2B of 2026 capex committed .
Estimates Context
Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.
Implications:
- Revenue: Q2 2025 was a significant miss versus consensus (driven by lower commodity prices and recontracting/spot fee compression in LPG and weaker crude marketing) .
- EPS: Primary EPS roughly in line/slight miss versus consensus; GAAP EPS per unit reported at $0.66 (non-comparable to SPGI primary EPS) .
- EBITDA: Slight miss versus consensus, cushioned by MTM gains (+$52M) and strong fee-based pipelines; natural gas marketing MTM uplift (+$55M) aided segment results .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Volume-driven resilience: Record throughput in gas/NGL/crude pipelines and processing supports stable DCF even in weak pricing; watch rapid ramp of 2H25 projects for 4Q/1Q run-rate uplift .
- Margin mix shift: Expect continued pressure in LPG export fees and normalized octane margins; mix should tilt further to fee-based pipelines, fractionation, and gas marketing .
- Regulatory risk: BIS ethane export licensing adds tail risk to ethane flows to China; EPD’s diversified customer base mitigates near-term impact, but could affect long-term contracting terms and pricing .
- Cash return cadence: With capex stepping down in 2026 and major projects online, discretionary FCF should increase, enabling larger buybacks and sustained distribution growth .
- Permian gas leverage: Basin getting gassier; EPD’s integrated NGL value chain and gas gathering/intrastate systems are well positioned; Acadian recontracting at 2–3x historical rates is an upside rate tailwind .
- Near-term trading lens: Headline revenue miss may weigh, but focus on DCF coverage, retained cash, and visible project ramp; monitor 4Q commissioning milestones (Frac 14, BYO/Bahia) for volume catalysts .
- Estimate revisions: Expect sell-side to lower revenue/petchem margin assumptions, modestly adjust EBITDA; fee-based volumes and MTM contributions provide partial offset (*Values retrieved from S&P Global) .
Appendix: Commodity Price Backdrop
- Weighted-average indicative NGL prices at Mont Belvieu dipped to $0.58/gal in Q2 2025 vs $0.59/gal YoY; WTI averaged $63.87 in Q2 2025 vs $80.57 in Q2 2024, framing lower marketing revenues .