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EB

EQUITY BANCSHARES INC (EQBK)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 delivered margin expansion and solid earnings: diluted EPS $0.85, net interest margin 4.27% (4.08% core), aided by $2.3M nonaccrual reversals and day-count dynamics; non-interest income benefited from a $1.7M BOLI death benefit .
  • Versus Wall Street: EPS modestly beat consensus ($0.85 vs $0.83*) and revenue beat ($58.1M* vs $56.7M*), driven by lower deposit costs and one-time items; provision rose with loan growth and macro uncertainty (tariffs) .
  • Guidance: Management raised Q2 NIM guidance to 4.05–4.10% from Q1’s 3.95–4.05%, and maintained full-year ranges pending the NBC Oklahoma merger close and integration .
  • Strategic catalyst: Announced definitive agreement to merge with NBC Oklahoma (≈$909M assets), expanding Oklahoma footprint; expected EPS accretion (~$0.18 back-half 2025; ~$0.50 in 2026, per management) and sub-3-year TBVPS earn-back .
  • Balance sheet growth continues: loans +$131M QoQ (15.2% annualized), TCE/TA 10.13%, TBVPS +$1.00 QoQ; deposit mix shifting with seasonal municipal flows; loan-to-deposit ratio 82.4% .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Margin and earnings resilience: NIM rose to 4.27% (core 4.08%) as funding costs fell 8 bps vs 4 bps decline in asset yields; nonaccrual reversals added ~19–20 bps .
    “We achieved strong earnings, margin expansion and built up our reserves to strengthen our balance sheet for whatever comes next.” – CEO Brad Elliott .
  • Strong loan production and growth: loans +$130.8M QoQ; organic originations $197M (+64% QoQ), plus $57M of guaranteed loans purchased; yields on originations held at 7.41% despite rate cuts .
  • Capital and book value improvement: TCE/TA 10.13%; TBVPS $31.07 (+3.3% QoQ); CET1 14.70% at HoldCo; asset quality improved with NPAs down to 0.51% of assets and nonaccruals down to $24.2M .

What Went Wrong

  • Higher provision for credit losses: provision $2.7M vs $0.1M in Q4, reflecting loan growth and added macro uncertainty (trade policy/tariffs) .
  • Seasonal deposit outflows (ex-brokered): core deposits -$109.4M due to municipal/commercial seasonality; total deposits held at $4.4B with brokered balances, indicating reliance on wholesale funding mix near-term .
  • OpEx uptick: non-interest expense rose to $39.1M (from $37.8M), driven by payroll timing and higher incentive accruals; efficiency ratio elevated vs Q3’s unusually low level .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Diluted EPS ($)$1.28 $1.04 $0.85
Net Interest Income ($MM)$46.031 $49.473 $50.292
Total Non-Interest Income ($MM)$9.317 $8.816 $10.330
Net Interest Margin (%)3.87% 4.17% 4.27%
Provision for Credit Losses ($MM)$1.183 $0.098 $2.722
Efficiency Ratio (%)52.59% 63.02% 62.43%
ROAA (%)1.52% 1.31% 1.17%
Loans HFI by Type ($MM)Q3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Commercial Real Estate$1,916.9 $1,830.5 $1,863.2
Commercial & Industrial$670.7 $658.9 $762.9
Residential Real Estate$567.1 $566.8 $564.0
Agricultural Real Estate$259.6 $267.2 $260.7
Agricultural$89.5 $87.3 $94.2
Consumer$97.2 $90.1 $86.7
Total Loans HFI$3,600.9 $3,500.8 $3,631.6
KPIsQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Total Assets ($B)$5.355 $5.332 $5.446
Total Deposits ($B)$4.363 $4.375 $4.405
Loans HFI ($B)$3.601 $3.501 $3.632
Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (%)82.5% 80.0% 82.4%
TCE/TA (%)8.21% 9.95% 10.13%
Book Value per Share ($)$32.97 $34.04 $35.23
Tangible Book Value per Share ($)$28.38 $30.07 $31.07
NPAs / Assets (%)0.60% 0.65% 0.51%
Nonaccrual Loans ($MM)$31.2 $27.1 $24.2
ACL / Loans (%)1.21% 1.24% 1.26%

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Net Interest Margin (%)Q2 20253.95–4.05% (Q1 2025 guide) 4.05–4.10% Raised
Avg. Earning Assets ($B)Q2 2025N/A$4.80–$4.90 Initiated
Provision for Credit Losses ($MM)Q2 2025N/A$0.5–$1.5 Initiated
Non-Interest Income ($MM)Q2 2025N/A$8–$9 Initiated
Core Non-Interest Expense ($MM)Q2 2025N/A$36–$39 Initiated
Effective Tax Rate (%)Q2 2025N/A20–22 Initiated
Net Interest Margin (%)FY 2025N/A (retained prior ranges)3.95–4.05 Maintained
Avg. Earning Assets ($B)FY 2025N/A$4.85–$5.05 Maintained
Provision for Credit Losses ($MM)FY 2025N/A$2–$6 Maintained
Non-Interest Income ($MM)FY 2025N/A$32–$36 Maintained
Core Non-Interest Expense ($MM)FY 2025N/A$147–$153 Maintained
Effective Tax Rate (%)FY 2025N/A20–22 Maintained

Note: Management stated full-year estimates were retained and would be updated post-NBC integration .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 & Q4)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Margin trajectory & rate sensitivityLiability sensitivity drove Q4 NIM to 4.17%; normalized core NIM ~4.06%; positioned neutral to moderate cuts .Q1 NIM 4.27% (core ~4.08%); Q2 guide 4.05–4.10%; defend margin with lagged repricing; modest upside if cuts are moderate .Improving/Stable
Deposit costs & mixDeposit costs fell with Fed cuts; municipal inflows seasonally lifted Q4; strategy to reprice high-cost deposits .Seasonality drove core outflows; expect inflows later in year; more rational competition, mirror Fed moves .Seasonal/Stable
Loan growth & pipelineQ3 originations strong; pipeline robust into Q4 and 2025 .Loans +$131M QoQ; organic originations $197M; C&I growth a highlight; community markets opportunity developing .Improving
Asset quality & QSR exposureGranular QSR risk <3% of loans; rising classification tied to one operator; SBA-related nonaccrual noted .NPAs and nonaccruals declined; delinquency uptick at quarter-end was administrative and resolved; classification ~10.24% of capital .Mixed but improving
Tariffs/macro uncertaintyNeutral positioning; ability to neutralize moderate rate moves .Added reserve for tariff risk; customers have pass-through clauses; watch macro impact .Cautious

Management Commentary

  • “We started the year with a strong balance sheet, motivated bankers and a solid capital stack to execute our dual strategy of organic growth and strategic M&A.” – CEO Brad Elliott .
  • “Cost of funds declined 8 bps while coupon yields fell 4 bps; nonaccrual benefits added ~19 bps to NIM.” – CFO Chris Navratil .
  • “Organic originations totaled $197M, up 64% QoQ, with 7.41% yields despite a downward rate environment.” – Bank CEO Rick Sems .
  • “We added reserve for economic uncertainty related to tariffs, though we’re not seeing slowdown in our markets.” – CEO Brad Elliott .
  • “Year 2 accretion from NBC is about $0.50; we’ll quantify back-half 2025 later.” – CFO Chris Navratil .

Q&A Highlights

  • Tariffs/macro: Customers often have contractual pass-throughs; bank added reserve proactively; no current slowdown observed .
  • Margin outlook: Core NIM ~4.08% in Q1; management expects to maintain in Q2; defend margin with lagged repricing; modest upside possible with rational cuts .
  • Loan purchases: $57M guaranteed loan purchase was a one-time opportunity; not a recurring strategy .
  • Deposit strategy: More rational competition emerging; mirror Fed moves; selective exceptions to protect relationships .
  • NBC accretion: Expected ~$0.18 EPS in back-half 2025 and ~$0.50 in 2026; details to follow .

Estimates Context

MetricQ1 2025 ConsensusQ1 2025 ActualSurprise
EPS ($)$0.83*$0.85 +$0.02
Revenue ($MM)$56.68*$58.05*+$1.37*

Values retrieved from S&P Global. Note: “Revenue” for banks may differ by provider definitions; company-reported components were NII $50.3M and total non-interest income $10.3M in Q1 .

Why the beat:

  • Lower funding costs vs asset yields (-8 bps vs -4 bps) and ~$2.3M nonaccrual reversals lifted NIM and NII .
  • $1.7M BOLI death benefit boosted non-interest income; core fees were seasonally soft .
  • Provision increased on loan growth and macro uncertainty but remained manageable; asset quality metrics improved .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • NIM durability: With Q2 NIM guided to 4.05–4.10%, EQBK appears positioned to defend margins despite further rate cuts; core NIM ~4.08% provides baseline .
  • Growth engine is reaccelerating: Strong C&I-led loan growth and early traction in treasury/fee lines should support NII and diversify revenues through 2025 .
  • Credit normalizing but contained: ACL/loans at 1.26% with improving NPAs/nonaccrual balances; classification uptick tied to known credits; reserve build prudent for macro risks .
  • Capital optionality: TCE/TA 10.13% and CET1 14.70% enable organic growth and strategic M&A; dividends maintained at $0.15 .
  • NBC Oklahoma merger is a near-term catalyst: footprint expansion and expected accretion (back-half 2025/2026) plus cross-sell via Q2 treasury platform .
  • Watch seasonality and funding mix: Municipal deposit seasonality and brokered balances influenced total deposits; expect inflows later in the year; funding optimization remains a lever .
  • Near-term trading: One-time items aided Q1; core run-rate suggests modest upside if rate path remains rational; estimate revisions likely to reflect raised Q2 NIM, higher loan growth, and NBC accretion later in 2025 .