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EQT Corp (EQT)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 delivered a clean beat: Adjusted EPS was $0.45 vs S&P Global consensus $0.41; revenue was $1.80B vs $1.74B consensus, and adjusted EBITDA of ~$1.16B; GAAP diluted EPS was $1.30 on net income of $784M * *.
  • Production of 568 Bcfe hit the high end of guidance, average realized price was $2.81/Mcfe, and per-unit operating costs fell to $1.08/Mcfe; free cash flow attributable to EQT was $240M despite a $134M litigation settlement expense .
  • Guidance raised: FY 2025 total sales volume to 2,300–2,400 Bcfe (+100 Bcfe), full-year operating costs cut by $0.06/Mcfe, capex unchanged; Q3 2025 volume guided to 590–640 Bcfe .
  • Strategic catalysts: multi-year in-basin power/data center supply deals, MVP Boost open season (500 MMcf/d), Southgate advancing, and Olympus integration; management sees ~$250M recurring FCF uplift by 2029 from midstream growth .
  • Balance sheet strength improved with net debt down to $7.8B; dividend declared at $0.1575 per share for Q3 payment, reinforcing capital return commitment .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Production and efficiency: Sales volume reached 568 Bcfe (high end) and capex came in $554M, 15% below mid-point, aided by record completion efficiency and lower well costs .
  • Cost discipline: Total per-unit operating costs fell to $1.08/Mcfe (below low-end of guidance); realized differential in-line despite wider local basis via tactical curtailments .
  • Strategic progress: Signed exclusive midstream for WV power plant; progressing MVP Boost (500 MMcf/d) and Southgate (550 MMcf/d); closed Olympus and began rapid integration .

Quote: “Second quarter results highlight a continuation of operational excellence and robust financial performance… another record-setting quarter for completion efficiency and lower well costs” — Toby Rice .

What Went Wrong

  • Litigation expense impacted reported cash flow: $133.7M net expense reduced adjusted operating cash flow and free cash flow metrics in Q2 .
  • Transmission/O&M cost uptick YoY: Transmission increased on MVP capacity charges and additional Transco capacity; O&M rose with Equitrans asset operations .
  • Basis headwinds: Local basis was “much wider-than-expected,” requiring tactical curtailments to manage realizations .

Financial Results

Reported results vs prior periods (GAAP and company non-GAAP)

MetricQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Total operating revenues ($USD Billions)$0.95 $1.74 $2.56
Net income attributable to EQT ($USD Millions)$9.5 $242.1 $784.1
Diluted EPS (GAAP) ($USD)$0.02 $0.40 $1.30
Adjusted EPS ($USD)$(0.08) $1.18 $0.45
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$470.3 $1,780.7 $1,158.5
Average realized price ($/Mcfe)$2.33 $3.77 $2.81
Total sales volume (Bcfe)508 571 568

Results vs S&P Global consensus

MetricQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
EPS (Primary) – Consensus$(0.181)$1.012$0.409
EPS (Primary) – Actual$(0.08) $1.18 $0.45
Revenue – Consensus ($USD Billions)$1.07$2.09$1.74
Revenue – Actual ($USD Billions)$0.85*$2.37*$1.80*
EBITDA – Consensus ($USD Billions)$0.383$1.550$1.065
EBITDA – Actual ($USD Billions)$0.186*$1.120*$1.764*

Values retrieved from S&P Global. Actuals for EPS (Primary) are aligned to company’s adjusted EPS for comparability . Revenue/EBITDA “actual” shown per S&P Global basis, which differs from GAAP “Total operating revenues” reported by EQT.*

Margins (S&P Global basis)

MetricQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Net Income Margin %1.12%*10.21%*43.61%*
EBIT Margin %-32.87%*21.04%*63.42%*
EBITDA Margin %21.93%*47.21%*98.09%*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Segment/Revenue breakdown (selected items)

Operating revenue componentQ2 2024 ($USD Millions)Q2 2025 ($USD Millions)
Sales of natural gas, NGLs and oil$889.5 $1,700.5
Pipeline and other$1.7 $137.3

KPIs

KPIQ2 2024Q2 2025
Average realized price ($/Mcfe)$2.33 $2.81
Operating costs ($/Mcfe)$1.40 $1.08
Net cash from operating activities ($USD Millions)$322 $1,242
Free cash flow attributable to EQT ($USD Millions)$(171) $240
Net debt ($USD Billions)$—$7.76
Hedged volume Q3 2025 (MMDth/d)—3.5

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Total sales volume (Bcfe)FY 20252,200–2,300 2,300–2,400 Raised
Operating costs ($/Mcfe)FY 2025$1.09–$1.23 $1.03–$1.17 Lowered
Total capital expenditures ($USD Millions)FY 2025$2,300–$2,450 $2,300–$2,450 Maintained
Q3 total sales volume (Bcfe)Q3 2025—590–640 New
Third-party midstream revenue ($USD Millions)FY 2025$550–$650 $550–$650 Maintained
Distributions from MVP & LMM ($USD Millions)FY 2025$210–$235 $230–$255 Raised
Distributions to Midstream JV NCI ($USD Millions)FY 2025$290–$330 $350–$380 Raised
Capital contributions to equity method investments ($USD Millions)FY 2025$50–$60 $100–$110 Raised
Maintenance capex ($USD Millions)FY 2025$1,950–$2,070 $2,010–$2,130 Raised
Strategic growth capex ($USD Millions)FY 2025$350–$380 $290–$320 Lowered
Dividend per share ($USD)Q3 pay date—$0.1575 (payable Sep 2; record Aug 6) Announced

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ4 2024 (prior-two)Q1 2025 (prior-one)Q2 2025 (current)Trend
AI/data center demandPositioning for in-basin demand growth; IG credit & integrated platform highlighted Early evidence of momentum and talks with hyperscalers/utilities Multiple long-term power/data center projects progressing; Shippingport (800 MMcf/d), Homer City (665 MMcf/d) Accelerating
Basis/macroTightening Appalachia basis; MVP at max flows in winter Structurally bullish view into 2026–27; cautious near-term oversupply Basis widened locally in Q2; tactical curtailments optimized value Mixed near-term; bullish medium-term
Compression/efficiencyFaster-than-expected compression benefits; capex below plan Record efficiency; maintenance capex trending down Record completion efficiency; lower well costs continued Improving
MVP projectsMVP seasonal flows pre-expansion Southgate routing optimized MVP Boost open season (500 MMcf/d) and Southgate advancing Advancing
Capital allocationDeleveraging to ~$7B exit-2025; opportunistic buybacks later Reinforce deleveraging, low hedging bias Net debt $7.8B; dividend declared; reiterate deleveraging Deleveraging on track
Regulatory/legal——Securities class action settlement expense; ~$134M Resolved legacy risk

Management Commentary

  • “EQT has generated approximately $3.7B of cumulative net cash provided by operating activities and nearly $2B of cumulative free cash flow attributable to EQT over the past three quarters… underscoring the differentiated earnings power of our low-cost, integrated platform.” — Toby Rice .
  • “We expect these projects to add approximately $250M of recurring free cash flow by 2029… initially reallocate volumes, followed by steady mid-single-digit multi-year growth.” — Jeremy Knop .
  • “We are seeing tremendous momentum for in-basin natural gas power and data center demand and EQT is uniquely positioned to capitalize.” — Toby Rice .
  • “We tactically added modest winter hedges (10% costless collars Dec–Feb; floors just above $4, ceilings around $7).” — Jeremy Knop .

Q&A Highlights

  • Capex cadence to 2029 FCF uplift: Growth capex (~$1B over several years) is back-weighted to 2027–28; deleveraging continues, enabling future redeployment and buybacks .
  • Growth vs reallocation: Near-term reallocate ~2 Bcf/d to new demand; disciplined growth later; a 1 Bcf/d growth case implies ~$720M FCF at $4 Hub and ~$15/share value uplift (illustrative) .
  • Pricing/indexation: Preference for local indices (M2/EGTS) due to expected basis tightening and hedging simplicity for customers; Henry Hub linkage possible but less flexible .
  • Taxes: Recent tax bill defers ~$500M cash taxes over next couple of years; bonus depreciation aids midstream growth tax efficiency .
  • Hedging: Bias toward low/no hedging, opportunistic collars; focus on maturities management rather than price hedging given structurally bullish outlook .

Estimates Context

  • EPS: Adjusted EPS of $0.45 vs consensus $0.41 — a beat driven by production outperformance, lower LOE/SG&A, and tactical curtailments supporting realizations *.
  • Revenue: S&P Global revenue $1.80B vs $1.74B consensus — beat, while GAAP Total operating revenues were $2.56B, reflecting derivative and pipeline/other effects *.
  • EBITDA: S&P Global EBITDA $1.76B vs $1.07B consensus — beat, aided by reported gains and distributions from equity method investments *.

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term beats anchored by execution: High-end volumes, lower per-unit costs, and tactical curtailments drove EPS/revenue outperformance .
  • FY 2025 outlook improved: Higher volume, lower costs, unchanged capex — a positive risk/reward skew into H2/Q3 volumes and cost trajectory .
  • In-basin demand thesis gaining traction: Data center and power deals plus MVP expansions create durable, fee-based FCF streams (~$250M by 2029) and set the stage for disciplined upstream growth .
  • Balance sheet optionality: Net debt down to $7.8B with path to ≤$7.5B by YE; supports future buybacks/dividend growth as projects ramp .
  • Structural basis tailwinds: Management expects Appalachia basis tightening through decade; local index-linked contracts monetize this .
  • Watch Q3 execution: Volume range 590–640 Bcfe; per-unit costs guided $1.01–$1.15 — monitoring price/basis and Olympus integration pace .
  • Trading lens: Guidance raise and AI/data center narrative are catalysts; any confirmations (FID, definitive agreements) on MVP Boost/Southgate/power projects likely supportive of multiple expansion .

Note: Results vs consensus and margin tables include values retrieved from S&P Global.