Executive Summary

EQT’s Q4 2024 delivered high-end volumes (605 Bcfe) with tighter differentials and operating costs at the low end of guidance, driving $588M of free cash flow despite a $2.81 Henry Hub quarter; adjusted EBITDA rose to ~$1.41B .
2025 outlook reset higher: production guidance 2,175–2,275 Bcfe (midpoint +125 Bcfe vs prior view) on compression benefits and well productivity; maintenance capex set at $1.95–$2.12B, growth capex $350–$380M .
Balance sheet de-risked via ~~$4.7B proceeds from non-op asset sale and midstream JV; exited Q4 with $9.3B total debt and $9.1B net debt; working capital usage (~~$475M) expected to reverse in 2025 .
Equitrans integration ~90% complete; ~85% of base synergies and ~35% of upside synergies de-risked; earlier-than-expected compression investments underpin guidance lift and capex efficiency .
Stock reaction catalysts: raised 2025 production, strong FCF durability at low prices, deleveraging ahead of plan, and visible synergy/operational momentum; watch Appalachia basis/MVP dynamics and data-center power demand linkage discussed on the call .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- High-end production with value-accretive curtailments: 605 Bcfe with differential $0.13/Mcf tighter than midpoint of guidance; tactical curtailments optimized realizations without hurting operations .
- Operating discipline: total per unit operating costs of $1.07/Mcfe at the low end of guidance; capex $583M, 7% below the low end of guidance .
- Free cash flow and integration: $756M CFO, $588M FCF; Equitrans integration 90% complete with ~85% of base synergies de-risked; CEO: “operations are firing on all cylinders” .
What Went Wrong
- GAAP EPS declined YoY despite stronger operations (Q4 diluted EPS $0.69 vs $1.13 YoY) driven in part by derivative mark-to-market and accounting noise inherent to gas E&Ps .
- Per-unit LOE/SG&A rose YoY given Equitrans integration footprint and higher personnel/legal costs; transmission per Mcfe rose due to MVP long-term capacity obligations .
- Net debt elevated vs YE23 ($9.1B vs $5.7B) post-transactions; management expects WC reversal and FCF to reduce net debt to ~$7B by YE25 at recent strip .

Financial Results

Metric	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Total operating revenues ($MM)	$952.5	$1,283.8	$1,624.7
Diluted EPS (GAAP)	$0.02	$(0.54)	$0.69
Net income (GAAP) ($MM)	$9.2	$(297.4)	$427.2
Adjusted EBITDA ($MM)	$464	$832	$1,412
Net cash from operating activities ($MM)	$322	$593	$756
Free cash flow ($MM)	$(171)	$(121)	$588
Sales volume (Bcfe)	508	581	605
Avg realized price ($/Mcfe)	$2.33	$2.38	$3.01
Per unit operating costs ($/Mcfe)	$1.40	$1.14	$1.07
Capital expenditures ($MM)	$576	$558	$583

Operating revenue breakdown (illustrative for trend):

Operating Revenue Components ($MM)	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Sales of natural gas, NGL & oil	$889.5	$1,099.8	$1,641.2
(Loss)/Gain on derivatives	$61.3	$66.8	$(183.5)
Pipeline, net marketing services & other	$1.7	$117.2	$167.1
Total operating revenues	$952.5	$1,283.8	$1,624.7

KPIs and unit economics:

KPI	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Total sales volume (Bcfe)	508	581	605
Avg realized price ($/Mcfe)	$2.33	$2.38	$3.01
Operating costs ($/Mcfe)	$1.40	$1.14	$1.07
Free cash flow ($MM)	$(171)	$(121)	$588
Adjusted EPS ($)	$(0.08)	$0.12	$0.69

Notes: Adjusted metrics are non-GAAP as defined/reconciled in the release (e.g., adjusted EBITDA includes distributions from equity method investments; free cash flow excludes capital contributions to equity-method investees) .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Total sales volume (Bcfe)	FY 2025	Prior outlook lower by ~125 Bcfe (exact range not disclosed)	2,175–2,275	Raised vs prior outlook
Q1 sales volume (Bcfe)	Q1 2025	N/A	525–575	New
Operating costs ($/Mcfe)	FY 2025	N/A	$1.10–$1.24	New
Avg differential ($/Mcf)	FY 2025	N/A	($0.70)–($0.50)	New
Third-party midstream revenue ($MM)	FY 2025	N/A	$500–$600	New
Distributions from MVP & LMM ($MM)	FY 2025	N/A	$170–$195	New
Maintenance capex ($MM)	FY 2025	N/A	$1,950–$2,120	New
Strategic growth capex ($MM)	FY 2025	N/A	$350–$380	New
Total capex ($MM)	FY 2025	N/A	$2,300–$2,500	New

Dividend action around the period: declared $0.1575/share, payable March 3, 2025 (Feb 6, 2025 PR) .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2 2024 and Q3 2024)	Current Period (Q4 2024)	Trend
Equitrans integration & synergies	Closed Equitrans in Q2; emphasized structural cost advantage ; Q3: >60% integrated, $145M annualized base synergies de-risked .	Integration ~90% complete; ~85% base and ~35% upside synergies de-risked; earlier compression benefits .	Accelerating synergy capture
Tactical curtailments & basis	Q3: tactical curtailments improved differential by $0.10/Mcf; pro forma operating costs $1.07/Mcfe .	Second straight quarter of realized pricing outperformance via curtailments; $20M revenue uplift in Jan from opening chokes .	Ongoing optimization of realizations
Compression investments	Q3: pilots showed uplift ~2x prior 10% assumption; eyeing 2025 impact .	Earlier-than-expected compression gains; drop to two frac crews in April; 2025 production raised .	Pull-forward and expanded benefits
Deleveraging/asset sales	Q3: non-op sale announced; progressing regulated midstream sales .	~$4.7B proceeds closed; YE24 net debt $9.1B; target ~$7B YE25 .	Ahead of plan
AI/data center power demand	Q3: detailed power market thesis; gas turbines order growth; 6–10 Bcf/d incremental demand by 2030 .	Active talks with hyperscalers/power producers; EQT’s IG/low-emissions/integration cited; deals could be premium to index or fixed .	Momentum strengthening
MVP & Appalachia basis	Q3: expected seasonal MVP flow; normalized Eastern storage improved local pricing .	MVP at max ~2 Bcf/d in winter; large Station 165 spreads; tightening M2 basis into 2030 .	Basis tightening supports realizations

Management Commentary

“EQT's operations are firing on all cylinders, with material efficiency gains, robust well performance and Equitrans integration momentum driving outperformance... nearly $600 million of free cash flow despite Henry Hub averaging just $2.81 per MMBtu during the quarter.” — Toby Z. Rice, CEO .
“We are initiating a production guidance range of 2,175 to 2,275 Bcfe... driven by robust well performance, completion efficiency gains, and earlier-than-expected benefits from compression investments... approximately $2.6 billion of free cash flow in 2025, $3.3 billion in 2026.” — Toby Z. Rice .
“We delivered sales volumes of 605 Bcfe at the high end of guidance... differential came in $0.13 tighter... operating costs $1.07/Mcfe... capex 7% below the low end... EQT generated $756 million of CFO and $588 million of FCF in the quarter.” — Jeremy Knop, CFO .
“We exited 2024 with $9.3 billion of total debt and $9.1 billion of net debt... expect to exit 2025 with net debt of approximately $7 billion, comfortably below our target of $7.5 billion.” — Jeremy Knop .

Q&A Highlights

Maintenance capex and compression: 2025 maintenance capex incorporates peak compression spend in 2025 (~$130M), declining in 2026; compression uplift now embedded in plans, with timing the main variable .
Data center/power demand commercial strategy: Active discussions with hyperscalers and power producers; EQT’s integration allows one-stop gas plus midstream solutions; structures include premium-to-index or fixed; IG rating is a gating item for counterparties .
Hedging and deleveraging: No incremental hedges added in Q4; positioned for upside in late 2025 and unhedged in 2026; focus on patient opportunistic hedging and reducing debt toward ~$5B medium-term .
MVP and basis: MVP flows at/near capacity in winter; significant Station 165 spreads highlight embedded option value; tightening M2 basis supports realizations .
Portfolio/plays: Deep Utica not core to 2025; Marcellus remains best capital allocation; inventory depth extended via integration and infill leasing .

Estimates Context

S&P Global consensus for Q4 2024 EPS/revenue could not be retrieved at this time due to data access limits. We will update estimate comparisons when SPGI data becomes available.
Directionally, management highlighted beats versus internal guidance on volume, differential, opex, and capex; formal EPS/revenue vs-consensus comparisons are not shown pending S&P Global data .

Key Takeaways for Investors

2025 production guidance raised on earlier compression benefits with no incremental activity; cost/efficiency momentum supports higher volumes and lower maintenance intensity .
FCF durability demonstrated at low gas prices; ~$600M Q4 FCF with $2.81 Henry Hub; guide implies ~$2.6B FCF in 2025 at recent strip, underpinning accelerated deleveraging .
Tactical curtailments and choke management deliver realized price uplift and preserve productive capacity, with MVP/basis tailwinds heightening upside optionality .
Integration synergy capture is ahead of schedule; compression investments are a structural driver of sustained outperformance (fewer wells/crews to hold flat volumes) .
Watch catalysts: potential power market offtake structures (premium index/fixed), regulated midstream monetization progress, and Eastern basis trajectory into 2025–2026 .
Near-term trading setup: positive narrative pivot on raised 2025 volumes, cost discipline, and deleveraging; risk skew from gas price/basis and derivative P&L volatility remains.

Appendix: Additional Context and Disclosures

Q4 2024 headline financials (YoY): adjusted EBITDA up to ~$1.41B (from $840M), adjusted EPS $0.69 (from $0.48), CFO $756M (from $624M), FCF $588M (from $229M), volumes 605 Bcfe (from 564), avg realized price $3.01/Mcfe (from $2.75) .
Per-unit costs: $1.07/Mcfe (vs $1.27 YoY) with higher transmission per Mcfe from MVP capacity charges; SG&A per Mcfe up on headcount/pro services with integration .
Proved reserves: 26.3 Tcfe (down 5% YoY) due to NEPA non-op divestitures and production; PV-10 at SEC pricing ~$9.8B; strip sensitivity PV-10 ~$26.7B .
Hedging (as of Feb 14, 2025): 2025 swaps/collars outlined with Q1–Q4 volumes/strikes; unhedged in 2026+ position provides upside exposure .

Sources: Q4 2024 press release and 8-K exhibit, earnings call transcript, and prior quarter releases/transcripts .

EQT Corp (EQT)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary