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    ERIE INDEMNITY (ERIE)

    Q3 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Jan 4, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$415.18Last close (Nov 1, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$415.18Last close (Nov 1, 2024)
    Price Change
    $0.00(0.00%)
    • Erie Indemnity Company continues to experience strong operating performance, driven by higher management fee revenue resulting from the Exchange's direct written premium growth of over 18% in Q3 2024 and over 19% year-to-date.
    • The Exchange's policies in force grew 6% despite rate increases, maintaining a strong policyholder retention rate of 90.8%.
    • The company was added to the S&P 500 Index this quarter, reflecting its solid performance and market recognition.
    • High Combined Ratios Indicating Underwriting Losses: The Exchange's combined ratio was 113.7% in the third quarter of 2024 and 112% year-to-date, suggesting underwriting losses and profitability challenges. ,
    • Significant Impact from Catastrophic Weather Events: Hurricane Helene contributed 5.3 points to the third quarter combined ratio and 1.9 points to the year-to-date combined ratio, highlighting vulnerability to weather-related losses. ,
    • Increased Loss Cost Pressures Leading to Higher Premiums: The company is experiencing increased loss cost pressures and has implemented significant premium rate increases. While premiums have grown, there is a risk that higher rates may affect customer retention and new business growth. ,
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Revenue

    +16%

    Stronger growth in direct and affiliated assumed premiums drove higher management fee revenue and elevated the top line. Additionally, improved investment income supported revenue increases during the period, aided by favorable market yields and stable policy retention. Looking ahead, continuing premium growth may sustain revenue momentum.

    Management Fee Revenue

    +6%

    The rise in premiums written by the Exchange directly increased management fees. Company-specific initiatives, including expanded policy offerings, also contributed to fee revenue growth. Forward-looking, further policy growth and steady fee rates could maintain this upward trend.

    Administrative Services Reimbursement Revenue

    +10%

    Higher direct written premiums drove an increase in reimbursable administrative costs. This led to parallel growth in reimbursement revenue, which remains closely tied to premium expansion. Expectations of continued premium growth suggest stable administrative revenue in future periods.

    Cost of Goods Sold

    +15%

    Rising commissions and underwriting costs corresponded to the premium-driven revenue expansion, lifting overall costs. Market conditions, including increased labor and IT expenses, also contributed. Looking forward, managing agent incentives and digital costs will be key to containing these expenses.

    Operating Income

    +21%

    Revenue growth outpaced the rise in operating expenses. Management fee revenue and moderate commission costs drove improved profitability. Investment income gains further supported operating income. Going forward, sustaining premium growth and cost discipline should help maintain healthy margins.

    Net Income

    +22%

    Higher operating income and increased investment returns led to a notable boost in net income. Additionally, controlled commission structures and improved expense management contributed to this profit expansion. Future net income will likely hinge on continued premium growth and stable investment environments.

    Earnings Per Share (Basic)

    +22%

    The rise in net income flowed through to EPS, with little change in the weighted average shares outstanding. Stronger management fee revenue and investment performance were key drivers. Sustaining EPS growth may rely on ongoing business expansion and careful share count management.

    Dividend Payments

    +7%

    Higher regular quarterly dividends, reflecting management confidence in future cash flows, fueled the YoY increase. This followed strong financial performance and stable premium growth. Looking ahead, consistent earnings could support further dividend enhancements.

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Combined ratio and underwriting losses

    Q2 2024: 115.9%, still impacted by catastrophes. Q1 2024: 106% (no specific underwriting losses mentioned). Q4 2023: 119.1%, affected by weather-related claims.

    Combined Ratio was 113.7% with a 5.3-point impact from Hurricane Helene. Year-to-date ratio at 112%, improved from 121.9% in 2023. Underwriting losses remain tied to weather events.

    Recurring topic with continued weather-related pressures but improving year-over-year.

    Strong premium growth and high retention

    Q2 2024: 20% growth, 91% retention. Q1 2024: 19% growth, 91.2% retention. Q4 2023: 43% new business premium growth, 91.2% retention.

    18% premium growth year-over-year; retention at 90.8%.

    Consistent strength in premium growth and retention across periods, key driver of revenue.

    Significant net income growth and financial performance

    Q2 2024: $164 million net income, up from $118 million. Q1 2024: $125 million vs. $86 million. Q4 2023: $111 million vs. $65.5 million.

    $160 million net income, up from $131 million in Q3 2023. Year-to-date net income of $448 million vs. $335 million in 2023.

    Ongoing robust growth driven by higher management fees and strong premium volume.

    Product innovation and technological advancements

    Q2 2024: Enhancements to agent platforms, AI initiatives. Q1 2024: Modernized one-third of legacy apps, introduced Photo Appraisal tool. Q4 2023: Cloud conversions, new comp platform, venture investments.

    Business Auto 2.0 pilot and automatic online account enrollment rolled out in 10 states, plus broader digital modernization efforts.

    Continuous innovation with new products, digital tools, and modernization fueling efficiency and customer engagement.

    Elevated weather-related losses

    Q2 2024: Catastrophic events added 16.2 points, slightly better than 16.9 in 2023. Q1 2024: 9 points, down from 12.6. Q4 2023: Weather claims rose from 50,000 to 70,000.

    Hurricane Helene added 5.3 points to the Q3 combined ratio; year-to-date ratio benefited from fewer total events vs. 2023.

    Persisting challenge, though less severe vs. prior year. Weather remains a key risk factor.

    Policyholder surplus fluctuations

    Q2 2024: Slight drop from $9.5B in March to $9.3B in June. Q1 2024: Rose $180M to $9.5B. Q4 2023: Ended at $9.3B, up $203M in Q4.

    Stable at $9.2 billion vs. $9.3 billion at end of 2023.

    Minor fluctuations but maintains a strong capital position.

    Increasing operating expenses

    Q2 2024: Noncommission up 2.4% in Q2, 6% year-to-date. Q1 2024: Total operations cost +17.3%. Q4 2023: +12.2% for the year.

    Commission expenses up 18.7% in Q3; noncommission costs up 13.8%, driven by personnel and technology.

    Consistent increases in line with higher premiums and modernization efforts.

    Dividend payments

    Q2 2024: $118 million through first half. Q1 2024: $59 million. Q4 2023: $222 million in 2023, plus 7.1% increase for 2024.

    Over $178 million paid in first nine months of 2024.

    Recurring payouts that continue to grow, signaling strong financial health.

    Research analysts covering ERIE INDEMNITY.