Essex Property Trust - Q2 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good day, welcome to the Essex Property Trust second quarter 2023 earnings conference call. As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded. Statements made on this conference call regarding expected operating results and other future events are forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Forward-looking statements are made based on current expectations, assumptions, and beliefs, as well as information available to the company at this time. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. Further information about these risks can be found on the company's filings with the SEC. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Ms. Angela L. Kleiman, President and Chief Executive Officer for Essex Property Trust. Thank you, Ms. Kleiman. You may begin.

Angela L. Kleiman (CEO)

Good morning. Thank you for joining Essex 2nd quarter earnings call. Barb Pak and Jessica Anderson will follow me with prepared remarks, and Adam Berry is here for Q&A. We delivered a solid 2nd quarter with core FFO per share exceeding the high end of our guidance range. In addition, we are pleased to announce a meaningful increase to our 2023 guidance for same-property revenues, NOI, and core FFO per share growth. Barb will discuss this further in a moment. Our performance today demonstrates the underlying strength of the West Coast economy, along with continued refinements to our operating strategy. My remarks today will focus on our 2023 revised outlook for the West Coast and conclude with an update on the transaction market.

Starting with expectations for the balance of the year, as shown on page S17 of the supplemental, our improved outlook reflects the year-to-date resilience of the economy and labor markets, both surpassing our initial forecast. This dynamic, coupled with slowing apartment deliveries, have contributed to a healthy demand for rental housing in our markets. As a result, we raised our average market rent growth expectations for the West Coast by 50 basis points to 2.5%, with notable increases to San Diego and San Jose. Demand associated with job growth is a key driver to the revision. We now expect our markets to generate 1.7% job growth for the full year. This is mostly attributable to the growth achieved in the first half of the year, with our markets posting 2.6% job growth on a trailing 3-month average through June.

Additionally, the layoff announcements from the largest technology companies have proven less consequential than headlines suggested, with only a fraction occurring within our markets and the vast majority of those affected quickly finding new employment. Turning to the supply outlook. Our research forecasts a slight reduction in 2023 deliveries as a few delayed projects get pushed into 2024. While we have been pleased with the steady job growth achieved on the West Coast to start the year, we remain cognizant of the potential for more interest rate increases, given the Fed's focus on inflation reduction. Thus, our job outlook contemplates a moderating economy as we approach year-end, and accordingly, our base case expectation assumes modest market rent growth for the remainder of the year.

Looking forward to the next several years, we see the West Coast as uniquely positioned to generate above-average rent growth based on three key factors present today. First, and most importantly, the West Coast supply outlook is relatively muted, and a multi-year lead time is required to develop new housing in our markets. With permitting activities declining, we expect to benefit from moderate supply levels for years to come. Second is rental affordability. Since 2020, average personal income in the Essex market has grown over 20%, compared to cumulative rent growth of 10%, resulting in attractive rental affordability. Furthermore, high cost of homeownership continues to favor renting. It is now over 2x more expensive to own compared to rent in the Essex market. Third, solid demand drivers. Our southern region continues to demonstrate stable growth, supported by a diverse and vibrant economy.

Likewise, the northern region economies are steadily growing. A key driver is the investment in AI companies that are largely concentrated in Northern California. We've seen open positions of the top 10 tech companies improve gradually each month since the trough earlier this year. Lastly, fully remote as percentage of total job postings have significantly declined at below 10% in June. For these reasons, we expect the West Coast to continue gaining momentum for the remainder of 2023 and outperform over the next several years. Lastly, turning to the investment markets. Transaction activities in the West Coast have remained muted. Similar to the first quarter, volume in the second quarter was about 55% lower than the same period prior year, with cap rates in the mid-4% to low 5% range for institutional quality properties.

We are starting to see more deals actively marketed at similar valuation levels. Interests from a healthy group of buyers range from local syndicators to large institutional and foreign investors. As expected, leverage buyers remain largely on the sidelines, waiting for more clarity on interest rates. We continue to diligently underwrite deals as we are well positioned to be opportunistic. With that, I'll turn the call over to Barb Pak.

Barb Pak (CFO)

Thanks, Angela. I'll begin with a brief overview of our second quarter results, discuss increases to our full year guidance, and provide an update on capital markets and the balance sheet. Beginning with our second quarter performance, I'm pleased to report we achieved core FFO per share of $3.77. This result exceeded the midpoint of our guidance range by 0.08 per share, of which 0.06 is attributable to better revenue growth and lower property taxes in Washington. Our favorable year-to-date results have enabled us to increase the full year midpoint of our same-property revenue growth by approximately 40 basis points to 4.4%. The increase is due to higher occupancy and net effective rents achieved year-to-date, partially offset by higher delinquency in the second half of the year as compared to our original forecast.

As it relates to same-property operating expenses, we have reduced our midpoint by 100 basis points to 4% as a result of a reduction in Washington property taxes. Due to these revisions, our full year same-property NOI growth has increased to 4.5% at the midpoint, representing a 90 basis points improvement to our guidance-- to our initial guidance. As a result of our strong second quarter and revisions to our same-property outlook, we are raising the full year midpoint of core FFO by 0.22 to $15 per share, which represents 3.4% year-over-year growth. Turning to capital markets activities. We have historically been proactive in managing our capital needs and debt maturity profile, taking advantage of attractive opportunities in the market to refinance our debt early, minimizing our near-term capital needs, and maximizing our financial flexibility.

Subsequent to quarter end, we closed a 298 million, 10-year secured loan at a fixed rate of 5.08%. Proceeds will be used to repay unsecured bonds maturing in May 2024. In the interim, the proceeds will be invested in short-term cash accounts, resulting in a positive impact to FFO of approximately 0.03 per share until the unsecured bonds are repaid next year. Our capital markets team did a terrific job monitoring the variety of debt capital sources available and locking in a favorable rate in today's volatile environment. With this refinancing, the company has addressed approximately 50% of the 2024 debt maturities at pro rata share. Finally, our balance sheet metrics remain strong. Leverage continues to decline, and our net debt to EBITDA ratio continues to trend lower and stands at 5.6x today.

We have minimal near-term financing needs over the next 18 months and over 1.6 billion in liquidity. As such, the company remains in a strong financial position. I'll now turn the call over to Jessica Anderson.

Jessica Anderson (SVP of Operations)

Thanks, Barb. I'll begin my comments today by providing color on our recent operating results and strategy, followed by regional commentary. I was pleased with our operating results from the second quarter, including a same property revenue increase of 4% year-over-year. For the first several months of the year, we maintained an occupancy-focused leasing strategy to mitigate expected headwinds from eviction-related move-outs. This approach helped us exceed revenue expectations in the first half of the year and left us well positioned to push rate during peak leasing season, which continues today. Our new lease trade out accelerated through the second quarter from 0.5% in May to 1.7% in June, and finally to a preliminary 2.1% in July.

Renewal trade-out is stable and averaged 3.4%, resulting in blended net effective rent growth of 2.2% for the second quarter. These results were achieved despite increased turnover, driven by eviction-related move-outs. Given ongoing delinquency court backlogs, we will continue to work through evictions for the rest of the year and anticipate some of this activity spilling over into 2024. Moving on to regional specific commentary. In Seattle, blended net effective rent growth averaged -0.2% for the second quarter, dragging down the portfolio average. This is attributed to two key factors. First is the year-over-year comp. In the second quarter of 2022, Seattle generated a portfolio-leading net effective rent growth of over 16%. Second, Seattle remains our most seasonal market, thus is more sensitive to changes in the operating environment.

You may recall, during the back half of 2022, the Seattle market experienced increased supply during a period of softening demand, which heavily impacted rents as we headed into 2023. Throughout the second quarter, we saw a steady strengthening of demand, particularly in Seattle CBD, that coincided with Amazon's mandatory May 1st return to office of three days a week. Strong leasing activity drove a collective 680 basis point sequential increase in net effective rents from April to June and a solid 97% quarter-end occupancy. Moving on to Northern California. Blended net effective rent growth averaged 1.5% for the second quarter. Oakland continues to be impacted by supply, posting a negative 0.4% for the quarter, diluting the healthy 2.7% achieved in San Jose, where the bulk of our Northern California portfolio is located.

Despite the tech employment headlines, we still experienced corporate housing activity associated with the large tech companies, albeit muted from last year, which helped support seasonal demand. Quarter-end occupancy was also solid at 96.7%. Lastly, in Southern California, blended net effective rent growth averaged 4.1% for the quarter, driven by continued strength in San Diego, Ventura, and Orange County. Los Angeles is pulling the average down with a 1.9% blended lease trade out for the quarter. Because of eviction activity in this market, rent growth and occupancy are expected to run lower relative to the rest of Southern California for the remainder of the year. Quarter-end occupancy in Southern California was 96.3%. In summary, we are encouraged by our results for the first half of the year and the current operating environment.

As we begin the third quarter, we are well positioned with a current physical occupancy of 96.7%, coupled with strong leasing activity across all markets. As we look to the back half of the year, we will reassess our rent growth focused strategy as the summer leasing season wraps up in the next 30 days and maintain our flexible approach to maximize revenue in a variety of market conditions. I will now turn the call back to the operator for questions. Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you'd like to remove your question from the queue.

For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star key. One moment please, while we poll for questions. Thank you. Our first question is from Eric Wolfe with Citi. Please proceed with your question.

Eric Wolfe (Analyst)

Hey, thanks. I think at Nareit, you mentioned that you saw some earlier move-outs of, of non-paying tenants, which was, which partly was impacting your pricing and use of concessions. Based on your comments and just looking at the July data, it seems like your delinquent percentage is, is staying about the same. Just trying to reconcile that and, and try to understand when we might actually see the, the delinquent percentage come down.

Jessica Anderson (SVP of Operations)

Hi, Eric, it's Barb. I would say, you know, delinquency is generally tracking in line. We were ahead in the first six months, relative to our plan, primarily due to emergency rental assistance payments. July is generally on plan, and we do expect that number will continue to trend lower, and by the end of the year will be below 2%. We left our midpoint unchanged at 2% for the full year. We, we are making progress, but it's slow. It's dependent upon the courts and just resident behavior, so it's a little bit out of our control.

Eric Wolfe (Analyst)

Understood. I guess, just to be clear, I mean, you know, if I look at the sort of May data around new leases, you're using concessions. That was what was suppressing that number. I mean, I guess, what, I guess, what drove that then? Then what changed to allow you to feel more comfortable with the push rate?

Jessica Anderson (SVP of Operations)

This is Jessica. Hi, Eric. I'll take that. With regards to our shift in strategy, around mid-May, we changed from an occupancy-focused strategy to more focused on rent growth. To your point, what, what got us more comfortable with that? Well, a couple of things. One would be really the, the macroeconomic outlook. The headlines that we were seeing earlier in the year and the layoffs, and the headlines overall were concerning. So we took a proactive approach, and the layoffs subsided, and we started seeing strengthening. In addition to that, with regards to the evictions, they've been coming back at a pretty steady pace, which is manageable.

Based on the strength we were seeing in the markets and the manageable pace at which we were getting the evictions, we felt comfortable shifting to a rate growth focus. What you're seeing in April and May that we had shared as far as our trade out numbers go, reflects concession usage that was predominantly in April. We averaged about a week free at that point. We did go through a glut of evictions that we wanted to offset and reposition our occupancy at a higher rate right before peak season, and some of that activity spilled over into May. As of today, concession usage is minimal across all of our markets.

Eric Wolfe (Analyst)

Okay. All right. Thank you.

Jessica Anderson (SVP of Operations)

Thank you. Our next question is from Steve Sakwa with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question.

Steve Sakwa (Analyst)

Yeah, thanks. Good morning. Just to follow up on Eric's question, just to be clear. Your delinquencies baked into guidance are basically 2% for Q3 and Q4. Secondly, can you just provide some color on what your blended, I guess, rate expectations are for Q3 and Q4?

Jessica Anderson (SVP of Operations)

Hi, Steve, this is Barb. I'll take the first part of that question. In terms of delinquency, yeah, it's roughly 2% for the full year. We're at 2.1 to date, year to date, it's a little bit under that in the back half of the year. Like I said, we do expect it to continue to trend favorable, but it is, it's a, an inherent lumpy number, and so it's difficult to predict month to month, but end of the year should be less than 2% for sure. On the blended, I'll let Jessica answer that. Hi, Steve, this is Jessica. As far as blended goes, I'm going to break that out into new lease and to renewals.

Year-to-date for our new leases, we've achieved 1.1%, but keep in mind, that reflects our focus on maintaining a high occupancy earlier in the year. We gave approximately over 0.5 week in concessions to maintain that higher occupancy. When we look at our S17 outlook, we've revised it from 2% full year rent growth to 2.5%, which reflects the broader expectations of the market. In order to make it apples to apples, we have to adjust our first half. Essentially, 0.5 week is 1% of rent growth.

So if you add that to our 1.1, you get to a 2.1, which leads us to 2.8% for new lease growth expected for the back half of the year. Based on the strength that we're seeing in the markets right now, the easier comps that we'll be facing in Q3, particularly Q4, that is an achievable number. As far as renewals go, renewals are reaccelerating. We sent renewals out in August and September at around 4%. You may have noticed in our results that renewals had come down, which essentially to 2.8% preliminary for July. Renewals trail new leases by approximately 60-90 days. Wherever new leases go, renewals end up following.

We've been able to achieve some solid rent growth, therefore, the renewals reaccelerate and expect renewals to be around 4% for the back half of the year.

Angela L. Kleiman (CEO)

Great. Thanks very much.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question is from Austin Wurschmidt with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Austin Wurschmidt (Analyst)

Great, thank you. Given the strength that you highlighted year to date, the benefit to same-store revenue growth in the first half of the year, as well as some of the new lease rate growth momentum you achieved in June and July, I guess why, why leave your back half same-store revenue growth guidance of 3% unchanged?

Barb Pak (CFO)

Yeah, this is Barb. Hi, Austin. I would say, you know, I think we know. You know, we've done the vast majority of our leases. We still have some to go. We know where, you know, leases are going to trend this year. That top-line number, you know, if we get substantially more rent growth from here, it's really going to benefit 2024 at this point versus 2023, given the amount of time that's left in the year. The number of leases that we have left to sign is lower in the third and the fourth quarter. I think that's the biggest factor. The biggest factor to our guidance at this point, in terms of same store, is really delinquency. It can swing up or down. That's the biggest wild card right now.

I think the other, the other components of the same-store revenue are pretty dialed in.

Austin Wurschmidt (Analyst)

Got it. Then, Jessica, I think you said 2.8% new lease rate growth in the back half of the year. Just trying to understand the cadence of that through the back half, obviously starting in the, the low 2% range here. You, you've got easier comps coming, you know, given the deceleration you saw last year. Can you give us a sense of that cadence? Then from a back half perspective, you know, what type of seasonality did you underwrite, you know, for, for the back half?

Jessica Anderson (SVP of Operations)

Okay. As far as where we see the great trade-out going, would expect that it's slightly different by market, but expect that to accelerate from here. It'll be higher in Q4, and that's simply based on the comps, as, as you pointed out. As far as seasonality goes, we see this as being a typical year, and we may have a prolonged peak. We've been monitoring our, our rents, and typically we peak in NorCal and Seattle around right around about now or mid-July, and then SoCal is often a little bit later. As of this week, we're still seeing rents accelerate in San Jose, specifically, and Southern California, and some of our other markets are leveling off at this point.

Pretty normal, but we're seeing strong leasing on the ground, and anticipate a typical seasonal slowdown.

Austin Wurschmidt (Analyst)

That's helpful. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question is from Jamie Feldman with Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your question.

Jamie Feldman (Research Analyst)

Great, thank you. you know, your comments and also EQR's comment earlier talked about, maybe an improving return to office, especially in the Bay Area. Can you talk more about what you're seeing? Also, you know, how do you think about the implications for suburban versus urban, type assets as more people are getting pulled in the cities? I think their comment was, you know, the more urban people want to be closer to their workplaces.

Angela L. Kleiman (CEO)

Hey, Jamie, it's Angela here. I, I think there are a couple of things that are different between how our portfolio is located versus EQR, and where the key job nodes are in California versus the rest of the country. I'll start there. As it relates to the urban/suburban conversation, keep in mind that in California, most of the large tech companies are actually suburban-based. You know, that, that, of course, for us, it's always been a benefit, even pre-COVID. The underlying strength is a couple of factors, right? Lower supply in the suburban markets. The cities are tougher, quality of life, more homeless, and some of these other issues. Of course, the proximity to employers are much more, you know, favorable from that perspective.

So from that perspective, you know, at Essex, our view is that the suburban still is more compelling than the urban, and that is consistent to our prior investment thesis, even before COVID. As far as the return to office, we saw that in Seattle with Amazon early May. Although I do want to say that that was somewhat muted than normal, just because of the layoff announcements, and so it was really people digesting and getting rehired. So from the return to office activity, what we would expect to see is that it'll be more pronounced in September with Meta and some of these other larger companies. Essex, you know, for us, we're doing the same thing. We are mandating a three-day return to office, not until September, after Labor Day as well.

So we do see that at that point, the, the activities will, will resume in a more, you know, robust way.

Jamie Feldman (Research Analyst)

Okay, thank you. Then as we think about your expenses heading into late into fourth quarter or even into next year, can you just talk a little bit about where you think you may see either the greatest moderation or maybe some acceleration in operating expense growth across the major line items?

Barb Pak (CFO)

Yeah, this is Barb. I would say, you know, in the back half of this year, you know, we have easier comps as it relates to eviction costs and turnover because we had those expenses last year in the fourth quarter. So some of the, the expenses that we've seen in the first quarter and some of our high R&M and admin expenses will moderate in the back half of the year, just on a year-over-year growth basis. I would say in terms of other lines this year, I don't, I don't see significant change in any other major line this year. I think we've got expenses pretty dialed in for, for this year. We do know taxes and insurance. As we look to 2024, it's difficult to predict just yet where we're gonna land. It.

We'll be going through our budget process here this quarter. I'll have more clarity on the next quarter call. The one line item that we've talked about in the past is insurance. It still is a very challenging market. We would expect that we would be up 20%+ next year on the insurance line. Keep in mind, that's a very small line for us. It's only, like, 4% of our total OpEx spend. While the headline number is large, it's a small component of our OpEx. Outside of that, and outside of the favorable taxes we have in California, where they only grow 2%, we need a little more time to dial in 2024.

Jamie Feldman (Research Analyst)

Okay, that makes a lot of sense. I guess just sticking with insurance, are you seeing any lightening up from the insurance companies in terms of what they're willing to offer as they build up their capital reserves? Or no, you think it's gonna be another tough year?

Barb Pak (CFO)

Right now, based on what we know, we, we believe it will be a tough year. We're gonna go through our renewal in the fourth quarter of this year. Our renewal comes up in December. I'll have more clarity on the next call in terms of that market. Based on what we're hearing, we think it's still a, a very challenging market.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question is from Alexander Goldfarb with Piper Sandler. Please proceed with your question.

Alexander Goldberg (Analyst)

Hey, good morning out there. Two questions. First, Angela, you know, you'd made comments before that, you know, sort of outward migration from California is always a constant, but it's the H-1B visas, the overseas tech workers, et cetera, entrepreneurs who immigrate to the country that, you know, offset and drive. Just sort of curious, what's the latest on, you know, tech hiring from overseas? You know, whether it's permanent or, you know, sort of the annual consultants who they bring in. Just curious what's going on there.

Angela L. Kleiman (CEO)

Yeah, Alex, that's a good question. What we have seen is on a net migration for California as a whole, so this is market as a whole, that net outflow remains negative, but it hasn't been. It's gotten better. During COVID, it was an extreme outflow. Now, when we look at the net migration outflow number, it's pretty consistent to pre-COVID. We do think that once we have that international, it would definitely be a good tailwind. As far as when we look at our own portfolio, you know, just on a more granular level, so this is move-ins.

We saw a pop last year between the 1st and 3rd quarter with, California reopening, and that acceleration was, you know, definitely very encouraging to see. Since then, the move-out, obviously, it's not gonna continue at that level in terms of acceleration, but, I'm sorry, I meant to say the move-ins. It has remained positive, and it's been stable, and so that's another good sign.

Alexander Goldberg (Analyst)

Okay. Second question is on capital markets. You guys did a secured loan that wasn't for a JV. Normally, I guess in REIT land, for the investment-grade companies, we expect secured loans either in times of distress or, you know, for a joint venture asset. Here, it seems like the unsecured debt markets are open. Just sort of curious, you know, the decision on that. Also, I imagine there were probably a bunch of people who are out there hungry to buy more of your unsecured. Maybe it's just, you know, maybe you have something else planned later in the year that satisfies that. Just sort of curious about the decision to do secured in what seems to be a functioning unsecured debt market.

Barb Pak (CFO)

Hi, Alex. It's Barb. That's a great question. I will tell you, we do prefer unsecured debt, and that's been kind of our ammo for many, many years, that that's the way we finance the balance sheet. In this environment, though, we saw a significant pricing differential between the secured and the unsecured market. So while we locked in our uns-- the secured loans at 5.0%, if we were to go to do an unsecured bond, it would've been 65-75 basis points wide of that. So that pricing differential was so great that we decided to move forward with the secured side of the equation. 95% of our NOI is unencumbered, so we have lots of room within our covenants to secure a few assets. There's no change in our overall balance sheet philosophy.

It was just really a pricing differential that, that made us move the way we did.

Angela L. Kleiman (CEO)

Okay. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question is from Josh Dennerlein with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.

Joshua Dinnerline (Analyst)

Yeah. Hey, everyone. Thanks for the time. Just wanted to ask about the R&M same-store expenses. It looks like it was impacted by storms and flooding damage in the first half of the year. One, is that all behind us now, so it will kind of normalize out in 3Q? Then, what would that trend look like if you had-- if you could strip, strip out the storm impact?

Barb Pak (CFO)

Hi, this is Barb again. Yes, you are correct. It, it is impacted by some of the spillover from the storm and flood damage cleanup costs in the second quarter. We had a lot in the first quarter, and some of it spilled into the second quarter. It also had higher turnover costs because keep in mind, we are getting back units. It's, it's that, and then just general inflation, inflationary pressures within the R&M space. It's three components. In terms of if we just pulled out the flood, I don't have that in front of me. I'll get back to you on what that would be, but it's really all three of those components that drove that increase. In the back half of the year, though, I do expect that number to come down.

First of all, we don't expect the same level of storms or floods. It's not a rainy season here right now, that should abate and not be in our third or fourth quarter numbers. The eviction-related turnover costs, we have easier comps in the third and fourth quarter because we started incurring those last year in the third and fourth quarter. That 14% that we had in the third quarter should moderate significantly in the third and fourth quarter.

Joshua Dinnerline (Analyst)

Okay, I appreciate that, Barb. Can you just clarify when exactly you made that strategy shift from occupancy to rate growth? I guess my real question is, does that imply you have a bigger mark-to-market? I, I'm not sure if you actually set the mark-to-market at this time.

Jessica Anderson (SVP of Operations)

Yes. Hi, Josh, this is Jessica. Yeah, we switched, really about mid-May. As far as the mark-to-market, we're looking. Right now, our loss to lease is 1.7%. As I mentioned earlier, still seeing our rents grow in, in some markets. Expect that potentially to go up a little bit more.

Joshua Dinnerline (Analyst)

Okay. Is that about average, the loss to lease at this time of year, 1.7, or is it a little bit below normal because of that, the initial strategy on the occupancy?

Jessica Anderson (SVP of Operations)

Yeah, it's definitely a little suppressed based on our approach, our approach earlier in the year.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question is from Nick Yulico with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question. Nick, is your line on mute?

Derek De Boni (Analyst)

It's Derek Johnston on for Nick. I can ask the question. July, new lease rates accelerated nicely from 2Q. Just curious what markets drove that sequential improvement? Second, do you think it's possible to see continued acceleration, given, you know, some of your larger markets have lagged year to date and are, you know, I guess, still recovering in a sense, you know, in tandem with the, you know, pretty benign supply backdrop?

Jessica Anderson (SVP of Operations)

Hi, this is Jessica. Yes, we did see Seattle was a large contributor to the sequential improvement, followed by Northern California. Southern California has, has been performing pretty, pretty steadily. In Northern California, San Jose has been particularly strong, which reflects over 40% of our portfolio in the Bay Area. We've seen strong occupancy, strong leasing demand. That one's encouraging. Certainly watching it, we've seen with all of the, the prior return to office announcements, so Amazon and Seattle CBD, and then last year with, with Google as well in the Bay Area, there's definitely demand associated to these return-to-office events. Anticipating that Meta, which is in September, is gonna have the same impact, I would imagine we're experiencing some of that, some of that demand right now.

Also, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, the corporate housing activity. It is less than last year, but we still saw the activity this year, which is always an encouraging sign as far as the health of the big tech employers. You know, they certainly wouldn't be investing in interns and in contract work, you know, if they were planning on tightening their belts. You know, we've certainly seen an uptick in hiring as well. San Jose has been doing quite well. Seattle had already touched on the Seattle CBD and the Amazon return to office, so that was a factor, and we're still seeing strength and demand today.

However, it is our most seasonal market, and, and so we certainly see, the most pronounced, reduction in rents in the back half of the year in that market. Expect it to be in line with our, our typical seasonal curve and expectations there. Also supply. We do have some supply headwinds in Seattle. Some of it was pushed, to the, the first half of, of 2024, so it's a little bit better than what we originally expected, but we still have, some supply on our radar there.

Derek De Boni (Analyst)

Great. Thank you for that. Then I'm not sure if you have an answer to this question, but San Diego, you know, one of your stronger markets, wondering if you have a sense of like, which employment sectors are driving, you know, demand in that, in that market for your assets?

Angela L. Kleiman (CEO)

Hey, it's Angela here. The key drivers in actually all of our markets have been in the health services and education and of course, the, the leisure and hospitality as well. You know, with, with San Diego rebounding, it's, it's been, it's been good to see those activities coming back in a more robust way.

Haendel St. Juste (Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Great. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question is from John Kim with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

John Kim (Analyst)

Thank you. On the Washington property taxes coming in lower than expected, was that due to a favorable appeal that you had or lower mill rates or something else?

Barb Pak (CFO)

Yeah. Hi, John, it's Barb. Property taxes in Washington declined 1% year-over-year. The assessed values went up 15%. When we were budgeting, we, we knew assessed values were up quite a bit, but millage rates came down, and so that's what drove the favorable year-over-year reduction in taxes. It wasn't based on appeal.

John Kim (Analyst)

Do you think that rate is, a good rate, one rate going forward, or is it more of a one-time reduction?

Barb Pak (CFO)

It's really hard to know. There's a lag effect in terms of when they do the bills. Our 24 bills will be based off of one, January of 2023 assessed values, which we don't know, you know, what those will be at this point. Obviously, values have changed over the last year, it also depends on the millage rate and what the city does with that, that's always a wild card factor. Historically, we've not had a reduction in Seattle taxes two years in a row, we'll have to just monitor and see, you know, next year. I don't know if a negative 1% is a good way. I wouldn't use that. I don't think that's how we would view it, going forward, but we are pleasantly surprised this year.

John Kim (Analyst)

Okay. My second question is on your loss to lease. I think Jessica mentioned it was 1.7%. Last year, Angela mentioned that the September loss to lease is a good indicator for your future earnings. I'm wondering how you think that trend, just given the market rental rate assumption, has gone up. I think you touched on this a little bit, where do you see that September loss to lease go to?

Barb Pak (CFO)

It's definitely a little bit too early to predict that, we had a typical seasonal curve. It'll be interesting to see how the back half of peak leasing season plays out. Yes, I, I did share we have the 1.7% loss to lease today, but based on several of our markets, still accelerating with rent growth week over week, that may, may grow from here. Also, the Meta return to office that we're watching and the demand overall in the Bay Area could change how we typically experience in August or September. In short, it's, it's a little bit early, and yes, we will look at that in September, as we typically do.

John Kim (Analyst)

Thanks for your help.

Angela L. Kleiman (CEO)

Hey, John, it's Angela. Just a little context. You know, I think last year around this time, we were sitting around 7% loss to lease, and, but we were looking at this seasonal curve that is occurring in a more, you know, the mere pre-COVID level. What happened was, the prior year, we didn't even peak until November. It's been a little wonky coming out of COVID, and so it's, you know. September, generally, as a rule of thumb, is a good data point, but just because of the uniqueness in the past couple of years, I just, you know, we didn't want anyone to just peg a June number as a good rule of thumb.

John Kim (Analyst)

Okay. Great color. Thanks.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question is from Haendel St. Juste with BMO. Please proceed with your question.

Haendel St. Juste (Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, good. Good morning still to you. First question is on, on transactions, as we've heard, as we've seen, still pretty stalled, but you mentioned that you're diligently underwriting deals. I'm curious, you know, where, where you, you peg the bid-ask spread at today and where asset pricing would need to be for you to get more active? Thanks.

Adam Berry (Company Representative)

Hi, Haendel, this is Adam. Yes, we're underwriting every deal on the market, and even though in Q2, volume went down pretty considerably, Q3, I expect it to be increased, just given the amount of activity in the market today. We are underwriting a lot of deals right now, and, you know, there isn't much of a bid-ask spread. I think many of the deals, most of the deals that are on the market today, will make. I think there will be capitulation on both sides and a meeting of the minds. I think, you know, echoing what Angela said in her opening comments, I think those are gonna be in the mid-4s to low-5s range, depending on product, location, and then specific circumstances, whether there's assumable debt or some tax abatements.

As far as when we will be back in the market, I think that's really highly dependent on where our cost of capital is. Given where we're trading today, that it's hard to make accretive deals in the mid-4s to low-5s, we will continue to market or continue to monitor the market, we will act when it makes sense.

Haendel St. Juste (Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Gotcha. Gotcha. That's helpful. A follow-up on the conversation around concessions. Can you guys provide a more detailed breakdown, perhaps by region, what the average concessions that you're providing in your NorCal, SoCal and Seattle regions are, and then also a loss to lease by region? Thanks.

Barb Pak (CFO)

Sure. This is Jessica. Concessions in Q2 by region. If we look at Southern California, it's at a little less than 0.5 week, Northern California, one week, and Seattle, a little bit over 0.5 week. That gets us to, like, 0.7 weeks overall. Keep in mind that a lot of that was concentrated in the April time frame. Some of it spilled over into May. By the time we got to the end of the quarter, we pretty much have no concessions across the portfolio, with the exception of a very small portion of our portfolio that is exposed to lease. That's like 10-15 properties or so.

Then as far as loss to lease, by market, Southern California, 2.5%, Northern California, 0.7%, and Seattle, 1.9%, to make up the 1.7.

Haendel St. Juste (Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Great. Thank you for that. Then, sorry if I missed this, but what's the embedded assumption for bad debt impact to revenue in the back half of the year? Thanks.

Barb Pak (CFO)

Hi, and, it's Barb. It's, it's roughly 2%, a little bit under 2%, consistent with the full year forecast.

Haendel St. Juste (Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst)

That the incremental tailwind?

Barb Pak (CFO)

Sorry?

Haendel St. Juste (Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst)

You're saying that the expectations by year-end, is that the incremental benefit you expect in the back half of the year?

Barb Pak (CFO)

No, that's the assumption. We assume 2% for the full year. We're at 2.1% through the first 6 months of the year. We assume effectively 1.9% in the back half of the year to hit our 2.0% for the full year. It is an incremental improvement, the back half as well.

Haendel St. Juste (Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Point two. Got it. Got it. Okay. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question is from Robin Lu with Green Street. Please proceed with your question.

Rob Stevenson Stevenson (Managing Director)

Hi, thanks for taking my question. Just following up on a question earlier, what's the total magnitude of acquisitions you are hoping to achieve in the back half of this year?

Adam Berry (Company Representative)

Hi, Robin, this is Adam. At this point, our intention is to. Well, our, our guidance really is not to acquire anything in the back half of the year. Like I said, we've been underwriting everything, and if there are deals that make sense strategically, that fit in with our existing portfolio, whether through economies of scale or, or other methods, then we will focus more on those deals. For the moment, given our cost of capital, we wouldn't expect much on the acquisitions front.

Rob Stevenson Stevenson (Managing Director)

With, I guess, I guess in a scenario where there's minimal acquisitions and no development starts penciled, do you expect stock How does stock buybacks stack up in terms of near-term priorities for capital allocation?

Barb Pak (CFO)

Yeah, I mean, we did do stock buybacks in the first quarter. We will assess our sources of capital to do that, because we want to maintain our balance sheet strength and a leverage-neutral approach to the stock buyback. We would need a source of capital to continue to buy back the stock. That would imply that we would dispose of something. It will all depend on where we can find opportunities to add value to the bottom line, because at the end of the day, that's our goal on the external front, is how can we grow accretively? To Adam's point, it's hard to do it via acquisitions today. It doesn't mean that we're just going to go buy back the stock. We would need a source of capital to do that as well.

It'll all go into the mix.

Rob Stevenson Stevenson (Managing Director)

Appreciate that response. Then finally from me, can you give us a rough direction on what perentage of the $100 million outstanding delinquencies that you think you'll ultimately be able to collect?

Barb Pak (CFO)

Yeah, that's a, it's a great question. It's difficult to know. I mean, obviously, we'll, we'll get some of that, but. None of that is baked into our guidance for delinquency this year. You know, we are making progress collecting. The problem is, is until the courts get caught up, delinquency keeps accruing because we, we have tenants that are in our properties a lot longer than they were historically. You know, pre-COVID, if somebody went delinquent, they were out within two-three months, and now if they go delinquent, they're out in nine-12 months. So that's part of the compounding problem on the delinquency side and the cumulative delinquency side. In terms of what we're going to collect, I can't give you a number. It's just too hard to, to predict.

Rob Stevenson Stevenson (Managing Director)

Do you think it's closer to 10, 20% or towards 50%? I understand it's very hard to predict.

Barb Pak (CFO)

Yeah, I, I, I'm not going to throw out a number because it, it, it's just not something that we know with any sort of certainty at this point. We're working hard to collect every dime that we can. We've used all measures possible to go after these tenants who are delinquent and have delinquent balances, but it's, it's not a number I can throw out there.

Rob Stevenson Stevenson (Managing Director)

I appreciate that. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question is from Michael Goldsmith with UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Michael Goldsmith (Analyst)

Good afternoon. Thanks a lot for taking my questions. For the L.A. market, are you seeing any pressure from the writers or, and actor strikes, or does your guidance contemplate any impact from this?

Jessica Anderson (SVP of Operations)

Well, hi, this is Jessica. I'll speak to as far as the on-the-ground operations. We have not seen any impact from the strike at this point. We track our exposure to the major studios, it's less than 1% of our L.A. portfolio. I think it really comes down to how long the strike is gonna go on and if there's potentially a ripple effect to other industries. At, at this point, we do not seeing it have a material impact on our portfolio. Would have to go on for some time. There may be specific property impact, but not to the, the larger portfolio as a whole.

Michael Goldsmith (Analyst)

That's helpful context. For my follow-up question, when you look at the A versus B quality properties, are you seeing any differences in trends between them? Is there any differences in demand or, or tenant health and, and how that's trending between A versus B quality properties? Thanks.

Jessica Anderson (SVP of Operations)

This is Jessica again. As far as A versus B, we do not see a material difference in performance. It's more really location. Back to the whole suburban versus urban concept. The bulk of our portfolio is suburban, and we are seeing strength in our suburban market versus some of the urban properties. Really, I think that's attributed to supply as well. When we look at where we have concentrations of supply, it is in these urban locations, so Seattle CBD, Downtown LA, West LA, Downtown San Diego, and that's where we would see rents lag. Urban versus suburban i-is where we're seeing the difference.

Michael Goldsmith (Analyst)

Thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question is from Nathaniel Gould with Robert W. Baird. Please proceed with your question.

Nick Joseph (Managing Director & Senior Research Analyst)

Hey, good morning out there. Can you speak to what is driving the strength in San Diego, and which market or markets do you believe will be the next to see a rebound?

Jessica Anderson (SVP of Operations)

This is Jessica. Yeah, San Diego has been a phenomenal market for us. I think it benefited during the pandemic. It was a popular area to relocate to, rents were lower, and overall, great, great quality of life. As Angela mentioned earlier, there's some underlying employment industries that, that have strength there. San Diego has been very solid, and we expect it to continue to perform well. As far as other markets that I have my eye on that are showing signs of strength, go back up to the Bay Area with San Jose, just to reiterate what I'm seeing there, that's been a strong market for us.

Then when you, you couple that with the recovery as well, that we still anticipate with continued return to office and, and where we're at relative to pre-COVID rents, there's definitely an upside there, and then up in the Seattle area for, for similar reasons. Of course, we're gonna be facing some supply, headwinds there over the next year.

Nick Joseph (Managing Director & Senior Research Analyst)

Great. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. This does conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

Steve Sakwa (Analyst)

Goodbye.