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Elastic N.V. (ESTC)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 FY2025 delivered broad-based strength: revenue $388.43M (+16% YoY), Elastic Cloud $181.51M (+23% YoY), non-GAAP operating margin 15.3% and non-GAAP diluted EPS $0.47; management explicitly noted “we exceeded guidance across all revenue and profitability metrics” .
  • Results beat Wall Street consensus: revenue $388.43M vs $380.42M* and EPS $0.47 vs $0.37*; Q3 also beat (revenue $382.08M vs $368.88M*, EPS $0.63 vs $0.47*) and Q1 FY2026 beat (revenue $415.29M vs $397.33M*, EPS $0.60 vs $0.42*) . Consensus values marked with * are from S&P Global.
  • FY2026 guide initiated: Q1 FY2026 revenue $396–398M, non-GAAP op margin ~11.5%, EPS $0.41–$0.43; FY2026 revenue $1.655–$1.670B, non-GAAP op margin ~16%, EPS $2.24–$2.32 .
  • Strategic catalysts: five-year AWS SCA, NVIDIA collaboration, and acquisition of Keep to accelerate AI and security workflows; the company highlighted strong hyperscaler partnership momentum and AI differentiation (BBQ quantization, vector DB leadership) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • AI leadership and sales execution drove outperformance: “We exceeded guidance across all revenue and profitability metrics, demonstrating our leadership in Search AI” — CEO Ash Kulkarni .
  • Enterprise momentum: >1,510 customers with ACV >$100k (up from >1,460 in Q3); >210 customers over $1M ACV; strong expansion deals in observability and GenAI use cases .
  • Product innovation: BBQ quantization GA for more efficient vector DB; Serverless broadening GA regions; SIEM Attack Discovery improved efficacy; Google Vertex AI native grounding and AWS SCA deepening GTM .

What Went Wrong

  • U.S. public sector pressure: elongated sales cycles, especially federal civilian agencies, prompting conservative FY2026 guidance extrapolation .
  • Sequential consumption headwind in Q4 due to three fewer days in the quarter and leap-year compare; management cautioned on cloud seasonality patterns .
  • Monthly cloud (self-service SMB) remains flattish and expected roughly flat in FY2026, shifting focus to sales-led enterprise and high-potential mid-market metrics .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 FY2025Q3 FY2025Q4 FY2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$365.36 $382.08 $388.43
Elastic Cloud Revenue ($USD Millions)$168.84 $179.996 $181.507
Subscription Revenue ($USD Millions)$340.81 $358.20 $361.74
Services Revenue ($USD Millions)$24.55 $23.89 $26.69
GAAP Diluted EPS ($USD)$(0.25) $(0.16) $(0.16)
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.59 $0.63 $0.47
GAAP Operating Margin %(1.2)% (1.2)% (3.1)%
Non-GAAP Operating Margin %17.6% 16.8% 15.3%
GAAP Gross Margin %74.5% 74.6% 74.8%
Non-GAAP Gross Margin %76.9% 76.7% 77.0%
Operating Cash Flow ($USD Millions)$38.38 $88.06 $86.98
Adjusted Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)$37.66 $99.15 $84.86

Segment revenue mix

MetricQ2 FY2025Q3 FY2025Q4 FY2025
Elastic Cloud ($USD Millions, % of Total)$168.84, 46% $179.996, 47% $181.507, 47%
Other Subscription ($USD Millions, % of Total)$171.97, 47% $178.20, 47% $180.23, 46%
Services ($USD Millions, % of Total)$24.55, 7% $23.89, 6% $26.69, 7%

KPIs

KPIQ2 FY2025Q3 FY2025Q4 FY2025
Customers with ACV >$100k>1,420 >1,460 >1,510
Total Subscription Customers~21,300 ~21,350 ~21,500
Net Expansion Rate~112% ~112% ~112%
Total Deferred Revenue ($USD Millions)$645.71 $706.93 $852.46
Total RPO ($USD Millions)$1,266.07 $1,354.35 $1,545.41
CRPO ($USD Billions)~$1.0, +18% YoY

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Total RevenueQ4 FY2025$379–$381M N/AOutperformed (Actual $388.43M)
Non-GAAP Operating MarginQ4 FY2025~13.5% N/AOutperformed (15.3%)
Non-GAAP Diluted EPSQ4 FY2025$0.36–$0.37 N/AOutperformed ($0.47)
Total RevenueQ1 FY2026N/A$396–$398M Initiated
Non-GAAP Operating MarginQ1 FY2026N/A~11.5% Initiated
Non-GAAP Diluted EPSQ1 FY2026N/A$0.41–$0.43 (107.5–108.5M diluted shares) Initiated
Total RevenueFY2026N/A$1.655–$1.670B Initiated
Non-GAAP Operating MarginFY2026N/A~16% Initiated
Non-GAAP Diluted EPSFY2026N/A$2.24–$2.32 (109.0–111.0M diluted shares) Initiated

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2, Q3)Current Period (Q4)Trend
AI/Vector DB differentiation (BBQ, Rerank, embeddings)BBQ introduced; Rerank tech preview; strong GenAI adoption counts BBQ GA improvements; >2,000 cloud customers using GenAI; >310 ≥$100k; >25% of ≥$1M cohort using Elastic for GenAI Improving
Hyperscaler partnershipsAWS Partner of the Year; Vertex AI integrations AWS five-year SCA; Google AI Partner awards; Vertex AI native grounding Improving
Serverless adoptionGA on AWS; TP on Azure; early momentum GA footprint expanded; expected long-term revenue benefit Improving
Public sector demandMonitoring U.S. public sector; diversified strength elsewhere U.S. federal civilian constraints; pipeline otherwise healthy; global public sector strong Mixed
Observability/logsDB consolidationLogsdb index mode driving wins/up-tier Multi-year expansions; Frozen Tier, LogsDB, AI Assistant features cited Improving
Security SIEM & AI AssistantAttack Discovery interest/preview Attack Discovery GA; improved efficacy; adding security sales overlays Improving
Sales-led motion & metricsSegmentation changes paying off; million-dollar cohort growing New disclosure: subscription ex monthly cloud $315M (+19%); FY25 $1.195B (+20%) Improving
Cloud seasonalityAnticipated moderation vs Q4 patterns Fewer days headwind; emerging pattern of lower sequential growth in fiscal Q1 Stable pattern formation

Management Commentary

  • “We exceeded guidance across all revenue and profitability metrics, demonstrating our leadership in Search AI as customers continue to build Generative AI applications and consolidate onto our platform.” — CEO Ash Kulkarni .
  • “Subscription revenue excluding monthly cloud was $315 million, growing 19%… Our current remaining performance obligations… was approximately $1 billion and grew 18% year-over-year.” — CFO Navam Welihinda .
  • “We announced a new five-year strategic collaboration agreement with AWS… simplifying Elastic adoption on the AWS marketplace… and accelerate AI innovation.” — CEO Ash Kulkarni ; AWS SCA details .

Q&A Highlights

  • Guidance conservatism: CFO emphasized prudence given dynamic macro; extrapolated U.S. public sector constraints and potential consumption headwinds in Q2–Q4 FY2026 despite Q4 strength .
  • Cloud consumption dynamics: Three fewer days in fiscal Q4 created headwinds; normalizing days, cloud growth was mid-20s; emerging seasonality with lower sequential growth in fiscal Q1 .
  • Monthly cloud outlook: Expected roughly flat contribution in FY2026; focus on sales-led enterprise/commercial motion .
  • Security overlays and GTM: Adding security sales specialists to capture platform consolidation; validated FY2025 segmentation with strong million-dollar cohort adds .
  • AI/RAG durability and positioning: RAG viewed as durable; Elastic aiming to be the vector DB of choice; partnerships (AWS, Google) position Elastic at top of third-party services .

Estimates Context

How results compared to Wall Street consensus:

MetricQ3 FY2025Q4 FY2025Q1 FY2026
Revenue Actual ($USD Millions)$382.08 $388.43 $415.29
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD Millions)$368.88*$380.42*$397.33*
EPS Actual ($USD)$0.63 (non-GAAP diluted) $0.47 (non-GAAP diluted) $0.60 (non-GAAP diluted)
EPS Consensus Mean ($USD)$0.47*$0.37*$0.42*

Consensus values marked with * are from S&P Global.

Where estimates may need to adjust:

  • FY2026 revenue/EPS trajectory and Q1 margin (~11.5%) imply conservative top-line assumptions; if public sector headwinds don’t materialize broadly, upward revisions are plausible .
  • Cloud seasonality and day count effects should be reflected in intra-quarter models; management flagged patterns and emerging seasonality .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Elastic executed a clean beat-and-raise-style print for Q4 (beats vs consensus and vs prior guidance) while initiating prudent FY2026 guidance; AI leadership and enterprise expansion underpin visibility .
  • Watch subscription ex monthly cloud as the core sales-led KPI ($315M in Q4, +19% YoY) and CRPO (~$1B, +18% YoY) for near-term demand signals .
  • Partnerships are accelerating monetization paths: AWS five-year SCA, Vertex AI native grounding, and NVIDIA AI Factory collaborations expand distribution and performance advantages .
  • Serverless is a structural margin and adoption lever; expect gradual mix shift benefits and easier on-ramps for new logos and consolidations over time .
  • Public sector constraints drove guidance prudence; the diversified base (APJ/EMEA/Americas strength) and compelling cost-to-value could mitigate macro drag .
  • Security’s AI-driven features (Attack Discovery, AI Assistant) and SIEM migrations plus security sales overlays should support multi-product consolidation wins and up-tiering (Enterprise tier) .
  • Near-term trading: setup favors dips tied to conservative guide given multi-paths to top-end outcomes; medium-term thesis hinges on AI retrieval leadership, hyperscaler GTM, and enterprise consolidation monetization .

Additional relevant press releases (context/catalysts):

  • AWS five-year SCA (May 28, 2025) .
  • Collaboration with NVIDIA for recommended vector DB and GPU acceleration (May 19, 2025) .
  • Acquisition of Keep Alerting Ltd (May 21, 2025) to unify alerts and automate incident remediation .

S&P Global disclaimer: Consensus values in the Estimates Context section are retrieved from S&P Global.