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Elastic N.V. (ESTC)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 FY2025 delivered broad-based strength: revenue $388.43M (+16% YoY), Elastic Cloud $181.51M (+23% YoY), non-GAAP operating margin 15.3% and non-GAAP diluted EPS $0.47; management explicitly noted “we exceeded guidance across all revenue and profitability metrics” .
- Results beat Wall Street consensus: revenue $388.43M vs $380.42M* and EPS $0.47 vs $0.37*; Q3 also beat (revenue $382.08M vs $368.88M*, EPS $0.63 vs $0.47*) and Q1 FY2026 beat (revenue $415.29M vs $397.33M*, EPS $0.60 vs $0.42*) . Consensus values marked with * are from S&P Global.
- FY2026 guide initiated: Q1 FY2026 revenue $396–398M, non-GAAP op margin ~11.5%, EPS $0.41–$0.43; FY2026 revenue $1.655–$1.670B, non-GAAP op margin ~16%, EPS $2.24–$2.32 .
- Strategic catalysts: five-year AWS SCA, NVIDIA collaboration, and acquisition of Keep to accelerate AI and security workflows; the company highlighted strong hyperscaler partnership momentum and AI differentiation (BBQ quantization, vector DB leadership) .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- AI leadership and sales execution drove outperformance: “We exceeded guidance across all revenue and profitability metrics, demonstrating our leadership in Search AI” — CEO Ash Kulkarni .
- Enterprise momentum: >1,510 customers with ACV >$100k (up from >1,460 in Q3); >210 customers over $1M ACV; strong expansion deals in observability and GenAI use cases .
- Product innovation: BBQ quantization GA for more efficient vector DB; Serverless broadening GA regions; SIEM Attack Discovery improved efficacy; Google Vertex AI native grounding and AWS SCA deepening GTM .
What Went Wrong
- U.S. public sector pressure: elongated sales cycles, especially federal civilian agencies, prompting conservative FY2026 guidance extrapolation .
- Sequential consumption headwind in Q4 due to three fewer days in the quarter and leap-year compare; management cautioned on cloud seasonality patterns .
- Monthly cloud (self-service SMB) remains flattish and expected roughly flat in FY2026, shifting focus to sales-led enterprise and high-potential mid-market metrics .
Financial Results
Segment revenue mix
KPIs
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We exceeded guidance across all revenue and profitability metrics, demonstrating our leadership in Search AI as customers continue to build Generative AI applications and consolidate onto our platform.” — CEO Ash Kulkarni .
- “Subscription revenue excluding monthly cloud was $315 million, growing 19%… Our current remaining performance obligations… was approximately $1 billion and grew 18% year-over-year.” — CFO Navam Welihinda .
- “We announced a new five-year strategic collaboration agreement with AWS… simplifying Elastic adoption on the AWS marketplace… and accelerate AI innovation.” — CEO Ash Kulkarni ; AWS SCA details .
Q&A Highlights
- Guidance conservatism: CFO emphasized prudence given dynamic macro; extrapolated U.S. public sector constraints and potential consumption headwinds in Q2–Q4 FY2026 despite Q4 strength .
- Cloud consumption dynamics: Three fewer days in fiscal Q4 created headwinds; normalizing days, cloud growth was mid-20s; emerging seasonality with lower sequential growth in fiscal Q1 .
- Monthly cloud outlook: Expected roughly flat contribution in FY2026; focus on sales-led enterprise/commercial motion .
- Security overlays and GTM: Adding security sales specialists to capture platform consolidation; validated FY2025 segmentation with strong million-dollar cohort adds .
- AI/RAG durability and positioning: RAG viewed as durable; Elastic aiming to be the vector DB of choice; partnerships (AWS, Google) position Elastic at top of third-party services .
Estimates Context
How results compared to Wall Street consensus:
Consensus values marked with * are from S&P Global.
Where estimates may need to adjust:
- FY2026 revenue/EPS trajectory and Q1 margin (~11.5%) imply conservative top-line assumptions; if public sector headwinds don’t materialize broadly, upward revisions are plausible .
- Cloud seasonality and day count effects should be reflected in intra-quarter models; management flagged patterns and emerging seasonality .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Elastic executed a clean beat-and-raise-style print for Q4 (beats vs consensus and vs prior guidance) while initiating prudent FY2026 guidance; AI leadership and enterprise expansion underpin visibility .
- Watch subscription ex monthly cloud as the core sales-led KPI ($315M in Q4, +19% YoY) and CRPO (~$1B, +18% YoY) for near-term demand signals .
- Partnerships are accelerating monetization paths: AWS five-year SCA, Vertex AI native grounding, and NVIDIA AI Factory collaborations expand distribution and performance advantages .
- Serverless is a structural margin and adoption lever; expect gradual mix shift benefits and easier on-ramps for new logos and consolidations over time .
- Public sector constraints drove guidance prudence; the diversified base (APJ/EMEA/Americas strength) and compelling cost-to-value could mitigate macro drag .
- Security’s AI-driven features (Attack Discovery, AI Assistant) and SIEM migrations plus security sales overlays should support multi-product consolidation wins and up-tiering (Enterprise tier) .
- Near-term trading: setup favors dips tied to conservative guide given multi-paths to top-end outcomes; medium-term thesis hinges on AI retrieval leadership, hyperscaler GTM, and enterprise consolidation monetization .
Additional relevant press releases (context/catalysts):
- AWS five-year SCA (May 28, 2025) .
- Collaboration with NVIDIA for recommended vector DB and GPU acceleration (May 19, 2025) .
- Acquisition of Keep Alerting Ltd (May 21, 2025) to unify alerts and automate incident remediation .
S&P Global disclaimer: Consensus values in the Estimates Context section are retrieved from S&P Global.