Executive Summary

Q4 2024 Adjusted EBITDA rose 8% year over year to $3.88B on strong NGL and Midstream throughput; Distributable Cash Flow (as adjusted) was $1.98B, roughly flat versus prior year, while diluted EPS was $0.29 versus $0.37 in Q4 2023 .
Sequentially, Adjusted EBITDA was modestly lower versus Q3 ($3.88B vs $3.96B) as Crude and Interstate faced mix/price headwinds, offset by record volumes in multiple segments; management cited lower interruptible utilization and higher operating expense in Interstate and softer crude marketing as key drags .
2025 outlook: Adjusted EBITDA guided to $16.1–$16.5B and growth capex of ~$5.0B (maintenance ~$1.1B), with the majority of earnings growth ramping in 2026–2027 as projects come online; distribution raised to $0.3250 for Q4 (+3.2% YoY) .
Strategic catalysts: FID on the Hugh Brinson (ex-Warrior) Permian gas pipeline (Phase 1 1.5 Bcf/d by end-2026), CloudBurst data center gas supply deal (up to 450,000 MMBtu/d), and continued NGL export capacity additions (Nederland Flexport, Marcus Hook ethane) underpin multi-year growth and AI-driven demand themes .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- NGL & refined products Adjusted EBITDA increased to $1.11B (+$66M YoY) on higher throughput, fee escalators, and stronger export/loading activity at Nederland and Marcus Hook; marketing optimization also contributed .
- Midstream Adjusted EBITDA rose to $705M (+$31M YoY) on Permian-led volume growth and contributions from acquired assets, despite higher operating expense from integration and growth .
- Management highlighted data-center/power plant demand as a structural tailwind, noting an agreement with CloudBurst and growing inbound requests across the footprint; “we are the best positioned to capitalize” on rising gas demand for power and AI .
What Went Wrong
- Crude Oil Adjusted EBITDA dipped to $760M (-$15M YoY) as lower Bakken transportation revenue and reduced marketing earnings offset JV/acquisition contributions and higher gathering volumes .
- Interstate Adjusted EBITDA declined to $493M (-$48M YoY) driven by lower interruptible utilization, reduced parking revenue, and higher operating and SG&A costs; Citrus JV earnings were also lower YoY .
- Interest expense rose YoY ($807M vs $686M) with higher average debt balances and rates, weighing on net income attributable to partners ($1.08B vs $1.33B YoY) and diluted EPS ($0.29 vs $0.37) .

Financial Results

Consolidated results (oldest → newest)

Metric	Q4 2023	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Revenue ($MM)	$20,532	$20,772	$19,541
Net Income Attributable to Partners ($MM)	$1,327	$1,183	$1,077
Diluted EPS (per unit)	$0.37	$0.32	$0.29
Adjusted EBITDA ($MM)	$3,602	$3,959	$3,884
DCF (as adjusted) to Partners ($MM)	$2,030	$1,990	$1,978

Margins (calculated from reported figures)

Metric	Q4 2023	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Adjusted EBITDA Margin %	17.5% (calc from $3,602/$20,532)	19.1% (calc from $3,959/$20,772)	19.9% (calc from $3,884/$19,541)
Net Income Attrib. to Partners Margin %	6.5% (calc $1,327/$20,532)	5.7% (calc $1,183/$20,772)	5.5% (calc $1,077/$19,541)

Segment Adjusted EBITDA ($MM)

Segment	Q4 2023	Q4 2024
Intrastate Transportation & Storage	242	263
Interstate Transportation & Storage	541	493
Midstream	674	705
NGL & Refined Products	1,042	1,108
Crude Oil	775	760
Investment in Sunoco LP	236	439
Investment in USAC	139	155
All Other	(47)	(39)
Total Adjusted EBITDA	3,602	3,884

Selected KPIs (volumes)

KPI	Q4 2023	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Crude oil transportation (MBbls/d)	5,949	7,025	6,831
NGL transportation (MBbls/d)	2,162	2,237	2,262
NGL & refined products terminal (MBbls/d)	1,446	1,505	1,465
NGL fractionation (MBbls/d)	1,137	1,152	1,141
Midstream gathered (BBtu/d)	20,322	21,027	20,690
NGLs produced (MBbls/d)	976	1,094	1,134
Interstate transported (BBtu/d)	16,651	16,616	17,026
Intrastate transported (BBtu/d)	14,229	13,214	13,145

Capex and Liquidity

Metric	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Growth Capex ($MM)	549	724	1,220
Maintenance Capex ($MM)	223	359	309
Revolver Availability ($MM)	4,971 (6/30/24)	3,336 (9/30/24)	2,211 (12/31/24)

Context vs Estimates

Wall Street consensus from S&P Global was not retrievable at this time due to API rate limits; therefore, estimate comparisons (revenue/EPS/EBITDA beats or misses) are unavailable. Values would normally be retrieved from S&P Global; consensus data was unavailable for this report window.

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Adjusted EBITDA	FY 2025	N/A	$16.1–$16.5B	New
Growth Capex	FY 2025	N/A	~$5.0B	New
Maintenance Capex	FY 2025	N/A	~$1.1B	New
Distribution/Unit	Q4 2024 distribution	$0.3225 (Q3 2024)	$0.3250	Raised

Additional project timing (from call/press releases):

Nederland Flexport NGL export expansion: ethane/propane mid-2025; ethylene service Q4 2025 .
Hugh Brinson Pipeline (ex-Warrior): Phase 1 (1.5 Bcf/d) in-service by end-2026; potential Phase 2 to 2.2 Bcf/d; total cost for both phases ~$2.7B .
Mustang Draw processing plant (Midland Basin, 275 MMcf/d): in service 1H 2026 .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2 & Q3 2024)	Current Period (Q4 2024)	Trend
AI/data center & gas-fired power demand	Highlighted growing inbound interest: 45 power plants (6 Bcf/d) and 40+ data centers (up to 10 Bcf/d) requests across 10–11 states; building eight 10MW gas gen units for reliability .	Signed CloudBurst agreement (up to 450,000 MMBtu/d; up to ~1.2 GW behind-the-meter); >70 prospective data centers in 12 states; 62 power plant connection requests; ET “best positioned” .	Accelerating demand pull; first commercial AI data center gas deal.
Permian gas takeaway	Signaled near-term FID for “Warrior”; positioning to feed multiple TX hubs; WTG acquisition integration .	FID reached and renamed Hugh Brinson; Phase 1 by end-2026; Phase 2 could lift to 2.2 Bcf/d; $2.7B for both phases .	Thesis de-risked with FID and schedule.
NGL export capacity	Flexport expansion on track; Frac IX sanctioned (Q4’26 in-service); robust international demand .	Flexport mid-2025 (ethane/propane), ethylene late-2025; Marcus Hook ethane storage/chilling capacity addition underway; strong export fee uplift .	Capacity and contracting progressing; fee-based uplift.
Lake Charles LNG	SPA and progress referenced; targeting more contracts; favored by customers/location .	20-year SPA with Chevron for 2 mtpa signed Dec-2024; pursuing additional SPAs and equity; potential FID targeted in 4Q’25 .	Commercial momentum improving; timelines clarified.
Macro/Regulatory tone	Confidence post-election on permitting streamlining and LNG outlook .	Continued optimism on policy backdrop aiding project execution and LNG; reiterated confidence .	Supportive tone sustained.

Management Commentary

“We expect our 2025 Adjusted EBITDA to be between $16.1 billion and $16.5 billion… supported by our industry-leading business… with a significant growth trajectory through the end of the decade.”
“We have now received requests… from over 70 prospective data centers in 12 states… There’s no company in the United States that is close to us [as] well positioned to provide natural gas supply to many of these data centers…”
On returns: “We are always… targeting… mid-teens to upper teens rate of return… depending on the project…”
On capital allocation: “We’re still kind of staying with that 3% to 5% [distribution growth]… with all these projects… we’d love to see that moving up to the higher end of that range.”

Q&A Highlights

Growth capex detail and returns: ~~$5B 2025 spend across Intrastate (~~$1.4B), NGLs (~~$1.4B), Midstream (~~$1.6B), Crude (~$295MM), “mid-teen” returns targeted; majority earnings uplift ramps 2026–2027 as projects come online .
Commodity/spread assumptions: 2025 guidance based on forward curves; narrower Waha basis vs 2024 is a headwind, providing potential upside if spreads widen .
Data center deal cadence/size: CloudBurst is behind-the-meter; scalable towards 450,000 MMBtu/d; typical range for DC projects cited at ~600 MW–1.2 GW with outliers .
Lake Charles LNG: renegotiating legacy SPAs to reflect today’s cost regime; pursuing additional SPAs and an equity partner; aiming for FID in 4Q 2025 .
Capital returns: distribution growth maintained within 3–5% framework; buybacks remain on the radar but growth pipeline prioritized for long-term value .

Estimates Context

Consensus comparisons (revenue/EPS/EBITDA vs S&P Global estimates) were not available due to a temporary rate-limit on the S&P Global feed at the time of this analysis. As a result, we cannot characterize beats/misses for Q4 2024 or the near-term outlook in relation to Wall Street expectations in this report window.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Multi-year growth visibility: 2025 EBITDA guide of $16.1–$16.5B and ~$5B capex set the stage for a larger 2026–2027 ramp as major projects (Flexport, Frac IX, Hugh Brinson, new Permian processing) contribute .
Data center/power demand is real and monetizable: first commercial DC gas supply agreement, >70 DC inquiries, and strong utility requests position ET to capture several Bcf/d over time across its footprint .
Fee-based, diversified engine: NGL and Midstream strength offset softer Crude and Interstate; export/loading fees and rate escalators provide durable uplift .
Watch the spreads: Narrower Waha basis embeds conservatism in 2025; any tightening or optimization upside could bias results higher intra-year .
Distribution growth intact with balance-sheet flexibility: Q4 distribution lifted to $0.3250; management aims toward high end of 3–5% growth amid a robust project slate .
LNG optionality is improving: Chevron SPA and ongoing negotiations increase probability of Lake Charles FID by 4Q 2025, creating an additional long-dated growth vector .
Near-term trading setup: Lack of consensus context limits beat/miss framing; narrative catalysts revolve around project milestones (Flexport mid-2025 start), additional AI/data center agreements, and incremental contracting on Hugh Brinson .

Sources: Q4 2024 8-K earnings release and financials ; Q3 2024 8-K –; Q2 2024 8-K –; Q4 2024 earnings call transcript –; CloudBurst agreement press release ; Hugh Brinson (Warrior) FID press release ; Distribution increase press release ; Chevron Lake Charles LNG SPA press release .

Energy Transfer LP (ET)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary