EI
ETSY INC (ETSY)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q1 2025 revenue was $651.2M (+0.8% y/y), take rate reached a new quarterly high of 23.3%, and adjusted EBITDA margin was 26.3%; GAAP diluted EPS was $(0.49) due largely to a $101.7M non-cash impairment tied to Reverb .
- GMS declined 6.5% y/y to $2.8B; Etsy marketplace GMS fell 8.9% y/y to $2.3B, with habitual buyers down 11% and GMS per active buyer down 3.5% to $120 .
- Q2 2025 guidance: consolidated GMS decline similar to or slightly better than Q1, take rate similar to Q1, and adjusted EBITDA margin ~25% (reflecting higher marketing and people costs); guidance excludes Reverb sale impact .
- Management emphasized growing app engagement (app reached an all-time high 44.5% of Etsy marketplace GMS) and personalization via AI/ML; Depop delivered strong growth, and Etsy announced sale of Reverb for $105M cash post-quarter, focusing resources on Etsy/Depop .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- App engagement and conversion improved; the app reached 44.5% of Etsy marketplace GMS, with upward trends in MAUs and first-time downloads: “the app reached an all-time high of 44.5% of total Etsy marketplace GMS” .
- Take rate expanded 170 bps y/y to 23.3% on ads growth, seller setup fee, and payments expansion; adjusted EBITDA margin of 26.3% slightly exceeded expectations .
- Depop posted its strongest quarter since acquisition with notable U.S. momentum, supported by performance and mid-funnel marketing efficiency .
What Went Wrong
- Core Etsy marketplace GMS fell 8.9% y/y and active buyer metrics remained muted; habitual buyers declined 11% y/y and GMS per active buyer fell 3.5% to $120 .
- GAAP net loss $(52.1)M driven by a $101.7M goodwill impairment for Reverb; net loss margin was (8.0)% .
- Gross margin saw modest deleverage from higher ML/search compute and free shipping costs tied to the loyalty beta; marketing mix leaned more to paid social with lower ROIs than search/PLA, pressuring margins near term .
Financial Results
Consolidated Financials vs Prior Quarters
Segment Revenue Breakdown
KPIs and Operating Metrics
Guidance Changes
Notes: Guidance assumes FX at current levels and excludes impact from planned Reverb sale .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO: “the app reached an all-time high of 44.5% of total Etsy marketplace GMS… we’re creating truly personalized browsing and discovery journeys… genuinely game-changing for Etsy” .
- CFO: “we delivered a small beat on take rate and adjusted EBITDA margin… take rate improved to 23.3%… adjusted EBITDA margin 26.3%” .
- CEO on tariffs/agents: “just over 1% of GMS comes from U.S. imports… agents will offer choice… Etsy has something different… partnerships with leading GenAI providers” .
- President/Chief Growth Officer: “biggest opportunities… give shoppers more compelling reasons to choose Etsy… build a more personalized, more delightful shopping experience” .
Q&A Highlights
- Marketing mix: Greater spend in paid social (lower ROI than search/PLA), but improving efficiency; Q2 margin guide reflects higher marketing and compensation costs .
- App roadmap: Push to highly personalized browsable surfaces; aim to shift mobile web to app over time .
- Active sellers/buyers: New $29 seller setup fee intentionally reduced low-probability sellers; buyer softness attributed to macro vs churn; habitual buyers stable at ~42% of GMS .
- Gross margin headwinds: ML/search compute and free shipping in loyalty beta both modest headwinds; will continue but not dramatic .
- Tariffs/de minimis: Low direct exposure from China; watch for broader demand impacts and process changes if de minimis evolves .
Estimates Context
- Q1 2025 results vs S&P Global consensus: Revenue $651.2M vs $641.6M* (beat); Primary EPS (normalized) $1.21 vs $1.01* (beat). Etsy does not report non-GAAP EPS in the release; S&P’s Primary EPS represents normalized earnings. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
- Q2 2025 consensus: Revenue $647.6M*; Primary EPS $1.09*; Management guides Q2 adjusted EBITDA margin ~25% and similar take rate to Q1 . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Near-term: Revenue and adjusted EBITDA were resilient despite GMS declines; the impairment-driven GAAP loss is non-cash. Expect margin compression in Q2 on higher marketing and people costs, but take rate should remain elevated .
- Strategic: App-led personalization (“algotorial” + LLMs) is gaining traction; data flywheel from broader signal ingestion (ads + recommendations) should compound engagement/frequency .
- Ads monetization: On-site Ads and Payments continue to lift take rate; sustained efficiency gains can support monetization even in softer demand environments .
- Portfolio focus: Reverb divestiture streamlines capital allocation toward Etsy and Depop; Depop’s momentum provides diversification and growth optionality .
- Risk monitor: Macro discretionary softness and evolving tariff/de minimis policies could weigh on buyer frequency; management sees high replacement and low direct exposure to China but remains cautious on demand elasticity .
- KPI watch: Habitual buyer count and GMS per buyer remain pressured; app share and personalized engagement metrics are the leading indicators to track for inflection .
- Estimates: Street likely nudges near-term margin expectations lower in line with guidance while acknowledging revenue/Primary EPS beat; sustained take rate and ad momentum can support multi-quarter monetization if engagement improvements continue .
Citations: Press release and 8-K Q1 2025 ; Q4 2024 press release ; Q3 2024 press release . Earnings call transcript Q1 2025 .