Sign in

You're signed outSign in or to get full access.

EI

ETSY INC (ETSY)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 revenue was $672.7M, up 3.8% YoY, with consolidated take rate at 24.0%; Adjusted EBITDA was $169.0M (25.1% margin). GMS was $2.8B, down 4.8% YoY; Etsy marketplace GMS was $2.4B, down 5.4% YoY but improved sequentially vs Q1 .
  • Results vs consensus: revenue beat ($672.7M vs ~$647.6M*) while Primary EPS missed (actual $0.689* vs ~$1.090*); GAAP diluted EPS was $0.25 . Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
  • Management guided Q3 2025 GMS to $2.6–$2.7B, ~24.5% take rate, and ~25% Adjusted EBITDA margin; guidance explicitly framed as QoQ improvement “apples-to-apples” post-Reverb sale .
  • Catalysts: stronger take rate from on-site ads, app-led engagement gains (App GMS ~45%), Depop acceleration (GMS +35% YoY), and balance sheet flexibility after ~$700M convertible notes and $335M buybacks .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Strong revenue/take rate from Etsy Ads improvements and payments; take rate up 200 bps YoY to 24% .
    • App momentum: App GMS ~45% of Etsy marketplace, MAUs +7% YoY; app experience more browsable and personalized .
    • Depop strength: GMS $249.6M (+35.3% YoY), U.S. GMS +54% YoY; positioned as fastest-growing U.S. online fashion resale platform .
    • Quote: “Our take rate was very strong, at 24%, primarily driven by the expansion of Etsy Ads revenue…” — CFO Lanny Baker .
    • Quote: “We’re seeing early success… more browsable shopping experience… amplified by more personalized marketing and emergent AI technologies.” — CEO Josh Silverman .
  • What Went Wrong

    • GMS and buyers down YoY: consolidated GMS -4.8%; Etsy marketplace GMS -5.4%; active buyers -4.6% YoY to 87.3M .
    • Profitability pressure: GAAP net income margin 4.3% (down ~390 bps YoY) due to FX loss; Adjusted EBITDA margin down 260 bps YoY to 25.1% .
    • EPS optics: GAAP diluted EPS $0.25; Primary EPS missed consensus*; non-GAAP adjustments include excluding payroll tax on SBC from Adjusted EBITDA beginning Q1’25 .
    • Analyst concern: core Etsy EBITDA managed to “high-20s” (below 30%+) near-term; management is investing to reaccelerate growth (app, paid social, ML) .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$647.8 $651.2 $672.7
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.41 $(0.49) $0.25
Net Income ($USD Millions)$53.0 $(52.1) $28.8
Net Income Margin (%)8.2% (8.0)% 4.3%
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)$463.7 $459.1 $479.1
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)$393.5 $481.4 $402.7
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions, Non-GAAP)$179.4 $171.1 $169.0
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)27.7% 26.3% 25.1%
Consolidated GMS ($USD Billions)$2.95 $2.79 $2.81
Take Rate (%)22.0% 23.3% 24.0%

Segment/Revenue Mix

MetricQ2 2024Q2 2025
Marketplace Revenue ($USD Millions)$470.4 $468.2
Services Revenue ($USD Millions)$177.4 $204.5

Marketplace KPIs

KPIQ2 2025YoYSeq
Etsy Marketplace GMS ($USD Billions)$2.4 -5.4% +3.5 ppt vs Q1
Active Buyers (TTM, Millions)87.3 -4.6% -1.3%
Reactivated Buyers (Millions)6.5 +2.8% +1.3%
New Buyers (Millions)4.8 n/an/a
Habitual Buyers (TTM, Millions)6.1 n/an/a
GMS per Active Buyer (TTM, $)$120 -2.9% Stable
App Share of Etsy Marketplace GMS (%)~45% n/an/a

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Consolidated GMS ($USD Billions)Q3 2025n/a$2.6–$2.7 New range provided
Take Rate (%)Q3 2025“Similar to Q1 25” (23.3%) ~24.5% Raised vs prior baseline
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)Q3 2025~25% ~25% Maintained
Consolidated GMS (YoY trend commentary)Q2 2025“Decline similar to or slightly better than Q1 25” Actual -4.8% Delivered in-line/slightly better than guide

Management framed Q3 guidance as sequential improvement “apples-to-apples” at midpoint post-Reverb divestiture .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4 2024 and Q1 2025)Current Period (Q2 2025)Trend
App and DiscoveryApp share 42% in 2024; revamp homepage for inspiration; app improvements and Apple features (App Intents) in Q1 App MAUs +7% YoY; App GMS ~45%; more browsable UI; personalized email/push up to ~40% with plans near-fully personalized by YE Accelerating
Paid Social and Marketing MixScaled mid-funnel paid social in 2024; increased personalized direct marketing in Q1 Strong Paid Social with partners (Pinterest, Meta, TikTok); creator collective spend +~50% seq; PLA segmentation improved ROI Improving ROI/diversifying
AI/ML and Agentic ShoppingIntroduced “algotorial” collections using AI; integrated with AI shopping experiences (OpenAI Operator, Microsoft Copilot) Re-tooling ranking platform to leverage LLMs; early signals of agentic traffic; featured in Apple WWDC visual intelligence Building capability/early traction
Tariffs/MacroQ1 commentary: task force for tariffs; consumer volatility Consumer spend stabilized in May/June; favorable competitive dynamics in Google auctions Stabilizing macro; tactical tailwinds
Loyalty (Etsy Insider)Beta loyalty program with perks; testing economics V2 program by holiday; focus on rewards, free shipping with guardrails Iterating toward scalable economics
Depop Momentum2024 fastest-growing U.S. online resale; strong Q4 growth Q2 GMS +35.3% YoY; U.S. +54%; permanent CEO (Peter Semple); marketing acceleration in Q3 Accelerating U.S. growth
Balance Sheet & Capital Allocation2024 FCF conversion ~90%; buybacks reduced share count ~$700M converts; $335M buybacks in Q2; cash & investments ~$1.5B Enhanced flexibility

Management Commentary

  • “Second quarter GMS and revenue came in ahead of expectations, and adjusted EBITDA was in line with our guidance… take rate was very strong, at 24%… strengthened our balance sheet through a highly successful convertible notes offering… repurchased approximately $335 million of Etsy stock.” — CFO Lanny Baker .
  • “We’re seeing early success… more browsable shopping experience… amplified by more personalized marketing and emergent AI technologies.” — CEO Josh Silverman .
  • “We are retooling our ranking platform to more effectively leverage capabilities of large language models… deliver better search results… more diverse and engaging recommendations.” — President & Chief Growth Officer Kruti Patel Goyal .
  • “We currently expect Q3 consolidated GMS to be between $2.6B and $2.7B… take rate ~24.5% and adjusted EBITDA margin ~25%.” — CFO Lanny Baker .

Q&A Highlights

  • GMS trajectory and margin philosophy: Sequential GMS improvement driven by app adoption, personalized owned channels, Paid Social, and PLA optimization; core Etsy margins managed to “high-20s” with growth investments to re-accelerate revenue .
  • App acquisition and behavior: App increases LTV; pushing app adoption via mobile web prompts, email/push, and modest paid app marketing; gradual approach to acquisition spend .
  • Marketing ROI: Benefited from reduced competition in Google auctions (Amazon/Temu/Shein pullbacks) and segmentation tactics; diversifying spend earlier in discovery via social channels .
  • Agentic shopping: Early days; Etsy’s unique inventory positions it well; genAI to personalize landing experiences and broaden category exposure .
  • Loyalty program economics: Etsy Insider V2 aims for scalable economics (e.g., shipping benefits with guardrails; rewards on purchases), focusing on top buyers .

Estimates Context

Results vs S&P Global consensus (Primary EPS and Revenue):

MetricQ2 2025 Consensus*Q2 2025 Actual*Surprise
Revenue ($USD Millions)647.6*672.7*+$25.1M (Beat)*
Primary EPS ($)1.090*0.689*-0.401 (Miss)*

Notes:

  • GAAP diluted EPS reported by Etsy was $0.25 , which differs from S&P Global’s “Primary EPS” construct.
  • Values retrieved from S&P Global*.

Forward estimates context:

MetricQ3 2025 Consensus*FY 2025 Consensus*FY 2026 Consensus*
Revenue ($USD Millions)657.1*2,886.0*2,961.9*
Primary EPS ($)1.038*4.195*4.641*
EBITDA ($USD Millions)164.7*724.6*723.3*

Values retrieved from S&P Global*.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Revenue beat driven by Etsy Ads optimization and payments; take rate expansion to 24% underscores monetization strength even with YoY GMS declines .
  • Sequential marketplace stabilization: Etsy marketplace GMS improved vs Q1; app-led engagement (MAUs +7% YoY, App GMS ~45%) indicates product/marketing flywheel gaining traction .
  • Depop is becoming a meaningful growth vector (U.S. +54% YoY), with expanded Q3 marketing investments and a permanent CEO, supporting consolidated growth narrative .
  • Near-term margin trade-off is intentional: management prioritizes growth re-acceleration (app, Paid Social, ML) while managing core Etsy Adjusted EBITDA in the high-20% range .
  • Balance sheet optionality: ~$700M converts at 1.00% due 2030 and $335M Q2 buybacks provide flexibility to manage maturities and pursue repurchases and investments .
  • Q3 outlook signals QoQ improvement: GMS $2.6–$2.7B, ~24.5% take rate, ~25% margin — look for sustained momentum in app engagement, marketing ROI, and agentic shopping integrations .
  • Watch estimate revisions: Post revenue beat and guidance clarity, sell-side models may raise revenue/take rate assumptions but keep margins near ~25% as investment cadence persists*. Values retrieved from S&P Global*.

Appendix: Additional Data

Convertible Notes Details (June 12, 2025):

  • $650M 1.00% converts due 2030; initial conversion price ~$85.79; ~$150M of proceeds used to repurchase shares at $60.20; balance for general corporate purposes .

Cross-Period FX and Non-GAAP notes:

  • Q2 2025 GAAP net income was impacted by a $25.4M non-cash FX loss vs a $4.9M FX gain in Q2 2024 .
  • Beginning Q1 2025, payroll tax on SBC excluded from Adjusted EBITDA (immaterial prior period impact) .