Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
- Shift back to near-term growth initiatives: Etsy has rebalanced its product development efforts towards conversion-driving work that historically led to incremental GMS impact. This shift is expected to improve GMS performance beyond the first quarter of 2025 as these initiatives begin to yield results.
- Positive early results from loyalty program: The initial success of Etsy's loyalty program, "Etsy Insider," shows encouraging signs of increased purchase frequency among members. This indicates potential for higher buyer engagement and repeat purchases, contributing to future growth.
- Strong performance of Depop subsidiary: Depop achieved impressive GMS growth of nearly 32% year-over-year in 2024, making it the fastest-growing U.S. fashion resale player. This strong performance provides a significant tailwind to Etsy's consolidated GMS growth.
- Declining Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS): Etsy's consolidated GMS decreased by 6.8% year-over-year in Q4 2024 , and the company anticipates that first quarter consolidated GMS will decline at a rate similar to the year-over-year performance reported for Q4 2024. This indicates ongoing challenges in driving sales growth.
- Shift in Product Investment Strategy Impacting Near-Term Growth: In 2024, Etsy shifted its product development resources away from near-term GMS driving work to focus on longer-term initiatives, resulting in an opportunity cost of at least a few hundred million dollars in GMS. While they plan to rebalance in 2025, there's uncertainty whether this will effectively translate into improved performance.
- Challenges with Buyer and Seller Growth: Etsy experienced a decline in active sellers by 10% , and GMS per active buyer decreased by 3.5% year-over-year. The company acknowledges difficulties in growing its habitual buyer base , which is crucial for driving repeat purchases and sustaining growth.
Metric | YoY Change | Reason |
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Total Revenue | 72% increase (from $842.32M to $1,448.33M) | Total revenue’s dramatic growth in Q4 2024 can be attributed to strong performance across diversified revenue streams—including seasonal gains, higher transaction volumes, and additional revenue channels beyond traditional marketplace and services—building on improvements seen in previous periods. |
Operating Income (EBIT) | 34% increase (from $115.46M to $155.13M) | Despite the revenue surge, operating income grew more modestly as higher revenue was partly offset by increased operating expenses driven by elevated marketing spend and other cost pressures, a trend evolving from recent expense management strategies compared to Q4 2023. |
Net Income | 56% increase (from $83.27M to $129.91M) | Net income improved significantly thanks to better cost control and operational efficiency, though partial expense headwinds such as higher marketing and tax expenses still moderated earnings compared to the prior period’s base. |
Basic EPS | 67% increase (from $0.69 to $1.15) | The improvement in Basic EPS is driven by the higher net income as well as a reduction in weighted-average shares outstanding from share repurchase activities, which reinforced the positive earnings per share even amid rising expense pressures. |
Marketplace Revenue | 1.4% decline (from $615.83M to $607.24M) | A slight decline in Marketplace Revenue suggests modest pressure on the core transactional fees and GMS volume, possibly due to pricing adjustments or competitive dynamics, contrasting with overall strong revenue performance seen in other revenue segments. |
Services Revenue | 8% increase (from $226.47M to $244.89M) | Services Revenue’s moderate growth is largely driven by higher on-site advertising (with increased average price per click) and boosted shipping label revenue, reflecting enhanced performance of ancillary services such as those powered by Depop’s marketplace, a progression from previously established trends. |
Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
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Consolidated GMS | Q1 2025 | Expected to decline in the low to mid-single-digit percentage range year-over-year | Expected to decline at a rate similar to the year-over-year performance reported for Q4 2024 | no change |
Consolidated Take Rate | Q1 2025 | 22.3% | 23% | raised |
Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA Margin | Q1 2025 | 28% to 29% | 25% to 26% | lowered |
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
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GMS Trends | Q1–Q3 discussions focused on consolidated GMS declines (ranging from ~3.7% to 8.6% in core segments), segmentation issues and macro headwinds, with specific highlights on category performance and international vs. domestic trends. | Q4 emphasized a 6.8% YoY decline in consolidated GMS, partially due to a strategic shift prioritizing long‑term initiatives over short‑term growth, with a notable strong performance from Depop. | Consistent concern with GMS declines but with an evolving narrative that prioritizes long-term investments and segmentation improvements; the sentiment is shifting from reactive reporting to a strategic recalibration. |
Loyalty Program | Q1 mentioned the program as still in development focused on converting occasional buyers. Q2 described it as an invitation‑only beta targeted for occasional U.S. buyers. Q3 noted early beta feedback and seller/buyer interest with some concerns on margins. | Q4 highlighted encouraging early results in closed beta, with members showing increased purchase frequency and strong free shipping valuation, along with iterative development plans. | Evolving from early development to promising early-stage performance as the program matures. The focus is shifting from experimental testing to iterative improvement and scalability. |
Depop Growth and Market Position | Q1 noted solid YoY GMS growth and market positioning among value‑driven shoppers. Q2 reported U.S.-leaning growth with fee adjustments; Q3 emphasized more than 30% YoY growth supported by major marketing campaigns. | Q4 reported nearly 32% YoY GMS growth with the strongest performance since acquisition, especially in the U.S. where growth reached about 60% YoY, underscoring its role as a fast‑growing resale leader. | Consistently strong growth and positive sentiment. The narrative remains robust with increasing emphasis on the U.S. market and strategic importance within the portfolio, reinforcing its role as a key growth driver. |
Product Development Strategy | Q1 focused on increased experiments per engineer, ML initiatives and app development, while resource allocation involved selective hiring. Q2 and Q3 discussed shifting from incremental improvements towards bold integrated initiatives and balancing short‑term versus foundational investments. | Q4 detailed a pivot away from near‑term GMS‑driving work towards enhancing the overall customer experience, noting an opportunity cost but promising plans to rebalance focus in 2025. | A strategic evolution toward long‑term holistic improvements. While earlier periods emphasized rapid experimentation and efficiency, Q4 reflects a deliberate trade‑off prioritizing customer experience, with plans to reintroduce near‑term drivers later. |
Marketing Investment Effectiveness | Q1 stressed disciplined spending and ROI measurement with cautious optimism amid headwinds. Q2 highlighted a significant increase in performance marketing spend with testing new channels like paid social. Q3 provided insights on increased spend in performance and reactivation channels. | Q4 discussed reallocating spend from less‑efficient channels (like linear TV) to connected TV and paid social while leveraging ML to boost ad effectiveness and overall ROI. | A steady focus on ROI with an evolving channel mix. The messaging has moved from strict discipline to proactively shifting investments towards higher‑performing digital channels and ML‑driven optimizations. |
Macroeconomic and Consumer Uncertainty | Q1 underscored depressed consumer sentiment, declining discretionary spending and pricing pressures. Q2 mentioned a volatile environment with mixed external signals. Q3 highlighted persistent macro challenges including elections, reduced visit frequency, and tight budgets. | Q4 reiterated persistent consumer confidence challenges and highlighted that shoppers are “pinching every single penny,” reinforcing the need to focus on differentiation over competing on price. | Consistent external headwinds. The sentiment remains cautious, with macro uncertainty persisting across all periods, driving an emphasis on brand differentiation and quality as defensive strategies. |
Physical Gift Cards Initiative | No mention in Q1 and Q2. Q3 introduced the initiative as a gradually impactful revenue stream with retail marketing strategies and long‑term upside. | Q4 does not mention physical gift cards, indicating the initiative was not a focus in the latest period. | Emergent in Q3 then de‑emphasized in Q4. This topic briefly appeared but did not persist as a current focus, suggesting either strategic de‑prioritization or integration into broader gifting discussions. |
Share Repurchase Program | Q1 reported a repurchase of $158M with significant free cash flow conversion. Q2 and Q3 continued updates on repurchase amounts and remaining authorization, emphasizing a capital‑light model and high free cash flow conversion. | Q4 reaffirmed strong cash generation with over 90% EBITDA conversion to free cash flow, repurchased $260M during the quarter, and highlighted additional repurchase capacity under board authorization. | Steady and robust commitment to shareholder returns. The narrative has been consistent, with growing repurchase amounts aligning with strong free cash flow generation and a disciplined capital allocation strategy. |
Mobile App Engagement | Q1 highlighted that app users generate 75% more GMS and stressed the importance of increasing app penetration. Q2 reported the app driving 42% of GMS and noted a behavioral shift with more first‑time users downloading the app. Q3 emphasized higher lifetime spend from app users with initiatives adding friction to drive downloads. | Q4 maintained that the app is the highest converting channel, contributing over 40% of marketplace GMS, and projected that increasing app penetration could unlock up to a $1B GMS opportunity. | Consistently prioritized with growing optimism. The focus on app engagement remains strong, with evolving strategies to shift more traffic and purchases to the app, viewed as a key lever for accelerating long‑term GMS growth. |
Technology Investments | Q1 detailed ML-driven innovations like Gift Mode and improved shipping estimates, along with efforts to democratize machine learning. Q2 saw investments focused on AI and enhancing the app experience, while Q3 discussed revamping the app homepage and further ML integration. | Q4 emphasized a revamped navigation with an all‑new shop tab and expanded ML applications (including quality scoring and LLMs) to further personalize buyer experiences and improve search. | Increasingly ambitious and integral. Investments in app development and ML have grown progressively more sophisticated, reinforcing long‑term differentiation and improved customer experience. |
Marketplace Quality and Seller Regulation | Q1 introduced a seller setup fee to discourage low‑quality entrants and focused on removing non‑compliant listings. Q2 expanded on search improvements and seller onboarding fees to boost quality, while Q3 implemented tools like a seller dashboard for improving search visibility. | Q4 built on these initiatives with the introduction of a quality score integrated into search algorithms and more purposeful seller sign‑up friction to ensure high quality, aiming to create a “race to the top” among sellers. | Ongoing refinement with a clear quality emphasis. The strategy is consistent across periods with incremental improvements in both policy and technology to elevate marketplace quality and enhance buyer trust. |
Gifting Initiatives | Q1 launched Gift Mode with high‐profile marketing and significant PR impact, establishing gifting as a growth lever. Q2 reported steady growth in gifting GMS with product innovations like gift lists and reminder features. Q3 expanded gifting features including an enhanced Gift Finder and focused campaigns. | Q4 reinforced gifting as a strategic area by integrating gifting into the core discovery flow, emphasizing key occasions (birthdays, anniversaries, baby showers) and leveraging personalized offerings. | Consistent and expanding focus. Gifting initiatives have grown from an initial launch to an integrated, cross‑category strategic priority, with expanding product features and marketing emphasis driving incremental GMS growth. |
Competitive Positioning | Q1 highlighted differentiation by emphasizing unique, handmade offerings versus mass‑produced goods. Q2 stressed the human element and a focus on unique, higher‑value categories, while Q3 reiterated non‑price competition and quality-driven positioning. | Q4 reaffirmed that Etsy will focus on differentiation (quality, craftsmanship, and a unique value proposition) rather than competing solely on price or speed, citing over 100M unique goods as a key asset. | A consistent, steadfast strategy. Across all periods, the emphasis remains on differentiation over price wars, reinforcing Etsy’s brand identity and appealing to consumers seeking unique, high‑quality products. |
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Return to GMS Growth
Q: Will Etsy return to GMS growth by year-end?
A: Management is optimistic that GMS performance will improve after Q1, expecting benefits from prior investments to yield growth over time. Shifting product development back to near-term GMS-driving work should contribute to returning to GMS growth as the year progresses. -
Confidence in 2025 Outlook
Q: What gives confidence that 2025 will be better than 2024?
A: Unlike last year, Etsy is rebalancing efforts towards near-term conversion-driving initiatives while continuing foundational work. This balanced approach, along with easier comps and prior investments in gifting, is expected to enhance growth rates throughout 2025. -
Strategies to Drive GMS
Q: Can priorities offset consumer headwinds and drive incremental GMS?
A: Etsy is focusing on elevating its differentiation by highlighting unique, high-quality items rather than competing on price or speed. Investments in technology, like LLMs, help surface the best products, and creating more browsable spaces aims to enhance discovery and drive GMS growth despite market conditions. -
Active Seller Decline Impact
Q: Can GMS grow without increasing active sellers?
A: Although active sellers are down 10%, the percentage of sellers making sales has grown. Etsy believes the breadth of current selection is sufficient to support GMS growth, focusing on elevating and presenting this selection effectively to consumers. -
Mobile App Contribution
Q: How will app improvements contribute to GMS growth?
A: Etsy is encouraging mobile web users to switch to the app, accepting some short-term friction for long-term benefits. Increased app usage is expected to contribute significantly to GMS growth over time. -
Marketing Spend and ROI
Q: How will marketing initiatives influence spending and ROI?
A: Marketing spend will remain at a similar percentage of revenue as last year but may increase if ROI improves. Investments focus on following customers to new channels, optimizing mid-funnel opportunities, and enhancing machine learning to improve ad effectiveness, aiming to drive profitable growth. -
Tariffs and De Minimis Impact
Q: What is the impact of potential tariff changes on Etsy?
A: Etsy is less dependent on imports from China than competitors and may benefit if tariffs focus on Chinese goods. While 25% of U.S. purchases are imports, primarily from Europe, most items fall under de minimis thresholds. Etsy monitors developments closely but expects to be more resilient in such scenarios. -
Take Rate Considerations
Q: Would Etsy lower take rates to drive GMS growth?
A: Management doesn't see current take rates as a hindrance. Etsy Ads are neutral or positive for GMS, and most fees are optional. The focus is on creating value-added services that sellers opt into, supporting a sustainable take rate around 23% without needing reductions to stimulate growth. -
Habitual Buyer Shrinkage
Q: What factors are driving shrinkage in habitual buyers?
A: The decline is due to customers making slightly fewer purchases, not leaving Etsy. Life events like fewer weddings have caused headwinds. The loyalty program shows promise, with free shipping encouraging more purchases, and efforts focus on improving unit economics and reducing churn.