Executive Summary

Q4 2024 delivered record revenue of $147.5M (+165% YoY) and record net income of $12.3M; VMD rose to $44.0M (+113% YoY) and Adjusted EBITDA reached $18.9M, all above prior guidance ranges as enterprise carrier spend surged and agency demand strengthened .
VMM% moderated as expected with scale and a more competitive ad environment, ending Q4 at 29.9% (vs 30.4% in Q3), while management reiterated a high‑20s framework into 2025 given a quality-first strategy and selective retention of certain 1:1 consent practices post-vacatur .
Q1 2025 guidance calls for revenue of $155–$160M, VMD of $44–$46M, and Adjusted EBITDA of $19–$21M; CFO expects growth to normalize after Q1 as premium increases decelerate industry‑wide from 2024 levels .
Consensus estimates from S&P Global were unavailable at retrieval time; however, Q4 results exceeded the company’s prior Q4 guidance on revenue, VMD, and Adjusted EBITDA, providing a positive setup into Q1 2025 despite anticipated normalization thereafter .
Balance sheet strengthened to $102.1M in cash and no debt; management highlighted ongoing investments in AI/ML bidding and platform modernization to deepen ties with carriers and agents and sustain profitable growth .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Record Q4 and full-year performance; “we again exceeded guidance across all three of our primary financial metrics” (revenue, VMD, Adj. EBITDA), with Q4 revenue $147.5M, VMD $44.0M, Adj. EBITDA $18.9M, and OCF $20.1M . “We produced a record-level of revenue and net income, as well as a record-level of Adjusted EBITDA and operating cash flow” .
- Demand strengthened across channels: enterprise carrier spend up nearly 500% YoY; agency operations +65% YoY; auto vertical revenue +200%+ YoY to $135.9M . CEO cited “AI-powered bidding” and ~20% YoY consumer volume growth in Q4 at healthy margins as key drivers .
- Cash position improved to $102.1M (+23% vs Q3) with no debt; full-year OCF $66.6M and FY Adjusted EBITDA ~$58.2M underscore operating leverage and discipline .
What Went Wrong
- VMM% moderated as expected with scale and competitive advertising; Q4 VMM% was 29.9% vs 30.4% in Q3, and management guided to “high‑20s” VMM% as quality is prioritized .
- Growth expected to normalize after Q1 2025 as the industry’s premium growth decelerates vs 2024’s step‑ups; seasonality will also reassert (Q1→Q2 down low single digits, Q3 up mid‑to‑high single digits, Q4 down mid‑single digits) .
- Mix: “Other” revenue fell 74.7% YoY in Q4; home & renters grew 15% YoY, still recovering alongside broader P&C underwriting trends (home combined ratios improving but lagging auto) .

Financial Results

Summary metrics (GAAP unless noted)

Metric	Q4 2023	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Revenue ($M)	$55.705	$144.530	$147.455
Diluted EPS ($)	($0.19)	$0.31	$0.33
Net Income ($M)	($6.348)	$11.554	$12.306
Variable Marketing Dollars (VMD) ($M)	$20.668	$43.931	$44.023
VMM % (VMD/Revenue)	—	30.4%	29.9%
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	($0.886)	$18.783	$18.916

Segment revenue

Segment Revenue ($M)	Q4 2023	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Automotive	$44.985	$130.005	$135.930
Home & Renters	$9.821	$14.142	$11.298
Other	$0.899	$0.383	$0.227
Total	$55.705	$144.530	$147.455

Cash flow and liquidity

KPI	Q4 2023	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Operating Cash Flow ($M)	($0.792)	$23.614	$20.134
Cash & Cash Equivalents ($M, end of period)	$37.956	$82.841	$102.116

Q4 actuals vs prior company guidance (from Nov 4, 2024)

Metric	Prior Q4 2024 Guidance	Q4 2024 Actual	Commentary
Revenue ($M)	$131–$136	$147.455	Above high end
VMD/VMM ($M)	VMM $38–$40	VMD $44.023	Above high end (company shifted to VMD terminology)
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	$14–$16	$18.916	Above high end

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Revenue ($M)	Q1 2025	—	$155–$160	New
VMD ($M)	Q1 2025	—	$44–$46	New
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	Q1 2025	—	$19–$21	New
VMM % (implied/qualitative)	Q1 2025	—	~28–29% implied from guidance, per CFO	Qualitative color

Management expects growth to normalize after Q1 as premium increases moderate; they expect to hold VMM in the high‑20s and maintain EBITDA margins near current levels while investing in AI/technology through 2025 .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Q-2 (Q2 2024)	Q-1 (Q3 2024)	Current (Q4 2024)	Trend
AI/technology initiatives	Emphasis on AI-powered bidding; platform streamlining to drive efficiency and ROI	Continued benefits from bidding tech; site and agent platform releases improving development velocity	“AI-powered bidding solution” and broader AI tools cited for traffic scaling, quality, and operating leverage; smart bidding for carriers	Expanding scope and impact
Regulatory/legal (TCPA/FCC 1:1 consent)	Preparing for Jan 2025 1:1 consent; expect near‑term unpredictability and VMM pressure	Q4 guide reflected preparation; expected modest VMM pressure	Rule vacated; EVER retaining select changes to boost lead quality, with modest margin impact; carriers not demanding beyond legal compliance	From headwind to managed quality lever
Auto insurance macro	Recovery building; carriers reactivating campaigns, budgets, footprints	Enterprise spend up nearly 8x YoY; agents improving; hurricanes had temporary pauses	Premiums up >40% since 2022; carriers refocused on growth; growth to normalize post‑Q1 2025	Broad recovery; normalization ahead
Product performance/mix	Q2 auto +106% YoY; home +29% YoY	Q3 auto +202% YoY; home +30% YoY	Q4 auto +200%+ YoY; home +15% YoY; “Other” down 74.7% YoY	Auto strength persists; home improving slowly
Regional/state dynamics	Rate adequacy lagging in large states (e.g., CA 2025)	Hurricanes Helene/Milton – brief pauses; state openings continue	Most carriers/states healthy; some laggards remain; home improving underlying ratios	Steady improvement; watch laggard states
Capital allocation	Positive FCF; evaluating M&A to augment P&C focus	Cash build; M&A opportunistic; private InsurTech dislocation	$102.1M cash; considering tech investments, M&A, potential buybacks	Optionality rising with cash

Management Commentary

“We grew revenue by 74% year-over-year to cross the $500 million mark for the first time… increased Adjusted EBITDA to almost $60 million, and finished the year with over $100 million of cash on the balance sheet, and no debt.” — CEO .
“Revenue growth was primarily driven by stronger enterprise carrier spend… up nearly 500% from the comparable period last year. Our agency operations also grew 65% year-over-year in Q4.” — CFO .
“Our team grew consumer volume by nearly 20% year-over-year in Q4 at healthy margins… continued refinement and improvement of our AI-powered bidding solution.” — CEO .
“VMM… moderated as we progressed through the period, ending at 29.9% for the fourth quarter.” — CFO .
“We expect revenue [Q1 2025] to be between $155 million and $160 million… VMD… between $44 million and $46 million… adjusted EBITDA… between $19 million and $21 million.” — CFO .

Q&A Highlights

Growth cadence and normalization: Management expects strong Q1 then normalization as premium increases slow, with seasonal pattern resuming (Q1→Q2 down low single digits; Q3 up mid‑to‑high single digits; Q4 down mid‑single digits) .
Traffic operations and ML bidding: AI/ML bidding platform automation and tuning improved traffic scaling and margins; expanded channels unlocked as monetization recovered .
1:1 consent (vacated) strategy: EVER is retaining select practices that improved lead quality and consumer experience; CFO frames high‑20s VMM% through 2025 as acceptable trade‑off .
Capital allocation: With $102M cash, management contemplates tech investment, selective P&C‑aligned M&A, and potential buybacks while keeping EBITDA margins near current levels .
Free cash flow: Adjusted EBITDA remains a good proxy for operating cash flow; taxes modest in 2025; working capital timing can create Q/Q variability .

Estimates Context

S&P Global consensus estimates (revenue, EPS, EBITDA) were unavailable at retrieval time due to data access limits; as a result, we could not quantify beats/misses versus Wall Street consensus this quarter. We instead benchmarked results versus company guidance, where EVER exceeded the high end on revenue, VMD/VMM metrics, and Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2024 .
Where estimates are unavailable, near‑term estimate revisions likely bias upward for revenue, VMD, and Adjusted EBITDA given the magnitude of the Q4 guidance beat and Q1 guidance implying ~73% YoY revenue growth at the midpoint .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Execution remains strong: EVER materially beat its own Q4 guidance across revenue, VMD, and Adjusted EBITDA on the back of enterprise spend strength, agency recovery, and AI‑driven bidding efficacy .
Quality-over-quantity strategy: Retaining select 1:1 consent practices post-vacatur supports higher‑quality leads and sustainable carrier/agent ROI, with VMM% anchored in the high‑20s .
1Q setup favorable, then normalization: Q1 2025 guidance implies ~73% YoY revenue growth before growth moderates with industry premium deceleration; model for seasonality to reassert in 2025 .
Mix tailwinds continue in auto; home recovering more slowly: Auto remains the growth engine (+200%+ YoY in Q4); home improving but at a slower pace; “Other” declining as the business refocuses .
Operating leverage intact: EBITDA margins near ~12–13% with strong OCF and a $102M cash cushion enable reinvestment in AI/data and selective M&A without sacrificing profitability .
Watch state re‑openings and macro: Further state reopenings (notably CA) and carrier competitive posture are incremental upside variables; expect noise from seasonality and advertising competitiveness .
Tactical implication: Near term, narrative supports positive sentiment into Q1 print; medium term, investors should focus on sustainability of high‑20s VMM%, pacing of AI and platform monetization, and the cadence of carrier and agent budget expansions .

EverQuote, Inc. (EVER)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary