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Evercore Inc. (EVR)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 delivered Evercore’s strongest quarterly revenue since Q4 2021, with GAAP net revenues of $975.3M (+24% y/y) and adjusted operating margin of 22.2% (+653 bps y/y), capping the firm’s second-best year ever (~$3.0B adjusted net revenues) .
  • Profitability inflected: GAAP EPS rose to $3.30 (vs. $2.03 y/y) and adjusted EPS to $3.41 (vs. $2.02 y/y) as comp ratio fell ~560 bps y/y to 65.2% (adjusted), with non-comp ratio at 12.6% .
  • Mix quality improved: Advisory fees surged 29% y/y to $850M (second strongest quarter on record), while PCA/PFG had record years and Equities posted best revenue since 2016, supporting diversification beyond M&A .
  • 2025 setup constructive: Management highlighted strengthening backlogs, continued recruiting (144 IB SMDs; ~60 new senior bankers in 3 years), and aims for further margin improvement, while declaring a $0.80 dividend and signaling ongoing buybacks to offset dilution .
  • Estimates context: S&P Global consensus was unavailable at time of analysis; we cannot assess beat/miss versus Street for Q4 (see “Estimates Context”).*

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Broad-based revenue strength and operating leverage: Adjusted net revenues +24% y/y to $980.5M with adjusted operating income +76% and adjusted operating margin up 650 bps to 22.2% .
  • Advisory outperformance and market share gains: Q4 adjusted advisory fees $850M (+29% y/y), second strongest quarter on record; management believes market share increased again in 2024 .
  • Diversification and franchises scaling: PCA and PFG each had record years; Equities had strongest year since 2016; over 40% of revenues from non‑M&A sources on average over the past five years, including 2024 .
  • Quote: “2024 was Evercore's second best year ever for revenue with firm‑wide adjusted net revenues of just over $3 billion.” – CEO John Weinberg .
  • Quote: “We believe we are still in the early stages of recovery and expect it to gradually build throughout 2025 and beyond.” – CEO John Weinberg .

What Went Wrong

  • Other revenue softness in the quarter: Q4 adjusted other revenue fell 33% y/y to ~$24M on lower gains in the investment funds portfolio (hedge for deferred comp) .
  • Non-comp expenses grew with activity and hiring: Q4 adjusted non-comp costs +16% y/y; drivers included professional fees, occupancy, and travel; mgmt sees continued investment alongside expense discipline .
  • Underwriting sequential normalization: Q4 underwriting fees were $26M, down from Q3’s $44M (though +38% y/y), reflecting quarterly variability despite a healthier ECM backdrop .
  • Analyst concern: January announcements were slower industry-wide; mgmt still expects a gradual build through 2025 but flagged macro/regulatory watch items (e.g., FTC posture) .

Financial Results

Headline P&L and Margins (GAAP and Adjusted)

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Net Revenues ($mm, GAAP)$689.2 $734.2 $975.3
Net Revenues ($mm, Adjusted)$695.3 $739.5 $980.5
Diluted EPS (GAAP)$1.81 $1.86 $3.30
Diluted EPS (Adjusted)$1.81 $2.04 $3.41
Compensation Ratio (GAAP)66.6% 66.5% 65.6%
Compensation Ratio (Adjusted)66.0% 66.0% 65.2%
Operating Margin (GAAP)15.7% 16.6% 21.8%
Operating Margin (Adjusted)16.4% 18.2% 22.2%

Notes: Management emphasized sequential revenue increases each quarter in 2024 and a 280 bps improvement in FY adjusted operating margin vs. 2023 .

Revenue Mix (GAAP, $mm)

Line ItemQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Advisory Fees568.2 593.0 849.6
Underwriting Fees31.0 44.1 26.4
Commissions & Related53.2 54.6 58.0
Asset Mgmt & Admin Fees19.2 20.6 21.1
Other Revenue, net17.6 22.0 20.2
Net Revenues (sum)689.2 734.2 975.3

Selected KPIs

KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Total fees from advisory & underwriting transactions244 259 322
Fees ≥ $1mm (advisory & underwriting)95 112 159
Underwriting transactions (count)17 17 12
Underwriting as bookrunner (count)14 15 10
Wealth Mgmt AUM (period-end, $mm)$13,160 $13,887 $13,898

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Dividend per shareQ1 2025 payout$0.80 (Q3 declaration) $0.80 (declared Feb 4, 2025; paid Mar 14) Maintained
Adjusted comp ratio trajectory2025“Gradual improvement” commentary in 2024 “Striving to achieve meaningful improvement again in 2025” (no formal guidance) Qualitative improvement
Operating margin trajectory2025Margin progress, gradual improvement expected Continued gradual improvement near-to-medium term (no formal guidance) Qualitative improvement
Share repurchases2025Offset RSU dilution (prior years) Expect to repurchase shares > RSUs granted again in 2025 Reiterated policy

Note: Evercore does not provide formal revenue/EPS guidance; commentary focuses on backlog, activity outlook, margins, and capital return policy.

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 & Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
M&A backlog and macro“Gradual recovery, momentum builds across businesses” (Q2/Q3) Strongest revenue quarter since Q4’21; advising on large, complex deals; backlog strengthening into 2025 Improving
Regulatory environment (FTC/large deals)Noted recovery and pipeline breadth (Q3) Expect potential loosening of regulatory overlay; large deals a big part of backlog Constructive
Sponsors & PCA/PFGRecord PCA/PFG momentum building (Q3) Both PCA and PFG had record years; early 2025 pipeline strong; increased competition manageable Strong secular growth
ECM/IPOLead-left roles; bookrunner on tech IPOs (Q3) ECM revenue mix broadened; bookrunner on nearly all ECM; IPO market expected stronger in 2025 Building
EuropeExpansion and hires (Q3) European advisory momentum building; backlog strong for 2025, though lagging U.S. Gradual improvement
Talent/recruitingContinued SMD adds (Q2/Q3) ~60 new senior bankers over 3 years; 144 IB SMDs; 30 SMDs currently ramping Ongoing investment
Restructuring/liability mgmtActive earlier in 2024 (Q3 commentary) Second-best year ever; liability mgmt a key driver; elevated activity expected to persist Elevated

Management Commentary

  • Strategic positioning and revenue quality: “More than 40% of our total revenues were from non‑M&A sources [on average over 5 years and in 2024].” – John Weinberg .
  • Outlook and backlog: “We believe we are still in the early stages of recovery and expect it to gradually build throughout 2025 and beyond.” – John Weinberg .
  • Profitability focus: “In 2024, we made meaningful progress on our adjusted comp and non‑comp expense ratios…[driving] a 280 bps improvement in our adjusted operating margin vs 2023.” – CFO Tim LaLonde .
  • Capital return: “We remain committed to repurchasing shares to offset dilution…we would expect to [repurchase] again in 2025.” – CFO Tim LaLonde .

Q&A Highlights

  • Compensation ratio and margin trajectory: Management is “striving hard to achieve meaningful improvement again” in 2025; no formal guidance .
  • Recruiting and ramping productivity: Highly competitive environment; 30 SMDs ramping now; continue to add high-quality people to drive growth .
  • Large-deal environment & regulation: Expect loosening regulatory overlay to support larger transactions; large deals are a “big part of the backlog” .
  • Pull-forward and activity pace: Minimal pull-forward in Q4; January announcements slower industry-wide, but firm sees “gradual build” through 2025; tariffs/AI volatility not disrupting dialogues .
  • Restructuring outlook: Second-best year ever; liability management broadening the opportunity set; elevated activity levels can persist .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global (Capital IQ) consensus for Q4 2024 EPS and Revenue was unavailable due to a temporary access limit during retrieval; as a result, we cannot assess beat/miss versus Street for Q4.*
  • Implication: Absent consensus, we anchor on y/y and q/q trends—sequential revenue growth each quarter in 2024, strong advisory fees, and margin expansion—when considering estimate revisions risk .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Operating leverage is materializing: Sequential revenue growth and mid‑20s adjusted operating margin in Q4 suggest continued margin catch‑up as activity normalizes and newly hired SMDs ramp .
  • Mix improvement supports durability: Record PCA/PFG, stronger ECM roles, and best Equities year since 2016 diversify revenue beyond M&A, reducing cyclicality .
  • Backlog and large-deal exposure appear supportive: Management highlights strengthening backlogs and constructive regulatory backdrop for larger transactions—key catalysts into 2025 .
  • Watch expense trajectory: Non‑comp costs are rising with activity and investments; continued progress on comp ratio, while recruiting aggressively, is a critical margin swing factor .
  • Capital return remains a pillar: $0.80 quarterly dividend maintained; management expects 2025 buybacks to exceed RSU grants, supporting per‑share metrics .
  • Trading lens: Near-term, headlines on large deal announcements, ECM calendar/IPO windows, and activist/defense cycles are likely stock catalysts; any evidence of further comp ratio improvement or stronger ECM volumes should be positive.
  • Medium term: As ramping SMDs convert pipeline to fees and non‑M&A streams scale, EVR’s earnings power and margin structure should continue to normalize toward past cycle highs, barring macro/regulatory shocks .

*Estimates disclaimer: S&P Global consensus values were unavailable during this analysis window due to access limits; if desired, we can refresh and incorporate consensus when available.

Citations:

  • Q4 2024 press release and financials:
  • Q4 2024 8‑K (Item 2.02 and exhibits):
  • Q4 2024 earnings call transcript (remarks & Q&A):
  • Q3 2024 press release:
  • Q2 2024 press release: