EI
Evercore Inc. (EVR)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 delivered Evercore’s strongest quarterly revenue since Q4 2021, with GAAP net revenues of $975.3M (+24% y/y) and adjusted operating margin of 22.2% (+653 bps y/y), capping the firm’s second-best year ever (~$3.0B adjusted net revenues) .
- Profitability inflected: GAAP EPS rose to $3.30 (vs. $2.03 y/y) and adjusted EPS to $3.41 (vs. $2.02 y/y) as comp ratio fell ~560 bps y/y to 65.2% (adjusted), with non-comp ratio at 12.6% .
- Mix quality improved: Advisory fees surged 29% y/y to $850M (second strongest quarter on record), while PCA/PFG had record years and Equities posted best revenue since 2016, supporting diversification beyond M&A .
- 2025 setup constructive: Management highlighted strengthening backlogs, continued recruiting (144 IB SMDs; ~60 new senior bankers in 3 years), and aims for further margin improvement, while declaring a $0.80 dividend and signaling ongoing buybacks to offset dilution .
- Estimates context: S&P Global consensus was unavailable at time of analysis; we cannot assess beat/miss versus Street for Q4 (see “Estimates Context”).*
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Broad-based revenue strength and operating leverage: Adjusted net revenues +24% y/y to $980.5M with adjusted operating income +76% and adjusted operating margin up 650 bps to 22.2% .
- Advisory outperformance and market share gains: Q4 adjusted advisory fees $850M (+29% y/y), second strongest quarter on record; management believes market share increased again in 2024 .
- Diversification and franchises scaling: PCA and PFG each had record years; Equities had strongest year since 2016; over 40% of revenues from non‑M&A sources on average over the past five years, including 2024 .
- Quote: “2024 was Evercore's second best year ever for revenue with firm‑wide adjusted net revenues of just over $3 billion.” – CEO John Weinberg .
- Quote: “We believe we are still in the early stages of recovery and expect it to gradually build throughout 2025 and beyond.” – CEO John Weinberg .
What Went Wrong
- Other revenue softness in the quarter: Q4 adjusted other revenue fell 33% y/y to ~$24M on lower gains in the investment funds portfolio (hedge for deferred comp) .
- Non-comp expenses grew with activity and hiring: Q4 adjusted non-comp costs +16% y/y; drivers included professional fees, occupancy, and travel; mgmt sees continued investment alongside expense discipline .
- Underwriting sequential normalization: Q4 underwriting fees were $26M, down from Q3’s $44M (though +38% y/y), reflecting quarterly variability despite a healthier ECM backdrop .
- Analyst concern: January announcements were slower industry-wide; mgmt still expects a gradual build through 2025 but flagged macro/regulatory watch items (e.g., FTC posture) .
Financial Results
Headline P&L and Margins (GAAP and Adjusted)
Notes: Management emphasized sequential revenue increases each quarter in 2024 and a 280 bps improvement in FY adjusted operating margin vs. 2023 .
Revenue Mix (GAAP, $mm)
Selected KPIs
Guidance Changes
Note: Evercore does not provide formal revenue/EPS guidance; commentary focuses on backlog, activity outlook, margins, and capital return policy.
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- Strategic positioning and revenue quality: “More than 40% of our total revenues were from non‑M&A sources [on average over 5 years and in 2024].” – John Weinberg .
- Outlook and backlog: “We believe we are still in the early stages of recovery and expect it to gradually build throughout 2025 and beyond.” – John Weinberg .
- Profitability focus: “In 2024, we made meaningful progress on our adjusted comp and non‑comp expense ratios…[driving] a 280 bps improvement in our adjusted operating margin vs 2023.” – CFO Tim LaLonde .
- Capital return: “We remain committed to repurchasing shares to offset dilution…we would expect to [repurchase] again in 2025.” – CFO Tim LaLonde .
Q&A Highlights
- Compensation ratio and margin trajectory: Management is “striving hard to achieve meaningful improvement again” in 2025; no formal guidance .
- Recruiting and ramping productivity: Highly competitive environment; 30 SMDs ramping now; continue to add high-quality people to drive growth .
- Large-deal environment & regulation: Expect loosening regulatory overlay to support larger transactions; large deals are a “big part of the backlog” .
- Pull-forward and activity pace: Minimal pull-forward in Q4; January announcements slower industry-wide, but firm sees “gradual build” through 2025; tariffs/AI volatility not disrupting dialogues .
- Restructuring outlook: Second-best year ever; liability management broadening the opportunity set; elevated activity levels can persist .
Estimates Context
- S&P Global (Capital IQ) consensus for Q4 2024 EPS and Revenue was unavailable due to a temporary access limit during retrieval; as a result, we cannot assess beat/miss versus Street for Q4.*
- Implication: Absent consensus, we anchor on y/y and q/q trends—sequential revenue growth each quarter in 2024, strong advisory fees, and margin expansion—when considering estimate revisions risk .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Operating leverage is materializing: Sequential revenue growth and mid‑20s adjusted operating margin in Q4 suggest continued margin catch‑up as activity normalizes and newly hired SMDs ramp .
- Mix improvement supports durability: Record PCA/PFG, stronger ECM roles, and best Equities year since 2016 diversify revenue beyond M&A, reducing cyclicality .
- Backlog and large-deal exposure appear supportive: Management highlights strengthening backlogs and constructive regulatory backdrop for larger transactions—key catalysts into 2025 .
- Watch expense trajectory: Non‑comp costs are rising with activity and investments; continued progress on comp ratio, while recruiting aggressively, is a critical margin swing factor .
- Capital return remains a pillar: $0.80 quarterly dividend maintained; management expects 2025 buybacks to exceed RSU grants, supporting per‑share metrics .
- Trading lens: Near-term, headlines on large deal announcements, ECM calendar/IPO windows, and activist/defense cycles are likely stock catalysts; any evidence of further comp ratio improvement or stronger ECM volumes should be positive.
- Medium term: As ramping SMDs convert pipeline to fees and non‑M&A streams scale, EVR’s earnings power and margin structure should continue to normalize toward past cycle highs, barring macro/regulatory shocks .
*Estimates disclaimer: S&P Global consensus values were unavailable during this analysis window due to access limits; if desired, we can refresh and incorporate consensus when available.
Citations:
- Q4 2024 press release and financials:
- Q4 2024 8‑K (Item 2.02 and exhibits):
- Q4 2024 earnings call transcript (remarks & Q&A):
- Q3 2024 press release:
- Q2 2024 press release: