First BanCorp - Q4 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to First BanCorp's fourth quarter and full-year 2023 financial results. All lines have been placed on mute during the presentation portion of the call, with an opportunity for question and answer at the end. If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. I would now like to turn this conference call over to our host, Ramon Rodríguez, Senior Vice President of Corporate Strategy and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Ramon Rodríguez (SVP of Corporate Strategy and Investor Relations)

Thank you, Candice. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining First BanCorp's conference call and webcast to discuss the company's financial results for the fourth quarter and full-year 2023. Joining you today from First BanCorp are Aurelio Alemán, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Orlando Berges, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin today's call, it is my responsibility to inform you that this call may involve certain forward-looking statements such as projections of revenue, earnings, and capital structure, as well as statements on the plans and objectives of the company's business. The company's actual results could differ materially from the forward-looking statements made due to the important factors described in the company's latest SEC filings. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements made during the call.

If anyone does not already have a copy of the webcast presentation or press release, you can access them at our website at fbpinvestor.com. At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to our CEO, Aurelio Alemán.

Aurelio Alemán (President and CEO)

Thanks, Ramon. Good morning to everyone, and thanks for joining our earnings call today. I will begin by briefly discussing our business performance for the fourth-quarter first, then we'll move on to provide some high-level highlights for the full-year, and then share with you some of our priorities for 2024. Our fourth quarter results were highlighted by strong profitability and loan growth. We earned $79.5 million or $0.42 per share and generated a 1.7% return on assets. Our expenses for the quarter were impacted by a $6.3 million FDIC special assessment expense. Excluding this special item, the adjusted efficiency ratio was 52.2% for the quarter. The quarter also reflected higher provision expense and some, you know, incremental operating expenses, which Orlando will cover both in detail later.

The loan portfolio expanded by $233 million or 7.8% linked quarter annualized, driven by growth across all business segments, particularly the strong commercial and auto loan origination, as we continue to deepen our share in those markets. Core deposits contracted slightly by 2% as we continue to see a gradual erosion of excess liquidity out across our markets, and NPA decreased again to just sixty-seven basis points of total assets. We said for some time that credit metrics will grow gradually, move closer to historical levels as the positive impact of excess liquidity related to the pandemic stimulus on the consumer decreases.

We saw a little bit of that in the fourth quarter, actually, also in the third quarter, with the charge-off rate and loans in early delinquency for the consumer book registering a slight increase when compared to previous quarters. That said, our NPA and classified asset levels remain at multi-year lows, and our reserve coverage ratio is also very solid, and we continue to sustain and enforce our proactive risk management culture. Definitely, you know, we're ready to withstand any additional deterioration as those rates move closer to the norm. Finally, it was a great quarter in terms of our capital position.

Our tangible book value per share increased by 19%, and the TCE ratio improved to 7.7%, mostly driven by the favorable variance in the value of our bond book, given the reduction in market rates during the quarter. This was accomplished even while repurchasing $75 million in common shares, as we have indicated, and paying $24 million in dividends. Let's move to slide five to provide some highlights on the full-year. Definitely, you know, the 2023 performance showcased our attractive profitability and improved risk profile, even when, as we all know, operated in a challenging rate environment for our industry. Most importantly, it highlighted our capital management discipline and return flexibility. We generated 1.62% return on assets for the year and 41% return on equity, adjusted for the impact of the AOCL.

We added $628 million or 5.4% to the loan portfolio in the year, while deposits or the broker contracted by 1.7%. Our strong and diversified deposit franchise is evident by still healthy non-interest bearing ratio of 34% at the end of the year, and a loan-to-deposit ratio of 77%. This achievement supports our goal of delivering close to 100% of annual earnings to shareholders in the form of buybacks and dividends for the third consecutive year. As we mentioned before, this year marked—2023 marked our 75th anniversary, and we are very pleased on how our franchise was, has supported businesses, households, and ultimately the Puerto Rico economy and, and our market during this period.

by how we continue investing in our people, upgrading our product offerings and services, investing in technology, operations and infrastructure, and improving our operating leverage in the long run. I want to thank all my colleagues for their valuable contributions and dedication during the years, thank also our customers that we serve on a daily basis, our communities, and our shareholders for the support. As we look forward to 2024, we expect to continue our loan growth momentum, continue, you know, gaining market share and improving our loan book on what we consider is a stable economy across our markets, including Miami, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. Our goal is to, again, achieve mid-single-digit loan growth for the year organically.

However, we do continue to expect that average deposit balance will gradually come down in line with recent trends in the market as excess liquidity in the system decreases during the year. Our top priorities for the year, number one, will be to leverage the short duration of the investment portfolio to redeploy low-yielding maturity securities cash flow into higher-yielding assets. Also, actively, proactively managing credit, particularly on the consumer lending businesses. Finally, we continue to be very well-positioned to deploy our capital based on our healthy capital levels and our ability to consistently generate organic capital. We still have ample buyback capacity, with $150 million in buybacks left on our current authorization, and we will continue to monitor the general macro outlook and continue to execute the remaining buyback authorization during the year, beginning in the first quarter of this year.

Now, I will turn the call over to Orlando to go over the financial results in more detail, and we'll come back for questions later.

Orlando Berges (EVP and CFO)

Good morning, everyone. As Aurelio mentioned at the beginning of the call, we reported a $75.5 million gain for the fourth quarter. This is $2.5 million lower than the third quarter. However, earnings per share for the quarter were $0.46, which is the same we had on the third quarter. These results include a $6.3 million charge for the one-time FDIC assessment, as well as a $3 million gain on the sale of a banking facility in our Florida region. The provision expense for the quarter increased to $18.8 million as compared to $4.4 million last quarter.

As you may recall from last quarter's earnings call, the lower provision in the third quarter reflected the benefit of what we define as a less severe economic outlook on the third quarter than the one we had forecasted on the second quarter. This quarter, the outlook remains similar, so the increase was mostly related to the larger loan portfolios and the higher level of consumer charge-off to some extent. The income tax expense for the quarter was $5.4 million, which compares to the $27 million we had in the third quarter. The effective tax rate came down from 28.2% we had as of the third quarter to 23.5%.

As we ended up the year, conducting during the fourth quarter, several activities that were not previously forecasted and which have tax advantages under the Puerto Rico code. Also, we had a lower pre-tax income on the quarter, which also translated into a reduced tax. If we look forward, based on the current strategies that we have, we expect that the effective tax rate for 2024 will be around that 24% range, slightly under, slightly over, but it should be somewhere in that range. For the full-year, net income was full-year 2023, I mean, net income was $303 million.

It's pretty much in line with the $305 million we had in 2022, but earnings per share were higher at $1.71 compared to $1.59 we had the prior year. This is, you know, directly a result of the benefit of the lower share count due to the share buybacks we have been executing over the year and also in 2022. Also, as Aurelio mentioned, we delivered strong return on average assets again, 1.62%, and ROE was return on average equity was 23.7%, which if we adjust to eliminate the other comprehensive loss, would represent a 14.1%, both solid numbers.

In terms of net interest income, the quarter shows $196.7 million of net interest income, which is $3 million below the third quarter. The third quarter, however, did include $1.2 million we collected on a construction loan that had been charged off in prior years. Therefore, the reduction, the real reduction was $1.8 million. The interest income alone increased $6.1 million in the quarter, which was, to some extent, offset by $3.9 million decrease in other earning assets, mostly cash and securities, but interest expense grew by $5.4 million. The lending inside the interest income grew to $2.9 million in consumer and $2.1 million in commercial.

Most of the growth was in the, those two portfolios. Overall, however, even though loans increased during the quarter, total average earning assets did decrease by $269 million. In the quarter, we continued to see funding cost pressures, as the excess liquidity in the market has continued to decline, which resulted in decreases in retail and commercial core deposits, that excludes public funds. We also continue to see the impact of the shift from non-interest-bearing deposits into interest-bearing deposits. Even though when looking at the quarter, non-interest-bearing deposits declined only $36 million, in reality, the former $100 million decline we had in the third quarter impacted significantly the funding costs for the fourth quarter.

These deposits have been moving into time deposits, or other interest-bearing options, or ultimately, we have been replacing some of them with wholesale funding sources. To put in perspective, over the last six months of 2023, time deposits grew $153 million, and a large portion came from these deposits. On the other hand, during the quarter, we saw that the trend in the pace of core deposit cost increases has slowed down as market interest rates have stabilized. The average cost of interest-bearing checking and savings accounts other than public funds remained stable at 73 basis points when compared to the prior quarter. Also, we have seen deposit price-repricing pressures on the government deposits easing up.

The cost of these deposits increased only 14 basis points in the quarter, which compares to our 54 basis points increase we had in the third quarter. The increase in this quarter, in reality, was mostly a lag effect from last quarter repricing, since short-term market interest rates on average did not increase this quarter, which is indicator of the structure used for pricing government deposits. That said, we did have a $3.1 million increase in interest expense on broker and time deposits during the quarter as we increased our average broker deposits by $253 million and average time deposits by $85 million. The yield or the cost of non-broker time deposits increased twenty-six basis points during the quarter.

A lot has to do with also with maturing time deposits that get issued at new rates. The overall funding cost impact has been impacted by the pickup on the yields from the growth in the loan portfolios. Loans, as you saw the release, grew to $233 million in the fourth quarter and have grown $459 million since the end of the second quarter. Looking specifically at the yield in the fourth quarter, the loan yields increased 7 basis points. Margin for the quarter was relatively flat at 4.14, almost the same as last quarter, which was 4.15.

We have seen a change in the mix of earning assets resulting in higher yields, but that's been offset by the increase in the cost of funds. As we discussed last quarter with the assumption that market interest rate would stabilize or start to come down, we expected that the inflection point for net interest margin would happen somewhere between the end of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024, and we see that happening already. Assuming no meaningful changes to deposit balances, the net interest income should improve in 2024 as higher-yielding loans will be funded with the cash flows that are coming from the investment portfolio, which is a much lower yielding.

We estimate those cash flows for 2024 to be around $1 billion throughout the year. A good chunk comes in the second half because of maturity, but it's still throughout the full-year. Today, our interest rate forecast is fairly consistent with the forward yield curve, and our planning assumption is that future fed funds rate cuts will begin in April. That's what we've been using for the assumptions in the net interest margin and in the net interest income projections. Looking at other income, we had a $3.3 million increase to $33.6 million during the quarter. It was driven by a $3 million gain on the sale of a banking facility in Florida.

If we exclude this item, the other income was essentially flat versus the prior quarter. Expenses increased $10 million during the quarter, but was largely driven by that, the $6.3 million one-time FDIC Special Assessment. Excluding this item, adjustment expenses were $120.3 million, which results in an efficiency ratio of 52.2% during the quarter. Business promotion increased $2 million for the quarter, which related to year-end marketing efforts and completion of some of the activities of the 75th anniversary celebration, including some customer activities. And you also saw that, OREO gains decreased $1 million for the quarter.

In terms of expenses over the last few quarter, we have been guiding expenses to fall within $118 million-$120 million, excluding the benefit of the OREO gains. Looking at the fourth quarter, excluding the OREO, expenses fell above that range at $121.3 million. Looking at, you know, current pace and some of the strategies, accounting for some seasonality and things like payroll taxes, we believe that expenses for the first couple of quarters of 2024 to be in the range of $120 million-$122 million per quarter. The efficiency ratio should hover around that 52% that we just had.

In terms of asset quality, NPA decreased $4.3 million, $226 million, represent 67 basis points of our total assets. Most of the reduction relates to $7.7 million in collections and loans returned to accrual status in the commercial loan portfolios. That includes $2.7 million commercial real estate loan that accrued during the quarter. That this reduction was partially offset by a $3.3 million increase in the consumer nonaccrual loans. Total inflows to nonaccrual during the quarter were $35 million, which is $5 million less than the last quarter. It's net impact of some increases in consumer and decreases in the commercial portfolio.

However, loans in early delinquency, defined as 30-89 days, did increase by approximately $14 million, and it was mostly a $15 million increase in the consumer portfolios that we had in the quarter. In terms of the allowance, allowance ended up at $269 million, which is $1.8 million less than prior quarter. The coverage decreased slightly to 2.15. However, given the rise in the consumer loan delinquency and some of the charge-off impact, the ACL on just consumer did increase $3 million during the quarter to 3.64% of loans. Overall charge-off for the quarter were 69 basis points, as you saw in the release.

The ACL, you know, the allowance for credit losses, consistently with prior quarter is estimated using a combination of a baseline and a downside economic scenario. Therefore, we see they're providing very adequate coverage for any possible losses. In terms of capital, our ratios remain very strong, significantly well-capitalized. Most of the ratios either had a small decrease or a small increase, as the earnings generated during the quarter mostly compensated for the $75 million in share buybacks we executed during the fourth quarter and the $24 million in common dividends that were paid. Total GAAP equity increased to $1.5 billion.

Basically, the improvement in interest rates and the overall environment resulted in a $212 million increase in the fair value of available-for-sale securities, and therefore reduced the other comprehensive loss adjustment. And tangible book value per share, as a result, increased by 19% to $8.54, and the tangible common equity ratio increased to 7.7%. Still, when you look at the remaining other comprehensive loss adjustment, it represents approximately $3.74 in tangible value per share and over 300 basis points in the tangible common equity ratio. Assuming rates remain stable, we will continue to recover this other comprehensive loss based on the short duration of our investment portfolio.

And as we have mentioned in prior calls, we continue to reiterate our intention and our ability to retain this investment through maturity. With that, I would like to open the call for questions. Thanks.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. If you feel your question has been answered at any time and you'd like to withdraw it, it's star followed by two. And as a reminder, if you are using a speakerphone, please remember to pick up your handset before asking your question. So that's star followed by one to ask your question. So our first question comes from the line of Timur Braziler of Wells Fargo. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Timur Braziler (VP of Equity Research)

Hi, good morning.

Orlando Berges (EVP and CFO)

Good morning, Tim.

Aurelio Alemán (President and CEO)

Good morning.

Timur Braziler (VP of Equity Research)

Starting on the deposit side, I'm just wondering how costs trend now that the lag effect of public funds is in the rearview. You mentioned excess liquidity in your prepared comments a couple times. I'm just wondering, can you frame what you consider excess liquidity remaining on your deposit base? As that exits, is the expectation that it's backfilled with broker deposits, and then all in, kind of, what does that mean for deposit pricing and costs as we go through the first couple of quarters of 2024?

Orlando Berges (EVP and CFO)

Well, in terms of cost, clearly, what I mentioned in the call, in the remarks, it's that we with rates being stable as we have seen over the last couple of months and the possibility of rates coming down, we believe that we're going to start seeing cost reductions in the market in terms of deposits. The only questions continues to be still there could be some shift. We have a strong 34% non-interest-bearing ratio to total deposits, non-interest-bearing deposit to total deposits. And we could still see a little bit, although that's slowed down a lot in the quarter, that migrates to higher cost.

Not all the time deposit portfolio has repriced, you know, still some of the older things are coming due, and that should be some of the other side of the impact on the cost. But clearly on most of the non-interest-bearing—I'm sorry, interest-bearing savings and checking accounts—we're there and government repricing shouldn't change much based on these rates. In terms of the excess liquidity, it's that obviously, what we have seen is the market—

Aurelio Alemán (President and CEO)

Yeah, market contracted, overall market, Puerto Rico main market contracted about 3% in the first three quarters overall market of about 3% of the overall.

In 2023.

Deposits contracted about 7% in the Florida market. So, you know, when we say excess liquidity, you know, we really talk about, you know, there was a significant incremental liquidity that took place during the pandemic in 2021 and 2022. Actually it started in 2020. That started, you know, obviously normalizing in 2023, and we probably expect a few more quarters of that normalization on the deposit, which is customers using that liquidity that they had in the accounts, and they've been buying more or consuming more. And, well, it's based on that data that we do expect, you know, that liquidity to be utilized. It was larger, the contraction in the U.S. than in Puerto Rico.

But also, if on a per capita basis, you know, the pandemic brought, you know, more money into Puerto Rico residents than actually the U.S. on a per capita basis. Yeah.

Timur Braziler (VP of Equity Research)

Okay, thanks for that. And then maybe pulling it all together and looking at NII trajectory in anticipation of a forward,

Aurelio Alemán (President and CEO)

Mm-hmm.

Timur Braziler (VP of Equity Research)

... in anticipation of kind of modeling in the forward yield curve, forward rate curve. We have inflection in 1Q, you're assuming rate cuts begin in 2Q. Can you give us a sense of what NII trajectory looks like as we go through the year?

Orlando Berges (EVP and CFO)

Well, in terms of outward percentages, we haven't given specific guidance, but yeah, we're assuming that there is gonna be a pickup on the margin going up with those assumptions on the way the market rates move. Again, it goes back to the $1 billion in securities that will cash flows that would come in in 2024. Those securities are yielding less than 1.5%. That would be replaced with the lending side. The consumer lending portfolio, it's a fixed-rate portfolio, as well as most of the CRE portfolio. So those will continue to be there.

But assuming rates move as expected, you know, we're talking, you know, conversations of 4-5 rate cuts in the year, should also lower the cost of deposits that would compensate for that. And the wholesale funding components are short-term nature, so they would be replaced with shorter, I mean, lower rates. Therefore, we're assuming that net interest margin should start picking up going forward. The one caveat on the deposits is that obviously, you know, the non-interest bearing component, we saw more stability in the fourth quarter. But if it changes a little bit the dynamics, but still the overall, I believe, trend would be as I just mentioned, with some improvements in margin.

Aurelio Alemán (President and CEO)

Actually, and the other component-

Timur Braziler (VP of Equity Research)

Great. Thanks-

Aurelio Alemán (President and CEO)

We have a larger portfolio starting the quarter than we had the prior quarter, in terms of the loan portfolio size. Yeah.

Timur Braziler (VP of Equity Research)

Got it. That's good color. Thank you. And then just last from me, looking at credit, we're continuing to see a normalization of the consumer, it seems like, from a charge-off standpoint. I guess, A, how close are we to reaching what you ultimately expect to be a normalization in net charge-offs? And then looking at the allowance ratio, that's moved lower every quarter in 2023. Is that a sign of confidence around broader credit, and could it ultimately get back to a level pre-pandemic in the 1.7s again?

Aurelio Alemán (President and CEO)

Yeah, yeah. You know, first, I think we, you know, we probably have a couple of more quarters of this consumer normalization, closer to mid-year, we'll guess. On the other hand, you know, remember that charge-off on consumers, they don't accumulate. You know, so they move to charge-off very quickly, so they cycle pretty quickly. So the ACL, you know, the allowance that you state is a function of, you know, what remains on the portfolio. And obviously, the coverage you see on the provision every quarter, if we have to increase the coverage or not, to absorb the losses.

So, you know, we haven't done a projection on that matter, but, you know, as of today, you know, obviously, if you take it by product, you know, obviously, the mortgage business, you know, it's showing much better metrics than pre-pandemic, as you mentioned, commercial also. And consumer still not getting there in most of the products, which, you know, we manage the book as a one large book, which is now $3.6 billion. So under that, auto is the primary, and it's still, you know, registering, you know, much better performance in terms of charge-off rate than we had, you know, pre-pandemic.

Orlando Berges (EVP and CFO)

Yeah, it's what you're seeing is the commercial side is behaving very well. So we have seen some of that reduction coming on the commercial portfolios as you have seen on the release, the consumer side has increased in the allowance coverage only because of this trend. You mentioned a 1.7 or something in the call. I don't remember what you-

Aurelio Alemán (President and CEO)

Heard that number.

Orlando Berges (EVP and CFO)

-what you're referring to, but we can discuss more. We were above 1.7, if you were talking about ACL, pre-pandemic. So we can discuss, you know, later if you want, a little bit of those ratios.

Timur Braziler (VP of Equity Research)

Great. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Alex Twerdahl of Piper Sandler. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Alex Twerdahl (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Hey, good morning.

Orlando Berges (EVP and CFO)

Morning, Alex.

Kelly Motta (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Morning, Alex.

Alex Twerdahl (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Orlando, with respect to your NII and your NIM guidance, which I think you said is inclusive of rate cuts, what if we don't get rate cuts? Is the repricing on the asset side, do you think, sufficient to fully offset, you know, deposit, I guess, continued deposit pressure?

Orlando Berges (EVP and CFO)

I believe so, Alex. Remember that a significant portion of the pressure we saw on the rate pricing in the market was for growing deposits. If rates stay where we are, it shouldn't be, you know, similar—that repricing shouldn't be similar to what we faced in the past. The only repricing on the deposit side would definitely come from the maturing time deposits. Still, that is a manageable one, but once you consider that, the lending portfolio, it's larger, it has a yield above 7%. And I mean, on the commercial side, it's gonna be a little bit less combined, but it's still a very ample yield.

And the fact that that the investment portfolio, as I mentioned, continues to run off, and it's a very low yielding, we should definitely be able to still increase the margins, assuming those components.

Alex Twerdahl (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Okay. And then, you know, you kind of alluded a little bit to sort of the yield on commercial loans. Can you just give us a sense for, you know, it, like, what sort of spreads are like down there right now? You know, we've seen a pretty big pullback in the five year, and I think some bank managements are saying that customers are demanding that, and others are saying that they've got pricing power. I'm just kind of curious, where you're able to put on new production in Puerto Rico.

Orlando Berges (EVP and CFO)

The overall yields on the commercial portfolio, on the portfolio, on the general loan portfolio, it's about 7.73% as of the... for the third quarter. The spreads, we continue to price similarly, which are based on market rates. So we try to sustain a spread according to internal profitability models that we want to achieve, on each case, considering, you know, operating expenses and things like that. So you'll see, depending on the kind of loan and the kind of pricing, somewhere between 2.5% and 3.5% spreads, but it all depends on the terms and, and the nature of the facility. So over market terms, I'm assuming, or market rates.

So, you know, the consumer side, we continue to see, you know, on the auto, yields above 8%. Credit card, it's priced out of prime rate, so it's, you know-

Alex Twerdahl (Managing Director of Equity Research)

The-

Orlando Berges (EVP and CFO)

in the 16%-18% range. And obviously, residential, we do exactly the same as you see in the marketing in the U.S. But we are not adding too much in terms of portfolio on the residential side, so the average yields on that portfolio are about, you know, 5.70 or 5.80 on the overall portfolio. And that should stay somewhere in there because of the movement of the new cases. The repayments are upsetting, you know, a lot of what we put in and the new things we put in.

Alex Twerdahl (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Great, thanks. Then I guess just final question for me, just as I think about capital and capital generation, and, you know, Aurelio, you, I think, mentioned in your prepared remarks, third year of a 100% payout. And you think about the growth down in Puerto Rico, it seems like the, you know, the growth that's available, even though it's picked up a lot, is probably still not sufficient to utilize the full amount of capital that you guys generate every year. So is it fair to assume a 100% payout with respect to dividend buyback in the near term should continue?

Orlando Berges (EVP and CFO)

Yes, it's a fair assumption. Yes, that's correct.

Alex Twerdahl (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Perfect. Thanks for taking my question.

Orlando Berges (EVP and CFO)

Yeah. Yes. Okay, thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. As a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. Our next question comes from the line of Kelly Motta of KBW. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Kelly Motta (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Hi, good morning. Thanks for the question. I might-

Orlando Berges (EVP and CFO)

Oh.

Kelly Motta (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Circle back to the loan growth side of things. I appreciate the color that you are budgeting or looking for mid-single-digit growth, but it sounded like you were optimistic that perhaps you could do more. One, is that the right interpretation? And two, where do you see—could you see opportunities to do better, or conversely, you know, where might there be more pressure?

Aurelio Alemán (President and CEO)

... Yeah, you know, obviously, the mix, if you look at the three prior years, you know, we have achieved double-digit growth in the consumer. You know, we expect that demand to reduce a little bit. Obviously, the larger the portfolios, you know, the repayments are larger too. So when you combine, you know, demand and repayments, so we don't see double-digit growth in the consumer world this year. On the other hand, we do have the construction portfolio, so we see, you know, we experience, you know, mid-single digit in the commercial overall, when we add the disbursement that we expect next year in the construction. So that should actually be larger than that.

And then mortgage, you know, we see basically, you know, an almost flat year as we have achieved, you know, in the most recent quarter. So definitely there are, you know, we look for opportunities to do better than that, but, you know, obviously, when we look at, you know, all the noise around the world and rates, I think rates will, you know, could improve that. So we'll see how markets move and how the rate cuts, you know, motivate, you know, that incremental investments for us to continue to participate. So that. But obviously, you know, we're sticking with our guidance on mid-single. Obviously, we'd like to do better.

Kelly Motta (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Got it. Helpful—that's helpful. And clearly, this quarter, growth was impacted by Metro pieces. Just wondering, appreciate the color overall about where new commercial production yields are coming on. Just wondering if that kind of larger loan was, you know, noticeably different than where commercial loans are being typically priced right now, just to be mindful of modeling it as we head into 1Q.

Aurelio Alemán (President and CEO)

No, it was on the same. It was, in fact, I think that's probably gonna—you can get to the high side of the range that Orlando mentioned.

Ramon Rodríguez (SVP of Corporate Strategy and Investor Relations)

Yes.

Aurelio Alemán (President and CEO)

Right, yeah.

Kelly Motta (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Got it.

Aurelio Alemán (President and CEO)

Yeah. Uh-

Kelly Motta (Managing Director of Equity Research)

All right.

Aurelio Alemán (President and CEO)

And then the pipeline is. I have to tell you, the commercial pipeline is very healthy. You know, definitely you know, some projects on the reconstruction side for housing, so, you know, supported by CDBG, you know, some acquisition of businesses, expansion of businesses. So we, you know, today we see the pipeline, you know, as a healthy one, if we compare to what we saw the last quarter or so. So obviously, as we said, always the $150 million loan was a one-off loan, not the usual loan that we do every quarter. But what we're seeing of volume additionally to continue sustaining, you know, the level of commercials that we did last year. Yeah.

Kelly Motta (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Got it. Maybe a last housekeeping question for me. Seems like the repricing of the securities is going to be a big part of the story, as we head through this year. Can you remind us what about where those securities are rolling off at? Is it, you know, just similar to where average security yields are now?

Aurelio Alemán (President and CEO)

Well, the average yield on those securities are not on a non-taxable equivalent basis, it's about 1.5%. So that's basically the average of what's rolling off, should be close to that.

Kelly Motta (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Appreciate it. I'll step back. Thank you so much for the color.

Aurelio Alemán (President and CEO)

Thank you, Kelly.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. As there are no additional questions waiting at this time, I'd like to hand the conference call back over to Ramon Rodríguez for closing remarks.

Ramon Rodríguez (SVP of Corporate Strategy and Investor Relations)

Thanks to everyone for participating in today's call. We will be attending KBW's Financial Services Conference in Boca on February 15th, Bank of America's conference in Miami on February 21, Raymond James Institutional Investor Conference in Orlando on March 5. We look forward to seeing a number of you at these events, as we greatly appreciate your continued support. Have a great day. Thank you.

Aurelio Alemán (President and CEO)

Thank you.

Ramon Rodríguez (SVP of Corporate Strategy and Investor Relations)

Thank you, all.

Operator (participant)

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining us on today's call. Have a great rest of your day. You may now disconnect your line.