First Commonwealth Financial - Earnings Call - Q1 2025

Executive Summary

• Q1 2025 results were broadly in line on EPS but softer on revenue: diluted EPS was $0.32 (vs S&P Global consensus $0.321, in line) and S&P operating revenue was $112.1M vs $117.6M consensus (miss), driven by lower noninterest income and day-count seasonality while provision remained modest. S&P Global estimates shown with asterisks are from S&P Global.
• Net interest margin expanded 8 bps sequentially to 3.62% as deposit costs fell to 1.99% despite 7.7% annualized end-of-period deposit growth; management now expects NIM to reach the “high-3.70s” by year-end on three Fed cuts (or “high-3.80s” with no cuts), aided by expiring macro swaps.
• Asset quality improved: net charge-offs dropped to 0.14% (annualized) and nonperforming loans declined sequentially; ACL/loans held at 1.32%.
• Operating expenses rose above internal expectations (to $71.1M) on incentive true-ups and weather, prompting a new 2025 run-rate guide of $71–$73M per quarter; dividend was raised 3.9% to $0.135.
• Strategic update: FCF closed its CenterBank acquisition on April 30 and completed systems conversion in early June, adding Cincinnati density and modest NIM upside (1–2 bps), with loan growth still targeted at mid-single-digits for 2025.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

• What Went Well
  • NIM and funding: NIM rose 8 bps to 3.62% as deposit costs fell 8 bps to 1.99% even while deposits grew; management sees continued NIM expansion through swap roll-offs and replacement yields.
  • Credit trends: NCOs improved to 0.14% (from 0.61% in Q4) and NPLs declined; criticized loans fell $33.7M QoQ, with ACL coverage steady at 1.32% of loans.
  • Strategic progress: CenterBank close adds talent and a commercially focused franchise in Cincinnati; management cites expected efficiency and margin benefits post-conversion.
• What Went Wrong
  • Fee revenue softness: Noninterest income fell $2.8M QoQ on lower SBA gains and seasonality; management flagged Durbin headwinds ($3.5M/quarter) but noted offset from service charges, wealth/insurance, and swaps.
  • Expenses above plan: Noninterest expense of $71.1M exceeded prior $60–$69M guide due to ~$1.5M incentive true-up and ~$0.7M higher snow removal, prompting a higher 2025 run-rate guide.
  • Revenue miss vs consensus: S&P operating revenue of $112.1M came in below $117.6M consensus; lower fee income and only modest NII growth offset a helpful provision backdrop. S&P Global values marked with asterisks.

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Hello, and thank you for standing by. My name is Regina, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to the First Commonwealth Financial Corporation First Quarter 2025 Earnings Release Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. If you'd like to ask a question during this time, simply press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, press star one again. I'd now like to turn the conference over to Ryan Thomas, Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Ryan Thomas (VP of Finance and Investor Relations)

Thank you, Regina, and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today to discuss First Commonwealth Financial Corporation's first quarter financial results. Participating on today's call will be Mike Price, President and CEO; Jim Reske, Chief Financial Officer; Jane Grebenc, Bank President and Chief Revenue Officer; Brian Sohocki, Chief Credit Officer; and Mike McCuen, Chief Lending Officer. As a reminder, a copy of yesterday's earnings release can be accessed by logging on to fcbanking.com and selecting the Investor Relations link at the top of the page. We have also included a slide presentation on our Investor Relations website with supplemental information that will be referenced during today's call. Before we begin, I need to caution listeners that this call will contain forward-looking statements.

Please refer to the forward-looking statements disclaimer on page three of the slide presentation for a description of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those reflected in the forward-looking statement. Today's call will also include non-GAAP financial measures. Non-GAAP financial measures should be viewed in addition to, and not as an alternative for, our reported results prepared in accordance with GAAP. A reconciliation of these measures can be found in the appendix of today's slide presentation. With that, I will turn the call over to Mike.

Mike Price (President and CEO)

Hey, thank you, Ryan, and good afternoon, everyone. First Commonwealth met consensus estimates with $0.32 of core earnings per share in the first quarter of 2025. Our return on assets of 1.14% in the first quarter was down from 1.23% in the fourth quarter as expenses rose and fee income fell. Loans grew at an annualized rate of 4.4%, or $99 million in total. Commercial loans accounted for $63 million, or 64% of the overall quarterly increase. Equipment finance and indirect auto lending both contributed meaningfully. The pipeline and growth momentum continue into April. Net interest margin at 3.62% rose eight basis points with good fundamentals. Deposit costs fell to 1.99%. Interestingly, deposit costs continue their downward march even as we grew deposits at an annualized rate of 7.7% using end-of-period figures.

As a team, we have remained focused on improving our liquidity as our loan-to-deposit ratio has decreased from 97%-92% over the last two years. As Jim will further describe, the NIM should benefit from macro swaps that are coming off throughout the remainder of 2025. Credit is expected to continue to improve assuming stable economic conditions. Key trends are good, including NPLs, watch, OAEM, substandard, and criticized categories, all of which peaked in the second or third quarter of last year. They have fallen as we have resolved problem credits throughout the last two quarters. The team continues to closely watch the financial health of consumers, which comprise roughly 68%-70% of U.S. GDP and about 40% of our lending business. At this time, the First Commonwealth consumers appear to be in good shape.

The tariff uncertainty and the prospect of a resurgence of inflation have roiled financial markets over the last several weeks. Importantly, the return of inflation would also further weaken consumers and business households. Fee income was down $1.5 million in the first quarter of 2025. We are encouraged that the $3.5 million hit each quarter to interchange income due to the Durbin Amendment after crossing $10 billion in total assets has largely been absorbed by good momentum with other fee businesses, namely service charges, gain-on-sale businesses, trust, insurance brokerage, and swap income. Our efficiency ratio rose to 59.08%, up from 56.07% in the fourth quarter. Expenses increased $2.1 million to $71.1 million in the first quarter. Salaries and wages were the primary cause, and more specifically incentive compensation. Total FTE has also drifted upward as we continue to invest in our regional banking teams alongside our equipment finance group.

We view these investments as critical components of becoming the best bank for business. Center Bank will legally close at the end of April and could provide a boost to efficiency and margin. We've picked up some good talent and are genuinely excited about the strategic fit that Center Bank brings to a market that is already well-led and ripe for growth. The board of directors approved a dividend increase of $0.005 per share, consistent with prior years, bringing our dividend yield and payout ratio to approximately 3.5% and 40%, respectively. The announcement of tariffs on almost every country has led to uncertainty and the concern that a trade war, if sustained, could lead to disruptions of global supply chains, renewed inflation, and an economic slowdown. We saw initial signs of this strain with the preliminary GDP figures this morning.

Our bankers have actively reached out to clients over the last several months to gauge the impact of tariffs on their businesses and identify early signs of stress. Generally, our clients have been less fazed by the administration's actions than we might have initially expected. On balance, while most commercial clients would prefer a more tailored approach, many believe that tariffs may ultimately benefit their businesses. For example, the steel sector has been a vocal supporter of the tariffs and believes they are necessary to remain competitive. On the flip side, other sectors have expressed concern over the tariffs. These include polymers, manufacturing, aluminum, coal production, and chemicals. A positive reflection is that many businesses have taken steps to secure supply chains and can pass on increased costs through price escalators because of their experience gained during the pandemic.

Although tariff uncertainty could create loan growth headwinds, our pipelines remain strong, and we have not identified any specific credit impacts yet. On the regional lending front, our Northern Ohio, Pittsburgh, Central Ohio, Cincinnati, and community PA markets are off to terrific starts. An interesting aside, the country's largest natural gas power plant, alongside an AI data center, is being constructed in Indiana County, our home county in western Pennsylvania. At 4.5 GW, the plant could power Manhattan and is expected to cost more than $10 billion. This is from a Wall Street Journal article on April 2. These types of projects are springing up throughout our markets, not all $10 billion, but they are creating jobs and revitalizing economies. Good sign and good for our home county. Anyway, with that, I'll turn it over to Jim.

Jim Reske (EVP, CFO, and Tresurer)

Great. Thank you, Mike. Mike, I already mentioned the expansion of our NIM. Let me start there. Our previous guidance was for NIM to be relatively flat in Q1, followed by expansion in the remaining three quarters of 2025. We were quite pleased to see eight basis points of expansion last quarter. We had thought that the need to grow deposits to fund our loan growth would hinder our ability to bring deposit costs down, but that was not the case. Deposit costs fell by eight basis points even as we grew deposits. On the asset side of the balance sheet, fourth quarter Fed rate cuts continued to be felt in the first quarter in our variable rate loan portfolio. That was blunted somewhat by the fact that new loans were coming on in the low sevens, while loans that ran off were in the high sixes.

That's why our loan yield was only down five basis points last quarter. By contrast, the yield on the securities portfolio was up 15 basis points, partly as a result of a small securities restructuring that we did in January, using the gains from the sale of our remaining Visa stock, as we had previously disclosed. Purchase accounting marks from the Center Bank acquisition added five basis points to the NIM in the first quarter, unchanged from last quarter. We expect that will continue to fade by about one basis point per quarter. In terms of forward NIM guidance, our new baseline forecast contemplates three Fed rate cuts, up from two in last quarter's forecast. In that scenario, we'd expect our NIM to expand to the high 370s by the end of the year, give or take a few basis points as always.

If there are no cuts at all, we'd expect the NIM to expand another 10 basis points from there to the high 380s by the end of the year. That gives you a sense of the impact of the rate cuts. About seven basis points of the NIM expansion that we expect comes from the expiration of macro swaps, with $150 million expiring tomorrow, an additional $25 million expiring in the third quarter, and $75 million in the fourth quarter of this year, and then finally an additional $175 million expiring in 2026. Moving on to loan growth, our previous guidance for mid-single digit loan growth remains unchanged. Now to fee income. Fee income was down from last quarter by $2.6 million.

We had about $1.4 million of unusual gains last quarter, along with a decline of about $600,000 in the first quarter related to the fewer number of days in the quarter, which we expected. That combination of $2 million, that swing of $2 million, was fully expected. More fundamentally, our SBA gain on sale income was down by about $1 million from last quarter, offset somewhat by a $500,000 increase in our insurance and wealth income. Our fee income of $22.5 million actually came in right in the middle of our previous guidance of $22 million-$23 million for the quarter.

We expect that second quarter fee income should be roughly should be better than the first quarter, about $1 million better than the first quarter, or roughly $23 million-$24 million, growing another $1 million in the third quarter, and then coming down by about $1 million in the fourth quarter, which we attribute to seasonality in fee businesses like mortgage. Expenses increased by $2.1 million over last quarter, and at $71.1 million, were well in excess of our previous guidance of $68 million-$69 million for the quarter. As disclosed in our earnings release, first quarter results included about $1.5 million in expense for finalizing incentive payments related to the prior year. We also had a $700,000 increase in snow removal costs, which were higher than expected. Salary expense was up slightly, more than expected, on higher headcount.

Taking all of this into account, we believe that, including the pending acquisition of Center Bank, which closes today, non-interest expense should be in the $71 million-$73 million range for the rest of the year. Capital ratios benefited from a reduction in AOCI from $102 million to $81.2 million, as well as retained earnings. Our tangible book value per share grew 16.3% annualized from the previous quarter and 7% annualized even without the AOCI. There was no buyback activity in the first quarter pending the closing of the Center Bank acquisition. We have $6.7 million of remaining capacity under our previously authorized buyback program. With that, we'll take any questions you may have.

Operator (participant)

At this time, I'd like to remind everyone, in order to ask a question, press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. We'll take our first question from the line of Daniel Tomeo with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Daniel Tomeo (Analyst)

Hey, good afternoon, guys. How are you?

Mike Price (President and CEO)

Good.

Daniel Tomeo (Analyst)

I guess first on the loan growth guide, it sounds like things are still kind of moving in the right direction. I mean, even more than that, it was a good quarter. Zeroing in, I guess, specifically on the equipment finance portfolio, just curious the momentum that you've been seeing there, if you think that continues from here. If we did go into some kind of slowdown, just curious how you think that portfolio would react from a growth and also from a credit perspective.

Mike Price (President and CEO)

So far, so good on credit. We might have seen some pull-through just because of the anticipation of tariffs, and perhaps that has increased the volume in the first three to four months of the year. We'll see. We are seeing pretty healthy application volume now well into April. Actually, I have Mike McCuen on the phone, who is our Chief Lending Officer. Mike, what would you add?

Mike McCuen (EVP and Chief Lending Officer)

I would just add that part of the investment you referenced, Mike, was additional talent in the equipment finance group. We have also benefited a little bit. Some of the larger foreign-owned finance teams' groups have pulled back from the market. That has probably helped us a bit too. We have not seen a let-up yet in the application growth. It is still pretty strong.

Mike Price (President and CEO)

Is that helpful, Dan?

Daniel Tomeo (Analyst)

It is, Mike. Thanks. Yeah. Maybe on a similar vein, but just different book, the commercial books, the CRE, as well as the traditional commercial. Just curious if you gave some color on borrower sentiment in your comments. Just curious if you had anything else in terms of what you're seeing from them in terms of pull-through rates and how they're reacting to the whole uncertainty in Washington and tariffs and everything else, and kind of your expectation for near-term versus back half, if there's a difference in terms of where loan growth could land.

Mike Price (President and CEO)

Yeah. I'll hand it off to Mike. I would say we have seen some pull-through there on equipment. We're seeing commercial real estate more active than it certainly was this time last year. The pipeline there is pretty good. The construction book in commercial real estate is starting to build. I mean, we've been very intentional about wanting to grow the C&I book. We feel like we're starting to have some success there with even larger credits. We've built out our talent in the regional teams with two new presidents within the last 12 months or so, and probably at least half a dozen to a dozen additional lenders, PM professionals. That feels really good. Mike, what would you add?

Mike McCuen (EVP and Chief Lending Officer)

Yeah. I would just add that really the momentum started to feel good in the fourth quarter, the mood swang. The pipelines were building. We are benefiting from activity that was generated in the fourth quarter. We have not seen a let-up. The real estate developers have a little bit better view on cost. Rates were slightly down. Some projects that were deferred are now being put in place. These are longtime customers of ours in our markets that we know extremely well. That part of it, we feel pretty good about. I think the mood has not totally changed on the future, but our eyes are wide open based on what happens with the tariffs and so forth. We have not seen a let-up yet. Feel pretty good.

Mike Price (President and CEO)

Hey, Dan, the only thing I would add that we did not mention is just Jane Grebenc, Mike, and I are out on a number of calls. We just thought customers seem to be way ahead of us in terms of their supply chain. Perhaps if they are getting tungsten from China or this product from Europe, they have already thought of how to deflect it to another country or to a domestic supplier. I think a lot of that came from the challenges that came with COVID. Even if it was a smaller family-owned business, it is not that they anticipated it or it would not hurt, but they just seem to be dealing with it in the normal course, despite the headlines of the last month.

Daniel Tomeo (Analyst)

That's great color, Mike. Thanks for that. Maybe just a last one here on deposits. It looks like the growth in the quarter is really driven by the savings segment there. Curious if there was anything unusual happening there, if you guys had just any color on that and what kind of rates, the kind of new rates on the savings deposits that you're seeing.

Mike Price (President and CEO)

Yeah. I mean, I'll turn it to Jim and Jane. It just seems like we've given up a little on the beta because we want to keep growing deposits. If you remember, in the last cycle, we used the beta in the later stages to drive down our deposit costs. We just haven't gotten there yet. We still want to grow deposits and be more liquid. We probably have given up a little bit on rate and could have taken our deposit costs down a little quicker. It's also just a culture of deposit gathering where that's a big part of the goals and incentives of everybody from a branch manager to a corporate banker. Jane or Jim, what would you add? Jane? Go ahead.

Jane Grebenc (EVP and CRO)

I would guess that much of the growth that you're seeing in savings is almost a substitute product to CDs. As we've been bringing down the rates on CDs, customers aren't taking the money out of the bank, but they might be parking it in some money markets while they wait and see what happens here. I think we still have much of it in the house, but it's moving around a little bit.

Daniel Tomeo (Analyst)

All right. That makes sense. Thanks, Jane. Thanks, Mike. Appreciate the color today.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from the line of Frank Schiraldi with Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

Frank Schiraldi (Managing Director)

Hey, good afternoon. Just in terms of Jim, just in terms of the NIM guide, can you share what that assumes for do you anticipate deposit costs move lower from here without additional rate cuts, or is that continued kind of steady state given that you expect or trying to grow the deposit book?

Mike Price (President and CEO)

Yeah. Thanks, Frank, for asking. Because we talked about this on last quarter's call, appreciate the question. It gives me a chance to clarify a little bit. Last quarter, we talked about how we took a very conservative line with our ability to drop deposits because we thought we really, really want to grow deposits. We want to keep a loan-to-deposit ratio where it is in the low 90s. We want to fund that growth with the deposits. Mike just hinted at this a moment ago, our kind of pricing strategies are following that. Last quarter of the call, we were saying we're not assuming rates are going to fall on deposits. Lo and behold, in the first quarter, we were able to lower deposit costs by eight basis points, which is great.

Looking for their forecast for the rest of the year, I just reiterate the guidance from the first quarter. We're not assuming an ability to drop the deposit rates. In other words, if I look at the $199 of total cost of deposits right now, the assumption is that that holds fairly steady by the end of the year. When I say our NIM can get to the high 370s, that doesn't assume an ability to do it by dropping deposit costs. If we could drop deposit costs, it could be even better than that. There'd be upside to that. I would just add one more thought to that. Some of those assumptions on deposit costs, when we're looking at their historical betas and ability to drop deposits and need to fund it, were done before we saw a lot of competitors dropping rates.

What we have seen in our local market, what we see when we look at the peer reports for the quarter, this quarter is like last quarter, everybody is dropping rates. That is part of our story too in the first quarter. Jane was alluding to it a moment ago. When CDs mature, money markets are mature, we are able to present the customers with lower rates than they had, and people are staying. We have done well to keep all those maturities short. That rollover process is benefiting us now, just like everybody else. That assumption of not taking deposit rates down is probably very conservative. To the extent it is conservative and we are able to do better, that just gives us a little more upside to that NIM forecast. Hopefully, that is enough to help with what you are saying.

Frank Schiraldi (Managing Director)

Yeah. That's great. Just on that, does that NIM guidance you gave or outlook, that includes the Center deal?

Mike Price (President and CEO)

Yes. That includes the Center deal. I'll tell you, we're working on the marks of the Center deal right now. We are closing. We're going to get final numbers from them and then do the final work with our third party to do the marks. It's just not that significant to move the needle that much. It might be one or two basis points of that NIM forecast, but it's just not going to be that. It's helped with additives. Overall, look, we're very excited about the acquisition for lots of fundamental reasons. In terms of the NIM guidance, it's not that big enough to move the needle that much.

Frank Schiraldi (Managing Director)

Okay. Lastly, on buybacks, obviously, now that you've got the deal closed, it could change things. Just curious your appetite or thoughts, given the pullback in shares, on the use of buybacks as capital return here and any thoughts around sizing that as well. Thanks.

Mike Price (President and CEO)

Yeah. Yeah. I was watching the stock prices in the $14s. We thought this would be a great opportunity. We were out of the market. Now back up. We're going to come out of blackout here in a little bit, kind of opportunity. Our capital priorities haven't changed. We want to make sure we can capitalize growth and loan-performing organic growth. That's kind of the first priority. Increase the dividend, steady rate, which we did this year again. Then look for these buybacks where we return capital to shareholders. We generated excess capital after the dividend of $20 million last quarter, plus another $20 million of AOCI, which you can't count on every quarter. There's plenty of capital generation. We have not made any official decision to turn on the buyback.

We would look at all those factors in the second quarter to see if it's appropriate to do so.

Frank Schiraldi (Managing Director)

Okay. All right. Appreciate the color. Thank you.

Mike Price (President and CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from the line of Karl Shepard with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Karl Shepard (Assistant VP)

Hey. Good afternoon, guys.

Mike Price (President and CEO)

Good afternoon.

Karl Shepard (Assistant VP)

Jim, just to pick at the deposit cost guidance one more time.

Mike Price (President and CEO)

Yeah. Sure.

Karl Shepard (Assistant VP)

I just want to get it straight. The high 370s assumes a couple of cuts. You're saying stable deposit costs, even in buckets like savings or interest-bearing demand in that scenario. That seems very conservative to me. That's what I just want to make sure, it's not pricing or go ahead.

Mike Price (President and CEO)

It is. It is. Look, the whole bank are doing a reforecast exercise, actually, this month for the rest of the year. That guidance might change for the next quarter. There are a couple of things going on. I think the macro swaps alone get you halfway there to the NIM guidance. The rest of it is coming from positive replacement yields, even in a falling rate environment. Yeah, I agree with you. That assumption on the deposit costs might be conservative. You start to get on this avenue of the different categories. There are obviously mixed shifts going on within those categories. We are not saying that it is stable in every category across the board. That is the aggregate cost of deposits, which includes time and interest-bearing staying stable. We will revisit that assumption here and update guidance as the year goes on.

Karl Shepard (Assistant VP)

Okay. Sorry to pick at it. I know it's not the easiest thing to forecast. And you do your best every quarter.

Mike Price (President and CEO)

Yeah. Sorry. I anticipated the question. Thank you very much, Karl.

Karl Shepard (Assistant VP)

Kind of moving over to expenses. The FTEs kind of ticked up a little bit over the course of the quarter, I guess. Is there any more planned for the rest of the year? Is there anything else going on besides stripping out the incentive comp from last quarter and adding back Center that you want to flag for us?

Mike Price (President and CEO)

Yeah. The FTE is really an investment on probably half of it on the commercial side of the bank. Pretty pleased with the prospects of return there. I think part of it is also just filling vacancies in our financial solutions network. We are also going to look closely at costs here in the second quarter. Feels like the run rate is a little higher than it should be. We will probably be back to you perhaps in the next quarter or so with some opportunities there. Jim, what do you want to add?

Jim Reske (EVP, CFO, and Tresurer)

No. Just we're happy to be able to pick up talent where we can. We're able to do that in some select pockets in a commercial bank. That's a good addition to FTE. We've done some measures as well to make sure that our turnover rate is under control in our branch network. People like to work here and stay here. That helps the FTE count as well. That affects the FTE count as well.

Karl Shepard (Assistant VP)

Okay. Thank you both.

Mike Price (President and CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from the line of Kelly Matta with KBW. Please go ahead.

Kelly Matta (Analyst)

Hi. Good afternoon. Thanks for the question. Congrats on getting the deal to close so quickly. Following up on the expense question, maybe framing it in another way, you've talked about the new talent you've hired, two new presidents, and treasury management. Acknowledging that you are paying close attention to expenses. If there's any other areas where you think you might be opportunistic with adding talent.

Mike Price (President and CEO)

With adding talent, I think we've added to and bolstered our equipment finance group and our commercial banking teams. Not at the time. I think that we're pretty pleased with our fee businesses, our gain-on-sale businesses, the staffing we have there, and wealth management. And they're contributing nicely. Mortgage is probably up year over year in terms of originations and volume. They're probably not at that point or inflection point where you would consider adding to some of those consumer lending businesses. I think we're pretty good. We're going to be off-site on Monday. We're going to talk about getting better processes and how we improve the flow through our bank and our operations areas. We will become more efficient than we were this quarter.

Kelly Matta (Analyst)

Got it. That's helpful. On the SBA front, that gain-on-sale came in a bit this quarter. We've seen that at a couple of other banks. Wondering if you could share the drivers of that, if it was just pipeline there or gain-on-sale margins. Your outlook for this business is Q4 more of a normalized level? Would you anticipate this quarter to be a good run rate in the near term?

Mike Price (President and CEO)

We're a little perplexed by that. The SBA was going along pretty well. I think perhaps just the longevity of higher rates now on those borrowers that have just slightly more leverage perhaps is part of the answer. I guess I'll turn it over to Mike or Jane, who are closer to the business. Your thoughts?

Jane Grebenc (EVP and CRO)

Mike, do you want to go?

Mike Price (President and CEO)

Yeah. Sure. Go ahead.

Jane Grebenc (EVP and CRO)

A couple of things. We think that SBA gain-on-sale will be a bit frothier as the year progresses because of pipeline and the mix of deals that are in there. There are some construction deals in there that need to close before we can do anything with them. We have some larger projects in there that are just taking a bit longer to complete. It is not a question of margin. The gain-on-sale margin is right around where we expected it to be so far.

Kelly Matta (Analyst)

Got it. That's helpful. Maybe last question for me on the expense guidance. Just want to clarify that that includes the impact of the run rate of the acquisition and the timing of the conversion on that.

Mike Price (President and CEO)

Yes. Yes, it does.

Kelly Matta (Analyst)

Got it.

Mike McCuen (EVP and Chief Lending Officer)

Conversion is slated for the first weekend in June.

Mike Price (President and CEO)

Yeah. Kelly, actually, we gave some of that guidance on last quarter's call. I think you all reflected it. I saw it reflected in the consensus pretty well for the expense run rate.

Kelly Matta (Analyst)

Great. Thank you so much. I will step back.

Mike Price (President and CEO)

Thanks, Kelly.

Mike McCuen (EVP and Chief Lending Officer)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from the line of Matthew Breese with Stephens. Please go ahead.

Matthew Breese (Managing Director)

Hey. Good afternoon. Sorry to beat a dead horse here. The NIM outlook just sounds really robust. Jim, I was hoping you could maybe extend that outlook a little bit. Granted, there are more factors as we get into 2026. Is the outlook for the NIM into 2026 still kind of up and to the right? It depends a little bit on the forecast. In the flat rate forecast, which we did kind of bracket, what if there are no rate cuts at all, which is it stays where it is? Yeah, it is great in 2026. It keeps going. It gets to 380 and stays in the 380s. It actually hovers through the 380s in 2026, but ends 2026 in the high 380s. If we have this baseline forecast, you have the three cuts, then it stays right around 380.

Mike Price (President and CEO)

If it's a 379, it stays around 380 next year. It depends on that. Thanks for the question. It's a good opportunity to say there are other assumptions in there as well. There's no recession forecast in that. Part of the assumption in all these forecasts is that we're able to continue to grow loans, continue to put on new loans, at the rates that we assume that we're able to put them on, and that'll replace the runoff that we assume they're going to have with the lower rate loans. You get the nice benefit of that pickup and replacement yield. There's no compensated slowdown in any of that. There are other assumptions in there that are affecting them.

Mike McCuen (EVP and Chief Lending Officer)

There is.

Mike Price (President and CEO)

Just go ahead, Mike.

Mike McCuen (EVP and Chief Lending Officer)

Yeah. Just let me muse for a moment. I mean, if rates come down quicker than that, we're pretty broad-based in our offerings with consumer products that are on the sidelines, particularly consumer lending out of our branches, a good mortgage capability that we haven't dismantled. Those businesses could really turn on in an environment like that. I think our mortgage business made $10 million-plus a year for us. I think we're hedged that if rates go down and certain kinds of businesses pick up, we just don't feel like it would be a train wreck. In fact, we think if rates went down a little bit and the yield curve was upward sloping and it just spruced demand a little bit, we could have the best of both worlds on the consumer and the commercial banking side.

Matthew Breese (Managing Director)

I appreciate that. I mean, in my career, a handful of times you've seen a 4% NIM, usually not for very long. I'm curious if you think you start to see kind of competition erode margins as you hover in the 380s there.

Mike Price (President and CEO)

I suspect. I think we're a bank also that, I mean, we're about 19.5% fee income. Our peers are about 16.5%. Our top quartile is probably 2 percentage points better than that. We really need to get there. I mean, we've come a long way in a decade. We really need to be a better fee income bank. We've got to drive that through our regional business model, which we've put in place. We have good product offerings in wealth management, the gain-on-sale businesses, insurance, and other places. We just feel like we can get there and get that fee income up as well over time. That's just all blood, sweat, and tears and what Jane and Mike McCuen are good at and the teams. That's just execution.

Matthew Breese (Managing Director)

Understood. Could you help me out with new loan yields? What are you pricing? Or what is the blended rate on the pipeline? Are you starting to see competition erode margins anywhere? If so, to what extent?

Mike Price (President and CEO)

Yeah. I'll turn it over to Mike McCuen on that. I'd love to hear your response, Mike.

Mike McCuen (EVP and Chief Lending Officer)

I mean, the loan yields, as Jim alluded to, are coming in around 7 today. I will say that competitively, it feels like there's more competitive pressure today as folks are looking to grow loans. We have seen some slight moves down in margin and bids. Still pretty healthy overall. You can anticipate, I think, that as folks are looking to grow their portfolios, a little more pressure on that yield. It is still at a somewhat elevated level from where it has historically. We're just watching that closely as we select the right deals and the right clients.

Matthew Breese (Managing Director)

Got it. Okay. How much SBA exposure do you have on the balance sheet? Are you seeing anything notable credit trend-wise there over the last bunch of weeks, particularly post-terrace? Any notable exposures that might be more consumer-oriented? I'm thinking franchises and restaurants and things like that.

Mike Price (President and CEO)

Yeah. I'm going to turn it over to Brian Sohocki for that one. Great question.

Brian Sohocki (EVP and Chief Credit Officer)

I apologize. Can you just repeat the first part of it? You referenced a specific industry. I did not catch the wording.

Matthew Breese (Managing Director)

Yeah. I was looking for SBA exposure that's on the balance sheet, notable credit trends overall, and then specifically if there's exposure to some of the more consumer-oriented categories. I'm thinking franchises and restaurants.

Brian Sohocki (EVP and Chief Credit Officer)

Sure. No. Thank you. Thank you for repeating it. Yeah. The SBA portfolio is quite diverse. We do have one individual that focuses on franchise lending. We've had a number of parameters, a box built around that business to ensure that it's franchises with a broad depth of locations and experience. We've built boxes around it to ensure that there's additional liquidity on the balance sheet of the individual as they start that franchise. We feel pretty good about the business that we have in SBA for franchises. Beyond that, I wouldn't highlight any concentrations, retail or otherwise, that bring any concern. We sell the predominant share of our business. Those that are on the books came via acquisition. Or as I think Jane highlighted earlier, we do do a fair number of business expansion loans.

Those construction projects stay on the books until they're constructed and occupied. I feel I'm pretty good about the diversity of the book. Hopefully, that helps.

Mike Price (President and CEO)

Yeah. We have that for SBA footings on the balance sheet. We can probably get that for you by the end of the call.

Brian Sohocki (EVP and Chief Credit Officer)

Yeah.

Matthew Breese (Managing Director)

Okay. Just last one for me, Jim. As the swaps expire, what part of the average balance sheet are going to be affected by that? Sorry for the JV question. I am just trying to figure out the average balance sheet with that rolling off.

Jim Reske (EVP, CFO, and Tresurer)

The average balance sheet, the size won't change. I mean, the assets are there. The assets stay there. Right now, we're seeing the example. The one that's expiring tomorrow and counting down the days, $150 million. Right now, we have a receipt fixed swap. We're getting the spread, excuse me, plus 0.595%. That's the receipt fixed. We're receiving 0.595%. The day after tomorrow, we'll receive one month so far. We'll get a spread, whatever the spread is, plus one month so far, 4.327%. That $150 million is still on the books. It'll stay there. It's just going to pop up by the difference between 4.327% and 0.595%.

Matthew Breese (Managing Director)

Okay. So loan yields will be affected by that? Is that what you're saying?

Jim Reske (EVP, CFO, and Tresurer)

Correct.

Matthew Breese (Managing Director)

Okay.

Jim Reske (EVP, CFO, and Tresurer)

Correct. Loan yields. Yeah. I mean, that one swap alone is enough to add, what, $5.6 million a year in income, straight income.

Matthew Breese (Managing Director)

That's all I have. Thanks for taking my questions.

Jim Reske (EVP, CFO, and Tresurer)

You bet. Thank you so much.

Operator (participant)

Again, for any questions, press star one. Our next question comes from the line of Manuel Navas with DA Davidson. Please go ahead.

Manuel Navas (Senior Research Analyst)

Hey. I appreciate that the peak in kind of some of the credit issues was last year. Could you just kind of speak to the trend in provisioning from here and reserving?

Mike Price (President and CEO)

Yeah. I'll hand it over to Brian in a minute. We're about 1.32% reserve. I think about last year, we had about $30 million in charge-offs and $29.1 million in provisioning. As you would expect, it kind of matched our charge-offs. The first quarter is pretty good. Our charge-offs are down. Provisioning stayed high a little bit. Ideally, over the course of the year, they would match. We're already in a pretty good position. We're probably 7 basis points higher than our $10 billion-$100 billion peers on the reserve. We're in a good position there. We also feel like some of the acquired loans that we can see, the tail, the watch list, and everything starting to dissipate. We did not really feel a lot from our legacy portfolio or as much over the last few years. Brian, what would you add?

Brian Sohocki (EVP and Chief Credit Officer)

Yeah. I wouldn't add too much to the reserve outlook. I mean, I'd anticipate it to remain relatively stable. We experienced loan growth in the first quarter, both on the funded side and the unfunded construction side. We'll continue to show growth in the reserve based on that. Pending macroeconomic environment, we'll see changes in our kind of qualitative side. I think Mike covered most of it there.

Mike McCuen (EVP and Chief Lending Officer)

That's helpful. Just shifting topic for a second. With Center Bank closing, is there any kind of updated metrics with that one? I know it adds density to your Cincinnati footprint. Anything to update there? It's already in your guidance. Just maybe more qualitative how it helps with loan growth. Any further thoughts on the next transaction? Kind of what would you consider going forward if any of your interests have shifted or just stayed on the same disciplined process?

Mike Price (President and CEO)

I would just add on Center Bank. We've gotten some unexpected good talent from that organization. It's already integrated with our Regional President there, who are in the same space. That is really positive in terms of cohesion and culture. We get several good lenders that will hit the ground running and add to the team. Pretty excited about that. We've also felt like we got to the expense targets pretty easily and added some talent, even added some corporate talent to fill open positions throughout First Commonwealth Group. We're excited about that. I think that we can—Jim, you'll have to coach me here. If memory serves, it's kind of outsized accretive for the size. It was almost like 2.5%-3% accretive in 2026 for a bank that was pretty small. We're pretty high on it. We also think that market is just ripe for growth.

We have a number of our senior executives now that live in Cincinnati and have terrific brands there personally. I just really believe we could easily, over the next few years, rapidly increase our deposit and loan footings there. We just already have quality relationships with developers and other businesses. That is a great place to start. Regarding M&A, I mean, it is the full gamut. We have done smaller deals. They have tended to do very well for us. We have been very conservative, as you know, in terms of being pretty picky. Almost all of our deals have been strategic and really added to our geography, primarily Ohio, where a decade ago, we hardly had anything. Those markets have been the lion's share of our growth over the last 5 or 6 or last 10 years. I do not know that our appetite has changed much.

I think there might be more conversations in the offing the last six months or so. Jim, what am I missing?

Jim Reske (EVP, CFO, and Tresurer)

Nothing. I mean, nothing to add, Mike.

Jane Grebenc (EVP and CRO)

Hey, Mike. One thing to add with Center Bank. I thought you captured it all beautifully. The one really nice surprise—we expected all of the good stuff that we're going to get. The one really nice surprise was the caliber of the mortgage operation. We think that'll help us deliver the mission in Cincinnati. We think it'll help us grow the residential mortgage business as well as the home equity business and consumer businesses generally.

Mike Price (President and CEO)

Great comment, Jane. Thank you for that.

Brian Sohocki (EVP and Chief Credit Officer)

Hey, Mike. If I might just go back for a moment, the SBA balances on the book is about $165 million.

Mike Price (President and CEO)

I appreciate all the commentary. Thank you, guys.

Operator (participant)

That will conclude our question and answer session. I'll turn the call back to Mike Price for any closing comments.

Mike Price (President and CEO)

Hey, as always, we appreciate your interest in our company. We're excited about the future, growing our C&I businesses in our regions alongside what we feel like are great offerings in CRE, equipment finance, consumer offerings, mortgage. We also are a bank that has a granular depository, lots of households. We're anxious to grow our fee businesses as a percentage of our overall revenue, again, leveraging the regional model and our local teams and the relationships that we already have with clients. We also will be intentional and vigilant about our costs and continue to perform there as we have in the past. Thank you for your interest. We look forward to seeing a number of you over the course of the second quarter.

Operator (participant)

That will conclude today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.