FREEPORT-MCMORAN (FCX) Company Report

A September 8 mud-rush in PB1C of the Grasberg Block Cave halted operations, involving ~8% of active draw points and ~7% of year-to-date production, and damaged PB1C and adjacent PB1 South infrastructure.
Big Gossan and Deep MLZ mines restarted in late October, with a phased Grasberg restart: PB2 and PB3 in Q2 2026, PB1 South in mid-2027, and PB1C by end-2027.
Production for 2026 is projected to be similar to 2025, with significant increases in 2027–2029 as all operations are reestablished.
Remediation measures include mud cleanup, installation of five 15 m reinforced concrete plugs isolating PB1C, enhanced cave management, innovative mud-drainage solutions, and muon-imaging technology for improved monitoring.

Nov 18, 2025, 3:00 PM

Transcript

Freeport-McMoRan outlines Grasberg restart timeline and 2026–2029 production outlook

FCX

Guidance Update

New Projects/Investments

Following a September 8 mud-rush incident that tragically claimed seven lives, Freeport McMoRan will restart Grasberg Block Cave production blocks 2 and 3 in Q2 2026, resume PB1 south in mid-2027, and defer PB1C until end 2027.
Grasberg district production is expected to be flat in 2026 versus 2025, with “significant increases” from 2027–2029 as phased operations are fully restored.
Key risk-mitigation measures include installing multiple 15 m reinforced concrete plugs to isolate PB1C, deploying high-capacity dewatering drills, and trialing muon-based cave-shape imaging for enhanced monitoring.
Updated consolidated 2025–2027 sales guidance reflects the Grasberg ramp-up; at $5/lb copper, 2026 EBITDA is projected at ~$12 billion, rising to > $15.5 billion on average in 2027–2028, with capex for 2025–2026 deferred by ~$800 million into 2027+ and up to $700 million of insurance coverage available.

Nov 18, 2025, 3:00 PM

Transcript

Freeport-McMoRan updates on Grasberg incident and phased restart plans

FCX

Guidance Update

On September 8, a large-scale external mud rush in production block 1C at the Grasberg Block Cave—triggered by an undetected pathway between surface mud and underground draw points—resulted in seven fatalities and spurred a comprehensive safety and technical investigation.
Freeport will phase the Grasberg restart: production blocks 2 and 3 in Q2 2026; PB1 south by mid-2027; and PB1 C by end-2027, employing cement plugs to isolate affected panels and advanced mud-drainage methods.
The company’s 2026 production at Grasberg is forecast to be on par with 2025, with significant growth projected for 2027–2029 as all operations are reinstated.
Capital expenditures for 2025–2026 have been deferred by $800 million into 2027 and beyond to prioritize recovery efforts, with up to $700 million of underground losses covered by insurance.

Nov 18, 2025, 3:00 PM

Transcript

Freeport announces restart plans for Grasberg operations

FCX

Guidance Update

New Projects/Investments

In late October 2025, PTFI resumed production from the Deep Mill Level Zone and Big Gossan underground mines, with remediation underway for a phased restart of the Grasberg Block Cave in Q2 2026.
FCX expects 2026 PTFI production to approximate 1.0 billion lbs of copper and 0.9 million oz of gold, similar to 2025, ramping to average annual production of 1.6 billion lbs Cu and 1.3 million oz Au during 2027–2029.
The company is implementing enhanced safety and risk-management initiatives based on learnings from the September 2025 mud-rush incident, emphasizing safety as the top priority.
FCX will host a conference call with analysts on November 18, 2025 to review the incident and future operating plans.

Nov 18, 2025, 1:46 PM

8-K

Glencore revises 2025 copper guidance amid strong coal output

FCX

Guidance Update

Glencore narrowed its 2025 copper production guidance to 850,000–875,000 tonnes and cut cobalt and nickel targets after softer Q3 outputs.
The company raised its 2025 energy coal production outlook, reflecting strong traditional energy demand.
Through September 2025, copper output fell to 583,500 tonnes from 705,200 tonnes last year, while steelmaking coal production more than doubled to 24.7 million tonnes from 11.1 million tonnes, aided by the Elk Valley Resources acquisition.
Shares reached their highest level since January 2025, supported by a surge in copper prices amid global supply disruptions.

Oct 29, 2025, 9:53 AM

Bloomberg

Freeport-McMoRan updates on Grasberg mine incident

FCX

PT Freeport Indonesia located the five remaining team members from the September 8 mud rush incident; all were found deceased, bringing the total fatalities to seven (two found on September 20, five found October 5).
Mining operations in the Grasberg minerals district have been temporarily suspended since the September 8 incident to prioritize search and safety measures.
A preliminary assessment of potential production impacts was provided on September 24 and remains unchanged; a full investigation into the root cause is expected to conclude by year-end 2025.

Oct 6, 2025, 1:19 PM

8-K

Freeport updates on Grasberg mine incident

FCX

Five missing team members located on October 5 and found deceased, bringing total fatalities to seven following the September 8 mud rush at the Grasberg Block Cave mine.
The incident involved a sudden rush of approximately 800,000 metric tons of wet material entering multiple mine levels.
Mining operations in the Grasberg minerals district have been suspended since September 8, and an investigation with external experts is underway, expected to conclude by year-end 2025.
FCX has provided no updates to its preliminary production impact assessment issued on September 24, 2025.

Oct 6, 2025, 1:52 AM

Press Release

Freeport-McMoRan agrees 12% stake transfer to Indonesian government for Grasberg license extension

FCX

M&A

Freeport-McMoRan will transfer an additional 12% stake in PT Freeport Indonesia to the Indonesian government at no cost as part of securing an extension of its Grasberg mine operating license beyond 2041.
This transfer increases the government’s ownership from 51% to 63%, reinforcing its majority control over the Grasberg copper mine.
The agreement follows high-level talks in September 2025 between CEO Kathleen Quirk and Danantara head Rosan Roeslani in the United States.
The deal comes amid operational challenges at Grasberg, including recent flooding that led to force majeure, revised production forecasts, and an 18% drop in Freeport’s share price.

Sep 30, 2025, 10:39 AM

Bloomberg

Freeport-McMoRan provides update on PT Freeport Indonesia operations following mud rush

FCX

Guidance Update

Two team members were found fatally injured and five remain missing after the September 8 mud rush at the Grasberg Block Cave mine.
Approximately 800,000 metric tons of wet material entered the mine, leading to suspension of operations in the Grasberg minerals district since September 8.
An external expert-led investigation into the incident has been initiated and is expected to conclude by year-end 2025; PTFI is working closely with Indonesian authorities on the review and search efforts.
For the third quarter of 2025, consolidated sales guidance is 4% lower for copper and 6% lower for gold versus July 2025 estimates.

Sep 24, 2025, 2:08 PM

8-K

Freeport-McMoRan reports Q3 sales forecast cuts after Grasberg incident

FCX

Guidance Update

Dividends

Freeport-McMoRan cut its Q3 2025 copper sales forecast by 4% and gold by 6% versus July projections following a major operational disruption at its Grasberg mine.
A September 8 mud rush at Grasberg caused two fatalities, five missing workers and triggered a force majeure, suspending mine operations.
Grasberg output in 2026 could be 35% below pre-incident estimates; unaffected pits are set to restart by late 2025, with phased Grasberg ramp-up in H1 2026.
The company’s insurance covers up to $1 billion (with a $0.7 billion limit for underground incidents) and the board declared cash dividends payable November 3, 2025.

Sep 24, 2025, 1:04 PM

Barron's

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