Executive Summary

Q1 2025 delivered modest beats on revenue and EPS versus S&P Global consensus, with revenue $5.73B vs $5.47B and EPS $0.24 vs $0.23; EBITDA was broadly in line at ~$1.89B, supported by strong U.S. copper realizations and favorable gold pricing *.
Annual unit net cash cost guidance was lowered to $1.50/lb (from $1.60/lb in January), reflecting expected volume ramp in Indonesia and stronger by‑product credits; quarterly volumes and cash costs are guided to improve through the year, a positive inflection for margins and FCF .
Tariff dynamics are a key watch item: management flagged potential ~5% cost inflation on U.S. purchased inputs if proposed tariffs take effect, while a widening COMEX premium vs LME (~13%) is a tailwind to U.S. realizations and cash flow .
Indonesian downstream restart is on track: the smelter repairs are expected to restart in Q2 and fully ramp by year‑end; the precious metals refinery is ramping, and PTFI expects to meet 2025 sales targets under the current export permit, reducing execution risk .
Near‑term stock catalysts: evidence of volume ramp at PTFI and lower consolidated unit cash costs, stability of the COMEX premium, and clear tariff outcomes; management signaled openness to accelerating buybacks as FCF strengthens .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Copper sales volumes beat January guidance (872M lbs vs 850M) and benefited from a strong U.S. COMEX premium; Q1 average copper realization was $4.44/lb and gold $3,072/oz .
Guidance reset lower on costs: consolidated unit net cash costs guided to $1.50/lb for FY25, down from $1.60/lb in January, pointing to margin expansion as Indonesia volumes and by‑product credits improve .
Strategic execution: management emphasized leach innovation (target 300M lbs run‑rate by YE25) and Bagdad autonomous haulage conversion, underpinning U.S. cost reductions and scalable low‑capex growth .

What Went Wrong

Gold sales fell sharply (128k oz vs 568k YoY), pressured by shipment timing tied to export license renewal and PMR ramp, weighing on by‑product credits in Q1 .
Consolidated unit net cash costs rose YoY to $2.07/lb (from $1.51/lb), driven by lower Indonesia volumes and timing of gold shipments; U.S. unit costs were $3.11/lb vs $2.98/lb YoY .
Revenue and operating income declined YoY (revenue $5.73B vs $6.32B; operating income $1.30B vs $1.63B), reflecting reduced volumes and higher costs; operating cash flow slid to $1.06B (from $1.90B) .

Financial Results

Metric	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)	$6.79	$5.72	$5.73
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)	$0.36	$0.19	$0.24
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)	$0.38	$0.31	$0.24
Operating Income ($USD Billions)	$1.94	$1.24	$1.30
Operating Cash Flow ($USD Billions)	$1.87	$1.44	$1.06
Capital Expenditures ($USD Billions)	$1.20	$1.24	$1.17

Actual vs S&P Global consensus (oldest → newest):

Metric	Q1 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)	Est: $5.70*	Est: $5.99*	Est: $5.47*
	Act: $6.32	Act: $5.72	Act: $5.73
EPS (Primary) ($)	Est: $0.28*	Est: $0.22*	Est: $0.23*
	Act: $0.32	Act: $0.31†*	Act: $0.24
EBITDA ($USD Billions)	Est: $2.26*	Est: $2.11*	Est: $1.77*
	Act: $2.23*	Act: $2.11*	Act: $1.89 *

Notes: Values retrieved from S&P Global*. †S&P uses “Primary EPS”; Q4 2024 “actual” shown as adjusted EPS from company materials for comparability .

Segment snapshot (sales volumes, unit costs; Q1 2024 → Q1 2025):

Segment	Copper Sales (M lbs) Q1 2024	Copper Sales (M lbs) Q1 2025	Unit Net Cash Cost ($/lb) Q1 2024	Unit Net Cash Cost ($/lb) Q1 2025
United States	331	307	$2.98	$3.11
South America	284	275	$2.60	$2.40
Indonesia (PTFI)	493	290	$(0.12)	$0.64

Key KPIs (Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024):

KPI	Q1 2024	Q1 2025
Copper production (M lbs)	1,085	868
Copper sales (M lbs)	1,108	872
Avg copper realized ($/lb)	$3.94	$4.44
Gold sales (k oz)	568	128
Avg gold realized ($/oz)	$2,145	$3,072
Moly sales (M lbs)	20	20
Consolidated unit net cash cost ($/lb)	$1.51	$2.07
Operating cash flow ($B)	$1.90	$1.06
Capex ($B)	$1.25	$1.17
Total debt ($B)	$9.43	$9.40
Cash & equivalents ($B)	$5.21	$4.39

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance (Jan 2025)	Current Guidance (Apr 2025)	Change
Consolidated copper sales	FY 2025	~4.0B lbs	~4.0B lbs	Maintained
Consolidated gold sales	FY 2025	~1.6M oz	~1.6M oz	Maintained
Consolidated moly sales	FY 2025	~88M lbs	~88M lbs	Maintained
Unit net cash cost	FY 2025	$1.60/lb	$1.50/lb	Lowered
Operating cash flow	FY 2025	~$6.2B (at $4.00 Cu, $2,700 Au, $20 Mo)	~$7.0B (assumes $4.15 Cu, $3,000 Au, $20 Mo)	Raised (price‑assumption driven)
Copper sales	Q2 2025	N/A	~1.0B lbs	New detail
Gold sales	Q2 2025	N/A	~500k oz	New detail
Moly sales	Q2 2025	N/A	~22M lbs	New detail
Tariff cost impact (U.S. inputs)	2025 scenario	N/A	Potential ~5% increase; mitigation plans underway	Risk disclosure

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q3 2024, Q4 2024)	Current Period (Q1 2025)	Trend
Indonesia downstream ramp	Q3: Fire remediation, export continuity; PMR commissioning	Smelter repairs near completion; restart mid‑Q2; full ramp YE25; PMR ramping	Improving execution clarity
U.S. COMEX premium / tariffs	Q4: FY25 cost guide $1.60/lb; export duty mechanics; COMEX/LME context	COMEX ~13% premium to LME; ~$800mm annual cash flow tailwind; potential ~5% tariff passthrough risk	Premium widening; tariff risk assessed
Leach innovation & autonomy	Q3/Q4: 200M lbs run‑rate achieved in 2023; Bagdad 2x studies	Target 300M lbs run‑rate by YE25; Bagdad autonomous haulage conversion progressing (12/33 trucks)	Scaling initiatives
Cost trajectory	Q4: FY25 unit cash cost $1.60/lb; PTFI net credits expected	FY25 lowered to $1.50/lb; cost down driven by volumes/by‑products; U.S. cost roadmap to $2.50/lb by 2027	Positive inflection
Capital & buybacks	Q4: Capex ~$5.0B; $3.1B buyback capacity	Openness to accelerate buybacks as FCF strengthens; disciplined capital allocation	Potential acceleration

Management Commentary

Richard Adkerson: “Copper is an essential metal for the future and Freeport is foremost in copper… we are well positioned… to secure long‑term operating rights for this incredible asset” .
Kathleen Quirk: “Our quarterly copper sales volumes are expected to average about 20% more in the balance of the year… Gold sales… nearly 4x the first quarter rates… unit net cash costs… 30% lower on average in the remaining quarters” .
On U.S. tariff investigation: “COMEX… is currently approximately 13% above LME… implies an approximate $800 million bottom line annual financial benefit” .
On Bagdad autonomy: capex ~$80mm; enables efficiency gains and mitigates labor constraints, with potential to deploy across U.S. footprint .
On smelter: “Start‑up… will ramp up to 100% capacity over a 6‑month period and plan to run 2026 at 100% capacity” .

Q&A Highlights

Bagdad autonomous haulage: ~$80mm conversion cost; strategic to reduce staffing needs and improve safety/efficiency; U.S. target to lower unit costs toward ~$2.50/lb by 2027 .
Indonesia smelter and export permit: restart in May timeframe, ramp to full in ~6 months; sufficient export quota through September to meet FY25 sales targets; Q4 expected refining through Manyar and PT Smelting .
Tariffs: Potential ~5% cost pass‑through on U.S. purchased inputs; mitigation underway via supply chain diversification; ~40% of U.S. cost base not exposed (labor/services) .
Capital returns: Board supportive of buyback acceleration as cash flows rise from volumes, COMEX premium, and lower costs .
Leach scaling: multiple projects (helicopter‑placed irrigation, deep raffinate drilling, additive and heat trials) to reach 300M lbs run rate in 2025 and build path to 800M lbs longer term .

Estimates Context

Q1 2025: Revenue $5.73B vs $5.47B consensus; EPS $0.24 vs $0.23; EBITDA ~$1.89B vs ~$1.77B. Beat fueled by U.S. COMEX premium, favorable gold prices, and copper sales upside vs January guidance *.
Prior quarters: Q4 2024 revenue modest miss vs consensus (mix/volume), but adjusted EPS outperformed consensus; Q1 2024 had strong beats on both revenue and EPS .
Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Near‑term margin expansion: lower FY25 unit cash cost guidance ($1.50/lb) and improving volumes, particularly Indonesia, should compress costs and support EPS/FCF trajectory .
U.S. pricing tailwind vs tariff headwind: monitor persistence of COMEX premium (~13% over LME) and any finalized tariff pass‑through; net impact currently favors higher cash realization in U.S. .
Execution de‑risking: smelter restart and PMR ramp milestones reduce downstream risk; export permit coverage through September supports FY25 sales delivery .
Capital deployment optionality: stronger FCF with improving volumes/costs plus remaining buyback capacity ($3.0B) creates scope for accelerated repurchases if macro remains supportive .
Structural growth: scalable leach innovations and U.S. brownfield expansions (Bagdad, Lone Star) underpin medium‑term volume adds with attractive incentives at $3.50–$4.00/lb copper .
Watch gold and shipment timing: Q1 gold under‑shipments depressed by‑product credits; management expects normalization in balance of year, key to consolidated cost improvements .
Regional cost profiles: South America costs improved YoY (to $2.40/lb), while U.S. cost reductions rely on leach scaling and autonomy; Indonesia returns to net credits as volumes normalize .

Disclosures

S&P Global consensus values marked with an asterisk (*).
EBITDA for Q1 2025 referenced from company slides ; consensus/actuals where noted are from S&P Global*.

FREEPORT-MCMORAN INC (FCX)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary