Sign in

    FEDEX (FDX)

    Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Jan 10, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$256.38Last close (Jun 25, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$288.43Open (Jun 26, 2024)
    Price Change
    $32.05(+12.50%)
    • FedEx is successfully executing its transformation initiatives, including One FedEx, Network 2.0, and the DRIVE program, leading to significant cost savings of $2.2 billion in FY '25, which are structural and within their control, driving margin expansion and efficiency improvements. , ,
    • Positive revenue outlook with expected low to mid-single-digit growth in FY '25, driven by volume increases in deferred and e-commerce services, with e-commerce expected to outpace B2B growth, and anticipated modest improvement in demand environment. , ,
    • Strong confidence in upcoming peak season, backed by enhanced integration with major retailers, better data visibility, and effective asset and capacity alignment, expanding peak best practices globally, indicating robust operational execution and strong customer relationships.
    • FedEx faces a significant $500 million headwind due to the expiration of its contract with the United States Postal Service, which could impact revenues and profits in FY '25.
    • The company's Express segment is experiencing margin pressures, particularly in Europe, and there is a need for significant improvements to achieve margin expansion.
    • FedEx is undertaking a thorough assessment of FedEx Freight's role in the company's portfolio structure, indicating potential structural changes that could create uncertainty and affect operations.
    1. Potential LTL Spin-Off
      Q: Will you spin off or sell the LTL Freight business?
      A: The assessment of FedEx Freight in our portfolio is well underway. We'll analyze it thoroughly and will communicate when we have something to announce.

    2. DRIVE Cost Savings
      Q: Is the $2.2B DRIVE cost savings within your control?
      A: Yes, the $2.2 billion in structural cost reductions is fully within our control, and we are committed to achieving it regardless of the macro environment. We will adapt aggressively to changes in demand.

    3. European Operations Improvement
      Q: How important is the $600M improvement in Europe under DRIVE?
      A: It's very important and one of our top priorities. We're examining every aspect of our European operations, with new leadership and a focus on operational efficiencies. We're serious about the $600 million target and will keep you updated.

    4. USPS Contract Termination
      Q: How will the $500M USPS headwind affect your results?
      A: We are aggressively mitigating the $500 million Postal headwind, starting in Q2 and into Q3. Mitigation efforts should take hold in Q3 and beyond. We're planning to improve revenues year-over-year despite this headwind.

    5. Network Integration Risks
      Q: How are you mitigating risks in Network 2.0 integration?
      A: We have rigorous processes to ensure customer experience improves during integration. We've built in the right cadence so we can pause if needed, but haven't had to. Our service is strong, and we're capturing opportunities like single pickup for small businesses.

    6. Revenue Growth Expectations
      Q: What's driving your low to mid-single digit revenue growth?
      A: Revenue growth will be largely volume-driven, especially from deferred and e-commerce services. We expect e-commerce to outpace B2B growth. Speed is increasingly important, especially for Tier 1 brands, and we see volumes moving throughout the year.

    7. Express Margins Outlook
      Q: How will Express margins trend in fiscal '25?
      A: We're improving Express performance by aligning capacity with demand, having removed 31 aircraft in Q4. The Tricolor network restructuring enhances density and margins. Our DRIVE commitment includes a $600 million improvement over FY '23 baseline in Europe, critical for Express services in FY '25.

    8. Pricing Environment
      Q: What are you seeing in the current pricing environment?
      A: The market is competitive but rational. We've been disciplined in maintaining and building on yield increases from CY '22 and '23. We're focused on securing yields in the right areas, successfully obtaining peak surcharges and managing rural coverage and large packages.

    9. Demand and Macro Assumptions
      Q: What are your macro assumptions for volume growth?
      A: We're expecting moderate improvement this fiscal year. Forecasting B2B market growth around 2%, with e-commerce ahead of that. E-commerce as a percentage of retail was up 1% year-over-year in calendar Q1. Air cargo market growth expected around 4%. We'll monitor demand carefully.

    10. Tariffs and Trade Policy Impact
      Q: What's the risk to volumes if trade policies change?
      A: While e-commerce from China is significant, our revenue base is highly diversified. We have productive relationships with major Chinese e-commerce players, but no single carrier can meet all their needs. Shifting trade patterns favor us due to our global network, allowing us to adapt quickly to changes.

    Research analysts covering FEDEX.