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    FirstEnergy Corp (FE)

    Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Feb 27, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$38.54Last close (Feb 27, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$38.73Open (Feb 28, 2025)
    Price Change
    $0.19(+0.49%)
    • Significant Potential Upside from Data Center Growth: FirstEnergy has a significant pipeline of data center projects totaling over 5.5 gigawatts through 2029, which are not yet contracted and therefore not included in their current growth forecasts. As these projects become contracted, they could add approximately $350 million in capital investment, providing substantial upside to earnings and growth prospects. Additionally, data center activity is expected to rebound and contribute to load growth, particularly in Ohio and Maryland. , ,
    • Opportunities for Large-Scale Investment in West Virginia Generation: FirstEnergy plans to explore building new dispatchable generation in West Virginia to replace approximately 3,000 to 4,000 megawatts of retiring coal-fired generation between 2035 and 2040. This represents a potential investment of $4 billion to $6 billion over a 12- to 15-year period, supporting long-term growth and economic development opportunities.
    • Stable Returns and Strong Credit Metrics Support Growth and Dividend Outlook: The company expects to earn consolidated ROEs of 9.5% to 10%, aligning actual returns with allowed returns. They also anticipate maintaining an FFO/debt ratio above 14% going forward, supporting their investment-grade credit ratings. This financial stability enables FirstEnergy to continue growing its dividend in line with core earnings, which are projected to grow at a 6% to 8% compounded annual rate through 2029. , ,
    • Regulatory uncertainty in Ohio may impact FirstEnergy's earnings due to the lack of a procedural schedule in the Ohio rate case and the anticipation that the case will be fully adjudicated rather than settled. This could introduce regulatory risks and potential delays in rate adjustments. ("I think this one, given the complexity, the nature, the length of time and the like, I anticipate this one will be fully adjudicated. [...] We don't have a procedural schedule yet in the case, and we need to respond to the report 30 days from when it was issued, which was last Friday." , )
    • FirstEnergy's pension plan is underfunded at about 84%, with asset performance lower than expected in the past year. This underfunding may lead to increased pension contributions in the future, impacting cash flows and financial flexibility. ("We ended the year at about 84% funded. [...] The asset performance in the plan this year was lower than we had expected, which more than offset the lower liability associated with higher interest rates." )
    • The company anticipates significant future capital expenditures, notably $4 billion to $6 billion for new generation in West Virginia over a 12- to 15-year period. Funding this investment may require equity financing, leading to potential dilution for shareholders. ("If you look at 3,000 to 4,000 megawatts of combined cycle, I think you're talking $4 billion to $6 billion potential spend [...] we would use debt and we would also use a combination of equity and equity-like instruments." )
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Revenue (Income Statement)

    +95% (from $3,146M in Q4 2023 to $6,128M in Q4 2024)

    A dramatic revenue jump is observed, likely due to the recovery of previously deferred items, increased regulated revenue elements, and a broadened revenue base that incorporates new or reclassified income streams compared to the prior period.

    Operating Income

    ~+8% (from $568M to $613M)

    Modest improvement in operating income reflects the positive impact of increased revenues coupled with controlled operating expenses, although higher expense items (such as restoration and management costs) prevented margin expansion from keeping pace with the near‐doubling of revenue.

    Net Income

    +36% (from $192M in Q4 2023 to $261M in Q4 2024)

    A 36% increase in net income is driven by the stronger revenue performance and improved cost management, which helped boost bottom‐line profitability relative to the previous period's figures, indicating more efficient earnings conversion despite a higher expense base in some areas.

    EPS – Basic

    +50% (from $0.30 to $0.45)

    The 50% rise in Basic EPS results from the significant net income improvement and the dilution effects being favorable over the period, reflecting both operational improvements and possibly lower cost pressures that enhanced per-share profitability compared to Q4 2023.

    Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)

    +440% (from $112M in Q4 2023 to $608M in Q4 2024)

    A dramatic 440% rise in D&A primarily indicates a much larger asset base and accelerated depreciation related to extensive recent capital investments and adjustments in regulatory asset deferrals – factors that were less significant in the previous period.

    Adjustments for Non-Cash Items

    +720% (from $207M in Q4 2023 to $1,694M in Q4 2024)

    The 720% surge in non-cash adjustments is attributable to large-scale remeasurements and deferred expense recognition which were minimal in Q4 2023; these adjustments signal a shift towards recognizing previously deferred items and valuation changes as part of the current period’s accounting.

    Capital Expenditures (CapEx)

    Swing from +$1,004M in Q4 2023 to –$6,766M in Q4 2024

    A significant swing in CapEx reflects a strategic change from capital spending to asset dispositions or capital recycling initiatives; the negative value in Q4 2024 suggests that asset sales or returns of capital are being recognized, a stark contrast to the previous period’s heavy outlay.

    Revenue Segmentation (by business segment)

    Nearly flat overall; key segments declined: Distribution –38%; Stand-Alone Transmission –28%

    While overall consolidated segmented revenue remained nearly unchanged, the considerable declines in the Distribution (–38%) and Stand-Alone Transmission (–28%) segments indicate a shift in the revenue mix – likely due to regulatory rate adjustments, reclassifications, or changes in customer mix, with growth possibly absorbed by other segments not showing such steep declines.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Core EPS Guidance

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    $2.40 to $2.60 per share

    no prior guidance

    Core Earnings Growth Rate

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    6% to 8%

    no prior guidance

    Capital Investment Plan

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    $5 billion in 2025; increasing to $6.4 billion by 2028 with 9% growth

    no prior guidance

    Dividend Guidance

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    $1.78 per share

    no prior guidance

    Debt Financing Plan

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    8 transactions approximating $3.6 billion, with $2 billion in new money requirements

    no prior guidance

    Return on Equity (ROE)

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    9.5% to 10%

    no prior guidance

    MetricPeriodGuidanceActualPerformance
    Operating EPS
    FY 2024
    $2.61 to $2.71 per share
    $1.70 total (calculated from Q1–Q4 2024 EPS: 0.44+ 0.08+ 0.73+ 0.45)
    Missed
    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Regulatory uncertainty in Ohio

    Q2 discussions focused on unclear aspects of ESP V and an ongoing base rate case ( ); Q1 mentioned audit cases and traditional base rate case filings to resolve issues ( )

    Q4 emphasized no regulatory overhang, clear separation of legacy issues from rate proceedings, and constructive auditor feedback ( )

    Improved regulatory clarity and reduced uncertainty over time, with a more reassuring regulatory environment in Q4.

    Capital investments and grid modernization initiatives

    Q2 featured the launch of a $26B Energize365 program, partial Grid Mod II settlement filings, and LTIP 3 filings in Pennsylvania ( ); Q1 discussed CapEx increases and grid modernization initiatives including Grid Mod II settlements ( )

    Q4 highlighted an expanded Energize365 program increased to $28B, approved Grid Mod II settlement in Ohio, and continued investments in Pennsylvania and New Jersey ( )

    Consistent aggressive investment with growing scale; sentiment remains strongly bullish on grid modernization and future growth.

    Legal and regulatory investigations with legacy issue resolution

    Q2 provided detailed updates on DPA completion, SEC settlement, and OOCIC resolution efforts with associated reserves ( ); Q1 discussed ongoing legacy investigations with plans for resolution through settlements and tracking mechanisms ( )

    Q4 noted that several Ohio legacy proceedings were resolved and that legacy issues were now being clearly separated from traditional rate matters ( )

    Legacy issues have been de-emphasized as resolutions progress, shifting focus to future priorities.

    Data center growth and load expansion opportunities

    Q2 emphasized a surge in load study requests, transmission opportunities (e.g., PJM Open Window 3), and moderate incremental load impacts ( ); Q1 described geographic expansion and proactive transmission investments with notable customer engagement ( )

    Q4 underscored strong data center demand with 2.6 GW contracted and a robust pipeline, projecting incremental CapEx and load growth especially in Ohio and Maryland ( )

    Continued optimism and a growing pipeline, indicating sustained and expanding opportunities for load growth.

    West Virginia generation investment for replacing retiring coal assets

    Q2 discussed an “all of the above” approach with openness to combined cycle and solar as part of the IRP ( ); Q1 mentioned the possibility of building generation assets if requested by the state ( )

    Q4 provided a clearer strategy with planned retirement of 3,000 MW of coal and a proposal to develop 3,000–4,000 MW of combined cycle generation, with potential investments of $3–6 billion ( )

    More defined and strategic investment planning with a clearer commitment to replacing retiring coal, indicating increasing focus on long-term generation needs.

    Pension underfunding and financial flexibility risks

    Q2 focused on initiating a second pension lift‐out to address the remaining $700M nonregulated liability ( ); Q1 discussed mechanisms and prior lift-outs to reduce volatility and manage pension liabilities ( )

    Q4 reported a pension plan at 84% funded and highlighted completed lift-outs (totaling ~$1.4B) that have reduced volatility despite lower asset performance ( )

    Consistent risk mitigation through pension lift-outs and tracking, maintaining financial discipline around pension-related risks.

    Financing challenges and potential equity dilution

    Q2 emphasized limited balance sheet capacity (less than 5% of CapEx), equity needs up to $100M annually, and debt reduction progress ( ); Q1 pointed to a strong equity raise ($7B over several years) that eliminated the need for further equity issuance for the base investment plan ( )

    Q4 noted financing challenges due to incremental investments (e.g., a potential $350M for data centers) and rising interest rates, but overall financing for the base plan remains stable ( )

    Financing pressures persist in light of high CapEx, yet a strong balance sheet and careful regulatory recovery strategies keep equity dilution risks low.

    Stable financial metrics and dividend growth outlook

    Q1 highlighted strong operating earnings guidance, a dividend increase of 6.25%, and a solid balance sheet post-equity raise ( ); Q2 did not provide explicit details on these metrics

    Q4 reported stable FFO to total debt at 14% and a dividend outlook of $1.78 per share in 2025, reinforcing steady dividend growth (6–8% CAGR) over the planning horizon ( )

    Stable and positive financial metrics continue, supporting a predictable dividend growth outlook and investor confidence.

    DOE funding initiatives for grid enhancement technologies

    Q1 mentioned pursuing approximately $500M from DOE’s GRIP program for distributed energy management, AMI, grid resilience, and energy storage projects ( )

    Q4 contained no reference to DOE funding initiatives

    This topic is no longer mentioned in later periods, suggesting it may have been deprioritized or integrated into broader grid modernization initiatives.

    1. 2025 Earnings Growth Guidance
      Q: Where are you within the 6%-8% growth for '25?
      A: Management anticipates being in the 6%-8% range beginning in 2025 through 2026 and for the full investment horizon. They will be disappointed if they don't end at the upper end of that range. The O&M changes are mainly due to the Pennsylvania base rate case settlement, and they're focused on O&M discipline while spending committed dollars in Pennsylvania.

    2. Ohio Rate Case and Audit Report
      Q: Thoughts on settling the Ohio rate case after audit report?
      A: While they always prefer to settle cases, they anticipate that the Ohio rate case will be fully adjudicated due to its complexity. They see no regulatory overhang and expect a constructive outcome, similar to past cases. They will respond to the Blue Ridge audit report in the next 30 days.

    3. Balance Sheet and FFO to Debt Ratio
      Q: Path to achieving 14% FFO to debt target?
      A: By stripping out unique 2024 items like the $120 million SEC payment and storm costs, they approach 14% in 2025. Adding the impact of the Pennsylvania rate case and new cash flows, they plan to be slightly above 14% this year and believe it's sustainable going forward.

    4. Transmission Projects and Investment Plans
      Q: Are PJM-selected projects reflected in current plan?
      A: Their share of the projects is about $675 million, mostly within FET. The CapEx funded by FirstEnergy companies is in their plan, while the JV's off-balance-sheet CapEx isn't in the capital plan. All projects awarded are included in their financial plan.

    5. Potential Equity Issuance and Funding
      Q: What could change the no equity issuance plan?
      A: They're targeting over 100 basis points of cushion in the metrics. Incremental capital, like $350 million from contracted data center demand, could be funded with a portion of equity depending on project specifics. They'll consider various financing options based on the nature of the CapEx.

    6. West Virginia Generation Opportunities
      Q: Size and timing of WV generation investment?
      A: With 3,000 MW of coal generation retiring between 2035 and 2040, they could begin investing in years 4 or 5 of the current plan, spending $4 to $6 billion over 12-15 years on 3,000-4,000 MW of combined cycle. They would fund this using cash flow, debt, and equity instruments.

    7. Earnings Assumptions and ROE
      Q: Is 9.5%-10% ROE assumed in 6%-8% EPS growth?
      A: Yes, they're assuming a consolidated earned ROE of 9.5% to 10%, excluding holding company activity. For Ohio, they expect to earn close to their allowed return, anticipated to be 9.5% to 10.5% post-rate case.

    8. Bill Headroom and Customer Affordability
      Q: Latest thoughts on bill headroom post auctions?
      A: Their rates are at or below in-state peers, representing less than 5% of customers' share of wallet. They're focused on keeping bills affordable through O&M discipline and believe they have a strong position relative to peers.

    9. Dividend Growth
      Q: How should we think about dividend growth?
      A: Despite the payout ratio being slightly above the target range, they expect the dividend to grow with core earnings. They anticipate staying close to or within the 60%-70% payout range going forward.

    10. Pension Funding Status
      Q: Update on pension funded status at year-end?
      A: They ended the year about 84% funded, flat to slightly down from last year. Lower-than-expected asset performance offset the liability reduction from higher interest rates.

    11. Demand Trends and Load Growth
      Q: Details on underlying demand trends?
      A: Residential demand was affected by energy efficiency programs in Pennsylvania. Industrial sector saw temporary declines due to steel customers offline but is expected to rebound, especially with data center activity in Ohio and Maryland.