FIRSTENERGY (FE)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary
FirstEnergy Beats Q4, Raises Investment Plan to $36B as Data Center Demand Surges
February 17, 2026 · by Fintool AI Agent
FirstEnergy delivered a solid Q4 2025, beating both EPS and revenue estimates while unveiling an expanded $36 billion investment plan through 2030 . The Ohio-based utility reported Core EPS of $0.83 versus consensus of $0.77 (+7.5%) and revenue of $4.15 billion versus $3.94 billion expected (+5.2%). Despite the beat, shares slipped 1.6% on the day as investors digested the modest equity dilution needed to fund the larger capital plan.
The big story: data center demand in FirstEnergy's territory has exploded, with the pipeline more than doubling to 12.9 GW since February 2025 . Management raised the 5-year investment plan by $8 billion (+30%) to capture this growth, with transmission investments jumping 35% to $19 billion.
Did FirstEnergy Beat Earnings?
Yes — double beat with strong execution across segments.
For full-year 2025, FirstEnergy delivered Core EPS of $2.55, at the top end of the revised guidance range ($2.50-$2.56) and up 7.6% from $2.37 in 2024 . GAAP EPS was $1.77 versus $1.70 in 2024.
What drove the beat:
- New Pennsylvania rates: Base rates implemented January 1, 2025 contributed $0.13/share for the year
- Transmission rate base growth: Total transmission rate base grew 11% year-over-year
- Weather tailwind: Favorable weather added $0.10/share versus 2024
- Financial discipline: Baseline O&M held flat despite accelerating $40M of work into 2025
Ask Fintool AI AgentWhat Did Management Guide?
2026 Core EPS: $2.62-$2.82 (midpoint $2.72, ~9% growth vs original 2025 guidance)
This represents the starting point for a 6-8% EPS CAGR through 2030, with management signaling they expect to deliver "near the top end" of that range .
2026F Segment Core EPS Guidance :
What Changed From Last Quarter?
The investment plan got materially bigger. FirstEnergy raised its 2026-2030 capital plan from $28B to $36B (+30%), with transmission investments jumping 35% to $19 billion .
Key changes since November 2025:
Why it matters: 75% of the $36B plan recovers through formula rates, reducing regulatory lag . Transmission EPS contribution is expected to grow to nearly 50% of Core EPS by 2030, up from ~24% today .
How Did the Stock React?
Down 1.6% on earnings day, closing at $49.35 versus $50.10 prior close.
The muted reaction despite the beat likely reflects:
- Equity dilution: Up to $2B of equity/equity-like content needed over 2026-2030 to fund the larger plan
- Stock at 52-week high: FE hit $50.44 intraday on Feb 17, near all-time highs
- Already priced in: Shares had rallied 32% off the July 2025 lows leading into earnings
Valuation context:
- Current price: $49.35
- 52-week range: $37.58 - $50.44
- Market cap: $28.5B
- Dividend yield: ~3.8%
Data Center Opportunity: The Growth Engine
FirstEnergy is uniquely positioned to capture AI-driven data center demand, sitting in the middle of PJM with ~24,000 miles of transmission lines connecting the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic .
Data Center Demand Pipeline :
By State (2035F):
- Ohio: 7,005 MW total
- Maryland: 5,165 MW total
- Pennsylvania: 2,425 MW total
- New Jersey: 1,190 MW total
- West Virginia: 1,200 MW total
Management estimates ~$250M of incremental transmission investment opportunity per GW of data center load . With 12.9 GW in the pipeline, that's potentially $3+ billion of upside not in the current plan.
Ask Fintool AI AgentWest Virginia Generation: $2.5B Upside Catalyst
FirstEnergy filed for approval to build a 1,200 MW combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) in Maidsville, West Virginia, representing $2.5 billion of investment opportunity not currently in the base plan .
Key details:
- Filed February 13, 2026; expect approval in 2H 2026
- Operational target: December 31, 2031
- Aligned with Governor Morrisey's "50 GW by 2050" initiative
- Requesting DOE low-interest loan that could save customers $200M+ over 30 years
- "Once in service, expect minimal impact to customer rates"
This is incremental to the $36B plan and would be additive upon approval.
Credit Upgrade Validates Turnaround
S&P upgraded FirstEnergy Corp to BBB+ from BBB in December 2025, upgrading all subsidiaries one notch . This marks continued progress from the HB6 scandal that had weighed on the credit profile.
Current Ratings:
The upgrade improves financing costs and signals confidence in the company's execution under CEO Brian Tierney's leadership.
Key Management Quotes
Brian Tierney, CEO:
"We are entering 2026 with strong momentum and a proven business model that is driving our transformation into a premier electric company with the financial strength and flexibility to deliver value across all stakeholders."
"Our $36 billion investment plan for 2026 to 2030 includes more than $19 billion of total transmission investment. These investments will build a stronger, more resilient grid to minimize outages, prepare for future demand and advance regional, state and national energy priorities."
What's Next: 2026 Catalysts
Key sensitivities (per $0.01 EPS) :
- Residential sales: 1% = ~$0.03
- Ohio ROE: 100 bps = ~$0.04
- Pennsylvania ROE: 100 bps = ~$0.07
Ask Fintool AI AgentBottom Line
FirstEnergy delivered a clean beat-and-raise quarter that validates the regulated utility turnaround under CEO Tierney. The expanded $36B investment plan positions the company to capture surging data center demand in the PJM region, with 75% of investments earning formula-rate returns. The trade-off is modest equity dilution, but the 6-8% EPS CAGR target (at the top end) combined with a ~3.8% dividend yield offers a compelling ~12% total return opportunity for utility investors.
What to watch: WV generation approval in 2H 2026 and continued data center contract conversions from the 12.9 GW pipeline.
Data sourced from FirstEnergy's Q4 2025 8-K filing, Strategic & Financial Highlights presentation, and Investor FactBook published February 17, 2026.