FF
FIRST FINANCIAL BANCORP /OH/ (FFBC)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Delivered solid Q3: diluted EPS $0.75 (adjusted $0.76), ROA 1.54%, NIM (FTE) 4.02%, and record total revenue $234.0M; record noninterest income $73.5M, strong credit (NCOs 0.18% annualized) and higher TCE (8.87%) .
- Versus S&P Global consensus, EPS was a modest beat (+$0.01) while S&P-defined revenue missed (actual $224.8M vs $229.5M); company-reported “total revenue” was $234.0M, reflecting definitional differences between S&P and company reporting (see Estimates Context) . Q3 EPS consensus 0.75*, Revenue consensus $229.45M*; S&P actuals: EPS 0.76*, Revenue $224.83M*.
- Outlook: management guided Q4 NIM (FTE) to 3.92–3.97% (including ~2 bp from Westfield), fee income $77–79M (FX $18–20M; leasing $21–23M), noninterest expense $142–144M (includes ~$8M from Westfield), credit costs similar to Q3, and mid‑single‑digit annualized loan growth ex‑Westfield .
- Strategic catalysts: regulatory approval for Westfield (expected close Nov 1; subsequently announced), with BankFinancial targeted for early Q1’26; dividend maintained at $0.25 per share, underscoring capital strength .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Record fee income and diversified engines: “We achieved record revenue… driven by a robust net interest margin and record noninterest income… adjusted noninterest income representing 31% of total net revenue” (CEO) .
- Margin resilience: NIM (FTE) 4.02% (down only 3 bp q/q) as asset yields were maintained and funding costs moderated; ROATCE a strong 19.11% .
- Capital and book value accretion: Tangible book value per share rose to $16.19 (+5% q/q), TCE 8.87% (10.15% ex‑AOCI) .
What Went Wrong
- Loan balances missed internal expectations: end‑of‑period loans fell $71.6M, driven by lower specialty production and a higher mix of construction originations that fund over time (management expects rebound in Q4) .
- Slight margin compression and higher incentive comp: NIM (FTE) down 3 bp q/q; noninterest expenses +4.5% q/q due to incentives tied to record fee income .
- Mixed vs Street: S&P-defined revenue below consensus (see Estimates Context), despite company-reported “record total revenue” .
Financial Results
Headline results vs prior periods and estimates
Consensus vs actual (S&P Global)
Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.
Noninterest income breakdown
Credit KPI snapshot
Capital & book value
- CET1 12.91%, Total capital 15.32%, TCE 8.87% (10.15% ex‑AOCI); Tangible book value/share $16.19 .
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We achieved record revenue in the third quarter driven by a robust net interest margin and record noninterest income. We have successfully maintained asset yields, while moderating our funding costs…” — Archie Brown, CEO .
- “Third quarter fee income was another record, led by our leasing and foreign exchange businesses… Non-interest expenses increased from the linked quarter due to an increase in incentive compensation, which is tied to fee income.” — Jamie Anderson, CFO .
- “Excluding Westfield, we expect loan growth to be in the mid-single digits… We expect [Q4] NIM to be in a range between 3.92% and 3.97%… fee income to be between $77M and $79M… non-interest expense… $142M to $144M.” — CEO (Outlook) .
Q&A Highlights
- NDFI exposure: ~$434M diversified portfolio anchored in high‑IG credits; REITs ~$304M across 46 notes; securitizations ~$73M with S&P‑methodology structures; no adversely rated credits (Chief Credit Officer) .
- Margin sensitivity: ~5 bp NIM pressure per 25 bp Fed cut; Q4 margin starts ~3.90% legacy, with purchase accounting from Westfield mitigating some pressure (CFO) .
- Growth drivers: Expect Q4 growth led by Commercial and Summit; CRE modest growth; Oak Street under payoff pressure (CEO) .
- Deposit competition and costs: Took decisive actions post‑rate cut; expect deposit costs to decline in Q4; BankFinancial’s lower funding cost profile supportive longer term (CEO/CFO) .
- Fee outlook: Bannockburn (FX) expected to peak in Q4; do not annualize; 2026 run‑rate ~$65–70M for FX business (CFO) .
- Capital & buybacks: TCE to dip ~120 bp on Westfield close (all‑cash); reassess buybacks in 2–3 quarters; consider if trading ≤1.5x TBV (CFO) .
- Deposit seasonality: Public funds typically add ~$150–200M in May/Nov and reverse next quarter (CFO) .
Estimates Context
- S&P Global consensus for Q3 2025: EPS $0.75* (actual $0.76*), Revenue $229.45M* (S&P‑defined actual $224.83M*). Company-reported “record total revenue” was $234.0M, reflecting a different revenue definition (company “net revenue” = NII + noninterest income) .
- Q4 2025 S&P consensus: EPS ~$0.787*, Revenue ~$249.0M*.
Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.
Implication: modest EPS beat; revenue miss on S&P’s definition. Given management’s Q4 guide (NIM drift lower, higher fee income), Street estimates for mix (net interest vs fees) may need recalibration towards stronger fee contribution .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Quality quarter with diversified engines: resilient 4.02% NIM and record fees led to $234M total revenue and $0.75 EPS, with strong ROA/ROATCE and stable credit—supportive for comp multiples .
- Mix shift tailwind: management guides higher Q4 fees ($77–79M) and stable credit costs; traders should watch FX and leasing cadence as key swing factors .
- Near‑term NIM pressure manageable: ~5 bp per 25 bp cut offset by Westfield purchase accounting; deposit cost actions and seasonal inflows help fund loan growth .
- Loan growth set to reaccelerate in Q4 after a modest Q3 dip; commercial and Summit are primary drivers; watch Oak Street payoff dynamics .
- Capital intact despite M&A: CET1 12.91% and TBV accretion continue; buybacks could re‑enter the conversation post‑integration if valuation ≤1.5x TBV (monitor) .
- Corporate actions: Westfield closed early Q4 per plan, BankFinancial targeted Q1’26; synergy realization modeled mid‑’26—medium‑term earnings uplift story .
- Dividend maintained at $0.25 per share (4Q payment 12/15), signaling confidence in capital and earnings durability .
Citations:
Press release and financials: **[708955_20251023CL04349:0]** **[708955_20251023CL04349:1]** **[708955_20251023CL04349:5]** **[708955_20251023CL04349:6]** **[708955_20251023CL04349:7]** **[708955_20251023CL04349:8]** **[708955_20251023CL04349:9]** **[708955_20251023CL04349:10]** **[708955_20251023CL04349:11]** **[708955_20251023CL04349:16]** **[708955_20251023CL04349:17]**
8‑K and slide guidance: **[708955_0000708955-25-000097_a8k3q25earningsreleaseex991.htm:1]** **[708955_0000708955-25-000097_a8k3q25earningsreleaseex991.htm:11]** **[708955_0000708955-25-000097_a8k3q25earningsreleaseex991.htm:14]** **[708955_0000708955-25-000097_a8k3q25earningsreleaseex991.htm:24]** **[708955_0000708955-25-000097_exh992earningsrelease3q2.htm:6]**
Q2’25 press release: **[708955_20250724CL36176:0]** **[708955_20250724CL36176:5]** **[708955_20250724CL36176:6]** **[708955_20250724CL36176:7]** **[708955_20250724CL36176:8]** **[708955_20250724CL36176:11]**
Q1’25 press release: **[708955_20250424CL70976:0]** **[708955_20250424CL70976:1]** **[708955_20250424CL70976:6]** **[708955_20250424CL70976:8]** **[708955_20250424CL70976:14]**
Dividend PR: **[708955_20251028CL09313:0]**
Earnings call transcript: **[0000708955_2202107_2]** **[0000708955_2202107_3]** **[0000708955_2202107_4]** **[0000708955_2202107_5]** **[0000708955_2202107_6]** **[0000708955_2202107_7]** **[0000708955_2202107_8]** **[0000708955_2202107_9]**
S&P Global estimates: Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.